Tag: daily fantasy football Week 12

Hopefully, you have recovered from the indigestion of this past Thursday. Certainly, you can heat up some leftovers and make yourself a delicious sandwich. We just need to be thankful for our fattened bellies and our fattened wallets, and now we get a chance to stuff ourselves with a second helping of Week 12 DFS delight.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Baker Mayfield is starting to look like the Black Knight from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. On Monday, during the @BlitzedPodcast, I compared him to Cavity Sam from the game Operation. Nevertheless, Kevin Stefanski is forcing him to persist. Can’t they start the kid that is watching the stadium for Baker in the commercial? If he does finally decide to take a rest Case Keenum gets the start and arguably makes a better fantasy play. Whichever of these two starts will be the QB4 on this slate.

Tyler Huntley started last week and didn’t look awful. Obviously, he is not Lamar Jackson, and if Lamar is healthy there is no chance that he isn’t playing. A healthy Jackson is the QB1 on the board, and an unhealthy but starting Jackson is QB3. If Huntley starts, he is the QB3, but I am not going to use him.

Kareem Hunt may return this week. If he does, it is a decent play, but his presence will actually murky things up with himself and Nick Chubb. If Hunt misses this one (as he should with the bye pending), Chubb is the RB1. If they both play, Chubb becomes RB2 and Hunt becomes RB4. This also puts D’Ernest Johnson back out to pasture. No Hunt = Johnson RB6.

Latavius Murray returned in Week 11, but he still played second fiddle to Devonta Freeman. What is this, 2015? Cleveland has been horse-bleep against the run recently. One of these two will be the RB3, my money is on Freeman. Which should leave the RB6/7 range for Murray.

Jarvis Landry as the last man standing is the de facto WR1 for Cleveland. I feel better about his chances if Keenum gets the start. Still, Baltimore has been mediocre against the pass. Even the once-unflappable Marlon Humphrey has been burnt a few times recently. Based on volume, both he and Donovan Peoples-Jones (if he returns from his groin injury) are playable at WR3/FLEX. Rashard Higgins will start if DPJ is not ready to return. He just isn’t talented enough to use even in a volume situation. Their fourth WR this past week was Ja’Marcus Bradley. He was called up from the practice squad but actually led the WR room in snaps. His deep ball threat factor is a kind of a duplication of DPJ. So bear that in mind. If DPJ is out, Bradley could be considered, especially in Showdown. The wild card is Anthony Schwartz. He looked like a young stud in Week 1 but hasn’t done much since then. He missed last week with a concussion, but he could be a deep punt WR3 if he plays.

Marquise Brown missed Week 11 due to a thigh injury. Before that, he was a target hog for Baltimore. The development of Rashod Bateman was already due to start altering that. Still, Bateman proved last week he is young enough that he will operate best as a WR2 on his team. On several occasions, the Browns have allowed multiple serviceable WR stat lines. So both are in WR3 consideration on this slate. Devin Duvernay and Sammy Watkins just won’t see enough usage if both Bateman and Brown suit up. Devin can be used in Showdown contests, but leave Sammy on the bench.

Baltimore has faced a murderer’s row of TEs this year. So their numbers are slightly inflated. Still, Cleveland almost trusts their TEs more than their WRs right now. Austin Hooper gets a ton of targets, but his final line always looks pedestrian. The story has been similar for David Njoku. Neither is a great play here, but they both might have a price worthy of a start. Hooper would be my choice of the two as the TE3 on the board.

Cleveland hasn’t been challenged by many imposing TEs this year. Still, on a small slate, Mark Andrews will be no worse than the TE2, and he will likely be the TE1. He owned the Browns last year, and I expect a repeat performance here.

Baltimore has the best defensive matchup on the board. Against a broken Baker or a backup Keenum, they should be your choice at DEF this week. Cleveland would have value if Huntley starts, but I still wouldn’t rank them higher than DEF3 here.

On Monday, the broken shell of Russell Wilson has a potential get-right matchup with the Washington Football Team. Washington has been one of the worst in the league against the pass this year. It is clear that the injury has Wilson not quite right, but he still gets the QB2 or QB3 slot here.

