Tag: Cynthia Frelund

NFL analytics expert predicts Commanders’ win total for 2023

Who wins more in 2023: The Commanders or the Giants?

[anyclip pubname=”2103″ widgetname=”0016M00002U0B1kQAF_M8036″]

How many games will the Washington Commanders win in 2023?

Head coach Ron Rivera is entering his fourth season as head coach of Washington. Rivera has a lot of pressure to win in 2023 with new ownership in place this summer. Additionally, Rivera has yet to win more than eight games during his three seasons with the Commanders.

Washington was in contention for a playoff spot last season, but a late collapse in December kept the Commanders home, while the rest of the NFC East held three of the four spots in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Cynthia Frelund is an analytics expert for NFL.com and recently used her formula to predict win totals for all 32 teams in 2023. As expected, Frelund is high on the Philadelphia Eagles to repeat as NFC East winners, with the Dallas Cowboys finishing in second place and earning a wild card.

Here are Frelund’s projected win totals for all four NFC East teams:

  • Eagles: 11.1
  • Cowboys: 9.6
  • Giants: 7.9
  • Commanders: 6.6

Frelund was complimentary of Washington’s wide receivers, calling the group one of the best in the NFL. She is high on Washington’s defense, saying if quarterback Sam Howell can give the Commanders a lead, Frelund believes Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Montez Sweat, and the rest of Washington’s front can succeed in getting to the opposing quarterback.

So much depends on Howell. If he delivers, you can bet the over on Frelund’s win projections for the Commanders.

Cynthia Frelund projects Chiefs will have NFL’s top offense in 2023

The #Chiefs’ offense already faces lofty expectations as they look to secure Kansas City its third ring of the Patrick Mahomes era. | from @TheJohnDillon

Even after the Kansas City Chiefs decided to focus on their defense in the NFL draft, experts are still predicting a monster season for them in 2023 as they defend their Super Bowl title.

When NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund broke down the numbers in a recent analysis of offenses around the league, she came to the conclusion that Kansas City was likely to have the highest projected win share of any team next season.

Last season, with Tyreek Hill exiting and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling coming aboard, the Chiefs relied more on the short-passing game than they had in the past — and Patrick Mahomes proved he can adapt to any play style, logging 31 touchdown passes on throws of 10 air yards or less, 12 more than anyone else in the NFL (per Next Gen Stats). Kansas City, meanwhile, ranked first in the NFL in scoring and yards per play. I look forward to seeing what new plays, alignments and wrinkles Andy Reid folds into the offense this year, with the departures of Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman leaving room for Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and rookie Rashee Rice to step up around perennial pass-catching anchor Travis Kelce.

At a mark of 8.7, the team Chiefs are predicted to set the standard with Patrick Mahomes under center and a cast of returning talent that should continue to cruise amid the AFC’s offensive arms race. She pointed to the additions of Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith to the team’s offensive line, and second-round selection Rashee Rice to the receiving corps as factors that could push them to the remarkably high number.

Another factor working in Kansas City’s favor: the additions of veteran tackles Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith. My models have shown that improved offensive-line play is not just correlated but causal to significant year-over-year increases in first-down and touchdown probabilities. Despite the loss of Orlando Brown, the presence of Taylor and Smith on the line projects to keep the Chiefs’ offense rolling, even if that success is achieved in different ways yet again.

Championship defense can be a fickle thing, though, and Kansas City will have a target on its back in every game they play in 2023, so they’ll face an uphill battle to win their second straight Super Bowl. Nonetheless, if the Chiefs’ offense lives up to these lofty expectations during the regular season, Kansas City should have a shot to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs and home-field advantage for elimination games to add another ring to their collection.

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1]

Ranking difficulty of Jets’ 2023 matchups based on win projections

How the Jets’ opponents stack up in estimated wins

We hear all the time about a team’s strength of schedule, but those numbers are based on the previous season’s records. Sometimes, you just get a sense of how tough a schedule will be. The Jets already knew they would face a uphill battle in 2023 even before the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles both reached Super Bowl LVII.

