Tag: DFS daily fantasy football picks best bets sleeper and bargain plays

Hopefully, you have recovered from the indigestion of this past Thursday. Certainly, you can heat up some leftovers and make yourself a delicious sandwich. We just need to be thankful for our fattened bellies and our fattened wallets, and now we get a chance to stuff ourselves with a second helping of Week 12 DFS delight.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Baker Mayfield is starting to look like the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. On Monday, during the @BlitzedPodcast, I compared him to Cavity Sam from the game Operation. Nevertheless, Kevin Stefanski is forcing him to persist. Can’t they start the kid that is watching the stadium for Baker in the commercial? If he does finally decide to take a rest Case Keenum gets the start and arguably makes a better fantasy play. Whichever of these two starts will be the QB4 on this slate.

Tyler Huntley started last week and didn’t look awful. Obviously, he is not Lamar Jackson, and if Lamar is healthy there is no chance that he isn’t playing. A healthy Jackson is the QB1 on the board, and an unhealthy but starting Jackson is QB3. If Huntley starts, he is the QB3, but I am not going to use him.

Kareem Hunt may return this week. If he does, it is a decent play, but his presence will actually murky things up with himself and Nick Chubb. If Hunt misses this one (as he should with the bye pending), Chubb is the RB1. If they both play, Chubb becomes RB2 and Hunt becomes RB4. This also puts D’Ernest Johnson back out to pasture. No Hunt = Johnson RB6.

Latavius Murray returned in Week 11, but he still played second fiddle to Devonta Freeman. What is this, 2015? Cleveland has been horse-bleep against the run recently. One of these two will be the RB3, my money is on Freeman. Which should leave the RB6/7 range for Murray.

Jarvis Landry as the last man standing is the de facto WR1 for Cleveland. I feel better about his chances if Keenum gets the start. Still, Baltimore has been mediocre against the pass. Even the once-unflappable Marlon Humphrey has been burnt a few times recently. Based on volume, both he and Donovan Peoples-Jones (if he returns from his groin injury) are playable at WR3/FLEX. Rashard Higgins will start if DPJ is not ready to return. He just isn’t talented enough to use even in a volume situation. Their fourth WR this past week was Ja’Marcus Bradley. He was called up from the practice squad but actually led the WR room in snaps. His deep ball threat factor is a kind of a duplication of DPJ. So bear that in mind. If DPJ is out, Bradley could be considered, especially in Showdown. The wild card is Anthony Schwartz. He looked like a young stud in Week 1 but hasn’t done much since then. He missed last week with a concussion, but he could be a deep punt WR3 if he plays.

Marquise Brown missed Week 11 due to a thigh injury. Before that, he was a target hog for Baltimore. The development of Rashod Bateman was already due to start altering that. Still, Bateman proved last week he is young enough that he will operate best as a WR2 on his team. On several occasions, the Browns have allowed multiple serviceable WR stat lines. So both are in WR3 consideration on this slate. Devin Duvernay and Sammy Watkins just won’t see enough usage if both Bateman and Brown suit up. Devin can be used in Showdown contests, but leave Sammy on the bench.

Baltimore has faced a murderer’s row of TEs this year. So their numbers are slightly inflated. Still, Cleveland almost trusts their TEs more than their WRs right now. Austin Hooper gets a ton of targets, but his final line always looks pedestrian. The story has been similar for David Njoku. Neither is a great play here, but they both might have a price worthy of a start. Hooper would be my choice of the two as the TE3 on the board.

Cleveland hasn’t been challenged by many imposing TEs this year. Still, on a small slate, Mark Andrews will be no worse than the TE2, and he will likely be the TE1. He owned the Browns last year, and I expect a repeat performance here.

Baltimore has the best defensive matchup on the board. Against a broken Baker or a backup Keenum, they should be your choice at DEF this week. Cleveland would have value if Huntley starts, but I still wouldn’t rank them higher than DEF3 here.

On Monday, the broken shell of Russell Wilson has a potential get-right matchup with the Washington Football Team. Washington has been one of the worst in the league against the pass this year. It is clear that the injury has Wilson not quite right, but he still gets the QB2 or QB3 slot here.

Taylor Heinicke had an impressive Week 11 in a tough matchup against the Panthers. Coming into that game, Carolina was ranked 1st overall against the pass and Seattle was the 32nd-ranked defense against the pass. This bodes well for young Taylor. Assuming Lamar Jackson plays, Heinicke and Wilson will jockey for the QB2/3 slot this week. The price difference puts Heinicke into most of my lineups.

Rashaad Penny is injured once again. Alex Collins had a tough go of it last week, and this week won’t be any easier. He will be no better than RB4 on the slate and that ranking is boosted by his volume of usage alone. DeeJay Dallas got some runs last week, including a TD. In a better matchup, I might consider him. Here, he is no better than an injury-punt FLEX play. Travis Homer did nothing last week. I expect him to do even less this time out.

Despite a fumble, Antonio Gibson got the lion’s share of touches last week. After a few injury-fueled, midseason duds, Gibson appears to have put the clamp down on the primary ball-carrier role. This is a bomb spot for him. If Kareem Hunt plays, Gibson could finish as the RB1 on this slate. If Hunt remains out, Gibson is a lock at RB2. J.D. McKissic does enough as a change-of-pack back and through the air to have value in a good matchup. This qualifies as one of those. If you don’t use Gibson, strongly consider starting McKissic as your FLEX to save some money. Jaret Patterson has been used recently to spell Gibson, but he won’t receive the volume necessary to be relevant here unless Gibson reinjures himself.

