Tag: DFS Week 9

With the NFL trade deadline passed we can now edit some of the chaff off of the bottom of our season-long rosters. Fortunately for those of us in the DFS community, we never need to worry about wasting a roster spot on someone like Marlon Mack, Deshaun Watson or Odell Beckham, hoping and praying that they get dealt somewhere where they will be fantasy-relevant again.

This week we have four teams on bye, but only Tampa Bay has a deluge of regular DFS contributors. I’m certainly not going to lose any sleep over not being forced to overpay to use Geno Smith-fed wide receivers or trying to decipher which WFT running back will lead the team in touches this week … not to mention, trying to guess which, if any, Detroit Lion is worth playing.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

The schedule makers were certainly looking forward to watching Derrick Henry butt heads with the vaunted Los Angeles defense. Well, unfortunately for them, fate’s fickle finger decided to point in Henry’s direction this past weekend. So, now the storyline morphs to a pair of veteran QBs who escaped horrible situations to flourish in new environments. Ryan Tannehill was considered a game manager as recently as 2018. Now, he will have to be the face of his current team going forward. The Rams will not make it easy on him. Still, he is the second-safest play at the position on this slate. Just realize that his ceiling is right around 225-2. His best upside might be if he can steal a goal-line rushing score.

Matthew Stafford is the best QB option on the slate, and he faces the easiest defensive matchup. This will likely mean extreme ownership percentages for him. Those rates will be right since none of the other options is highly appealing.

Are you ready for the Jeremy McNichols show in Tennessee? I mean, the team was so confident in his ability that he was allowed a whopping seven carries through the first seven games. McNichols has always had a minor amount of PPR value, but now he will have to — at the very least — handle the rock more via hand-off. On this slate, he is the RB5. He might see volume if Los Angeles gets ahead early and Tennessee abandons the run. Speaking of the run, most of the ground-and-pound yards will come from veteran Adrian Peterson, who was signed Monday morning. Peterson hasn’t been a consistent fantasy performer since 2018, and he hasn’t been a superstar since 2015. We also don’t know Peterson’s current conditioning status. He was always a strength-and-fitness gym rat, so that is less concerning for me. Still, even with the potential limitations to his game, it doesn’t take a masterclass to know how to run straight forward behind the offensive line. Nevertheless, AD is 36, so, I won’t list him any higher than RB4 here. Dontrell Hilliard had a few minor moments in early 2019 with the Cleveland Browns, but he has been largely a special teams guy since then. If AD isn’t ready to be the featured back this week, Hilliard might get a couple of carries. I still wouldn’t use him outside of Showdown, and then only if Peterson doesn’t suit up.

Darrell Henderson has been solid all season. Meanwhile, Tennessee has been better against the run than the pass, but that isn’t saying much. All of the upper-tier RBs to face the Titans have clowned them. I like Henderson as the RB2 on this slate, and he should put up solid numbers regardless of the game script. Sony Michel has served a role with Los Angeles. In recent weeks, he has put up solid numbers in mop-up time. Still, he won’t have sizeable value without a Henderson injury. On this board, he is RB6 and could be considered as an injury-pivot or even as a FLEX play. Personally, I would rather leave him for Showdown lineups where he won’t need an injury to potentially return value.

At this point, we cannot trust that Julio Jones will suit up each week. If he does shed his hamstring issue, I like him as a WR2/3 option, since he won’t have to deal with a Jalen Ramsey shadow. A.J. Brown will see that shadow regardless of whether or not Julio plays. It hasn’t been the death sentence of previous years, but it definitely knocks him down to no higher than WR4 on the slate. The Ramsey-risk paired with his typical salary makes him a hard guy to use here. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Josh Reynolds could be usable as WR3/FLEX plays here if Jones is out. Even as a standalone play, Reynolds could get some rub in a revenge game narrative. Chester Rogers was a factor earlier this year, but a groin injury has kept him in check for the last month. He could also have some FLEX value if Jones is not on the field. Marcus Johnson saw five targets last week, but I believe a lot of that was because Reynolds was battling an illness. I don’t think he has enough usage this week to be worth even a dart throw.

Cooper Kupp will be the WR1 on this slate. It isn’t close. Just lock him in your lineups and build around him. Don’t miss out on his pair of scores this week. Robert Woods gets the WR5/6 slot on the docket, and he will be a consideration for your WR2 slot. I just don’t know if I want both of them in my lineup. Van Jefferson may be the better option financially if you need to triple-stack the Rams’ passing attack.

