Tag: College Football Playoff 2022

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2023-2023 College Football Playoff? Before Week 13, here are the seven teams still alive and what they need to do to get in.

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Tennessee is now out of the College Football Playoff mix after getting rocked by South Carolina, and any dream that North Carolina might have had went bye-bye after a shocking loss to Georgia Tech.

So now we’re down to seven teams realistically in the chase for the College Football Playoff. What do they need to do to get in, and who has the easiest and hardest path?

This isn’t a ranking of who the top seven teams are – that’s for our ranking of all 131 teams – this is about a combination of talent, clearest path, and overall pecking order.

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College Football Playoff Chase Ranking Path Of The 7 Teams Still Alive

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CFN 1-131 Rankings | Rankings by Conference
College Football Playoff Prediction: Nov. 22
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7. LSU Tigers (9-2)

Remaining Schedule: at Texas A&M, SEC Championship vs Georgia

What LSU has to do to make the College Football Playoff: It has to look the part over the next two weeks.

The 41-10 win over UAB was what a team in the College Football Playoff is supposed to do, and the wins over Alabama and Arkansas were nice, but those were close, tight battles. Now it has to annihilate a mediocre Texas A&M team on the road and it needs to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship.

That, and it needs two of the three champions – assuming the Ohio State-Michigan winner doesn’t lose the Big Ten title – from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12 to have at least two losses.

Will LSU make the College Football Playoff? 1) It might have problems on the road against a Texas A&M team that will see this season finale as its World Cup final. 2) It’ll probably beat Texas A&M, but it probably won’t beat Georgia. 3) If it beats Georgia, it’s still probably not in over Georgia – unless it’s a blowout – and it’s unlikely that it’ll get help from three of the other four Power Five conference championships.

– Latest Bowl Projections

6. Clemson Tigers (10-1)

Remaining Schedule: South Carolina, ACC Championship vs North Carolina

What Clemson has to do to make the College Football Playoff: Win out and get help.

It actually caught a wonderful break that South Carolina is coming of the blowout win over Tennessee. Now, beating the Gamecocks would be a massive boost in the College Football Playoff chase with the rough performance against Notre Dame still fresh.

Sticking with the idea of a 12-1 Power Five conference champion getting in if there aren’t any other viable options, Clemson needs USC to lose once more – that’s the most realistic key possibility – and looking the part against South Carolina and North Carolina would be nice.

Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff? Sticking with the call throughout most of the year … yes. The call is that Clemson wins its final two games and TCU somehow has a problem either against Iowa State – unlikely – or in the Big 12 Championship.

The committee would almost certainly take a 12-1 ACC champion over a 12-1 Big 12 team without a championship. If that happens and if Georgia pushes LSU out of the way – and/or if USC loses once more – Clemson is in.

– College Football Playoff Top 25 Prediction

5. USC Trojans (10-1)

Remaining Schedule: Notre Dame, Pac-12 Championship

What USC has to do to make the College Football Playoff: Go 2-0.

The only reason USC isn’t in the top four is because it’s more likely to lose one of its final two games. However, if there were three options the committee had to take – SEC champion Georgia, the Big Ten champion, and 13-0 Big 12 champion TCU – 12-1 USC would 99% surely get the nod over 12-1 Clemson.

And why? Next up for USC is the Notre Dame team that whacked Clemson 35-14.

Will USC make the College Football Playoff? Yeah – let’s go with it. It’s going to be a fight, but after beating UCLA, if USC goes 2-0 with wins over Notre Dame and either Oregon, Utah or Washington in the Pac-12 Championship, it’s done. It’s not going to be easy, but the team rose to the challenge against the Bruins.

NEXT: College Football Playoff Chase Rankings Top 4

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2023-2023 College Football Playoff? After Week 11, here are the nine teams still alive and what they need to do to get in.

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Who realistically has a path to the College Football Playoff, and what are the chances of getting there?

