College Football Playoff 2022: Game lines for top-6 teams in second rankings

Which top six teams are on upset alert after the second College Football Playoff ranking?

The first iteration of the College Football Playoff rankings this season have already crumbled.

Last week’s No. 3 team, Michigan State, went from knocking off rival Michigan at home to an 11-point loss at Purdue while every other top six team found a way to win. That should get a bit easier for some of the top teams in the CFP committee’s second rankings as a number of schools prepare for matchups that’d be more enticing in early September than mid November.

Once again, it’ll be a team outside the top six with the biggest opportunity to impact the rankings as No. 19 Purdue travels to Columbus for a showdown with Ohio State.

Let’s dig into this week’s lines as the stakes continue to get higher.

All odds via Tipico Sportsbook.

College Football Playoff Chase: Ranking The 13 Teams Still Alive After Week 10

Who’s still alive to get into the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff? After Week 10, here’s our ranking of the 13 teams still in the chase.

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff? After Week 10, here’s our ranking of the 13 teams still in the mix.


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CFN 1-130 Rankings | Week 10 scoreboard
Bowl Projections, College Football Playoff Predictions
Week 11 opening lines | AP | Coaches
College Football Playoff Top 25 Prediction
Big Game Reaction: Purdue, UNC, Bama, more

Unfortunately, after key losses last weekend, we’re afraid Baylor and Auburn won’t be joining us for the rest of the season.

Where we’re going, they cannot follow.

To realistically be in the College Football Playoff chase in November, you have to 1) still be unbeaten, 2) be an unbeaten Power Five team, or 3) have some ridiculously strange circumstances to overcome parts one and two.

There are still 13 teams still alive, and it’s really more like 11 still in the hunt. These teams all have a reasonable path to dream of getting into the final four, and we’re ranking them based on how much control they have over their respective destinies.

This isn’t a College Football Playoff ranking projection – that’s this. This is all based on likelihood of getting in and the clearest paths.

13. UTSA Roadrunners (9-0)

So you know when Cincinnati was struggling so much with Tulsa this weekend … and, to a certain extent, Tulane the weekend before … and Navy the weekend before that? Everyone was talking about what that meant for the College Football playoff chase.

UTSA cares about the New Year’s Six bowl hunt.

The top-ranked Group of Five conference champion according to the CFP at least gets a New Year’s Six bowl bid. This year, that’s likely going to be the Fiesta. Conference USA has yet to have a team represented in the high-profile bowl.

So no, your Roadrunners of UTSA don’t have the slightest realistic shot at getting into the College Football playoff even if they do go 13-0 with a Conference USA championship and a win at Illinois on the resumé.

However, if there are a bunch of two-loss Power Five conference champs and Cincinnati loses once, UTSA would at least be in an interesting discussion.

If UC loses, though, getting that New Year’s Six slot would be on the table.

12. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2)

With the 20-3 win over Auburn, things just changed in a huge way for Texas A&M.

Now, even with losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State, there’s a case to be made that this could and should be the first ever two-loss team to get to the College Football Playoff.

But it needs a one-loss Alabama – who it beat 41-38 in early October – to lose again before the SEC Championship.

The Tide still have to deal with Arkansas at home and Auburn on the road. If they’re still as shaky as they were against LSU on Saturday, dropping one of those team isn’t out of the question.

If Bama loses, and A&M closes out with wins over Ole Miss, Prairie View A&M, and at LSU, it’s off to the SEC Championship to face Georgia. If it wins that, even with two losses, no way and no how does the committee leave out a red-hot SEC champion with wins over Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Ole Miss, and LSU.

But that doesn’t happen unless the Tide help the cause.

11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1)

Call this ranking a possible rental.

Yes, Notre Dame lost to Cincinnati. However, the Bearcat schedule is full of layups and the team is having a hard time getting the ball to go down. Don’t be the slightest bit shocked if Notre Dame moves ahead of Cincinnati at some point in the CFP ranking process.

While the Bearcats close out with more mediocre Group of Five teams, Notre Dame finishes with at Virginia, Georgia Tech, and at Stanford to end its season with nine games against Power Five programs and possible wins against all of them.

However, it’s still going to take at least two multi-loss Power Five champions – like in the ACC and Pac-12, most likely – and Alabama can’t beat Georgia in the SEC Championship, and there would have to be a major controversial call.

Or, Cincinnati might just lose at some point and the door would be open for the Irish.

HOWEVER … not getting to play in a conference championship matters. It didn’t in the past for 12-0 Notre Dame. It sure as shoot would for the 11-1 version.

