Fantasy football battle: Dallas Goedert vs. Mike Gesicki vs. Dawson Knox

How does this trio of tight ends stack up against each other?

For those who choose to wait on drafting tight ends to fill other positions first in fantasy football drafts, there are still quality players available once the shelves begin to empty, but they aren’t viewed as “can’t miss” fantasy prospects. They all have some concerns keeping them from being one of the top guys.

We take a look at three of those prospects at the bottom end of the TE1 grouping and where to rank them – Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles), Mike Gesicki, of the Miami Dolphins, and the Buffalo BillsDawson Knox. Each has some strong selling points, but they also have some cause for pause on draft day.

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Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 9

Which players are on the rise and who’s taking a midseason tumble?

In many sports, the arrival of the trade deadline is something that is looked forward to as the also-rans in any given season are given the opportunity to build for the future by unloading talented veterans to a contending team.

It typically isn’t that way in the NFL, where there are always rumors of big names trading places, but it rarely happens. The trade deadline is 4 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Nov. 2, and there will be a flurry of rumors of players moving to new teams, but too often the rumors don’t become reality.

For fantasy owners, this can be an important time if you have any of the players on the trade block. Owners of Zach Ertz are elated that he finally got out of Philly after months of contention and goes to Arizona – a high-octane offense in need of a playmaking tight end.

Some players have been disappointments, mired on fantasy benches or a “silk hat on a pig” type (see Brandin Cooks). The deadline will come and go as it always does, but will this year be the year where things are different and there are a flurry of moves? Don’t hold your breath.

Here is the Week 9 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

It’s difficult to overly excited about anyone from the Jets, but Carter has started making a case for himself to be considered. He is the Jets’ leading rusher and has more than twice as many carries as anyone on the team. He has double-digit attempts in each of the last four games and has scored three touchdowns in that span. He is also the team’s leading receiver with 26 receptions – 17 of those (and 162 of his 226 receiving yards) coming in the last two games. He has emerged as a strong daily fantasy player and is making it more difficult to keep out of league lineups.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

It has taken a while for Pittman and Carson Wentz to get on the same page, but Indy started winning when Pittman became the primary focus of the passing offense. In his last four games, Pittman has scored four touchdowns and posted yardage of 86, 89 and 105. He has 594 receiving yards and nobody else on the team has more than 265. He has quietly asserted himself as the go-to receiver in this offense and is still being viewed as a fantasy bargain who has to prove it. That won’t last much longer. He’s already proved it.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

From the day Christian McCaffrey went down in Week 3, the majority of the rushing workload has fallen on Hubbard. In his last four games, he has had a pair of games with 24 rushing attempts (gaining 101 and 82 yards, respectively) and has scored two touchdowns in the last three games. With McCaffrey expected to return, Hubbard’s value may plummet, but he has earned the opportunity to be more than just a McCaffrey handcuff. If CMC goes down again (he missed time due to three injuries last year), you could have a fantasy starter on your hands.

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Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

This may be a little more projecting that anything based on a breakout performance, but what has always held Goedert down was sharing time with Zach Ertz. When Ertz was injured in the past is when Goedert posted his most impressive numbers. In the five games he played prior to the Ertz trade, he was averaging three catches and 43 yards. In the two games since the trade, he has nine catches for 142 yards, including his biggest yardage games of the season (70 and 72 yards). While he isn’t a lock to be a fantasy stud suddenly, his trajectory is pointing strongly up with his primary competition out of the picture.

D’Ernest Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns

Browns fans didn’t know what to make of their run game when both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were out in Week 7 against Denver. The only person who seemed unfazed was head coach Kevin Stefanski, who said Johnson could get the job done. All he did in his first start was rush 22 times for 146 yards and a touchdown. Chubb came back last week and Johnson’s production took a dip. He rushed just four times for 22 yards in Cleveland’s loss to Pittsburgh, but he scored another touchdown. With Hunt expected to be out four to six weeks, Johnson is going to have the opportunity to fill his role in the offense, which could mean double-digit carries and chances in the screen game. He’s a reach, but one that could be dividends for a team in need if he does fill Hunt’s role in the offense.

Fantasy Football Fallers

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

Early in the season, it looked as though the Matthew Stafford might not be as lopsided as it appeared. In his first two games (against San Francisco and Green Bay), Goff threw for 584 yards and five touchdowns. It’s been all downhill in the six games since. He has thrown for less than 225 yards (with his team behind in most if not all of them for considerable stretches of time) four times and has just three TD passes in those six games – including just one in his last four games. He brings nothing as a rusher and has brought next to nothing as a passer. The Lions are in line for the No. 1 overall pick as the lone winless team in the league and that player will likely be Goff’s replacement.

Jonnu Smith, TE, New England Patriots

The Patriots made a big splash in free agency by signing the two hottest tight ends – Smith and Hunter Henry. Both got off to brutal starts, but Henry has turned his fantasy season around, scoring four touchdowns in his last five games. The same can’t be said for Smith. Through eight games, he is averaging less than 24 receiving yards a game and has just one touchdown catch. For a guy who blew up for the Titans last year just in time to make millions, he has been unqualified bust for the Patriots and has rendered himself almost unplayable.