If you really, really, really tried, there might be some way to figure out how Alabama could get in, and the College Football Playoff committee can choose to take anyone it wants, but for the most part there are nine teams still in the chase.

Ole Miss lost to Alabama last week – it’s realistically done. So is UCLA after losing to Arizona and Oregon after dropping the date against Washington.

No, this isn’t a ranking of how good the teams are right now. That’s for our 1-131 ranking of all the teams. This is based on 1) how easy and clean the path appears to be to get in, and most importantly, 2) the pecking order overall.

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College Football Playoff Chase: Ranking Path Of The 9 Teams Still Alive

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CFN 1-131 Rankings | Rankings by Conference
College Football Playoff Prediction: Nov. 15
Bowl Bubble: Every School’s Bowl Situation
Week 12 Early Lines | Bowl Projections
AP Top 25 | Coaches Poll Top 25

9. LSU Tigers (8-2)

What LSU has to do to make the College Football Playoff: It has to be amazing the rest of the way – or even more amazing than it has been over the last few weeks.

It won the West. Start with the shocker that it’s a reloading LSU and not Alabama in the SEC Championship, and be amazed that Texas A&M flopped so hard and Ole Miss couldn’t rise up. The chance was there, and Brian Kelly’s team took it.

LSU has to roll past UAB and Texas A&M without so much as a small bump, and it has to look unstoppable against what needs to be a 12-0 No. 1 Georgia. Win the SEC Championship, and roll the dice.

Remaining Schedule: UAB, at Texas A&M, SEC Championship vs Georgia

Will LSU make the College Football Playoff? Nah. Actually, that’s a little too glib. If it wins out, then yes, it’ll be really, really, really hard to keep LSU out from a theoretical standpoint.

How do you put Georgia – and maybe Tennessee – in with a chance to win the national title and now the team that actually won the conference championship?

It’ll take everyone else melting down – a two-loss champion in the Big 12 and Pac-12 might be a must – but first it’s about taking care of home.

Assume the Tigers can’t get by Georgia, and don’t be totally shocked if Texas A&M rises up at home and comes up with something unbelievable. Even so, the path is there, even if it’ll take the College Football Playoff committee breaking precedent and putting in the first two-loss team.

8. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-1)

What North Carolina has to do to make the College Football Playoff: Win out by dominating Georgia Tech, NC State, and then Clemson in the ACC Championship.

It’s going to take a lot of help even if that happens, USC has to lose once more, and it would help if TCU doesn’t win the Big 12 Championship.

But if it comes down to 12-1 ACC Champion North Carolina and 11-1 also-ran Tennessee, the College Football Playoff committee has yet to take a one-loss Power Five champion unless there was another obvious must-have option – like unbeaten Notre Dame in 2018.

Remaining Schedule: Georgia Tech, NC State, ACC Championship vs Clemson

Will  North Carolina make the College Football Playoff? Nah – it’s too heavy a lift with too much traffic in the way even if it gets to 12-1 with an ACC title. If could be stunned by NC State, and it could lose to Clemson, and the other available options might be too good, so no. It might not make it in, but win out and it’ll come extremely close.

7. Tennessee Volunteers (9-1)

What Tennessee has to do to make the College Football Playoff: You know that 66-24 win over Missouri that Tennessee just came up with? Yeah, do that again against South Carolina and Vanderbilt on the road.

The Vols need Georgia to win out impressively to make the 27-13 loss on the road to the unquestioned No. 1 team in America as acceptable as possible. They need to be so dominant that it absolutely has to be included.

But they also need help.

Remaining Schedule: at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt

Will Tennessee make the College Football Playoff? Yeah, but it’s not going to be easy. Tennessee will do its part, but it’s out if Georgia, Big Ten champion, 12-1 or unbeaten TCU, and 12-1 Pac-12 champion USC are all options.

Assume the Trojans will drop a game, and the call is that TCU won’t win the Big 12. Would the College Football Playoff committee break precedent and take an 11-1 team that didn’t win its division over a 12-1 Power Five champion? Flip a coin.