NEXT: Top 10 College Football Playoff Chase Rankings

College Football Playoff Rankings: 5 Random Day After Thoughts

The day after the first batch of College Football Playoff rankings were released, here are five random thoughts about what the CFP committee came up with and told the rest of college footballd.

The day after the first batch of College Football Playoff rankings were released, here are five random thoughts about what the CFP committee came up with.


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College Football Playoff Rankings: 5 Random Day After Thoughts

CFP Rankings: Reaction to every slot
College Football Playoff Rankings

5. Oklahoma is more than okay, even at 9

13-0 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma is absolutely in the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff.

There’s ZERO chance it’s out if it wins out. None. No way, no how, and in no reasonable or rational scenario would the College Football Playoff committee leave out an unbeaten Power Five conference champion – that includes Wake Forest, by the way, but that’s not happening.

Don’t get into any sort of a twist at OU being at 9 to start. It still has to play Baylor (12), Oklahoma State (11), and it probably has to deal with one of those two a second time in the Big 12 Championship – if all goes well.

By the way, it’s not a total lock like 13-0 would be, but 12-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma would almost certainly get in, too.

College Football Playoff Rankings Day After Thoughts
The sneaky-interesting ranking was …
Arkansas really is the the one big whiff
Cincinnati at 6 is fine … really
Oregon isn’t necessarily safe at 4

NEXT: The sneaky-interesting ranking was …

College Football Playoff Chase: Ranking The 15 Teams Still Alive After Week 9

Who has the easiest and hardest paths among the teams still realistically in the College Football Playoff chase? Here’s our ranking of the 15 teams still alive and their ease of possibly getting in.

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff? After Week 9, here’s our ranking of the 15 teams still in the mix.


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Week 9 Roundup What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 9 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 10 opening lines | AP | Coaches
College Football Playoff Top 25 Prediction
Big Game Reaction: MSU, Georgia, OSU, more

Six teams tapped out of the chase among those with a realistic shot of getting into the College Football Playoff.

There’s always something crazy that could happen, but you’re almost certainly not getting in if you’re a Power Five program with multiple losses, or a Group of Five team with one loss. It might not seem fair, and this needs to change with an expanded playoff, but that’s the deal.

Pitt, Iowa, Kentucky, Ole Miss, San Diego State, and SMU – thanks. The New Year’s Six bowls are still on the table by winning out and catching a break, but the College Football Playoff? Nah.

So now we’re down to 15 teams out of 130 who are are still alive for this thing. We rank their chances of getting in from the ones who need the most help, to the ones who still control their own respective destinies.

This isn’t a College Football Playoff ranking projection – that’s this. This is all based on likelihood of getting in and the clearest paths. Starting with the dreamiest of the dreamy …

15. UTSA Roadrunners (8-0)

It’s not happening, but with San Diego State losing to Fresno State and SMU dropping a thriller to Houston, there’s Cincinnati, there’s UTSA, and that’s it for the unbeatens among the Group of Five programs.

UTSA would need to win out against at UTEP, Southern Miss, UAB, and at North Texas – and then win the Conference USA Championship – doing it with the types of blowouts that Cincinnati isn’t getting against its weak slate. It would also need the entire Power Five conference world to melt down.

Again, it’s not happening, but getting a New Year’s Six bowl could be on the table no matter what Cincinnati does.

14. Texas A&M Aggies (6-2)

No, a two-loss team has never made it into the College Football Playoff. However, A&M has the win over Alabama – that’s the key to the dream of getting in.

Win out against Auburn, at Ole Miss, Prairie View A&M, and at LSU, and hope for one stunning defeat by Alabama somewhere – maybe against LSU on the wrong day, or Arkansas, or at Auburn – and it’s off to the SEC Championship. Win that, and no way, no how, no chance is the team that Alabama, and Georgia will be left out.

But, again, it only works with an Alabama loss somewhere.

13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)

This one is totally not fair, but Notre Dame has a rock-hard Cincinnati ceiling it might not be able to bust through.

Remember, these rankings are based on who has the clearest paths and who controls their own destiny.

The Irish will be a top ten team in the College Football Playoff rankings and will move up to around the top five, but even if Cincinnati loses once, that 24-13 home loss is a killer.

Notre Dame would need to win out – Navy, at Virginia, Georgia Tech, at Stanford – and hope for a whole bunch of multi-loss Power Five champions.

Again, this about being in control, and Notre Dame isn’t as long as Cincinnati keeps winning. However, it’s the same deal for …

12. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0)

Cincinnati is going to be in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings at some point, if not be up there in the first batch that comes out on Tuesday, November 2nd.

Here’s the problem.

Once the entire regular season is over – including the conference championship – the College Football Playoff committee has the unwritten rule of starting with this one big question.