Taylor Heinicke had an impressive Week 11 in a tough matchup against the Panthers. Coming into that game, Carolina was ranked 1st overall against the pass and Seattle was the 32nd-ranked defense against the pass. This bodes well for young Taylor. Assuming Lamar Jackson plays, Heinicke and Wilson will jockey for the QB2/3 slot this week. The price difference puts Heinicke into most of my lineups.

Rashaad Penny is injured once again. Alex Collins had a tough go of it last week, and this week won’t be any easier. He will be no better than RB4 on the slate and that ranking is boosted by his volume of usage alone. DeeJay Dallas got some runs last week, including a TD. In a better matchup, I might consider him. Here, he is no better than an injury-punt FLEX play. Travis Homer did nothing last week. I expect him to do even less this time out.

Despite a fumble, Antonio Gibson got the lion’s share of touches last week. After a few injury-fueled, midseason duds, Gibson appears to have put the clamp down on the primary ball-carrier role. This is a bomb spot for him. If Kareem Hunt plays, Gibson could finish as the RB1 on this slate. If Hunt remains out, Gibson is a lock at RB2. J.D. McKissic does enough as a change-of-pack back and through the air to have value in a good matchup. This qualifies as one of those. If you don’t use Gibson, strongly consider starting McKissic as your FLEX to save some money. Jaret Patterson has been used recently to spell Gibson, but he won’t receive the volume necessary to be relevant here unless Gibson reinjures himself.

DK Metcalf has suffered the most due to Russell Wilson’s struggles the last two weeks. He couldn’t have asked for a better opportunity here to get back on track. Washington has allowed multiple stud WR performances basically every week this year. Metcalf must be in your starting lineup, and he should be either the WR1 or WR2 on the entire slate. As I just mentioned, multiple WRs have smashed against this defense on a weekly basis. This means that Tyler Lockett could easily have one of his overdue three-touchdown games here. One of these two must be in your lineup. There is no excuse not to use one of them. Freddie Swain looked to be the WR3 early on this year. Despite playing a fair number of snaps, he hasn’t caught a pass since Week 7. I’ll leave him for Showdown contests. The same goes for Dee Eskridge.

Terry McLaurin is in the conversation for WR1/2 this week. Seattle is playing better against the pass, but they can still be exploited by high-end WRs. Plus, most of the rest of Washington’s WR room is so-so. A returning Curtis Samuel could give this group a boost but I expect him to be on a snap count in his first game back. DeAndre Carter has scored in three straight games. I love him at WR3. Adam Humphries used to have value in PPR formats. He hasn’t done much in weeks, despite the team being shorthanded. You can ignore him. Cam Sims scored last week, but neither he nor Dax Milne will see enough snaps to be worth playing, especially if Samuel returns.

Washington has been mediocre against the TE position. Unfortunately, neither Gerald Everett nor Will Dissly is an obvious play. Everett may battle with the Cleveland TEs for TE3 on the board, but I’d rather use other players in this spot.

Ricky Seals-Jones missed last week’s game due to a hip injury. He is not guaranteed to return this week. Even if he does return, Logan Thomas is likely to return this week as well. Assuming no snap count for Thomas, he jumps into the TE2 spot on the slate. If neither of them plays, John Bates will get another start. He looked serviceable last week, but he doesn’t have the huge upside that Thomas or Seals-Jones would have against Seattle.

The WFT defense could harass the clearly not 100 percent Russell Wilson into some errant passes. I will definitely consider them. There is no upside in playing Seattle here.

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The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $5.6k for Cam Newton. $6.3k for Saquan Barkley. $5.3k for Melvin Gordon. $8.3k for Justin Jefferson. $7.9k for Deebo Samuel. $6.2k for DJ Moore. $3.8K for Evan Engram. $4.3k for Ty Johnson at FLEX. $2.3k for the Houston Texans defense.

