Davis Mills fantasy football – Syndication Server

NFL preseason Week 1 fantasy football recap

Reviewing all of the notable fantasy football performances from Week 1 exhibition play.

While NFL preseason stats ultimately don’t matter in the quest for a fantasy football championship, that’s not to say it those numbers are entirely useless to track. Exhibition action gives us a glimpse into unearthed gems and allows gamers to recalibrate late-round flier rankings. After all, just getting an opportunity to showcase one’s talent can be the difference in making a roster or not, which sometimes is enough to create an inroad for a chance during the regular season.

With that established, here’s a spin around the noteworthy performances — good and otherwise — over the first week of the preseason. Since the NFL splits the games up over several days, be sure to check back multiple times for updates.

Can the Houston Texans’ QB situation produce any fantasy value?

Will C.J. Stroud start Week 1? If so, what kind of fantasy value does he offer?

The Houston Texans are once again looking to the future at quarterback after selecting Ohio State product C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

However, even though Stroud is fully expected to sit atop the depth chart, Houston has yet to name the rookie signal-caller its starter, leaving the door open for veteran Davis Mills to retain the job.

After showing promise during his rookie season, Mills struggled mightily in 2022, throwing five more picks, or one every 32 attempts (seven fewer), and posting a QB rating that was 10 points lower as compared to his rookie season, ultimately finishing as QB21.

While he should certainly shoulder a lot of the blame for that showing, Mills also dealt with a lackluster receiving corps that was short on options, partly due to injuries.

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The real upside in Houston’s quarterbacks room comes from Stroud, who is an unknown in terms of how he’ll pan out but does possess an intriguing skill set for fantasy football managers. Stroud didn’t do much running in college, instead opting to operate from the pocket. He doesn’t have elite wheels, though Stroud is functionally mobile and may utilize it more in the pros while adjusting to the speed of the game.

We simply can’t know for sure if Stroud will indeed use that aspect of his skill set more, nor do we know if offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will design runs for his young quarterback to make things easier. Thus, you’re really relying on a rookie to do enough through the air to be a fantasy asset, which is a risky proposition.

Another big question mark for both quarterbacks is the receivers room, a group that doesn’t spark any excitement. Veteran Robert Woods was added in free agency, but he’s 31 and showed major signs of decline in 2022 with the Tennessee Titans, even by the standards of a guy coming off a torn ACL.

John Metchie is not technically a new addition since he was drafted last year, but he didn’t play a single game because of a battle with leukemia, making him a total unknown.

Then there’s Nico Collins, who many thought was poised for a breakout year before he disappointed. Collins also was unable to stay healthy, leading to even more concerns about him.

His best target arguably is tight end Dalton Schultz, which means we should see a great deal of dink-and-dunk passing as the offseason acquisition isn’t much of a big-play weapon.

If there are positives to point toward, it’s that Texans signal-callers will have a solid offensive line, with the Texans bringing back a group that finished with the 13th-fewest sacks allowed last season. The running game is competent and should help take some pressure off the winner of this quarterback competition.

Fantasy football takeaway

The bottom line is this: No matter who wins the starting job, fantasy owners should not be depending on either Texans quarterback to be their No. 1 option. It’s not a stretch to also extend that sentiment to the QB2 slot.

If we were to pick one to emerge as a fantasy asset in 2023, it would easily be Stroud. But, again, that will greatly depend upon how often he uses his legs. Until we see it, or he proves to be a high-volume, high-production passer with a suspect receiving corps, he’s no more than a desperation waiver option.

Fantasy football: 5 quarterback breakout candidates for 2022

Trey Lance is going to win leagues this season.

Everyone wants to draft Josh Allen in fantasy football this year, but are you willing to spend a third or even a second-round pick to get him?

If not, there are many other productive options at quarterback this season, with QBs 2-10 all capable of posting big numbers this fall.

If you decide to wait until really late to draft a QB (or if you play in a two-QB league), consider these five QB breakout candidates who have the potential to outperform their average draft positions this season.

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Ranking second-year quarterbacks most likely to break out

Breaking down the fantasy football outlooks for second-year passers.

While 2022 was a noteworthy exception, a typical NFL draft is dotted with quarterbacks at the top who are given the “can’t miss” tag. In 2021, there were more than usual. The top three picks went quarterback, and two more joined in over the next 12 picks.

To the surprise of many, it wasn’t Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Justin Fields who made the biggest rookie splash. It was Mac Jones and Davis Mills who led the QB Class of 2021.

Given the quick ascent of 2020 rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert (and, to a lesser extent, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts), the timetable for a young franchise quarterback to produce is getting shorter.

We take a deep dive on the six quarterbacks in question and their selling points to make a jump in their fantasy value in Year 2.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence was the first overall pick in 2021 and widely hailed as the best quarterback to come to the NFL since Andrew Luck. Surrounded by a brutal supporting cast and mired by a coaching disaster, he threw just 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.