DK Metcalf has suffered the most due to Russell Wilson’s struggles the last two weeks. He couldn’t have asked for a better opportunity here to get back on track. Washington has allowed multiple stud WR performances basically every week this year. Metcalf must be in your starting lineup, and he should be either the WR1 or WR2 on the entire slate. As I just mentioned, multiple WRs have smashed against this defense on a weekly basis. This means that Tyler Lockett could easily have one of his overdue three-touchdown games here. One of these two must be in your lineup. There is no excuse not to use one of them. Freddie Swain looked to be the WR3 early on this year. Despite playing a fair number of snaps, he hasn’t caught a pass since Week 7. I’ll leave him for Showdown contests. The same goes for Dee Eskridge.

Terry McLaurin is in the conversation for WR1/2 this week. Seattle is playing better against the pass, but they can still be exploited by high-end WRs. Plus, most of the rest of Washington’s WR room is so-so. A returning Curtis Samuel could give this group a boost but I expect him to be on a snap count in his first game back. DeAndre Carter has scored in three straight games. I love him at WR3. Adam Humphries used to have value in PPR formats. He hasn’t done much in weeks, despite the team being shorthanded. You can ignore him. Cam Sims scored last week, but neither he nor Dax Milne will see enough snaps to be worth playing, especially if Samuel returns.

Washington has been mediocre against the TE position. Unfortunately, neither Gerald Everett nor Will Dissly is an obvious play. Everett may battle with the Cleveland TEs for TE3 on the board, but I’d rather use other players in this spot.

Ricky Seals-Jones missed last week’s game due to a hip injury. He is not guaranteed to return this week. Even if he does return, Logan Thomas is likely to return this week as well. Assuming no snap count for Thomas, he jumps into the TE2 spot on the slate. If neither of them plays, John Bates will get another start. He looked serviceable last week, but he doesn’t have the huge upside that Thomas or Seals-Jones would have against Seattle.

The WFT defense could harass the clearly not 100 percent Russell Wilson into some errant passes. I will definitely consider them. There is no upside in playing Seattle here.

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The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $5.6k for Cam Newton. $6.3k for Saquan Barkley. $5.3k for Melvin Gordon. $8.3k for Justin Jefferson. $7.9k for Deebo Samuel. $6.2k for DJ Moore. $3.8K for Evan Engram. $4.3k for Ty Johnson at FLEX. $2.3k for the Houston Texans defense.

At FD: $6.6k for Ben Roethlisberger. $9.7k for Christian McCaffrey. $7.5k for Barkley. $8.1k for Jefferson. $7.1k for Diontae Johnson. $6.4k for Elijah Moore. $5.5k for Engram. $5.2k for Ty Johnson at FLEX. $3.8k for the Atlanta Falcons defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Tom Brady, Newton at SF, McCaffrey, and Damien Harris, Ty Johnson at FLEX, Jefferson, Chris Godwin, and DJ Moore, and Engram.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Tom Brady is ready to blow up this week. I love him. My favorite pivots are Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins. Both Carson Wentz and Cam Newton can be used on DK but are a little too pricy on FD. Mac Jones and Tyrod Taylor are both serviceable punt options. That said, Ben Roethlisberger is such a bargain on both sites. I don’t see any way to truly avoid him. The only obvious knock is that he will have ridiculous ownership numbers.

Fantasy Four-pack

Tom Brady, Buccaneers @ IND
($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD)
Brady leads the league in passing touchdowns, and Indianapolis has allowed a league-high in passing touchdowns. Can it be this simple? Yes! In case you had too much worry, Brady has gotten Chris Godwin back. He got Rob Gronkowski back. He is getting Scotty Miller back. He may even get Antonio Brown back, though it’s unlikely. I expect Brady to have his sixth start of the year with four or more scores. Heck, he doesn’t even have to worry about any weather concerns this week.

Matthew Stafford, Rams @ GB
($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD)
Stafford got a week off to get back on the same page with his offense. Sean McVay definitely broke everything down and he should return both healthier and more explosive. The Packers are short-handed on every level of their defense right now and none of their missing players are guaranteed to return this week. We know Cooper Kupp will get his share, but I can see stacking Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson this week as well.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings @ SF
($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD) 
Minnesota is opening their offense up for Cousins, and he is responding by actually leading his team to victories. San Fran is actually pretty solid against the pass, but they have been bested by every single stud WR1 they have faced. This will be a hookup party between Kirk and Justin Jefferson. Even Adam Theilen is in play here as is the game stack with Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ NYG
($7,300 DK, $8,400 FD)
I really don’t like that FD price here. Brady is actually cheaper as is Stafford and Cousins. That said, Hurts has been playing well thanks to his rushing abilities. We can never count on multiple running TDs, but Hurts does have multiple rushing scores in three of his last seven starts. He is also averaging 56 rushing yards per game. Any passing numbers that Jalen nets are cake, and the Giants serve up that cake on Giant-sized platters.