At FD: $6.6k for Ben Roethlisberger. $9.7k for Christian McCaffrey. $7.5k for Barkley. $8.1k for Jefferson. $7.1k for Diontae Johnson. $6.4k for Elijah Moore. $5.5k for Engram. $5.2k for Ty Johnson at FLEX. $3.8k for the Atlanta Falcons defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Tom Brady, Newton at SF, McCaffrey, and Damien Harris, Ty Johnson at FLEX, Jefferson, Chris Godwin, and DJ Moore, and Engram.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Tom Brady is ready to blow up this week. I love him. My favorite pivots are Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins. Both Carson Wentz and Cam Newton can be used on DK but are a little too pricy on FD. Mac Jones and Tyrod Taylor are both serviceable punt options. That said, Ben Roethlisberger is such a bargain on both sites. I don’t see any way to truly avoid him. The only obvious knock is that he will have ridiculous ownership numbers.

Fantasy Four-pack

Tom Brady, Buccaneers @ IND
($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD)
Brady leads the league in passing touchdowns, and Indianapolis has allowed a league-high in passing touchdowns. Can it be this simple? Yes! In case you had too much worry, Brady has gotten Chris Godwin back. He got Rob Gronkowski back. He is getting Scotty Miller back. He may even get Antonio Brown back, though it’s unlikely. I expect Brady to have his sixth start of the year with four or more scores. Heck, he doesn’t even have to worry about any weather concerns this week.

Matthew Stafford, Rams @ GB
($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD)
Stafford got a week off to get back on the same page with his offense. Sean McVay definitely broke everything down and he should return both healthier and more explosive. The Packers are short-handed on every level of their defense right now and none of their missing players are guaranteed to return this week. We know Cooper Kupp will get his share, but I can see stacking Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson this week as well.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings @ SF
($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD) 
Minnesota is opening their offense up for Cousins, and he is responding by actually leading his team to victories. San Fran is actually pretty solid against the pass, but they have been bested by every single stud WR1 they have faced. This will be a hookup party between Kirk and Justin Jefferson. Even Adam Theilen is in play here as is the game stack with Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ NYG
($7,300 DK, $8,400 FD)
I really don’t like that FD price here. Brady is actually cheaper as is Stafford and Cousins. That said, Hurts has been playing well thanks to his rushing abilities. We can never count on multiple running TDs, but Hurts does have multiple rushing scores in three of his last seven starts. He is also averaging 56 rushing yards per game. Any passing numbers that Jalen nets are cake, and the Giants serve up that cake on Giant-sized platters.

DFS Sleepers

Mac Jones, Patriots vs. TEN
($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD)
Leave it to the Patriots to have the most NFL-ready QB in the draft fall to them. His passing yardage already has him as a QB1 this season. Somehow, the only QBs to struggle against this defense were Carson Wentz (in one of two meetings), Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford. The rest of the league has eaten them alive. Jones is a lock for 275-2 here.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers @ CIN
($5,200 DK, $6,600 FD)
We have identified this week’s glitch in the algorithm – and this isn’t even the Fanball “Secret Agent” play this week. Somehow, Big Ben did not see an increase in salary despite getting over COVID and getting back Chase Claypool. Cincy has the offense to keep this game up-tempo. That will mean lots of passing opportunities for the Steelers.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – All of the expensive options have a concern to me. Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor are both super expensive. As is Najee Harris and he had one of the quickest-cleared concussions in history last week. Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, and Austin Ekeler all have tough matchups. At this point, Dalvin Cook and Saquan Barkley with a new OC are the safest options. I’ll probably use C-Mac or one of them as my RB1. Choosing one of the Broncos at RB2 makes sense. I also like Darrell Henderson in that spot. That said, there are many interesting punt options. Miles Sanders, David Johnson, Ty Johnson, or one of the Falcons’ reserves if Cordarrelle Patterson misses another game could be in play at RB2/FLEX. I am spending up at WR this week, so I will probably use two of the cheap options at RB2 and FLEX.