NEXT: College Football Playoff Chase Rankings Top 6

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2023-2023 College Football Playoff? After Week 10, here are the 12 teams still alive and what they need to do to get in.

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Who’s still realistically in the mix for this College Football Playoff thing?

We don’t have an expanded playoff yet meaning it’s a battle for four spots among 130 of the 131 teams – James Madison isn’t eligible this season – playing FBS college football.

Without getting twisted into too much of a pretzel trying to figure out how Alabama can still get in – it can, but it would require a whole slew of crazy meltdowns – there are 12 teams with a realistic path.

A few things to remember.

You’re in if you go unbeaten and win your Power Five conference championship. Don’t try to explain it away, and don’t try to make any sort of argument. That’s not a rule – the College Football Playoff committee can take anyone it wants – but no way, no how, no chance does a 13-0 Power Five champ get left out.

Right now, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and TCU are the four teams in complete control of their respective destinies. Ohio State and Michigan play each other, so there’s a shot that three spots might be filled. So if you’re a fan of someone else still in the mix, root for all of those teams to lose.

Also, the committee looks at Power Five conference champions first. Unless there’s another option that has to be in – like unbeaten Notre Dame in 2018 over 12-1 Big Ten champion Ohio State – you’re almost certainly in if you’re a 12-win Power Five champion …

Maybe. According to precedent that’s the deal, but that could change this year. More on that in a moment.

And finally, no, we’re not getting anyone from the Group of Five conferences this time around. There aren’t any unbeaten Group of Five teams left, so no. Tulane, Coastal Carolina, and independent Liberty … no. Don’t try to make a case because it’s not happening no matter what. That’s not saying it’s fair, it’s just how this CFP committee rolls.

With that, he’s the ranking of the 12 remaining teams realistically still alive in the College Football Playoff chase. No, this isn’t a ranking of how good the teams are right now. This is based on 1) how easy and clean the path appears to be to get in, and most importantly, 2) the pecking order overall.

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College Football Playoff Chase: Ranking The 12 Teams Still Alive After Week 10

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CFN 1-131 Rankings | Rankings by Conference
College Football Playoff Prediction: Nov. 8
Bowl Bubble: Every School’s Bowl Situation
Bowl Projections | Early Week 11 Lines

12. Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)

What Ole Miss has to do to make the College Football Playoff: Again, this is partially based on how clear the path is to get there. It’s there, but it’s rocky.

It’s going to take a little luck along with winning out – an angry Alabama is up next – including a victory over Georgia in the SEC Championship. Do that, and it’s a done deal – in no matter what. Easy peasy.

However, getting to the SEC Championship is going to be a problem even if it wins its next three games.

Remaining Schedule: Alabama, at Arkansas, Mississippi State

Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff? No, but it’s certainly still a reasonable dream. No one’s talking about the possibility because 1) it would require beating Alabama and Georgia, and 2) – thanks to a 45-20 loss – LSU would have to lose one of its final two SEC games against Arkansas or Texas A&M for the Rebels to take the SEC West.

11-1 Ole Miss almost certainly doesn’t get in – there are too many strong teams that will be in the way. That’s why it’s just behind …

11. LSU Tigers (7-2)

What LSU has to do to make the College Football Playoff: It starts by winning out. The dominant 45-20 win over Ole Miss and great victory over Alabama set the path to winning the SEC West, and now if it wins out and takes down – almost certainly – Georgia in the SEC Championship, the respect might be there as the winner of the best league in college football to make it in.

Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas, UAB, at Texas A&M

Will LSU make the College Football Playoff? No. Besides having to run the table with two road games and an SEC title game against Georgia, the 40-13 home loss to Tennessee will probably be too much to overcome even if the team rolls through the next four weeks.