DFS Sleepers

Mac Jones, Patriots vs. TEN
($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD)
Leave it to the Patriots to have the most NFL-ready QB in the draft fall to them. His passing yardage already has him as a QB1 this season. Somehow, the only QBs to struggle against this defense were Carson Wentz (in one of two meetings), Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford. The rest of the league has eaten them alive. Jones is a lock for 275-2 here.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers @ CIN
($5,200 DK, $6,600 FD)
We have identified this week’s glitch in the algorithm – and this isn’t even the Fanball “Secret Agent” play this week. Somehow, Big Ben did not see an increase in salary despite getting over COVID and getting back Chase Claypool. Cincy has the offense to keep this game up-tempo. That will mean lots of passing opportunities for the Steelers.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – All of the expensive options have a concern to me. Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor are both super expensive. As is Najee Harris and he had one of the quickest-cleared concussions in history last week. Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, and Austin Ekeler all have tough matchups. At this point, Dalvin Cook and Saquan Barkley with a new OC are the safest options. I’ll probably use C-Mac or one of them as my RB1. Choosing one of the Broncos at RB2 makes sense. I also like Darrell Henderson in that spot. That said, there are many interesting punt options. Miles Sanders, David Johnson, Ty Johnson, or one of the Falcons’ reserves if Cordarrelle Patterson misses another game could be in play at RB2/FLEX. I am spending up at WR this week, so I will probably use two of the cheap options at RB2 and FLEX.

Fantasy Four-pack

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers @ MIA
($9,000 DK, $9,700 FD)
Miami appears to have improved their run defense over the last five weeks. That is until you look a little closer. In their last five contests, they have faced a who’s not who of fantasy RBs. In their first six games of the year, they were gouged like a pin cushion. They were especially susceptible to pass-catching backs like McCaffrey.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ SF
($8,100 DK, $8,100 FD) 
Cook at a reduced price against a middling run defense. I’m game. This is just one of those spots where Dalvin is the safest of the high(er) priced options. I may pivot off of him to Saquan Barkley to save money for my WRs, but he is a lock for 100 total yards and a score. Plus, he can always add a few receptions to his counter.

Saquan Barkley, Giants vs. PHI
($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD)
Philly has allowed the sixth-most running back rushing yards, the second-most RB receptions, and the 10th-most RB receiving yards. Barkley is capable of exploiting all three of those categories. Plus, the new OC, Freddie Kitchens, is used to using a run-heavy strategy as he utilized during his season as Browns head coach.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs. TB
($9,100 DK, $9,800 FD)
Let me preface this by saying I will not be using Taylor at this price. That does not preclude me from including him in this article, however, as I always give you the top-4 projected scorers regardless of their price. Taylor proved last week that he can go off against a good run defense. This run defense is even more ruthless, so expecting a repeat performance would be a fool’s game. Nevertheless, Tampa can be beaten by pass-catching backs. Taylor should be able to put together some receiving-forward combo of 22-25 points here. That is actually pretty darn good, but not quite enough to spend this much. The fade is particularly useful here as others chase the points from last week.

DFS Sleepers

Miles Sanders, Eagles @ NYG
($5,100 DK, $6,100 FD)
Can we really trust the Eagles back this week? Sanders has a great matchup on paper, especially since Jordan Howard is doubtful to play. Despite an early fumble, Nick Sirianni stuck with Sanders against a very tough New Orleans run defense, and he performed well. This matchup is much easier, let’s hope we don’t get any coaching shenanigans here.

David Johnson, Texans vs. NYJ
($5,700 DK, $6,200 FD)
Houston cut Phillip Lindsay, leaving only 12 others to battle for touches in this backfield. You’d think they would use the back they traded DeAndre Hopkins for. Of course, this is the Texans and their mental acumen has often been questioned. The Jets have given up 15 total RB scores over their last five games. Johnson did nothing with 16 touches last week, but with 16 touches this week, he could finish with 3-4 TDs.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – We are going to be top-heavy at WR this week. I love Justin Jefferson and Deebo Samuel in the game stack with Kirk Cousins. Other expensive WRs that I like are both Buccaneers, Diontae Johnson, DeVonta Smith, and DJ Moore. I will likely pull both my WR1 and WR2 from that group. WR3 could be either Elijah Moore or Michael Pittman. I also like any of the Patriots or any of the other Jets here, too. That said, if I choose to go cheap at WR3, I love me some Laviska Shenault.

Fantasy Four-pack

Justin Jefferson, Vikings @ SF
($8,300 DK, $8,100 FD)
The Vikings have made a conscientious effort to get their offense more vertical. Over the last two weeks that has equated to 17-312-2 for Jefferson. San Francisco is middle-of-the-pack against WRs, but they have allowed over 100 yards and/or a TD to every elite WR1 they have faced this year.

Cooper Kupp, Rams @ GB
($9,600 DK, $9,500 FD)
The price is high, but Kupp has delivered more often than not. On the season, Kupp is averaging 8.5-114-1. That is 26 points per game in PPR format. Coming out of the bye and facing a shorthanded defense, Kupp is good as gold (and roughly the same price).

Deebo Samuel, Niners vs. MIN
($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD)
Not only is Samuel the Niners’ top WR, but he may also be their top RB. Minnesota has allowed 14 WRs to top 10 PPR points this year. This includes every elite WR1 they have faced except DJ Moore. Plus, over their last four games, no team has allowed more WR scores or receiving yards than Minnesota.

