Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing Week 11 with Bears Wire

Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing the Lions Week 11 matchup against Chicago with Bears Wire

The Detroit Lions kick off the home portion of their NFC North schedule in Week 11, welcoming the Chicago Bears to Ford Field on Sunday. It’s the first of two divisional home game in four days for Detroit.

The Bears have been an enigmatic team in 2023. On their way to a 3-7 record, they’ve dealt with injuries and a recent trade that bolstered their defense.

To help dive deeper into this week’s opponent, I called upon Bears Wire editor Alyssa Barbieri for some questions and answers about Chicago.

David Montgomery makes the Lions-Bears matchup special

David Montgomery makes the Lions-Bears matchup special in his 1st game against his old team

Players leaving a team through free agency is never a fun or easy task for the team or the player. In the case of most they are drafted to a team out of college, and become men in and around that team, before starting families of their own all while playing a game for a living.

In the case of David Montgomery, this game may be in Detroit but he will be facing a familiar uniform on defense for the first time in a while.

After spending a college career turning into one of the better college running back prospects in recent memory. His career at Iowa State was good enough to earn him being drafted in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. From there he and Tarik Cohen became a more than viable running back duo at a time when the Chicago Bears weren’t bottom dwellers of the division.

Fast forward to 2023 and Montgomery finds himself in another running back duo again but is the elder statesman this time.

What the Lions have built with Montgomery and first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs could be something special. It took some time, and Montgomery missed of it, but the Lions staff has seen what they can achieve. Montgomery is using his bully running style to attack defenses up the middle once again while Gibbs uses his quick feet to work outside the numbers.

That bullying style is going to be on full display as Montgomery faces his former team on Sunday. The ability to play behind an offensive line that allows him to run with his style is not something he has overlooked since arriving either.

“It’s more of a blessing than anything, just being able to have such a profound group in front of me, I think even when I was in high school and sometimes in college, I never knew what that really felt like, but to have it here and feel it, super, super dope. I think also it gives like me an opportunity to showcase what I can actually do…”

Behind that offensive line, Montgomery has gained 501 rushing yards in five games and is averaging a career-high in yards per game so far. Against the Bears, Montgomery isn’t concerned about his stats, he wants to keep things simple.

“I’m just going to be me, man,” he responded when asked what he hopes to do against his former team. “I’m not going to try to play out of the lines of myself, I’m just going to be me. I think me being who I am is enough. So, I’ll just go out, play the way that I play, play the way that I know how and hope that we execute properly and walk out of there with a dub.”

Jahmyr Gibbs has a fantastic matchup advantage against the Bears defense

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs has a fantastic matchup advantage against the Bears defense

Jahmyr Gibbs is set to face the Chicago Bears for the first time in his NFL career. It could be a special Sunday for the Lions rookie running back.

Chicago’s run defense is very good. No team allows fewer yards per carry than the Bears and their 3.2 YPC figure. Over their last six games, the Bears allow under 50 yards per game on the ground.

However, teams that can throw the ball to their running backs have eaten the Bears alive. Chicago’s defense ranks at or very near the bottom in all of the following metrics:

  • Receptions by RB (60) – 30th
  • Receiving yards by RB (615) – 32nd
  • Yards per reception (10.3) – 32nd
  • Receiving TDs by RB (5) – 32nd
  • Missed tackles on RBs as receivers (28) – 32nd

Safeties Elijah Hicks and Jaquan Brisker each struggle in coverage against both TEs and RBs, but it’s most pronounced with LB Tremaine Edmunds. He’s bad at covering RBs, allowing a completion percentage over 90 percent— but even worse at tackling them after the catch. Both Edmunds (15%) and Hicks (30%) have very high missed tackle rates in the passing game.

Now factor in the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs as one of the NFL’s most prolific receivers out of the backfield already. In seven games, Gibbs has caught 31 passes for 200 yards. Alvin Kamara of the Saints is the only RB who averages more catches per game than Gibbs.

Gibbs’ ability to quickly transition from receiver to runner should allow the rookie to capitalize on the receiving opportunities against Chicago. Gibbs has racked up 142 yards after the catch in the last three games on 17 receptions.

The Lions haven’t used Gibbs much outside of a safety outlet or a quick-hit target on designed short-yardage throws. He has seen scant action as a slot receiver, with just 17 snaps in his seven games. Those 142 yards after the catch are actually 12 more than the total receiving yards he’s gained.

Yet over the summer in training camp and joint practices, as well as in college at Alabama, Gibbs proved to be a very polished, dynamic route runner from the slot. He has enough receiving acumen to play outside WR, too. That’s something Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can lean on in Week 11 against the Bears and their revamped pass rush of late.