And there’s the history thing. Since this whole thing started back in 2014 there has yet to be a two-loss team in the College Football Playoff. 2017 Auburn was close to being the exception – it might have found its way in had it won the SEC Championship – but it lost 28-7 to Georgia.

The committee might still take a 12-1 Georgia even if it loses to LSU in the conference title game.

10. North Carolina Tar Heels (8-1)

What North Carolina has to do to make the College Football Playoff: Win out and get a little bit of help. The 45-32 loss to Notre Dame wasn’t as bad as what just happened to Clemson against the Irish. It was just early enough in the season to be a blip with a 12-1 record and an ACC Championship.

If the Tar Heels can win out and take down – most likely – Clemson in the ACC Championship, it’ll likely be with a little help. If the other four Power Five conference champions are unbeaten or have one loss, North Carolina would be fifth in a four-team race.

Remaining Schedule: at Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, NC State

Will  North Carolina make the College Football Playoff? No. It’s been a bit too rocky against mediocre teams to think it’ll run the table, and the lack of an A-list win – even if it’s against Clemson – would put it down the pecking order a bit.

9. Clemson Tigers (8-1)

What Clemson has to do to make the College Football Playoff: Win out and be great doing it. The 35-14 loss at Notre Dame might be excused – the 2020 team lost in South Bend and made it in – but the Tigers have to be impressive over the finishing kick.

With three straight home games and – most likely – the ACC Championship, it can still get all the love it if gets hot and looks strong. Again, 12-1 with a Power Five conference championship matters.

Remaining Schedule: Louisville, Miami, South Carolina

Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff? It might be close. Again, these rankings are based on the ease of the path, and right now the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC champions likely have and easier ways to get in.

Part of the hesitation is the South Carolina game – that might be a problem if Clemson isn’t sharp. However, unlike North Carolina from the ACC, the Clemson resumé is solid with wins over Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, and Syracuse.

There’s one other thorn in this that might screw up a 12-1 ACC champion Clemson team …

NEXT: College Football Playoff Chase Rankings Top 8

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff? After Week 12, here are the 8 teams still alive and what they need to do to get in.

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Week 12 Roundup
Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Week 13 opening lines | CFP Top 25 Prediction
Bowl Projections | Week 12 scoreboard
Big Game Reaction: Utah, OSU, OU, Bama
Bowl Bubble: Who still has a shot?

Unless everyone starts losing – like, if Georgia Tech beats Georgia, Auburn beats Alabama, and it gets even weirder from there – there are realistically eight teams left in the College Football Playoff chase.

Wake Forest tapped out, Michigan State was done 30 seconds after getting off the bus in Columbus, and Oregon ran into a Utah buzzsaw.

Those three won’t be joining us for the rest of the College Football Playoff season. Who’s left?

Here’s the ranking of the eight remaining teams based on 1) ease of path to get in, and most importantly, 2) the pecking order, starting with …

8. Oklahoma Sooners (10-1)

It keeps having to be said over and over and over again, don’t assume the College Football Rankings right now hold after the conference championships are done.

Did you win your Power Five conference championship, and did you go unbeaten or finish 12-1? The precedent has been set from the start that you’re in if you do that, and if there isn’t another obvious option.

2017 Ohio State remains the only 12-1 Power Five champ not to get in, and that’s because the committee invoked the Because It’s Alabama clause on an 11-1 team that lost to Auburn – and because Ohio State got obliterated by Purdue.

Oklahoma might not have the best resumé, but the loss to Baylor isn’t that bad. If it beats Oklahoma State twice, it’ll be one of – at most – three 12-1 Power Five conference champs.

Get to 12-1, and Oklahoma is likely in. Blowout Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship – and maybe in Stillwater this week – and it’s a done deal.

So why the lowest-ranked team on the list? The call is that OU doesn’t beat Oklahoma State twice, if it even gets the second chance. That, and the committee really might not like this Sooner team and the rankings aren’t just a mirage.

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1)

The College Football Playoff committee has been in a strange bind when it comes to Notre Dame.