Buffalo Bills running backs

This one has been frustrating for owners of both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Mos has scattered four touchdowns in the first half of the season, but is averaging just 3.7 yards a carries with his worst two weekly averages coming in the last two weeks against teams that have struggled to stop the run (Tennessee and Miami). Singletary is averaging 5.1 yards a carry but hasn’t had more rushes than Moss since Week 2 and has a total of 18 carries in the last three games. With neither being a threat as receivers, it has become impossible to play either of them and expect production.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Allen is one of the rare players who historically has himself on both the Risers and Fallers list in the same season. The problem with Allen is consistency from a fantasy perspective. In seven games, he has scored just two touchdowns (one on Sunday), but after hitting 100 yards in each of his first two games, he hasn’t topped 77 yards in the five games since and has three games with 50 or fewer receiving yards in three of those. It’s impossible to recommend benching Allen, because he came to fantasy rosters to start every week and you get the feeling he’s going to have another one of his three- or four-game streaks where he plays lights out and scores a handful of touchdowns. It’s what Allen does.

Eric Ebron, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

The best thing that happened to fantasy owners with Ebron is that he was inactive Sunday with a hamstring injury and couldn’t be played. That’s the good news. The bad news is that a player who has posted some monster weeks over the years is a complete afterthought in this offense. Fellow Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth had as many receptions (seven) in Pittsburgh’s Week 7 game with Seattle than Ebron has had in the six games he has played. The numbers are staggeringly bad – seven catches for 47 yards and no touchdowns. The Steelers may try to move him at the trade deadline, but with those numbers who wants him?

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 6

Will we hear “Hurts to Ertz” throughout the Thursday night telecast?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6

Tracking my predictions: 2-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Being on a two-game winning streak heading into Week 6 — after a few bad beats, no less — has me feeling much better about getting this thing turned around following an 0-3 start. Last week, the recommendation was New Orleans Saints WR Deonte Harris for a projected 18.8 PPR points. He broke the 80 percent threshold with a two-catch, 72-yard, one-TD performance (15.2 PPR) before exiting with an injury.

TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A few reasons make Ertz a risky play in fantasy football this week, but the upside to starting him outweighs those possible pitfalls. Tight end Dallas Goedert was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list Tuesday, meaning he has two clear the league’s protocol by passing tests in consecutive days as a fully vaccinated player. That means this goes right to the wire for a Thursday Night Football contest.

Other reasons for concern include the Buccaneers are exceptionally susceptible to attacks by wide receivers, and Philadelphia has a trio of capable weapons in DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins.

Then there’s the a backfield with a a pair of capable pass-catching options who could see more targets this week with the Bucs being so strong at limiting the running game. Teams tend to use short-area passing as a means to avoid the trenches and find a little freedom in space. Philadelphia has largely ignored its best playmaker in running back Miles Sanders, which I don’t see changing against Tampa’s run defense. There will be a few vicinity-based targets lost to RB Kenneth Gainwell that could go to Ertz.

Tampa did a remarkable job at limiting Miami’s Mike Gesicki last week as he was just starting to heat up. This point is rather subjective in the sense Miami’s situation is not all too close to Philadelphia’s in that Philly has a better QB and also one who can evade the pass rush in Jalen Hurts.

The Dolphins threw all day long to RB Myles Gaskin (10 catches) and were without two of the top receivers on the team. I won’t pretend it’s a 100 percent fair comparison to the Eagles’ situation for Ertz, but there’s some justifiable concern the play-calling could work in a similar fashion.

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Getting back on track, because this is about why you should play Ertz and not why to avoid him: Presuming Goedert is indeed absent, the bulk of the positional targets almost exclusively will be Ertz’s as undrafted rookie Jack Stoll has no track record to suggest otherwise.

The Buccaneers will be without linebacker Lavonte David and safety Antoine Winfield Jr., both of whom play key roles in defending the tight end position. DE Jason Pierre-Paul is questionable with shoulder and hand injuries. He not only applies considerable quarterback pressure but also drops into coverage as well as most linebackers.

Unlike with Miami’s Jacoby Brissett, Hurts can move around to buy time and direct his receivers to get open. Tampa Bay is more than capable of applying heat, even though the sack figures haven’t been there this year. Hurts’ escapability negates some of this edge, regardless of right tackle Lane Johnson being out again as he tends to personal matters.

After two quiet games to start the year, Ertz caught 10 of 15 targets for 113 yards and a score in Weeks 3 and 4 combined, going for 12 or more PPR points in each game. He was targeted six times last week vs. Carolina but held to just one catch — that’s a rarity, and credit goes to a quality Panthers defense of TEs.

The same cannot be said for that of Tampa Bay. Even when healthy, this group has struggled to limit the position dating back to last year, and some of it is by design — keep everything in front of the safeties and let them make tackles to avoid the big play. Tight ends have posted five games topping 10 PPR points against the Buccaneers so far, including last week when Tampa held Gesicki to just 8.3 points. All three touchdowns came in Weeks 3 (LAR) and 4 (NE) to teams not known as being TE powerhouses.

Ertz can paper cut this defense to death. I’m not expecting some kind of true renaissance for the nearly 31-year-old veteran, but he still has the chops to get it done for gamers in leagues that reward receptions, even if Ertz fails to find the end zone. Tight end is a volatile bunch. Between several key injuries and the arrival of bye weeks, gamers could do much, much worse than rolling the dice on Ertz turning back the clock for one night.

My projection: 5 receptions, 66 yards, 1 TD (17.6 PPR points)