Chicago might be able to slow down Gibbs on the ground. But he’s an absolute mismatch for the Lions as a receiving threat. Just for good measure, fellow Lions RB David Montgomery and Craig Reynold are both excellent (albeit low-volume) receivers, too.

All statistical data courtesy of SIS Sports

 

A graphic look at the contrast between Jared Goff and Justin Fields

Jared Goff and Justin Fields have a major contrast in passing style and effectiveness

Nobody would ever confuse Lions QB Jared Goff and Bears QB Justin Fields. They play the position about as divergently as two quarterbacks can. Those contrasting styles will be on display in Week 11 when Goff and the Lions host Fields and the Bears, presuming Fields returns to the Chicago lineup.

There is now a graphic representation of just how different Goff and Fields like to operate as passers. The percentage thrown to the middle of the field goes up to the right. The success rate scales with the higher values at the top.

You’ll find Goff on an island in the far upper right corner. No quarterback uses the middle of the field more than Goff and the Lions offense, edging past Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa for the highest rate of middle-of-field throws. Goff’s EPA, or expected points added, is near the top, too.

Fields is in the opposite corner. Only two QBs throw over the middle at a lower rate than Fields. Chicago’s success rate when Fields throws to the middle of the field is below average; the egregiousness of Daniel Jones skews the chart view.

This is more about style of play and offensive scheme than being inherently good or bad. However, Goff is really great at using the middle of the field and does it frequently, while Fields trends a lot closer to the bottom in both usage and effectiveness.

The data was compiled and put into handy table form by Judah Fortgang of PFF.

Justin Fields now expected to start at QB for Bears vs. Lions

Fields has been out with a thumb injury since Week 6, with Tyson Bagent taking his place

Prepping for the Chicago Bears and their visit to Ford Field in Week 11 has been a little tricky for the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell’s team has been forced to prepare for two different potential starting quarterbacks for Chicago.

Justin Fields, the Bears starter for the last two-plus seasons, has been out with a hand injury. Fields dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand and has not played since Week 6.

Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent has filled in for Fields and offers a different style in the Bear offense. He’s more of a checkdown passer and a lot less of a running threat than Fields.

It now appears that Fields will be the starter. The NFL Network reported that Fields will get the nod as long as he progresses through the rest of the week without complications to the thumb injury.

Detroit has had a lot of success against Fields, holding him to a completion percentage of just 51.7, with three TDs and also three INTs in three starts. Fields has run for 288 yards in those trio of starts, but the Lions have won two of those three meetings.

Predicting the Bears’ prime-time matchups in 2023

Which Bears games will be featured in prime time this season? We make our predictions ahead of the 2023 schedule release.

The annual NFL schedule extravaganza is finally upon us and soon, fans of every team will learn when and where they will play their opponents during the 2023 season. The NFL is set to announce the complete schedule for the 2023 season this Thursday at 7 p.m. CT. That announcement also includes the prime-time schedule, where specific matchups will be picked to be featured nationally on Thursday nights, Sunday nights, Monday nights, some Saturday nights, and special holidays.

For the Chicago Bears, national interest may appear to be lower than in previous years. They were the worst team in 2022, coming off a 3-14 record, and weren’t particularly competitive to close out the year. But with a young nucleus led by quarterback Justin Fields and a team that looks revamped following a busy spring, the Bears could be in more for more prime-time slots than we think. Chicago has had three or more games featured in prime time every season dating back to 2016 and there’s no reason to think that changes this year.

Here are our predictions for the Bears’ 2023 prime-time matchups.

Watch: Detroit Lions Podcast recaps Bears win and preps for the Packers

This week’s episode wraps up the dominant win over the Bears, previews the Packers matchup and much more

It’s not every year that the Detroit Lions are playing for a potential playoff berth in the final week of the season. Frankly, it’s been way too long.

The Detroit Lions Podcast featuring Lions Wire’s Jeff Risdon celebrates the rapid ascension and the team playing do-or-die football in January. This week’s episode recaps the dominant win over the Bears in Week 17 and how it silenced the “SOL” crowd.

Do the Lions have a chance in Green Bay? The numbers, and Jared Goff’s history, say Detroit can win this weekend. There’s a breakdown of how Dan Campbell’s Lions can pull off the win in Wisconsin. Coach Campbell’s rousing speech from Hard Knocks takes center stage as well.

There’s also some draft need conversation, thoughts on Ben Johnson’s coaching fate this offseason and a whole lot more.

The audio-only version of the show is available here or via your favorite podcast provider.

Lions players had some interesting Next Gen Stats highlights vs. the Bears

On Jared Goff’s completion percentage, some impressive running by Williams and Swift, and Aidan Hutchinson’s incredible closing burst

Sunday’s glorious 41-10 triumph over the Chicago Bears was one of the best Detroit Lions performances in a very long time. The dominance on the scoreboard had quite a bit of statistical and analytical basis, too.