Chris Godwin, Buccaneers @ IND
($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD)
This is pretty much cut and paste from last week. “No team has allowed more WR scores than Indy. Among opponents’ top WRs to face them, only two have not scored. One was A.J. Brown earlier in the year in a game he got hurt and left early. The other was Brandin Cooks, who still finished the game with 9-89. Not to mention, that three NOW FOUR of those top WRs scored multiple TDs against this defense.” The only question this week is whether Godwin and Mike Evans (back) each get multiple TDs or if only one of them does. Godwin is cheaper than Evans, and he has seen a larger target share of the two recently, so he is my top choice of the two. That said, go ahead and stack both of them with Tom Brady. Hell, make it a true Voltron Stack and throw Rob Gronkowski in there as well. While you are at it, you might as well get really slick and run it back with Michael Pittman, too.

DFS Sleepers

Elijah Moore, Jets @ HOU
($5,600 DK, $6,400 FD)
Over the last four weeks, no WR has more receiving scores than Moore. He also has the sixth-most receptions and the fifth-most receiving yards among the position. Meanwhile, Houston ranks sixth in yards allowed to the position. Plus, they have allowed multiple double-digit WR PPR performances this season in more than half of their games.

Michael Pittman, Colts vs. TB
($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD)
Pittman had a tough matchup last week and he got prematurely taken out of the game script when Indy got so far ahead so early on. In this game there will be passing … oh yes, there will be passing. I don’t see any way short of an injury where Pittman doesn’t finish with a floor of 6-75-1 in this shootout.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Kyle Pitts will be under-owned coming off two duds. His price isn’t awful, but it is still likely more than I can afford. Dallas Goedert, Rob Gronkowski, and Noah Fant are my favorite higher-priced TE options this week. Still, I will be hard-pressed to not just start Evan Engram against the hilariously bad Philly defense. Pat Freiermuth is also in play with Eric Ebron likely out for the year. Ryan Griffin is really the only sure thing punt play.

Fantasy Four-pack

Noah Fant, Broncos vs. LAC
($4,600 DK, $5,900 FD)
Only one team has allowed more TE scores than Los Angeles. This includes four over the last two weeks. Fant remains second in targets, receptions, and receiving TDs among all Denver skill position players despite missing 1 1/2 games with an injury. I like him to post a floor of 6-60-1 here.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles @ NYG
($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD)
The Giants are allowing more than 10 PPR points per week to opposing TEs. Meanwhile, since Zach Ertz was traded to Arizona, Goedert is second among all Philly personnel in receiving yards and targets, and he is tied for the team lead in receptions.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons @ JAC
($6,100 DK, $6,600 FD)
Despite the entirety of Atlanta’s offense going into witness protection the last two weeks, Pitts has actually continued to return at least a modicum of value. His 89 yards over the last two weeks are 40 more than the next closest Falcon. Jacksonville has faced only four upper-echelon TEs, all of them have finished with double-digit PPR points. Pitts will hit that as well, and his ownership will be minuscule since no one will trust this offense.

Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers @ IND
($4,400 DK, $6,500 FD)
Much like every other passing position, Indy has been rotten against TEs. They have allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to the position, and the third-most TDs. Gronk returned last week and was right back on the horse catching six of eight targets for 71 yards.

DFS Sleepers

Evan Engram, Giants vs. PHI
($3,800 DK, $5,500 FD)
Philly is dead last in every meaningful statistic against opposing TEs and it isn’t particularly close. At this price, I cannot fathom not using Engram. Of course, everyone else will be thinking that, too, so expect huge ownership. We can hope his dud against TB slows some of the ownership, but he did score in both games before his bye. This week he will make it three out of four, and that isn’t half bad.

Ryan Griffin, Jets @ HOU
($2,600 DK, $4,800 FD)
Griffin is really the only true punt play on this slate. Houston has been bottom of the barrel against the position all year. Meanwhile, Griffin has seen a slight uptick in targets since Zach Wilson has been out. This week we will find out if those targets continue with Wilson back under center. Griffin hasn’t done much with those targets, but at this price, one TD = 3x value.

After having multiple chalky (and successful) RB gifts fall into our laps last week due to injury and COVID, this week we have a few returning RBs to murky the waters. Is it wrong of me to hope for more injuries or continued injuries to potentially returning, middling vets (yes, I am referring to you, CEH)? If not, then I guess it is back to paying up for running backs and bargain hunting elsewhere. Oh well, at least we get the gift of A.J. Dillon, wait, what do you mean he is fully priced? – Curses, foiled again! Help me, Jeff Wilson Jr. … you are my only hope.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Ben Roethlisberger started Week 11 in the COVID protocol. As a vaccinated player, he still needs to be symptom-free and report two consecutive negative tests to play this week. If he clears the protocol, Mike Tomlin has already declared that he will start regardless of whether or not he gets in any practices. That is a pretty strong vote of confidence in a veteran who hasn’t really done much this season. Against a very good Los Angeles defense, I am not going to be in a hurry to start him. Of course, I am going to be even less excited to start Mason Rudolph.

I am also not jumping out of my skin to start a QB against the Steelers’ secondary. Both matchups on MNF are sexier than this one for Justin Herbert. Still, Herbert’s name alone has some swag compared to MNF starter Daniel Jones. I prefer Justin to Rudolph or Roethlisberger on this slate, but he is probably going to battle to best Jones’ production at a much higher price tag. I just don’t see the value here.

Najee Harris against one of the worst run defenses in football should be a mortal lock play. It helps that he has zero competition for carries.

Austin Ekeler is going to be harder to rank this week. Yes, he is very good, but he is going against an elite run defense. He has had a couple of strong finishes against upper-echelon run defenses already this year. Unfortunately, he also has back-to-back ho-hum games against bad run defenses. No team has allowed fewer total RB scores this season, so I cannot go any higher than RB3 on this board. His price won’t be given an appropriate discount, so I will likely fade him. Joshua Kelley has fallen behind Larry Rountree on the depth chart, but neither is worth using in a bad matchup.