After throwing seven interceptions in his first three games, he didn’t throw a pick in nine of the final 14.
He completed just 59.6 percent of his passes, but in his last three games, Lawrence completed 66 of 98 passes (67.3 percent).
He showed some ability as a scrambler, rushing five or more times in eight games and finishing second on the team with 334 rushing yards.
Jacksonville gave him more explosive weapons to work with this offseason, adding speedy wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to join Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, as well as adding TE Evan Engram.
The Jaguars addressed its porous offensive line, adding veteran guard Brandon Scherff and drafting center Luke Fortner (third round).

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Wilson came to the NFL to a relatively barren cupboard of offensive playmakers. As the season progressed, he became a better game manager after taking too many risks early. He learned quickly the wide-open style at BYU doesn’t necessarily translate to the NFL.

After throwing 11 interceptions in his first eight games, he had none in his final five starts.
He showed some ability as a situational runner, scoring four rushing touchdowns in his final seven games.
Wilson possesses all the intangibles a quarterback needs, including accuracy, decision-making, and the ability to make plays when they break down.
The Jets were ravaged by WR injuries last season with free agent signee Corey Davis missing eight games and Elijah Moore missing six. If the top receivers are healthy, Wilson’s numbers will climb.
New York invested a first-round draft pick on Garrett Wilson, a tremendous route runner who can play inside or outside and provides another weapon.

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Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers made the bold climb to No. 3 in the 2021 draft for Lance, who made just 17 starts at North Dakota State. He’s expected to be the starter, but if Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) isn’t traded, there will be a legitimate competition on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

Lance is the biggest unknown among the quarterbacks at the top of the Class of 2021.
The best pure athlete of the group with a combination of size, arm strength and speed
Has the best supporting cast of any of these six QBs
He threw five touchdowns on just 71 passes and in his two starts ran 24 times for 120 yards.
Lance plays in an offense that runs the ball effectively and takes the pressure off the quarterback more than most offenses.
Two significant changes to the interior offensive line could become a negative factor

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Fields was supposed to be given time to learn before replacing Andy Dalton. Dalton was injured in Week 2 and Fields was thrown into the fire. He showed incredible skill throwing on the run but had far too many disastrous throws that often negated his positives.

In his first three starts, he threw 57 passes, completed 29 with one touchdown. In his last two starts, he threw 72 passes, completed 44 with three TDs.
He averaged almost six yards per rushing attempt and posted 103 rushing yards against San Francisco and 74 against Green Bay.
Gets a revamped receiver corps, including Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Tajae Sharpe and Dante Pettis to go with Darnell Mooney. This group will learn and grow together under a first-year head coach (Matt Eberflus) as well as a rookie offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy (modified West Coast).
He has no competition … unless you consider journeyman Trevor Siemian competition.
He plays in what many consider the weakest top-to-bottom division in the NFC.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

Jones was the fourth quarterback taken, but when Cam Newton was cut after the preseason, it was Jones’ team. A year into the Patriots system, Bill Belichick has his protege ready to take his next step.

Led all rookie quarterbacks with 3,801 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, a 67.6 completion percentage, and a 92.5 passer rating
He completed 70 percent or more of his passes in nine games.
He’s never been a runner, so his focus on improving his game is solely on passing.
He has all of his primary receivers back from last year, plus James White returning from a season-ending hip injury and DeVante Parker entering as a new weapon.
The Patriots coaching staff has a penchant for calling plays that keep a quarterback safe and not taking unnecessary risks. There’s no clear offensive play-caller with Josh McDaniels now the head coach in Vegas, but the system isn’t expected to change much, if at all.

Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Davis was intended to be the No. 3 guy in Houston, but with Deshaun Watson out and Tyrod Taylor hurt, he started 11 games, throwing for 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and passer rating of 88.5.

He has no competition with Watson and Taylor gone.
In his first nine games (seven starts), he had eight touchdowns and four interceptions. In his last four starts, he produced eight touchdowns vs. two interceptions.
Mills logged four 300-yard passing games – most among the 2021 class.
Houston has what could be the worst run game in the league and a leaky, which forces passing.
The Texans have cobbled some receiver depth with Brandin Cooks, Chris Conley, Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Moore and rookie John Metchie III.

Fantasy football outlook

There isn’t a player in this group who is likely to ascend to QB1 status (a top 12 fantasy player), but they’re all in the QB2 range with varied levels of upside.

Although he likely has the lowest ceiling, right now Jones has the highest floor and should have the top ranking.
Fields checks in at No. 2 because of the schedule he faces and lack of competition in Chicago. He will need to get the most of his weaponry, however, and is the riskiest of the top three.
The addition of speed receivers moves Lawrence up to No. 3 but not to the top spot yet.
Wilson is No. 4, because the Jets are still a year away from having an offense that clicks.
Lance slips in at No. 5 because, like Herbert and Burrow, comes to a team with offensive weapons, but needs Jimmy G gone to solidify his value.
Davis (again) is No. 6, but by season’s end he may be the most impressive (again).

It wouldn’t be a total surprise if Lance finishes as the No. 1 of this group, nor would it be a shocker if Lawrence ended up there, either. Both need a few breaks to go their respective ways before we’re comfortable making such a prediction. We’ll keep tabs on these situations as training camp provides more clarity on some of the unsettled scenarios.