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The Duke Blue Devils (5-2, 2-1 ACC) and Louisville Cardinals (6-1, 3-1) meet Saturday at Cardinal Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. Louisville odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Blue Devils are looking to bounce back after a 38-20 setback at Florida State, and Duke has now lost and failed to cover the spread in 2 of the past 3 games. The defense allowed a season-high point total, too, after having allowed just 59 total points in the 1st 6 games combined.
The big news for Duke is QB Riley Leonard (ankle) is a question mark. The line moved from 4 to 6.5 at some shops due to the injury news, as he aggravated a previous injury in his return at Florida State last weekend.
The Cardinals are looking to rebound after suffering a 38-21 loss at Pittsburgh last time out on Oct. 14. The 38 points allowed by the Cardinals were also a season high, and Louisville had conceded 20 or fewer points in 4 of the previous 5 outings.
Duke is No. 21 and Louisville is No. 18 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Duke at Louisville odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Duke +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Louisville -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Duke +6.5 (-115) | Louisville -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Duke at Louisville picks and predictions
Prediction
Louisville 25, Duke 17
Moneyline
Louisville (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s too much risk and not enough reward in a game expected to be very close.
AVOID, and look to the spread instead.
Against the spread
LOUISVILLE -6.5 (-110) is the lean, but go very lightly. This should be a 1-score game, and a defensive battle. If Leonard is officially ruled out, go with the Cardinals a little more aggressively.
The Cardinals lead the all-time series 3-0, but these teams have met just twice as members of the ACC. Louisville pounded Duke 62-22 on Nov. 18, 2021, in a Thursday game in Durham, but the Blue Devils are much, much better defensively in 2023.
This will be a nail-biter for side bettors all the way until the clocks reach zeroes.
Over/Under
UNDER 45.5 (-110) is the way to go, as both of these defenses have been strong all season, sans the last game each played. If Leonard is a game-time decision, and he is not able to go, this could end up being quite a value.
The Under is 1-1-1 in 3 home games for Louisville, while hitting in the most recent game at Cardinal Stadium against Notre Dame.
The Over has actually cashed in each of the team’s 2 road games, including last time out at FSU. The side and the total should both be close shaves Saturday.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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