Diontae Johnson remains the primary target for Pittsburgh, regardless of who is under center. Unfortunately, only four WR1s have reached double-digit PPR points against this defense, and three of them “split” WR1 duties on their respective teams. DeVonta Smith is the only “one-man show” to get it done against them. What this implies, is that Johnson could struggle if Chase Claypool is not active and the defense can truly dog Johnson. Still, Johnson’s volume of targets will always keep him in play at WR1. Speaking of Claypool, he hurt his toe in Week 9 and he remains questionable for this week. If he plays, he may have his snaps limited. That said, I truly believe his being on the field will help Johnson’s production. With the risk of reinjury, I will likely fade Claypool here. Ray-Ray McCloud was a target beast last week with Rudolph under center and Claypool out. In truth, he ranks behind James Washington in the Pittsburgh WR room. I believe that his output was more due to Rudolph’s familiarity with him from practice. Assuming Big Ben and Claypool both return, I would rather use Washington at WR3 than McCloud. If Rudolph starts, McCloud would be the preferred WR3 play regardless of Claypool’s status. Just know whoever starts at QB, we are likely looking at a ceiling of two passing TDs (one of which may end up in the lap of the TE).

Mike Williams has disappeared over the last month. Earlier this season, I opined about not having any shares of him in dynasty leagues. Perhaps, that was for the best. Only two bigger-bodied alpha WRs have had huge games against this defense. Possession and slot receivers have had slightly more success against Pittsburgh. This is why, if I choose one of the Chargers’ WRs, it will be Keenan Allen. He still will be no better than WR3 overall on the docket. That said, he is the safest WR play in this game for either side. Against a weaker defense, I could see punting with Jaylen Guyton or Josh Palmer. This matchup isn’t very inviting, though, so save them for Showdown contests with Palmer getting the slight edge there.

Pat Freiermuth fumbled away a Pittsburgh victory last week. That won’t keep me from using him here (especially if Chase Claypool remains out). Freiermuth’s usage of late, paired with the juicy matchup, makes him the clear TE1 on this slate, even if Rob Gronkowski returns.

Jared Cook is no stronger than TE4 on this slate. His usage has been sporadic, and Pittsburgh has been considerably above average against the position. Plus, he has to split looks with Donald Parham and Stephen Anderson. Anderson is a depth piece, at best right now and can be ignored in all formats, but Parham is literally a huge red-zone threat. I’d almost consider starting him over Cook if I am TD mining at cost savings. In Showdown slates, Parham is always a must-start.

Two very good defenses facing off. The Chargers offense is a larger threat right now, especially if Ben Roethlisberger is out. I could see using either of them, but LA definitely gets the edge if Mason Rudolph starts.

On Monday, Daniel Jones gets to face off against a Tampa Bay secondary that was much-maligned to start the year due to injuries. A series of face-offs against so-so QBs have improved their lot in life significantly recently as they have given up only three total TDs to opposing QBs over the last four games. Tampa still remains shorthanded in the defensive backfield, so Jones could produce a medium-ish line. The big advantage that he has over some of the other also-ran QBs that Tampa has faced recently is that he has wheels. I’ll rank Jones as a QB2 or QB3 this week in a tight battle with Herbert for that rank.

Tampa Bay has had a rough go of things recently, but that really hasn’t hindered Tom Brady’s final line. Even in his second-worst start of the year last week, Brady finished with 220-2. A healthy returning Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski would certainly help him, but neither is guaranteed this week. Still, Brady is the consensus QB1 on the slate, and he will be in most of my lineups.

Tampa Bay has the second-stingiest run defense in the league, so starting a running back against them is never recommended. The only exceptions are if you have a true stud that you are never benching, or if you have pass-catching backs. They are really the only RBs to produce solid lines against them this year. Saquan Barkley is scheduled to return to the active roster this week. He won’t do much on the ground this week (especially if Devontae Booker gets some change-of-pace work) but Barkley is valuable enough in the passing game to jockey with Ekeler for the RB3 slot on the board. Booker can be avoided completely unless you want to take a deep flier that Barkley re-injures himself.

Leonard Fournette is my RB2 on this slate and in most of my lineups. The Giants have struggled against the position all season, and Lenny has established himself as the clear top back for Tampa. His usage in the passing game has been his biggest boon, and it has been fed by the absence of Rob Gronkowski. Earlier this season, Giovani Bernard had that role, but not anymore. He can be ignored now. The same goes for Ronald Jones as he would need a Fournette injury to have value.

This game features two WR rooms that are jam-packed with injuries. Kenny Golladay returned in Week 9 but did nothing. Tampa is bad enough against the pass to consider him as a WR2 or WR3 here. After a huge breakout earlier this year, Kadarius Toney has pulled a Travis Fulgham. Unlike Fulgham, Toney actually has talent. I love him to go ham here if Sterling Shepard doesn’t return. Even if Shepard plays, Toney needs to be in WR3/FLEX consideration. I actually like him better than Golladay. Coming off of the bye, I would’ve hoped that Shepard was ready to go, but he missed practice to start the week. This means that he is probably not going to be a go this week. If he plays, he deserves WR2/3 consideration. That said, the reinjury likelihood is almost too high for him. John Ross is always in play for Showdown contests, but with Toney and Golladay healthy, he just won’t see enough snaps to be tournament-worthy. The same goes for Collin Johnson.