Here, we’ll get a better sense of the strength of the Jets’ schedule and we’ll rank the 14 opponents for the Jets based on the projected win totals from NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund.

NFL analytics expert names a ‘win-win’ trade for the Commanders in the 1st round

This is an extremely unlikely scenario.

Washington Commanders general manager Martin Mayhew spoke at the team’s pre-draft press conference last week and all but ruled out trading up.

While Mayhew didn’t say he would not trade up, he made it clear he preferred to move back because it’s a strategy that’s always worked well for him. Look no further than last year when the Commanders moved from No. 11 overall to No. 16, adding two additional picks. Washington moved down again, adding another pick, meaning the initial trade down netted the Commanders three additional selections.

The Commanders have multiple needs ahead of the 2023 NFL draft. Washington has done the most homework on the offensive linemen and cornerbacks.

Most mock drafts have the Commanders landing either an offensive lineman or cornerback in each of the first two rounds. However, sitting at No. 16, Washington likely doesn’t have a chance to either of the top two cornerback prospects [Devon Witherspoon & Christian Gonzalez], or the draft’s top three offensive tackles [Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson & Broderick Jones].

So, could Washington move up?

NFL analytics expert, Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com, named four trades that would be “win-win” for both sides in Thursday’s first round. Her top trade was the Commanders moving to No. 7 in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders.

Washington receives:

  • Round 1, 2023: No. 7 overall

Las Vegas receives:

  • Round 1, 2023: No. 16 overall
  • Round 2, 2023: No. 47
  • Round 4, 2023: No. 118 (or a future fourth-rounder)

Frelund explains:

In the primary value of this move is in Washington’s ability to leapfrog ahead of Atlanta at No. 8 overall to select a quarterback — the versatility to also perhaps nab the first or second cornerback off the board (depending on Detroit’s move; my math suggests Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez have separated themselves from other CBs in this class, which is backed up by the front office execs and scouts I’ve surveyed) or the first offensive lineman at No. 7 is an added benefit. There’s belief that the Texans could pass on a quarterback at No. 2 — which could alter the trade price for QBs later on — and should the passer the Commanders believe in still be available after the Colts pick at No. 4, Washington brass had better get to the phone.

Vegas is in a great spot here, already possessing a slew of picks, including 11 total on Days 2 and 3; trading down in this scenario nets the Raiders at least an additional second-round selection, with just a slight decrease (by less than 3 percentage points) in their chances of landing an above average contributor at No. 16 vs. No. 7, whether they target either pass rusher, corner, tackle or (even better) a tight end. So, I don’t know the Raiders’ board, but the added equity would allow them to fairly easily trade back up into the end of the first round, should a quarterback they want to develop — or a player at another key position who surprisingly falls — be available. In essence, Vegas has the luxury of moving all over the board to target their priority players.

I don’t buy it. She mentions a quarterback. Washington has given no indication it would be moving up for a quarterback. The Commanders like Hendon Hooker, but that would likely be in the second round if he’s available. Head coach Ron Rivera has spoken of roster building this offseason. Trading away three valuable picks for one isn’t his — or Mayhew’s style.

Of course, if the Commanders secretly love a quarterback, then it’s never a bad move to go get your guy. However, moving to No. 7 for a cornerback is extremely unlikely to happen.

It would be fun, though.

[mm-video type=playlist id=01eqbykgy681k112p8 player_id=01eqbvhghtkmz2182d image=]

Commanders land Oregon star in NFL.com’s analytics-based mock draft

This would be a steal for the Commanders.

Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com recently revealed her second mock draft of draft season. Frelund’s mock drafts are different than many of the ones we see.

Instead of just lining up needs and who is available, Frelund, NFL.com’s analytics expert, has a specific model she uses to project draft prospects to NFL teams. Her model pairs prospects with teams based on optimizing wins for the upcoming season only.

The early part of Frelund’s new mock draft featured no surprise. Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud goes No. 1 to Carolina, with Bryce Young [Texans], Will Anderson Jr. [Cardinals], Anthony Richardson [Colts] and Tyree Wilson [Seahawks].

