Tag: DVOA

Cowboys have edge in key win indicators, but can they stop WFT momentum?

WFT leads the league in third-down conversions since Wk 7 while the Cowboys are second overall in conversion defense. Who has the edge in advanced stats? | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The 8-4 Dallas Cowboys will face the 6-6 Washington Football Team in an intra-division battle with playoff implications on the line. The Cowboys will make their second consecutive road trip, following a win against the New Orleans Saints.  Currently on track for the fourth seed in the NFC, the Cowboys will want to continue to add distance from the rest of the division and a win against Washington would go a long way towards clinching a playoff spot.  The Cowboys currently have a 99.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 94.2% chance to win the division.

Their magic number to clinch the division is four.

Washington will enter Sunday riding a four-game winning streak.   With wins over the Tampa Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders, WFT has been able to find new life from a defense that struggled early in the season, and a rejuvenated running game.  WFT did receive news that defensive end Montez Sweat will miss the game due to COVID-19. This game starts their five-game stretch against NFC East opponents to close out the season.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how these two rivals measure up using DVOA, EPA, ANY/A and Toxicity. Will the Cowboys be able to move one step closer to clinching a divisional title or will WFT be able to close the gap?

Advanced Stat Notebook- Cowboys have edge in DVOA but EPA too close to call

When looking at the advanced metrics for Week 13, they favor the Cowboys but the margins are too close to call. Here’s a look at DVOA, EPA, Toxicity, ANY/A and Success Rate. From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will head to New Orleans to play the Saints on Thursday Night Football.  Entering Week 13 with a 7-4 record, the Cowboys will look to bounce back from a Thanksgiving Day overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games to the AFC West, but will now face conference opponents for the remainder of the season.  There were a lot of additions and losses this week that are worth noting:  CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Demarcus Lawrence will return from injury while Terrance Steele, Mike McCarthy and five assistant coaches will miss the game due to COVID-19.

The New Orleans Saints currently have a 5-6 record and have lost four straight games.  The Saints played on Thanksgiving as well, losing 31-6 to the Buffalo Bills. The big news for the Saints this week is that Taysom Hill has taken first team snaps at practice at quarterback and is expected to start this week.  Head coach Sean Payton has not officially announced Hill as the starter over Trevor Siemian as they are monitoring Hill’s foot injury at practice.  They are expecting Alvin Kamara to return for the Cowboys game as well.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Toxicity aside, Cowboys enjoy advanced stat edge over Raiders in Week 12

Who’s more toxic? That team from the desert might have a chance when it comes to the big play, but does Dallas win out overall? | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Las Vegas Raiders Thursday afternoon as part of their annual NFL Thanksgiving showcase. The Cowboys all-time record on Thanksgiving sits at 31-21-1. Recent Thanksgiving games haven’t gone well for Dallas, with their last win happening in 2018 against the Washington Football Team.  The Cowboys and Raiders have played two times on Thanksgiving, 2009 and 2013, with Dallas winning both times.

The Cowboys enter this week with a 7-3 record after falling to the Kansas Chiefs in a 19-9 game that saw the offense struggle to move the ball consistently.  This will be the fourth and final game against the AFC West division, with the Cowboys currently holding a 1-2 record with a strong road win against the Los Angeles Chargers and two ugly losses against the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.  The Cowboys are looking for their eighth win of the season and a winning record against the AFC, after beating New England in Week 6.

Quarterback Dak Prescott will be without one of his top weapons again with Amari Cooper missing his second game due to COVID-19.  They may be without CeeDee Lamb as well after Lamb suffered a concussion on Sunday against the Chiefs.

The Raiders will travel to Dallas with a 5-5 record on the season and a three-game losing streak. Adversity has been the keyword to the Raiders season after firing their Head Coach Jon Gruden and then their two first round picks (Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette) from the 2020 draft due to off the field issues. Their offense has had difficulty scoring points as of late, averaging 14 points per game over the last three weeks.

The Cowboys and Raiders all-time record is squared up at 6-6.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Inside the Numbers: How advanced stats see Cowboys-Chiefs Week 11 matchup

Which team’s more toxic, explosive? Which defense more successful? Who’s better per play and when opponent strength is considered? Breaking down acronym soup. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The NFL’s Week 11 slate features a matchup of two explosive offenses as the Dallas Cowboys travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Cowboys enter the game with a 7-2 record and are coming off of an impressive, 43-3 home win against the Atlanta Falcons. The Cowboys scored on the opening possession and never looked back, putting up 431 yards of offense and winning both the turnover battle and time of possession by wide margins.