Chris Godwin played last week despite an injury scare. He even led the WR room in targets and receptions. Against New York, both Godwin and Mike Evans deserve WR1 consideration. One (if not both) must be in your lineups, especially if Antonio Brown does not return here. Even if Brown takes the field, I love both Godwin and Evans to approach 6-75-1 with Evans the more likely to score and Godwin the more likely to lead in receptions. Brown’s return wouldn’t kill their value as he might actually open up more of the field for them. If AB plays, I see him more as a WR3 this week since his snap count will likely be limited. If Brown doesn’t play, Tyler Johnson will get another chance to showcase his wares in the starting lineup. He has averaged 5.5 targets over the last two games and at his price point, he becomes a must-start at WR3 or FLEX. Be wary, though, if Brown or Scotty Miller return this week. Miller has been battling turf toe all season, but he began practicing last week and is eligible to return off IR. I won’t use him in his first game back, but he could harm Johnson’s potential output by stealing snaps.

Evan Engram is the best TE that no one ever feels comfortable playing. He has scored in back-to-back contests but has only registered three receptions in both games. If Sterling Shepard misses this one, you can use him as the TE3 on the slate and maybe the TE2 if Rob Gronkowski doesn’t play, otherwise, I would only use him as a cost-savings play. Kyle Rudolph has also seen a bump in usage due to all of the injuries, but as the others have gotten healthy he becomes a less-athletic version of Parham … truly TD-dependent.

A returning Rob Gronkowski would be the clear TE2 on the board and perhaps even TE1. We just don’t have any reason to feel certain that he will return. That leaves Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard to once again share the routes. The two have truly split the workload since Gronk’s injury. I don’t love either of them, but if I had to choose it would be Brate.

Tampa’s defense has been shorthanded in the secondary, but Daniel Jones is mistake-prone enough to make them a decent choice this week. There is no way that I even consider the Giants here.

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The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $7.6k for Patrick Mahomes. $6.2k for AJ Dillon. $5.1k for Jeff Wilson. $8.4k for Davante Adams. $4.2k for Michael Gallup. $3.1k for Danny Amendola. $7.1K for Travis Kelce. $5.5k for David Montgomery at FLEX. $2.7k for the Carolina Panthers defense.

At FD: $8.3k for Mahomes. $9k for Nick Chubb. $6.6k for Michael Carter. $8.4k for Adams. $6.6k for Brandin Cooks. $5.1k for Albert Wilson. $7.3k for Kelce. $5k for J. Wilson at FLEX. $3.6k for the Cincinnati Bengals defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Cam Newton, Mahomes at SF, Dillon, and Chubb, Najee Harris at FLEX, Adams, Cooks, and Robby Anderson, and Pat Freiermuth.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Obviously, I like Dak Prescott versus Patrick Mahomes. Both should easily return 3x value in the presumed shootout. I also like both QBs in the NFC North matchup between GB and MIN. Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, and Derek Carr also have some appeal. So, as you can see, most of the higher-priced options are in play this week. The big issue I have this week is that there are very few options to punt with. Cam Newton has some pretty clear value, but he will be severely over-owned. If I do choose to go cheap, I may use Tyrod Taylor.

Fantasy Four-pack

Josh Allen, Bills vs. IND
($8,100 DK, $8,800 FD)
No team has allowed more passing scores than Indy. Meanwhile, Allen had a get-right game last week against the Jets. The Colts are more likely to keep this game competitive. So, Allen doesn’t have to worry about playing himself to an early exit with a strong showing.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. DAL
($7,600 DK, $8,300 FD)
Anytime you can get Mahomes for under $8k, it is a great chance to use him. Coming off of his own get-right game is just icing on the cake. Dallas’ pass defense has appeared to improve as the season has progressed, but in truth, their competition has gotten worse. Kirk Cousins is the only quality QB they have faced since Week 2, and the entire Vikings offense took that week off. I like both teams to score big here, so give me as much action in this game as possible.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ MIN
($7,000 DK, $7,700 FD) 
Minnesota will get back a few of their injured secondary pieces this week. Unfortunately, they are still shorthanded up front, which should provide Rodgers all the time he needs to pick apart the returning corners and safeties. Davante Adams has made the Vikings his whipping boy in recent meetings. Stack away happily.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys @ KC
($7,200 DK, $8,400 FD)
I prefer Mahomes in this game, but Dak will be forced to throw the ball frequently to keep up with the Chiefs. The return of Michael Gallup improves Prescott’s output as it gives him another reliable target. At his price, he also makes my favorite stack with Dak. Prescott will finish the game with three scores, one of which may come on the ground. The only way he fails this week is if his receivers keep getting tackled inside the 5-yard line, leading to Ezekiel Elliott scores.

DFS Sleepers

Cam Newton, Panthers vs. WAS
($5,100 DK, $7,500 FD)
Washington is miserably bad against the pass. Only one team has allowed more passing scores this season. If you include rushing TDs allowed to opposing QBs, no team has allowed more total scores to the position. We haven’t seen enough yet to determine if Newton’s arm is any better than the noodle it appeared to be last season, but he is always a huge threat to score a rushing TD. Plus, with an RB like Christian McCaffrey and a speedy YAC receiver like D.J. Moore, you don’t have to throw the ball very far down the field.