“Did you win your Power Five conference championship?”

That’s followed up by, “did you win going unbeaten or finish 12-1?”

DO NOT ASSUME that Cincinnati being in the top four means it’s going to stay there. It needs Wake Forest to lose – probably twice – and it will. It needs Oregon to lose – it probably will – and it can’t have Alabama winning the SEC Championship and be 12-1 along with Georgia finishing 12-1.

It can’t have an unbeaten or one-loss Big Ten champion or an unbeaten or one-loss Big 12 champion to go along with two other viable options. A whole lot of things have to go right for a 13-0 Cincinnati to get in.

For what it’s worth, we think it’ll happen, but Cincinnati doesn’t control its path, and for now, neither does …

11. Michigan Wolverines (7-1)

There’s a funky scenario that hasn’t been discussed and almost certainly won’t happen, but it’s worth a theoretical hypothetical – if that can be such a thing.

Michigan State wins out and goes 13-0, and Michigan wins out by beating Indiana, at Penn State, at Maryland, Ohio State. Because that 37-33 loss on the road to the Spartans was such a close fight – unlike, say, Texas A&M’s only loss at Alabama last year a 52-24 blowout – would both brothers get in?

That’s almost certainly not going to happen on any level. Here’s the more likely scenario, if you can buy into the idea that Michigan can beat Ohio State.

Either 1) Michigan State loses twice – with the remaining Spartans’ schedule, that’s possible; more on that in a moment – or 2) Ohio State beats Michigan State and Michigan wins out, which would then likely help the Wolverines because the win over Wisconsin would potentially be the difference in the Big Ten East tie-breaker world …

Again, more on that in a bit.

NEXT: Top 10 College Football Playoff Chase Rankings

College Football Playoff Chase: Ranking The 21 Teams Still Alive After Week 8

Who has the easiest and hardest paths among the teams still realistically in the College Football Playoff chase? Here’s our ranking of the 21 teams still alive and their ease of possibly getting in.

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff? After Week 8, here’s our ranking of the 21 teams still in the mix.


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Week 8 Roundup What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 8 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 8 opening lines | AP | Coaches
Big Game Reaction: Illinois, Oregon, Pitt, more

We lost three teams from the College Football Playoff chase – Penn State, NC State, and Coastal Carolina – and now, out of the 130 teams playing FBS football, we’re down to 21.

The first College Football Playoff rankings come out next week, but remember, they’re just a snapshot of the moment.

The theories and beliefs still hold – win your Power Five conference championship, do it with one loss or go unbeaten, and you’re almost certainly in.

So who’s realistically still left? We rank all 21 teams that have a path to get into the playoff going from those with no shot to those who control their own destiny.

This isn’t a College Football Playoff ranking projection – that’s coming. This is all based on likelihood of getting in and the clearest paths to getting in.

21. UTSA Roadrunners (8-0)

There’s a win over Illinois on the resumé, and it’s possible to roll through the rest of an easy schedule to get into the discussion, but it would take a meltdown of the entire college football world for UTSA to get into the final four. However, making into a New Year’s Six game isn’t out of the question if Cincinnati and San Diego State both lose.

20. San Diego State Aztecs (7-0)

There just aren’t any style points. The Aztecs win with the nation’s best run defense, a tough offense that doesn’t make mistakes, and repeat steps 1 and 2.

Wins over Utah and Arizona aren’t enough, but the schedule overall is better than Cincinnati’s. It won’t matter for the College Football Playoff chase, but the Aztecs are right there for a possible New Year’s Six bowl by winning out.

19. SMU Mustangs (7-0)

It’s the team we’re not talking about  … yet.

SMU’s big win is at TCU, but it’s rolling through its schedule – a slate that makes Cincinnati’s look like an SEC West team – but there’s a trip to Cincinnati in late November. Throw in dates with Houston and Memphis on the road and UCF and Tulsa at home, and this could be the it team by the time the showdown with the Bearcats rolls around.

18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1)

Notre Dame is sort of stuck because it needs Cincinnati to lose twice. Or, it needs Cincinnati to rip through the rest of its schedule, and it needs the Power Five conference championships to be in meltdown mode. With that said, a few style points wouldn’t hurt, especially considering there won’t be one great win on the resumé by going 11-1.

17. Texas A&M Aggies (6-2)

Here’s how this has to work. Win out, hope for one more loss by Alabama along the way, beat unbeaten No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship. Do that, in a four-best-team way, a two-loss team will be in the College Football Playoff for the first time.

