Top 4 College Football Playoff Chase Rankings
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1)
Here’s what’s lost in the equation after last week’s rankings.
Oklahoma State just beat then-CFP No. 10 Oklahoma. If it wins the Big 12 Championship, it’ll beat a top ten Baylor team to do it.
That means it’ll have closed out with two top ten wins, and technically – according to the CFP rankings – it would be the toughest final kick anyone would’ve faced.
The committee has said from the formation of this thing bay in 2014 that it looks first and foremost at Power Five conference champions, and it only left out one 12-1 team so far – 2018 Ohio State – because it was annihilated by Purdue in its one loss and Notre Dame was 12-0.
Unlike 2021 Cincinnati with its one good win over Notre Dame, the 2018 Irish had a slew of strong wins, including against a Michigan team that was 10-1 going into the Ohio State game.
The committee effectively had to put in that Irish team – along with unbeaten Alabama, unbeaten Clemson, and an Oklahoma team that lost one close game to Texas, but avenged the defeat in the Big 12 Championship.
Considering its easy schedule, Cincinnati doesn’t have to be in over a 12-1 Power Five champion – at least that’s the guess when it comes to how the committee will see this.
That’s a long-winded way of saying that in a year when there will be – at most – three 12-1 Power Five champions, the committee is almost certainly going to respect Oklahoma State if it wins on Saturday.
Most likely.
Now, if Georgia beats Alabama, all that other stuff doesn’t matter. It’s a done deal as long as the Cowboys beat Baylor for the Big 12 title.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
Alabama was second on this list last week and throughout most of the process because 1) it’s in with a 12-1 SEC Championship run and 2) there was some thought that it could get in at 11-2 with a close loss to Georgia.
If Bama had annihilated Auburn and went on to lose to Georgia in a classic, it would’ve been an interesting debate in a four-best-team sort of way that the Fighting Sabans should get in over 13-0 Cincinnati or maybe even a 12-1 Big 12 Champion.
Now, never put it past the College Football Playoff committee to invoke the Because It’s Alabama clause that’s not written down anywhere, but hovers over the room in Grapevine, Texas, but nah.
Alabama loses, it’s going to be out unless both Michigan and Baylor lose their respective Power Five championships. In that case, there’s a shot. Cincinnati – if it beats Houston – and Notre Dame would be mortal locks, and then Oregon would probably be the call if it beats Utah in the Pac-12 Championship, but …
Alabama is in if it beats Georgia. Anything else with a loss is an almost certain no.