Tennessee has three mediocre tight ends. None of Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser, or MyCole Pruitt should be trusted outside of Showdown this week.

Tyler Higbee failed me last week, but he is still the TE1 on this slate. If you don’t use Van Jefferson at WR3, make Higbee the third stake in your Rams stack.

The Rams have a great NFL defense, but the MNF game features two cheaper options that have higher upside this week. Starting the Titans defense is only a great idea if you like getting kicked in the groin repeatedly. Never start a defense that is likely to allow over 30 points.

On Monday, the Justin Fields experiment gets its first primetime appearance. This alone would be a great excuse to fade Fields. Then add to that the fact that he has to face Pittsburgh’s elite defense, and this will not end well for Fields nor for his fantasy owners. His best hope is on the ground and Pittsburgh has given up a total of 77 rushing yards to QBs this year. Plus, Matt Nagy will be back at the helm calling plays this week. So, we cannot even count on him getting the carries necessary to rely on his legs from a fantasy perspective.

Ben Roethlisberger is clearly showing his age this season. His arm has been shaky all year, but he does have weapons. He has a higher potential ceiling than Tannehill here, but also a lower floor. This puts him at QB3 for me this week. If Tennessee doesn’t get Julio back from his injury, I might bump Big Ben up to QB2.

David Montgomery is eligible to come off of the IR. Of course, Matt Nagy has been unforthcoming as to his status for this week and the foreseeable future. If he returns this week (and I doubt he will), I’d leave him on my bench since he will be weaned back into the play script. Chicago can afford to do that because Khalil Herbert has been a beast in his stead. Pittsburgh has a stifling run defense, but based on volume alone I still give Herbert RB3 consideration. Damien Williams hurt his knee Sunday and hurt his relevance chances a few weeks back when Herbert lapped him. Both he and Ryan Nall can stay off your lineup card.

Najee Harris is officially a bell-cow RB. Meanwhile, Chicago has been trounced by at least one back in six of eight games. This is why I have more faith in Harris than any other back on this board. If I can afford it, I will have both him and Henderson in my lineups.

Everyone in the fantasy world was begging for Allen Robinson to be traded this week. It didn’t happen. So, unfortunately, his value will continue to remain in the outhouse. There have been multiple WR1s to have success against Pittsburgh this year but none since Week 5. I cannot see A-Rob finally breaking out here. Darnell Mooney has been far more involved in the Chicago offense this year and can be considered as a WR3/FLEX play here. Still, it doesn’t make me feel confident using him here, either. I was shocked to learn that Marquise Goodwin was still in the league. I still don’t know if I believe that. I think someone is screwing with my box scores and just inserting early 2010’s players to make my mind blurry during analysis.

Diontae Johnson is a target beast. I have him as my WR2 here. He will be my primary pivot if I don’t use Kupp. Chase Claypool has also been very solid. I don’t trust him anywhere near as much as Johnson, but he could be used at WR2/3 to save a few bucks. James Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud have split the WR3 role with JuJu Smith-Schuster on IR. Neither has done enough to warrant DFS usage. I’d argue that Pat Freiermuth and Harris have more value in the passing game than either of those two.

Cole Kmet and Jesse James have split targets the last couple of weeks. Kmet is clearly the stronger talent, but James has the experience advantage. Pittsburgh is in the middle of the road against TEs, so I could see using one of them. If I had to choose, I’d go with Kmet. That said, James scored the TD last week, and he has a revenge game narrative at play. Jimmy Graham will also return this week, but he has exactly three targets all season. I’m not concerned about his impact here.

Pat Freiermuth will always be known as the other tight end from this draft. That said, he has produced playable lines in four of seven games. Eric Ebron is injured, and he hasn’t done anything this season. I’m not going to waste my time with him. Freiermuth, on the other hand, is arguably the TE2 on this slate with a growing upside if Ebron misses the game. Zach Gentry has seen a bump in targets with Ebron dinged up but his usage is too infrequent to trust here.

Choose one of these two defenses. They are cheaper than the Rams and both teams have issues on offense. I prefer Pittsburgh, because they are facing the less experienced QB on the road in his first primetime appearance.