It’s at No. 6 where Frelund begins to shake things up as Pittsburgh defensive tackle Calijah Kancy lands with the Detroit Lions.

When it came time for the Washington Commanders at No. 16, Frelund gave them a cornerback. That cornerback is Christian Gonzalez of Oregon, whom many believe is this draft’s top defensive back prospect.

Sticking with Gonzalez here. His skill set should help a secondary that needs to increase its turnover production.

Gonzalez is a player many have going in the top 10 of mock drafts. Therefore, it would be a surprise to see him fall to No. 16. Frelund has Gonzalez as the second cornerback off the board behind Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon at No. 14.

Gonzalez has everything NFL teams covet in a No. 1 cornerback. His combination of size, length, athleticism and experience make him an exciting prospect. 

[mm-video type=playlist id=01eqbykgy681k112p8 player_id=01eqbvhghtkmz2182d image=]

Vikings get aggressive cornerback in latest NFL Mock Draft

The Minnesota Vikings need help at cornerback. On Friday, Cynthia Frelund sent them a physical corner in her latest NFL Mock Draft.

When Brian Flores was hired as the Minnesota Vikings’ defensive coordinator for the upcoming season, fans immediately recognized that this would be a more aggressive-style defense. The Vikings will need that throughout their defense, but especially at cornerback.

On Friday, Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com released her latest mock draft and had the Vikings taking Georgia cornerback Kelee Ringo.

“The Vikings’ secondary could benefit in particular from Ringo’s change-of-direction speed.”

Ringo is a big, physical cornerback who can help fill a need at cornerback for the Vikings. There are some concerns about his athleticism, though. While he does have good speed, there has been speculation that maybe he’d be better suited for the safety position. If the Vikings go this route and take Ringo, there will be some coaching involved in order to help him reach his full potential.

If the Vikings are successful in tapping into that potential, they could have their first lockdown corner since Xavier Rhodes.

[lawrence-auto-related count=5 category=595424714]

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ja0n4hxUMYw]

Seahawks among NFL’s 5 most overperforming offensive units

The Seattle Seahawks are a perfect example of a team who exceeded preseason expectations last year.

NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Freland took a look at some very important statistics from last season to determine the five most overperforming offenses in the league last year. Based on her model, which measured the difference between preseason expectations and actual game outputs, the Seattle Seahawks topped her list.

“I don’t have a way to isolate the win share of deep passes, but I can say that Geno Smith’s deep passing, especially early in the season, drives much of this final ranking,” Frelund writes. “Next Gen Stats shows that Smith’s 13 deep touchdown passes (20-plus air yards) paced the NFL in 2022. Nine of those came in the first eight weeks, and that hot start (Seattle went 5-3) changed the course of the Seahawks’ season. In the category of downfield passes (all pass attempts of 10-plus air yards downfield), Smith’s 27 TDs are tied for the most, with Josh Allen — and Smith had one fewer interception than Allen on those attempts (eight to Allen’s nine). Smith’s 112.8 passer rating on such passes ranked third among all QBs who attempted more than 50 downfield passes.”

“The Seahawks’ pass catchers ranked 14th in win share before the season, but the combination of the O-line (which started ranked 30th and ended the season at 25th) and uncertainty at QB drove the low forecasted effectiveness of the passing offense,” Frelund continues. “Smith far exceeded that forecast, setting a franchise season record for completions (399), attempts (572), completion percentage (69.8) and passing yards (4,282). He was also the first Seattle QB to lead the NFL in completion percentage since Dave Krieg in 1991 (65.6 percent).”

In the simplest terms  . . . while the Seahawks failed to go deep into the playoffs, Seattle logged a much, much better season than most predicted.

[mm-video type=playlist id=01eqbycpfe4qgv9nf6 player_id=01eqbvhghtkmz2182d image=]

[lawrence-related id=100454]

[vertical-gallery id=100395]

NFL analytics expert predicts Commanders’ win total for 2022

How many games do the Commanders win in 2022?