16. Ole Miss Rebels (6-1)

The loss to Alabama is a problem – Ole Miss can’t get to the SEC Championship if the Tide don’t lose again – but if it wins out against a decent slate that includes Texas A&M and road dates at Auburn and Mississippi State, and if Alabama wins the SEC Championship over Georgia, in a theoretical way, Ole Miss might have to be considered one of the four best teams.

NEXT: Top 15 College Football Playoff Chase Rankings

College Football Playoff Chase: Ranking The 24 Teams Still Alive After Week 7

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff? After Week 7, ranking the 24 teams still in the chase.

Who’s still alive in the chase to get into the 2021-2022 College Football Playoff? After Week 7, here’s our ranking of the 24 teams still in the chase.


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Now that we’re halfway through the season – and with the first round of College Football Playoff rankings coming in the first week of November – who’s still alive?

Out of the 130 teams that play FCS college football, 24 of them still have a reasonable dream of getting into the final top four.

Some control their own path to the playoff, and others needs some help, and others need the meltdown of college football to even watch the playoff.

The ground rules that aren’t set in stone, but they’re reasonably established eight years in. To get into the College Football Playoff, for the most part, you need to …

1. Win your Power Five conference championship. Go unbeaten, and you’re a 100% lock. Do it with one loss, and you’re in unless there’s another obvious team that makes the cut, like 2018’s 12-1 Big Ten Champion Ohio State team that got left out for an unbeaten independent Notre Dame. OR …

2. Be a one-loss Power Five team that doesn’t win the conference championship, and hope at least two of the Power Five champs have two or more losses. Notre Dame got in last year as an ACC member despite losing the conference title to Clemson, and 2017 Alabama ended up winning the national title despite not even winning its own division. OR …

3. Go unbeaten as a Group of Five team – from the American Athletic, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, or Sun Belt – and hope for a whole ton of breaks. If you lose just one game as a Group of Five program, forget it. Go unbeaten as a Group of Five program and – let’s be honest – forget it, but this year might be different.

Among the 24 teams that appear to be still alive for the College Football Playoff, we break this down into five categories.

1. Teams in total control. Win out, get in no matter what – at least with the way things are shaking out this year.

2. Teams that control their own paths … sort of. There’s a loss, or it’s going to take some work, but go unbeaten the rest of the way and all should work out just fine.

3. Teams that need help. It’s possible, but even if they win out they’d need a slew of things to fall the right way to get in.

4. Two loss teams that still have a path. It would take something major – and historic – since the College Football Playoff has never taken a two loss team, but it’s possible by winning out.

5. Unbeaten, but no chance. These teams would need the entire college football world to collapse to be considered.

The rankings are based on relative control and likelihood of getting into the College Football Playoff.

Ranking the teams alive for the College Football Playoff 
UTSA | San Diego StateCoastal Carolina
SMUTexas A&M | Auburn | Ole Miss
Notre DameKentucky | Cincinnati
Baylor | Pitt | NC StateWake Forest
Ohio State | OregonPenn State | Iowa
Michigan State | Oklahoma St | Michigan
Alabama | Oklahoma | Georgia
Bowl Projections | CFN Rankings

Unbeaten teams that have no shot at getting into the College Football Playoff

They’re unbeaten, and they’re in the hunt for one of the New Year’s Six games, but it would take several multi-loss Power Five champions and a whole lot of luck, thoughts, and prayers to get in.

24. UTSA Roadrunners (7-0)

UTSA is in the College Football Playoff if … asteroids hit Athens, Norman, Tuscaloosa, Cincinnati, and Columbus all at the same time, and even then it’s not happening.

However, if America really is desperate to push the narrative that its time for a Group of Five program to get into the CFP, UTSA has a win at Illinois, it beat Memphis, and going 13-0 would at least be a talking point if we get the most chaotic second half of a college football season ever.

It’s all going to go wrong against … UAB is the most dangerous team left on the slate, but all of a sudden, going to UTEP isn’t a layup. However, the Roadrunners are playing like the best team in Conference USA.

Will UTSA get into the College Football Playoff? Of course not, but it could be the first Conference USA team to make a New Year’s Six bowl in the College Football Playoff era by winning the remaining games and getting a loss by Cincinnati, San Diego State, and Coastal Carolina.

Ranking the teams alive for the College Football Playoff
UTSA | San Diego StateCoastal Carolina
SMUTexas A&M | Auburn | Ole Miss
Notre DameKentucky | Cincinnati
Baylor | Pitt | NC StateWake Forest
Ohio State | OregonPenn State | Iowa
Michigan State | Oklahoma St | Michigan
Alabama | Oklahoma | Georgia
Bowl Projections | CFN Rankings

NEXT: 23. San Diego State Aztecs