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The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $5.8k for Tua Tagovailoa. $7.2k for Aaron Jones. $5.2k for Boston Scott. $6.1k for Brandin Cooks. $5.6k for Jaylen Waddle. $4.8k for Hunter Renfrow. $4.9K for Mike Gesicki. $5.8k for Eli Mitchell at FLEX. $4k for the Buffalo Bills defense.

At FD: $7.3k for Tua. $7.1k for Mitchell. $7.6k for Nick Chubb. $7.9k for Ja’Marr Chase. $6.1k for Waddle. $6.8k for Cooks. $6.5k for Gesicki. $6.3k for Scott at FLEX. $3.7k for the Los Angeles Chargers defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford at SF, Mitchell and Scott, Stefon Diggs, Rashod Bateman, Josh Reynolds, Cooper Kupp at FLEX, and Tommy Sweeney.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Most of the high-priced QBs are usable this week. I especially like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. The midtier is much less appealing as only Derek Carr and Tua Tagovailoa jump out to me. That said, Tua may be my favorite play of the week. Baker Mayfield and Teddy Bridgewater could be decent punt options. With Jordan Love forced to start, he wouldn’t be a rotten option against the abysmal KC defense.

Fantasy Four-pack

Josh Allen, Bills @ JAX
($8,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
Jacksonville has been a middle-of-the-road unit against QBs this season. Their numbers look somewhat good because most teams just run the ball relentlessly against them. Of course, when you consider the Bills, Allen is their best runner. He is also their most reliable ball carrier at the stripe. Over his last five games, Allen has had 17 total TDs. Pencil him in for another three or four here.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. GB
($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD)
Mahomes is not dominating as he has in previous years. Somehow, opposing defenses have limited him to five total TDs over his last four games. It hasn’t been all doom and gloom, though. In his first four games of the year, Mahomes had 15 total scores. Green Bay is without their top two cornerbacks — not exactly what you want to hear when you are about to face the Chiefs. The only reason to have a concern here is determining what effect, if any, Jordan Love will have on the game script.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. MIN
($7,300 DK, $8,300 FD) 
Poor Minnesota. One of their starting interior defensive linemen is currently out with an injury. Then they traded one of their depth defensive ends. Then their best edge rusher/end suffered a season-ending injury. Now they have to tangle with arguably the most shifty QB in the league. Jackson has thrown for more than one passing TD only once this season. So, it is hard to predict multiple passing scores even with Rashod Bateman healthy and active. The reason we use Lamar, though, isn’t his passing acumen (which he can channel on occasions), it is his legs. Only eight other players have more rushing yards this season and they are all RBs.

Justin Herbert, Chargers @ PHI
($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD)
Herbert has only one game this season where he has neither thrown for multiple scores nor topped 300 yards. That was on the road against a very strong Ravens defense. Philly is a mess right now, and Herbert is considerably better than last week’s opponent, Jared Goff. Darius Slay remains a great shutdown corner, but he can only guard one of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. My belief is he shadows Allen, leaving Williams as the player to stack here.

DFS Sleepers

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. HOU
($5,800 DK, $7,300 FD)
Houston we have a problem. You have a QB that doesn’t want to be there, and that you don’t want to be there, and now it is too late to trade him. You also have a top WR that doesn’t want to be there and that you refused to trade. You have a three-headed RB situation where none of them is any good. You are starting either a career backup or an unready rookie at QB. You also traded or allowed to walk most of your defensive talent over the last 12 months. Tua’s NFL progress took some time to develop, but up until this past Tuesday, there was some question as to how much confidence Miami’s front office had in him. Miami didn’t trade for Deshaun Watson. So, for at least the next nine weeks, Tua will get the chance to win that confidence. Houston has allowed three passing TDs in each of their last two games. I could see Tua throwing at least two here.

Baker Mayfield, Browns @ CIN
($5,400 DK, $6,600 FD)
Did anyone see what Mike freaking White just did to the Bengals? It goes without saying that Mayfield is a stronger QB than White. Baker likely will be without Odell Beckham this week, but it isn’t as if Beckham has done anything this year. Mayfield was shutout versus the stingy Steelers last week, but he came out of the game no worse for wear in regards to his shoulder. Perhaps the removal of the clubhouse cancer OBJ will strengthen this offense moving forward. This will be a great test of that theory.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Austin Ekeler didn’t make my lineups last week, because I was concerned by his Friday injury status. He still showed out. I think he is the best play among the RBs this week. Alvin Kamara has a great matchup but I am concerned about what effect the presence of either Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian will have on his production. Nick Chubb is the other high-priced RB that I like as a pivot from Ekeler. Tier two features some decent talent at a decent price. I like Chuba Hubbard (if Christian McCaffrey does not play), Myles Gaskin, and Eli Mitchell (assuming he plays). Discount options I like for the FLEX slot include both Eagles, both Broncos, and both Bills.