The Washington Commanders kick off the 2022 regular season against the Jacksonville Jaguars from FedEx Field. For Washington, it’s been a long offseason for many headlines off the field. The biggest headline related to Washington’s roster was the acquisition of quarterback Carson Wentz.

In Ron Rivera’s first two seasons as head coach, Washington won seven games each season. Washington surprisingly won seven games and the NFC East in 2020 before finishing with a disappointing 7-10 record in 2021.

With an upgrade at quarterback for 2022, can the Commanders win more than seven games for the first time in Rivera’s tenure?

NFL.com’s analytics expert, Cynthia Frelund, recently previewed the 2022 season and predicted win totals for every team using her formula. Where did Washington land in Frelund’s projections?

Frelund’s projects give the Commanders 7.8 wins. That’s not enough for a playoff spot and third in the NFC East behind the Eagles and Cowboys.

Ceiling: 9.2

Floor: 6.2

FanDuel over/under: 8.5

Terry McLaurin earns more than 1,000 receiving yards in 54.4 percent of simulations and at least 1,100 yards 52 percent of the time, with his most likely TD number being seven. This makes him WR15 — with upside — in my fantasy model.

Frelund’s floor and ceiling appear on target with what many believe the Commanders can accomplish in 2022 with Wentz under center. So much depends on Wentz. If he plays to his talent level and cuts down on some of the head-scratching mistakes, Washington can win more than nine games.

As we’ve stated time and again, the Commanders’ 2022 season is about a bunch of ifs, with Wentz being the biggest.

[mm-video type=playlist id=01eqbykgy681k112p8 player_id=none image=https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/plugins/mm-video/images/playlist-icon.png]

Seahawks WR DK Metcalf named one of NFL’s most underappreciated players

NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund explains why Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf is one of the NFL’s most underappreciated players.

[mm-video type=playlist id=01eqbycpfe4qgv9nf6 player_id=none image=https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/plugins/mm-video/images/playlist-icon.png]

Wide receivers around the league have been landing big paydays lately, but for now, Seattle Seahawks wideout DK Metcalf ranks among the NFL’s most underappreciated players.

NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund took a look at all 32 rosters to determine who she thought was the most underappreciated using her context-based models and Metcalf easily fit the bill for Seattle.

“As soon as this article publishes, the Seahawks can go ahead and show their appreciation for this man. I can’t believe he fits my criteria, but the 2019 second-rounder currently has only one Pro Bowl nod so far. Metcalf has become one of the NFL’s most dominant perimeter threats, racking up the third-most receiving yards when aligned wide (2,757) since he entered the league, per NGS… In fact, over the past three seasons he leads the league in TDs of 10-plus air yards (20) and ranks second in go route TDs (11).”

Metcalf is about to enter the final year of his rookie contract and has every reason to expect a hefty raise when he signs his next deal, which hopefully keeps him in Seattle for seasons to come.

[lawrence-related id=89779]

[listicle id=89468]

NFL Network analytics expert on which dynamic WR is the best fit for Eagles

NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund on which dynamic WR is the best fit for the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2022 NFL Draft

[mm-video type=playlist id=01eqbx4gfbwm323hbt player_id=none image=https://theeagleswire.usatoday.com/wp-content/plugins/mm-video/images/playlist-icon.png]

We’re just hours away from the start of the 2022 NFL draft and discussions about the Eagles and a top wide receiver prospect continue, one NFL Network analyst worked to find the perfect fit for Nick Sirianni’s offense.

NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund used her context-based data models to evaluate some of the top draft prospects at the wide receiver position — while providing a pro comparison and ideal team fit for each.

Even with Eagles fans clamoring for Jameson Williams, Frelund believes Arkansas’s Treylon Burks is the best overall fit for Philadelphia.

Drawing a positional comparison to former Cowboys star Dez Bryant, using his strong frame and deceptive speed to dominate cornerbacks, while landing among the top performers at Yards After The Catch.

Hoping to become the next Deebo Samuel, Burks is spectacular with the ball in his hands, at all three levels.

[listicle id=666007]

[listicle id=665656]

[lawrence-related id=666119,666112,666082,666065]