It blew out Wisconsin, and the wins over Purdue, North Carolina, and Virginia – even though the Cavaliers were without QB Brennan Armstrong – are among the eight wins over Power Five programs, and there will certainly be a ninth at Stanford this weekend.

It’s been a bit of a stunner through the early process that the committee hasn’t put the Irish one spot behind Cincinnati and kept them behind Michigan and Michigan State – at least until this week. It’s as if they’re being punished for being the one good team on Cincinnati’s schedule, and losing.

Here’s the strange part, though. Notre Dame is blowing out teams like it wishes Cincinnati had done over the last several weeks.

107-9.

That’s the three-game combined total against Navy, Virginia, and Georgia Tech, but there’s no getting into the College Football Playoff unless 1) Cincinnati loses to free the Irish to move up, and/or 2) there’s a two-loss Big 12 champion, and/or 3) the Big Ten West wins the Big Ten championship.

It’s more likely than you might think.

NEXT: Top 6 College Football Playoff Chase Rankings

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff? After Week 11, here are the 11 teams still alive and what they need to do to get in.

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Week 11 Roundup
Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Week 12 Early Line Predictions | Heisman Race
College Football Playoff Chase, Who’s Alive?
Bowl Projections | Week 11 Scoreboard, Predictions
Big Game Reactions: Baylor, Mich, Ole Miss, more
Coach Hot Seat Top 10 | Bowl Bubble: Who’s In, Out

Throughout the last few weeks of doing this, the College Football Playoff chase has been about who realistically has the easiest and hardest paths to get in.

But enough of that.

No more being cheeky about it. No more throwing a cookie to an unbeaten UTSA team that has no chance of getting into the top four – but is very much alive for the New Years Six race.

There are 11 teams remaining in the College Football Playoff chase, and here’s ranking their chances and what has to happen to get in.

Before it was about the cold, hard reality of what each team had to do. We’re now ranking them based on if we think it could happen, or not.

No. 1 is going to get in, No. 11 isn’t, and everything in between falls into place, starting with …

11. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9-1)

It’s a wonderful story, but there are a whole lot of massive walls Wake Forest would have to scale to get in, and it starts by first just getting into a position to have the discussion.

Is Wake Forest good enough to get by Clemson on the road? Maybe. Is it good enough to get by a renewed and improved Boston College team that got better since starting QB Phil Jurkovec returned? Maybe.

Is it good enough to get by Clemson and Boston College on the road, and then take down – most likely – Pitt in the ACC Championship? It’s almost certainly going to slip in one of those three games, but even if it doesn’t, there’s still a whole lot of traffic in the pecking order.

What’s the one signature win? It would be the ACC Championship if that happens, but there really isn’t one. NC State? Ehhhhh, okay.

This is how the College Football Playoff committee works, by the way.

It would look at Wake Forest’s loss to North Carolina, point out that 11-1 Notre Dame beat North Carolina, and there’s the hard ceiling to get through.

However, go 12-1, win your Power Five conference title, and good things will probably happen.

10. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1)

This is the “we don’t really believe in you anymore” ranking.

Oklahoma still sort of controls its own destiny.

If it beats Iowa State, and wins at Oklahoma State, and beats Oklahoma State again or gets by Baylor in the Big 12 Championship, yeah. it’s probably in.

I speak College Football Playoff committee. Don’t believe anything else you’re hearing.

12-1 Big 12 champion Oklahoma gets in over a one-loss Wake Forest, a 13-0 Cincinnati – okay, let’s just call that a toss-up depending on how the Bearcats play the rest of the way out – and an 11-1 Notre Dame. Power Five conference championships matter to this group.

However, if it’s down to one spot, it doesn’t get in over a one-loss Pac-12 champion Oregon, or a one-loss Big Ten champ. However, if Oklahoma wins out and Alabama suffers a second loss along the way … in.