Fantasy Four-pack

Austin Ekeler, Chargers @ PHI
($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD)
Philly has allowed a league second-high 163 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. Meanwhile, Ekeler has topped 100 combo yards in five of seven games. He also has six total scores over his last four games. I like him for 125-1 here with seven or eight receptions thrown in.

Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. ATL
($8,200 DK, $9,400 FD) 
Atlanta is a cake matchup for most RBs. I typically would be all over this. However, we don’t know who will be under center for New Orleans this week. Will it be Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill? Siemian could cause a stacked defensive front against Kamara and Hill could vulture TDs. I’m also concerned that Kamara hasn’t come up big in his last four meetings with Atlanta. In those games, he is averaging only 75 total yards and 0.5 total scores. Perhaps, the Saints will lean more on him with the QB change. If that happens then maybe we will see a 125-1 sort of day here.

Nick Chubb, Browns @ CIN
($6,700 DK, $7,600 FD)
Chubb was limited to just 69 total yards in his first game back and without Kareem Hunt. In his defense, Chubb was facing the new Steel Curtain. This week, he gets to face more of a Japanese paper folding screen. Over the last four weeks, Cincy has allowed five total RB scores, 152 combo yards per game, and nine receptions per game to opposing RBs. D’Ernest Johnson may get a pittance from that line, but most of it will go to Chubb.

Aaron Jones, Packers @ KC
($7,200 DK, $8,500 FD)
With Jordan Love under center, the Pack will have to lean even more on Jones and A.J. Dillon. Last week, Jones was basically the Green Bay WR1. This week he should shift back to being the primary ball carrier out of the backfield. Every team to face KC has had at least one RB top 85 total yards against them. That and a score is Jones’ floor.

DFS Sleepers

Boston Scott, Eagles vs. LAC
($5,200 DK, $6,300 FD)
I picked the wrong Eagles running back last week. Actually, I picked the third-best Eagles running back last week. I blame Nick Sirianni for pulling a “Shanahanigans.” Scott looked fully capable of being the primary runner for Philly, but he still ended up sharing touches with Jordan Howard and Kenneth Gainwell. All three could have big games this week against a Los Angeles defense that has allowed a league second-worst seven total RB scores over the last four weeks. This figure is remarkable since that four-week span includes their bye week.

Myles Gaskin, Dolphins vs. HOU
($5,800 DK, $6,100 FD)
Gaskin posted nearly double the number of opportunities of Salvon Ahmed last week. Still, his final line was depressingly bad. Fortunately for him, the Bills ranked fifth against the run and the Texans rank 30th. Houston has been toasted on the ground this year. No team has allowed more total RB rushing yards on the season. Gaskin has had marginal success both on the ground and through the air. I like him to finish here with 50 yards on the ground to go with 6-60 through the air and a score.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy –  Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Mike Williams are my favorite WR1 plays this week. Brandin Cooks and Jaylen Waddle make a great game stack with Tua Tagovailoa if you want to skip the expensive WR1. Other options for WR2 include Cole Beasley, Jarvis Landry, and Jerry Jeudy. WR3 should fall to Rashod Bateman if possible. Otherwise, I also like Hunter Renfrow and Tre’Quan Smith.

Fantasy Four-pack

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. GB
($7,900 DK, $8,500 FD)
Over their last five games, the Pack has faced four Alpha WR1. They each destroyed a short-handed Green Bay secondary. Hill was definitely the Chiefs’ focal point on Monday when they got back on the winning track against New York. I expect them to continue to force-feed the Tyfreak as long as they want to keep winning.

Stefon Diggs, Bills @ JAX
($7,700 DK, $7,600 FD)
Diggs has underperformed this season, but a lot of that was due to his lack of TD volume. And most of that was due to vultures from Dawson Knox. Knox left Week 6 with a broken hand, and Diggs scored in that game as well as in Week 8 when Knox was out due to the injury. Dawson remains day-to-day, and he isn’t needed this week to defeat Jacksonville. I believe they hold him out one more week to fully heal. This should give all the value boost that Diggs needs to reach 3x.