Tyrod Taylor, Texans @ TEN
($5,000 DK, $6,600 FD)
Over the last four weeks, Tennessee has allowed the most passing completions and the third-most passing yards to opposing QBs. Those numbers seem unfathomable when you consider they include a complete bomb by Mahomes. Taylor did next to nothing in his return to the field last week. That said, he was clearly rusty, and Miami blitzed on nearly every play. It won’t take much for him to reach 3x on DK. In a slate with few true punt options. He may be the smartest one of all as his ownership should be way down after last week.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Christian McCaffrey are the three best choices among the high-priced RBs. If Alvin Kamara returns, he could reach value since the competition is weak against pass-catching backs. One of these four will be my probable RB1. I may also pivot to D’Andre Swift if Jamaal Williams is ruled out. There are five options I like at RB2. AJ Dillon, James Conner, Michael Carter, David Montgomery, and Myles Gaskin all make a strong group to choose from. I could also use two of them if I wish to save money for WRs. Any of them could also be my FLEX. The punt options at RB this week are almost as bad as the punt options at QB. If Eli Mitchell misses this game due to his finger injury, Jeff Wilson becomes a must-start. I could also see using one of the Titans, or Ty Johnson. Neither excites me, but if you need to save money, you need to save money. We don’t have the gimmes that we were gifted last week.

Fantasy Four-pack

Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. GB
($8,200 DK, $8,400 FD)
Over the last two seasons, Cook has faced the Packers three times. These are his lines: 191 total yards and a TD, 48 total yards and two touchdowns, and 226 total yards with four touchdowns. Obviously, we would have liked to have seen more yardage in that middle game, but the pair of scores made up for the down day yardage-wise. If the Vikes want to win this game, they should lean early and often on Dalvin.

Nick Chubb, Browns vs. DET
($7,800 DK, $9,000 FD) 
Chubb missed last week with COVID. Assuming he can clear protocols by this weekend (and I have no reason to believe otherwise since he was supposedly close to playing last week), Chubb gets a cakewalk game. Of course, if Chubb cannot go, then D’Ernest Johnson gets another blowup opportunity (despite a less appealing FD price). The Lions have allowed 16 total RB touchdowns over their nine games played.

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers vs. WAS
($8,900 DK, $10,000 FD)
Historically speaking, McCaffrey has done more damage in games that were not started by Cam Newton. That said, it has been a few years now. Cam doesn’t have the arm he once did, and how eager is he to absorb quite as many punishing blows at the stripe? The team would be wise to limit Newton’s carries in this contest if they want him to last the rest of the season. C-Mac proved last week that he can still approach 30 points even without scoring. If he scores, it is just a bonus.

D’Andre Swift, Lions @ CLE
($7,000 DK, $7,500 FD)
Over the last four weeks, only one team has allowed more total RB scores than Cleveland. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift has scored in three of his last five games. He is also leading all RBs in receptions and receiving yards. It may need to come through the air, but 100 total yards and a score have become Swift’s weekly floor.

DFS Sleepers

Michael Carter, Jets vs. MIA
($5,800 DK, $6,600 FD)
Carter doesn’t get Captain Checkdown Mike White at QB anymore, but that may be advantageous for him since that should limit some of the snaps that Ty Johnson steals. Plus, Miami is hardly a shutdown defense against the run. Joe Flacco will have very little success if the Jets cannot establish the run. So, I expect them to feed Carter the ball as much as he can handle.

Myles Gaskin, Dolphins @ NYJ
($5,700 DK, $6,200 FD)
This game should provide opportunities for both sides to run the ball effectively. Gaskin has done very little with a plethora of carries recently. This week he could accrue a ton of points with even just a few touches. It may seem mathematically impossible, but the Jets have allowed 14 running back touchdowns over just their last four games. Heck, even I could score twice against this slump-buster of a defense.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Davante Adams should be a set-it-and-forget-it lock at WR1. The only question is do you also roster Tyreek Hill or use him as the only true pivot from Adams. Justin Jefferson could also be used as long as Jaire Alexander remains out. He just lacks the exponential ceiling difference of the top two. If you do choose to not use Adams and/or Hill, I would actually suggest skipping Jefferson and using any of the other top-priced options (Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, or Ja’Marr Chase) for cheaper since they all have great matchups as well. If I go cheap at RB, I could use two of that above group. In reality, I am probably limited to just one of them (and that will likely be Adams). There are several legit options at WR2. I really like both Hunter Renfrow and Brandin Cooks. Cole Beasley could also be in play if you don’t use Diggs. At WR3, I love Michael Gallup and Rashod Bateman. There are not any real pivots that I like there. There are three punt plays I can get behind if you choose to use two expensive WRs up top. Albert Wilson, Danny Amendola, and Josh Reynolds all have slate-breaking opportunities at their prices. If you play any Showdown contests featuring their respective teams, you absolutely need to use each of them.

Fantasy Four-pack

Davante Adams, Packers @ MIN
($8,400 DK, $8,400 FD)
Last year, Adams faced Minnesota twice. In those two games, he recorded 21 receptions, 209 yards, and five touchdowns. Give me another round of that juice.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. DAL
($8,200 DK, $8,500 FD)
Trevon Diggs has done a fine job of jumping routes and picking off passes. That said, jumping the route would not be a good idea when he is guarding a player as speedy as the Cheetah. Hill has remained a home run threat even during the Chiefs’ October struggles. Now that Patrick Mahomes seems to have righted the ship, the sky is the limit for Hill. He will burn Diggs at least once this week and quite likely multiple times.