Already the highest-graded game of the year by Pro Football Focus, the Lions also thrived in some key metrics in NFL Next Gen Stats. The weekly newsletter from Zebra Technologies, the good people behind Next Gen Stats, revealed more layers to the Lions’ big afternoon in Week 17.

Lions film spotlight: Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu vs. the Bears

Lions film spotlight: Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu vs. the Bears

This week’s Detroit Lions film breakdown spotlights two defensive backs and how they performed in the Week 17 win over the Chicago Bears.

Cornerback Jeff Okudah and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu each earned the spotlight treatment, in part because both played more limited snaps. Chicago ran just 52 plays in Detroit’s 41-10 win. Okudah played 17 and Melifonwu was in for 26 (not counting plays erased by penalties).

As with past breakdowns, the methodology is pretty straightforward. I watch each play from both the broadcast angle and the All-22. When the player does his job well on a play, he earns a plus. When he fails at his task, it earns a minus. Not every play earns a mark.

Film spotlight: Breaking down all the Lions runs vs. the Panthers

Lions film spotlight: Breaking down RB D'Andre Swift vs. the Jets

Jeff Okudah: Breaking down the Lions CB's Week 1 performance vs. the Eagles

Okudah

The first drive was an eventful one for the third-year cornerback. Okudah earned plusses in coverage on Chicago’s first two passing plays, staying in lock-step man coverage. On the second rep, he worked the slot on a crossing route and denied where Bears QB Justin Fields was looking to throw.

And then came Fields running. A gadget play where the Bears pitched the ball to Fields ran right at Okudah and he got destroyed by a block. Okudah was the edge contain but he earned a minus for getting buried (sidenote: rookie LB Malcolm Rodriguez also had a very bad rep here). No. 1 did have great coverage on the eventual TD play, a miscue on a pick route that didn’t involve Okudah.

First drive: three plusses (all in coverage), one minus in run defense

He earned one more plus in coverage and one more minus in run defense in the first half. The minus came on a run to the left where he was the outside contain but got blocked away, leaving RB David Montgomery with an option to go either way.

Okudah added one more plus in coverage, erasing his mark in man coverage. He was not thrown at all game.

Final tally: Five plusses in coverage, two minuses in run defense. I did not grade his special teams reps.

Melifonwu

The second-year safety didn’t start but was in on two plays on the opening drive. Neither earned a mark, but he picked up a minus on his first rep on the second drive on the long Fields run. Melifonwu never took his eyes off his receiver even as the wideout initiated a block with him as Fields took off.

Melifonwu finished that drive very well. He earned two plusses in run defense in the red zone, notably on the third-and-goal scramble by Fields. Great positioning and field awareness from No. 26; he didn’t make the tackle but he made the tackle possible by being when and where he was supposed to be.

He picked up a plus for helping force a sack on the next drive, a play where Fields ran out of bounds behind the line. Excellent spatial awareness and eye discipline on that one. Melifonwu tacked on another plus later in run defense, besting Equanimeous St. Brown on a block to help force a tackle.

In coverage, I found three plusses and one minuses for Melifonwu in the game. He was on the hook for one completion, a zone look where he ventured too far outside to allow the completion inside. He quickly made the tackle. It’s an iffy (no pun intended) play because the throw is into a schemed hole in the zone, and he avoided a minus by making the nice tackle. He added another plus by smartly coming off his man and making a tackle right after a catch.

Melifonwu’s minus came when he was far too deep in off-man coverage on the play where Josh Paschal recorded his second sack of the game. No harm there but it’s a minus for 26.

Final tally: Seven plusses, two minuses. Excellent bounce-back game after a brutal first start in Carolina.

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5 Takeaways from the Bears’ lackluster loss to the Lions

From Matt Eberflus’ unpreparedness to Chase Claypool’s outburst, here are our takeaways from Sunday’s Bears loss to the Lions.

New year, new Chicago Bears? Not exactly after their Week 17 game against the Detroit Lions. The Bears lost their ninth game in a row when they fell 41-10 against the Lions, allowing Detroit to keep their playoff hopes alive. For Chicago, it was arguably their worst game of the season as they sleepwalk to the final week of the season.

After a historic first quarter from Justin Fields and his running ability that netted 10 points, the Bears went scoreless for the next 45 minutes while the Lions punched them in the mouth on their way to scoring 40+ points. The loss tops last week’s game against the Bills as the most lopsided defeat for the Bears this season.

It was a forgettable game that left a bad taste in the mouth’s of Bears fans everywhere on the start of the new year. Here are our takeaways from the loss.