After not coming up with a truly strong win over the first nine games and then failing miserably in the first huge test against an okay-not-amazing Baylor team, yeah, we don’t really believe in you anymore, Oklahoma.

Win out, though, and that might not matter.

9. Michigan State Spartans (9-1)

Back in the old days of the BCS, 2008 was one of the biggest whoppers of a season because it was giant mess for two spots, not four. Part of the big whoop was with the old Big 12 South.

Oklahoma and Texas were monsters, and Texas Tech rose up and became a factor.

The Red Raiders shocked Texas in a thriller – it was the Longhorns’ only loss of the regular season – and Texas beat Oklahoma earlier on. Texas, OU, and Texas Tech finished in a three-way tie for the division, but Oklahoma got the call to the Big 12 Championship partly because it annihilated Texas Tech 65-21 late in the year.

Fast forward to 2021. Ohio State and Michigan aren’t exactly the same sort of powerhouses that 2008 Oklahoma and Texas were, but they’re close. Michigan State appears to be the Texas Tech in this scenario.

Now, for this comp to work, Michigan would have to beat Ohio State, and Michigan State – who beat Michigan in a close thriller – already has a loss to Purdue so there can’t be a three-way tie, but basically, this is a painfully long-winded way of saying Michigan State is likely the No. 3 team in a division with three great teams.

There’s a chance to blow past that against a shakier-than-it seems Ohio State this week, but then the Spartans would have to beat Penn State, and then it would likely have to beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship.

On the plus side, Michigan State controls its destiny. Beat the Buckeyes, beat the Nittany Lions, and beat – most likely – the Badgers, and in, no questions, no doubt, no drama. In.

It’s probably not going to happen, though.

NEXT: Top 8 College Football Playoff Chase Rankings

The second round of the College Football Playoff rankings were released, here are 25 instant reactions from the November 9th version

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College Football Playoff Rankings: Top 25 Instant Reactions

Rankings CFP | CFN | AP | Coaches

25. The College Football Playoff committee basically held serve

It’s not bad. There were a few questionable calls, but nothing all that insane. It was a tough week because everyone but Georgia stunk – at least up top – so there wasn’t much room for movement. The committee didn’t do anything crazy, but there will be a whole lot happening next week after a big weekend of games coming up.

24. San Diego State beat Utah, so …

The committee process is all about getting the pecking order right through the meticulous way of going through each factor – more on the big debate in a moment.

San Diego State lost to Fresno State, and for those who stay up until the wee hours of the morning, it hasn’t looked great in a slew of other games. But if Utah is in at 6-3, putting SDSU in – the Aztecs won 33-31 between the two – was a must.

23. The Penn State factor, Part 1

Penn State should’ve been in somewhere. YEAH, the loss to Illinois is a killer, but it beat Auburn (17), beat Wisconsin (18) in Madison, and lost to Iowa after losing QB Sean Clifford early on and lost in a good fight with Ohio State. Not a big deal – it’ll get in the top 25 if it beats Michigan – but there wasn’t much respect.

22. Watch out for Houston

It’s not ranked, but it’s about to play a huge role. The opening day loss to Texas Tech is a drag, but it wasn’t that bad – the Red Raiders are currently 5-4. There aren’t a slew of great wins, and the schedule isn’t going to get a whole lot stronger. However, that doesn’t matter.

What does is that it’s probably going to play Cincinnati for the American Athletic Conference championship. If the Cougars win out, it’s probably pushing the Bearcats out of the New Year’s Six, much less the College Football Playoff.

21. Louisiana is probably on the Top 25 bubble

Someone from the Sun Belt will end up being in the top 25, but it probably won’t be until the end. Louisiana destroyed Appalachian State, but it doesn’t have any great wins and isn’t looking all that impressive. The only loss is to Texas in the opener, and it gets at Troy, at Liberty, ULM to close. If it wins out, it’ll be deep in the mix for a New Year’s Six appearance.

NEXT: College Football Playoff Reactions