Fantasy Four-pack

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers @ MIA
($9,000 DK, $9,700 FD)
Miami appears to have improved their run defense over the last five weeks. That is until you look a little closer. In their last five contests, they have faced a who’s not who of fantasy RBs. In their first six games of the year, they were gouged like a pin cushion. They were especially susceptible to pass-catching backs like McCaffrey.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ SF
($8,100 DK, $8,100 FD) 
Cook at a reduced price against a middling run defense. I’m game. This is just one of those spots where Dalvin is the safest of the high(er) priced options. I may pivot off of him to Saquan Barkley to save money for my WRs, but he is a lock for 100 total yards and a score. Plus, he can always add a few receptions to his counter.

Saquan Barkley, Giants vs. PHI
($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD)
Philly has allowed the sixth-most running back rushing yards, the second-most RB receptions, and the 10th-most RB receiving yards. Barkley is capable of exploiting all three of those categories. Plus, the new OC, Freddie Kitchens, is used to using a run-heavy strategy as he utilized during his season as Browns head coach.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs. TB
($9,100 DK, $9,800 FD)
Let me preface this by saying I will not be using Taylor at this price. That does not preclude me from including him in this article, however, as I always give you the top-4 projected scorers regardless of their price. Taylor proved last week that he can go off against a good run defense. This run defense is even more ruthless, so expecting a repeat performance would be a fool’s game. Nevertheless, Tampa can be beaten by pass-catching backs. Taylor should be able to put together some receiving-forward combo of 22-25 points here. That is actually pretty darn good, but not quite enough to spend this much. The fade is particularly useful here as others chase the points from last week.

DFS Sleepers

Miles Sanders, Eagles @ NYG
($5,100 DK, $6,100 FD)
Can we really trust the Eagles back this week? Sanders has a great matchup on paper, especially since Jordan Howard is doubtful to play. Despite an early fumble, Nick Sirianni stuck with Sanders against a very tough New Orleans run defense, and he performed well. This matchup is much easier, let’s hope we don’t get any coaching shenanigans here.

David Johnson, Texans vs. NYJ
($5,700 DK, $6,200 FD)
Houston cut Phillip Lindsay, leaving only 12 others to battle for touches in this backfield. You’d think they would use the back they traded DeAndre Hopkins for. Of course, this is the Texans and their mental acumen has often been questioned. The Jets have given up 15 total RB scores over their last five games. Johnson did nothing with 16 touches last week, but with 16 touches this week, he could finish with 3-4 TDs.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – We are going to be top-heavy at WR this week. I love Justin Jefferson and Deebo Samuel in the game stack with Kirk Cousins. Other expensive WRs that I like are both Buccaneers, Diontae Johnson, DeVonta Smith, and DJ Moore. I will likely pull both my WR1 and WR2 from that group. WR3 could be either Elijah Moore or Michael Pittman. I also like any of the Patriots or any of the other Jets here, too. That said, if I choose to go cheap at WR3, I love me some Laviska Shenault.

Fantasy Four-pack

Justin Jefferson, Vikings @ SF
($8,300 DK, $8,100 FD)
The Vikings have made a conscientious effort to get their offense more vertical. Over the last two weeks that has equated to 17-312-2 for Jefferson. San Francisco is middle-of-the-pack against WRs, but they have allowed over 100 yards and/or a TD to every elite WR1 they have faced this year.

Cooper Kupp, Rams @ GB
($9,600 DK, $9,500 FD)
The price is high, but Kupp has delivered more often than not. On the season, Kupp is averaging 8.5-114-1. That is 26 points per game in PPR format. Coming out of the bye and facing a shorthanded defense, Kupp is good as gold (and roughly the same price).

Deebo Samuel, Niners vs. MIN
($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD)
Not only is Samuel the Niners’ top WR, but he may also be their top RB. Minnesota has allowed 14 WRs to top 10 PPR points this year. This includes every elite WR1 they have faced except DJ Moore. Plus, over their last four games, no team has allowed more WR scores or receiving yards than Minnesota.