The 6-4 Chiefs had a dominant performance of their own as they beat down the Las Vegas Raiders, 41-14. Any win over a divisional opponent is a good one, but doing so in a lopsided affair, is even better. The Chiefs gained over 500 yards of total offense and won their turnover battle and time of possession as well.

With both teams coming off of highly productive weeks, this game does not lack in storylines.

Notably, quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott will play each other for the first time in their careers. Both QBs are MVP candidates and together have combined for 45 touchdown passes. Head coach Mike McCarthy and Andy Reid have plenty of experience against each other going back to playoff matchups in their previous roles with the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers.

Both teams have young linebackers who are off to terrific starts to their careers in Micah Parsons and Nick Bolton. They each feature explosive wide recievers (Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper) matched with strong tight end play by Travis Kelce and Dalton Schultz.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Advanced Stat Notebook: Week 9 metrics show Cowboys should saddle Broncos

Cowboys, wild horses… this can only go one way folks. @ProfessorO_NFL looks into EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxicity to see which team has the Week 9 advantages. Mount up.

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Denver Broncos on Sunday for an early afternoon showdown. The Cowboys are riding a six game winning streak and are expected to have quarterback Dak Prescott back from injury. Prescott missed the Vikings game last week with a groin injury suffered against the New England Patriots.

The Broncos come to town in a bit of a slump, dropping four of their last five games. They were able to end their losing skid with a 17-10 win against the Washington Football Team last week. The Broncos found themselves in the news with a big trade, sending pass rusher Von Miller to the Los Angeles Rams for two Day-2 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics.

Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 7 on the season.

Advanced stats size up Cowboys-Vikings matchups in event Prescott plays

On Halloween night, whose advanced stats put more of a scare in their opponents? Sizing up a closer-than-the-records-indicate SNF matchup. @ProfessorO_NFL takes a look at DVOA, EPA, ANY/A and Toxicity advantages.

The 5-1 Dallas Cowboys will travel north to face the 3-3 Minnesota Vikings in primetime on Sunday Night Football. With both teams coming off bye weeks and getting reinforcements off injured reserve lists, this should be an exciting matchup.

The Cowboys are riding a five-game winning streak with the Vikings winning three of their last four contests.  Things go out the window if Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is unable to play, but the data is what it is. Meanwhile, the upcoming schedule for Minnesota isn’t kind with the Ravens, Chargers and Packers next in line.

With the teams facing off on Halloween, this matchup features dual two-headed monsters in the rushing game, lethally accurate quarterbacks and dangerous wide receivers.  Which side should feel confident and who should be afraid?

Here’s a review a some key advanced statistics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 6 on the season.

Seahawks rankings in 9 important team numbers going into Week 7

Here’s where Seattle ranks in nine important team numbers going into Week 7.

By now you have probably heard that the Seattle Seahawks defense ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per game, giving up 443.2 yards per contest. Yards will always be important, but this is also a somewhat facile way to evaluate a modern defense. In an era of advanced stats and efficiency ratings, there are certainly other numbers that are more compelling. Let’s take a look at some different stats to get a better idea of how good this team is right now in all three phases.

Here’s where Seattle ranks in nine important team numbers going into Week 7.

Pete Carroll thinks Brian Schottenheimer would be a great head coach

Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll stated that offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer would be a suitable head coach himself.

Since Brian Schottenheimer became the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive coordinator, the team’s offense has finished in the top 10 in offensive DVOA in both 2018 and 2019 and is on pace to do the same in 2020.

Of course, not everything has been perfect under Schottenheimer’s guidance, but he has executed well enough these past three years to garner interest from other teams as a possible head coach.

Pete Carroll asserted that Schottenheimer is indeed qualified for such a role because of his pedigree and leadership.

“I think he’s an incredible candidate,” Carroll said. “I think he’s exactly what owners are looking for. He’s been around, he’s been in charge, he commands the whole team with his leadership. You got great background. I say that because he’s been through our program for enough years, I know that he’s got his philosophy in order, he’s got his approach and how he would do it, because we’ve worked on all that stuff. So he’s ready to go.

“We haven’t talked about it this time around yet, but we’ve talked about it in the past.”