Deebo Samuel, Niners @ JAX
($7,800 DK, $7,600 FD)
Jacksonville has limited a pair of solid WR1s in back-to-back weeks, but before that, they were getting scorched like a bag of marshmallows at a boy scout retreat. What makes Deebo even more of an imposing play this week is if Eli Mitchell is out, Samuel may get a few snaps at tailback. Whatever happens with the potential carries, Deebo will finish with some combination of 125 total yards and at least one score.

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. IND
($7,900 DK, $8,100 FD)
No team has allowed more WR scores than Indy. Among opponents’ top WRs to face them, only two have not scored. One was A.J. Brown earlier in the year in a game he got hurt and left early. The other was Brandin Cooks, who still finished the game with 9-89. Not to mention, that three different of those top WRs scored multiple TDs against this defense. I am slightly concerned about Dawson Knox stealing red-zone targets again now that he is healthy, but truthfully they should both go off here.

DFS Sleepers

Brandin Cooks, Texans @ TEN
($6,000 DK, $6,600 FD)
Cooks was not slowed down by the return of Tyrod Taylor in Week 9. In fact, he was back up to 14 targets after a bit of a slow run with Davis Mills under center. Cooks only caught six of those targets, but it was clear that Taylor was trusting his veteran WR. Earlier this year, Cooks posted 14-210-1 on 21 targets in Taylor’s two starts before the QB was hurt. Tennessee has allowed 16 different WRs to post double-digit PPR points. This is why I like stacking Cooks with Taylor and perhaps even Danny Amendola.

Hunter Renfrow, Raiders vs. CIN
($5,800 DK, $6,100 FD)
Cincy has been mediocre against the pass this year. They have had particular difficulties with possession receivers. Renfrow (and to a different degree, Darren Waller) are easily the possession receivers for Vegas. In a PPR format, Renfrow should continue the recent uptick he has seen since Henry Ruggs’ arrest. Over the last two weeks, only two WRs have more TDs and only three have more receptions.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Travis Kelce at home versus the Cowboys, yes, please. George Kittle versus Jacksonville, yes please, too! Darren Waller versus Cincy makes it a fantasy

among the expensive tight ends. At a slightly lower price point, Dalton Schultz is in play as is Dawson Knox. Cole Kmet could also be an even cheaper option. That said, if I don’t pay up for one of the big three, I will likely just punt with Adam Trautman, Geoff Swaim, or Ryan Griffin.

Fantasy Four-pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. DAL
($7,100 DK, $7,300 FD)
Last week, Kansas City made a quantifiable effort to get Kelce more involved in the offense once again. It worked out as the Chiefs offense got itself back on track. Dallas hasn’t been tested by many elite TEs this year, and Kyle Pitts actually was the only part of Atlanta to do anything against them last week. I expect KC to continue to focus their attack with Kelce as he tops 100 yards for a second straight game while scoring at least once. The best part about Kelce this week is he is cheaper than Tyreek Hill if you are looking to put together a game stack.

George Kittle, Niners @ JAX
($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD)
In the two games since his return from injury, Kittle has led San Fran in targets, receptions, and receiving TDs. He also is only nine receiving yards behind Deebo Samuel. Jacksonville has dominated the position the last three weeks, but they have faced talent the equivalent of Larry, Mo Alie, and Curly. Those stooges aside, Jacksonville got destroyed earlier this year by every quality TE (and a few so-so ones, too) that faced them.

Darren Waller, Raiders vs. CIN
($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD)
The Bengals have been decent against opposing TEs this year, but over their last four games, they have allowed an average of 5-57-0.5. That is typically Waller’s floor. His numbers are a little down on the year, but he is still averaging nine targets per game started. If he can finally get into the end zone, the 3x will hit. It just isn’t as certain as Kittle or Kelce.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions @ CLE
($5,700 DK, $5,900 FD)
Hockenson has been a victim of being surrounded by a bunch of chaff. Opposing defenses are keying on him because the other Detroit WRs don’t scare anyone. The addition of Josh Reynolds this week might finally open a little wiggle room for the big tight end. On the year, only one team has allowed more TE touchdowns than Cleveland, including three over the last four weeks. Despite a few subpar performances, Hockenson is still first or second in every receiving category for Detroit. I like him to post a floor of 6-70 here.

DFS Sleepers

Cole Kmet, Bears vs. BAL
($3,400 DK, $5,100 FD)
Over their last four games, Kmet leads the Bears in receptions and receiving yards, and he is trailing only Darnell Mooney in targets. Meanwhile, Baltimore has been among the worst teams at defending TEs all season. More than half of the teams to face them have had a double-digit PPR tight end performances. They did hold Mike Gesicki in check last week, but Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen still posted a respectable 4-57 against them. It won’t take much for Kmet to reach 3x on DK, especially if he continues to be featured in the Bears’ offensive strategy.

Adam Trautman, Saints @ PHI
($3,300 DK, $4,800 FD)
No team has been as rotten against TEs this year as Philly. They have allowed 25 percent more receptions to the position than the next-worst team. They have also allowed the most receiving yards and TDs to the position. It has gotten so bad that, over the last four weeks, Philly is allowing an atrocious 9-103-0.75 to the position. This comes despite facing three of four mediocre to downright bad offenses. Since Trevor Siemian has taken over at QB, Trautman is tied for the team lead in targets and ranks second in receptions. If he continues to get the increased volume, he should be in for a big week at a bargain-basement price.