Chris Godwin, Buccaneers @ IND
($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD)
This is pretty much cut and paste from last week. “No team has allowed more WR scores than Indy. Among opponents’ top WRs to face them, only two have not scored. One was A.J. Brown earlier in the year in a game he got hurt and left early. The other was Brandin Cooks, who still finished the game with 9-89. Not to mention, that three NOW FOUR of those top WRs scored multiple TDs against this defense.” The only question this week is whether Godwin and Mike Evans (back) each get multiple TDs or if only one of them does. Godwin is cheaper than Evans, and he has seen a larger target share of the two recently, so he is my top choice of the two. That said, go ahead and stack both of them with Tom Brady. Hell, make it a true Voltron Stack and throw Rob Gronkowski in there as well. While you are at it, you might as well get really slick and run it back with Michael Pittman, too.

DFS Sleepers

Elijah Moore, Jets @ HOU
($5,600 DK, $6,400 FD)
Over the last four weeks, no WR has more receiving scores than Moore. He also has the sixth-most receptions and the fifth-most receiving yards among the position. Meanwhile, Houston ranks sixth in yards allowed to the position. Plus, they have allowed multiple double-digit WR PPR performances this season in more than half of their games.

Michael Pittman, Colts vs. TB
($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD)
Pittman had a tough matchup last week and he got prematurely taken out of the game script when Indy got so far ahead so early on. In this game there will be passing … oh yes, there will be passing. I don’t see any way short of an injury where Pittman doesn’t finish with a floor of 6-75-1 in this shootout.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Kyle Pitts will be under-owned coming off two duds. His price isn’t awful, but it is still likely more than I can afford. Dallas Goedert, Rob Gronkowski, and Noah Fant are my favorite higher-priced TE options this week. Still, I will be hard-pressed to not just start Evan Engram against the hilariously bad Philly defense. Pat Freiermuth is also in play with Eric Ebron likely out for the year. Ryan Griffin is really the only sure thing punt play.

Fantasy Four-pack

Noah Fant, Broncos vs. LAC
($4,600 DK, $5,900 FD)
Only one team has allowed more TE scores than Los Angeles. This includes four over the last two weeks. Fant remains second in targets, receptions, and receiving TDs among all Denver skill position players despite missing 1 1/2 games with an injury. I like him to post a floor of 6-60-1 here.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles @ NYG
($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD)
The Giants are allowing more than 10 PPR points per week to opposing TEs. Meanwhile, since Zach Ertz was traded to Arizona, Goedert is second among all Philly personnel in receiving yards and targets, and he is tied for the team lead in receptions.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons @ JAC
($6,100 DK, $6,600 FD)
Despite the entirety of Atlanta’s offense going into witness protection the last two weeks, Pitts has actually continued to return at least a modicum of value. His 89 yards over the last two weeks are 40 more than the next closest Falcon. Jacksonville has faced only four upper-echelon TEs, all of them have finished with double-digit PPR points. Pitts will hit that as well, and his ownership will be minuscule since no one will trust this offense.

Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers @ IND
($4,400 DK, $6,500 FD)
Much like every other passing position, Indy has been rotten against TEs. They have allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to the position, and the third-most TDs. Gronk returned last week and was right back on the horse catching six of eight targets for 71 yards.

DFS Sleepers

Evan Engram, Giants vs. PHI
($3,800 DK, $5,500 FD)
Philly is dead last in every meaningful statistic against opposing TEs and it isn’t particularly close. At this price, I cannot fathom not using Engram. Of course, everyone else will be thinking that, too, so expect huge ownership. We can hope his dud against TB slows some of the ownership, but he did score in both games before his bye. This week he will make it three out of four, and that isn’t half bad.

Ryan Griffin, Jets @ HOU
($2,600 DK, $4,800 FD)
Griffin is really the only true punt play on this slate. Houston has been bottom of the barrel against the position all year. Meanwhile, Griffin has seen a slight uptick in targets since Zach Wilson has been out. This week we will find out if those targets continue with Wilson back under center. Griffin hasn’t done much with those targets, but at this price, one TD = 3x value.