Mike Williams, Chargers @ PHI
($7,100 DK, $7,300 FD)
Darius Slay will need to choose which WR he will shadow this week. My belief is that he follows Keenan Allen, which will leave Williams to do the most damage. Williams has been underutilized the last couple of games, which should keep his ownership numbers down. Use that to your advantage and stack him with Justin Herbert.

Deebo Samuel, Niners vs. ARI
($7,800 DK, $8,000 FD)
Back in Week 5, Samuel had more targets against Arizona than the entire rest of the WR room for San Francisco combined. That was with the not-ready-for-primetime Trey Lance under center. Jimmy Garoppolo is back starting for SF, and in the two games since their last battle, Samuel has posted 13-271-1 on 20 targets. If George Kittle returns this week, it could cost Samuel some targets but not enough to make him fall out of the top four.

DFS Sleepers

Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins vs. HOU
($5,600 DK, $6,100 FD)
I’m torn between Waddle and his running mate DeVante Parker. In the five games that they have both played, Parker has 43 targets and Waddle has 42. Parker has more yards, but Waddle has more receptions. So it really is very close. Houston cannot stop anyone, so I have zero issues with starting either or even both of them in a stack with Tua Tagovailoa. Waddle is more expensive on DK but cheaper on FD. Perhaps use that as your divining rod as to which one to stack.

Hunter Renfrow, Raiders @ NYG
($4,800 DK, $5,600 FD)
Henry Ruggs’ felonious activities earlier this week leave him without a job and potentially with a lengthy prison term. This opens the door for even more targets for the PPR darling Renfrow. Despite often lining up opposite James Bradberry, opposing WR1s have actually been fairly dominant against the Giants. Plus, if Darren Waller remains out, then Hunter will see even more targets.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Both Darren Waller and George Kittle could make their returns this week. Each is a decent play. I don’t mind Travis Kelce this week, but the price savings to Waller is useful elsewhere. For me, there are three great plays in the second-tier. I love Mike Gesicki and Dallas Goedert. I also like Jared Cook. This could be a great week to use two of them in a double-TE lineup.  If Dawson Knox plays, he also has a good matchup. If he doesn’t play, Tommy Sweeney becomes a great punt play once again. Foster Moreau could also fall into that category if Waller doesn’t return. Speaking of absences, Albert Okwuegbunam should get the start if Noah Fant cannot clear the COVID protocol. At his price, he could be a tourney winner.  

Fantasy Four-pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. GB
($7,000 DK, $7,800 FD)
Kelce has underperformed recently as defenses have attempted to take him out of each game. Green Bay just doesn’t have the dogs in the secondary to do this. I don’t love his price compared to some of the other top options at TE, but if you want exposure to this game, he is cheaper than Tyreek Hill.

Darren Waller, Raiders @ NYG
($6,200 DK, $6,800 FD)
If Waller was 100 percent healthy, he would reach 3x value this week in his sleep. Right now, it appears that he will be good to go come Sunday. With Henry Ruggs cut, Waller should see an uptick in targets. That would be nice since his numbers are down overall on the season. The Giants effectively shut down Travis Kelce last week. Don’t let that dissuade you from using Waller here.

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins vs. HOU
($4,900 DK, $6,500 FD)
Houston has given up a league-worst six TE scores. Gesicki had a ho-hum game last week versus an elite Buffalo defense. He still finished with 3-48 and a two-point conversion. This week will be much easier for him. On the year, only two TEs have more receptions than Gesicki and only three have more receiving yards.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. LAC
($4,500 DK, $6,200 FD)
The Chargers are allowing an average of 73.5 yards per game to opposing TEs. That sounds like the floor for Goedert here. In his two games without Zach Ertz, Goedert is averaging 4.5-71 on six targets. This will be the week that he scores, too.

DFS Sleepers

Jared Cook, Chargers @ PHI
($3,300 DK, $5,200 FD)
Philly has allowed six TE scores since Week 3. Over that same span opposing TE rooms are averaging 7.3-68. Cook didn’t do much last week, but he does have two scores in the three games prior to that.

Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos @ DAL
($2,600 DK, $4,500 FD)
Okwuegbunam was solid last year while Noah Fant was out. Dallas has given up 15-174-1 to the position over the last three weeks against so-so TEs. If Fant misses this game due to COVID, Albert O. could leave you screaming when you finish in the money.