The Seahawks will likely want to keep Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator for the foreseeable future considering their overall success with him on board, but we’ll see what happens in 2021.

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Cowboys have NFL’s easiest remaining schedule, will it matter?

https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1313573956629286912Is there hope on the horizon for the Dallas Cowboys? After their lackluster performance in Week 4, it’s been easy, heck it’s been cathartic for fans and media to revel in how inept the club looks …

https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1313573956629286912Is there hope on the horizon for the Dallas Cowboys? After their lackluster performance in Week 4, it’s been easy, heck it’s been cathartic for fans and media to revel in how inept the club looks early in the season. Head coach Mike McCarthy and his regime were dealt a bad hand, but even so, they are doing a worse job than other staffs given similar circumstances, specifically defensively.

The question now becomes whether or not Sunday’s performance was an aberration worthy of momentary derision, or whether it was the beginning of a plummet into the abyss. Most likely, based on some positives seen in the Week 3 loss to Seattle and the offense being able to score at will when they aren’t in their own way with turnovers, it’s a temporary low. The performance should bounce back. And it appears if it does, Dallas is in the fortuitous position of having an easy schedule to do it against. According to advanced analytics site Football Outsiders, Dallas has the easiest schedule across the final 12 games of any team in the NFL.

The Cowboys of course have the benefit of playing six of their final games against NFC opponent, in one of the worst divisions in recent memory. Through four games, the group has combined for just three victories, and one of those came against another division club where someone had to win.

While Dallas has disappointed their fans with their 1-3 start, Football Outsiders isn’t as down on them as one may think. Dallas ranks 16th in DVOA — defense-adjusted value over average — an analytical measure that rates team performances on a play-by-play basis, given game situation and adjusts based on opponent. Garbage time performance is given less weight, a 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is more valuable than a 5-yard gain on 1st-and-20, a 300-yard passing game against the Colts is more impressive than a 300-yard passing game against, well, the Cowboys. That sort of stuff.

The rest of the NFC? Whew. It’s bad.

Philadelphia, who currently sit atop the division with an impressive 1-2-1 record, is ranked No. 30 in Team DVOA this week. FO normally loves the Eagles, but even they cannot mask how bad Carson Wentz has been this season. The Washington Football Team, which beat Philly in Week 1 for their lone victory, is actually ahead of them at No. 28.

The New York Giants, Dallas’ Week 5 opponent, come in dead last.

The Cowboys, according to DVOA, are performing 3.2% worse than the average team would if given the exact same game situations. Bad, but not egregious. Washington is -17.1%. The Eagles are -29.7% and the Giants are -32.4%.

The Cardinals, Dallas’ Week 6 opponent, ranked 23rd at -9.8%.

Everything isn’t easy, however. Baltimore (4th), Pittsburgh (7th), San Francisco (9th) and Buffalo (10th) all remain on the schedule as well, with the 49ers likely having their starting QB back, unlike having to play Nick Mullens in Week 4 giving the Eagles their only win.

Execution will be the key, because games aren’t played on spreadsheets. The numers certainly make it appear Dallas has an opportunity to course-correct.

6 amazing, impressive or depressing Cowboys-Browns, quarter-pole stats

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Washington has No. 1 ranked Defensive DVOA through two weeks

Though it didn’t always seem like it on Sunday against Arizona, Washington has the No. 1 ranked defensive DVOA so far this season.

If you’re searching for a stat to get excited about in Washington, look no further than the fact that Football Outsider’s DVOA ranks them as the No. 1 defense in the league after two weeks.

For those who don’t know what DVOA is — Defense-adjusted Value Over Average — it’s a way to compare teams to the mean production of the rest of the league, using each individual play and the situation. For a defense, having a negative DVOA percentage is the best, because it means that you are allowing the least amount of production from the offense.

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For Washington, their current DVOA through Week 2 is -35.5 percent, which just edges out the Pittsburgh Steelers by .4 percent. Their pass defense is the best in the league at -51.4 percent, while their rush defense is lacking a bit, at -8.1 percent. Before you ask all of your questions about how Washington’s secondary is ranked even close to No. 1 in the league, remember that most of this top ranking can be attributed to the front-line, who routinely gets after the QB and is responsible for an NFL high 11 sacks through two weeks.

Washington’s percentage may have been buoyed a bit thanks to their Week 1 performance against the Eagles, but they did a decent job against Kyler Murray on Sunday, and will yet again have a solid test against Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns a week from now.

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