Browns project to have the best pass protection in the NFL

The Cleveland Browns project to have the best pass protection from the offensive line in the NFL

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One of the reasons to be bullish on the Cleveland Browns offense in 2021 is the strength of the guys up front. The Browns have heavily invested in the offensive line, and it’s paid off handsomely. One projection metric expects that to continue.

ESPN, in conjunction with Next Gen Stats, projected the pass protection win rate for all 32 NFL offensive lines. Line coach Bill Callahan’s unit in Cleveland topped the projections for 2021. The Browns are expected to win at a 65% rate, best in the league.

From ESPN analytics expect Seth Walder,

“From Myles Garrett to Odell Beckham Jr. to Denzel Ward to Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s roster is loaded. And that absolutely extends to the offensive line, which should give Baker Mayfield every opportunity to execute an efficient passing game. The talent is there, and so is the continuity: This group started a collective 73 games out of a possible 80 for Cleveland last season.”

The process ESPN used to create the projections is a little disingenuous. It automatically discredits players with less than two years of experience and also linemen who didn’t play a lot in 2020 due to injury or opting out for COVID purposes.

To achieve this we used a regression model that considers every projected starter’s individual pass block win rate over the past two seasons. Players who did not play in either or both seasons (including rookies) were assigned a below-average PBWR for their position, and anyone who failed to meet the qualifying threshold had their win rate regressed toward that below-average target.

However, those play into the hands of the Browns, who have four starters with long track records of strong play in the starting lineup. This projection metric helps bump up Jedrick Wills, who proved to be a pass-blocking specialist in his rookie season at left tackle, too.

Browns OL didn’t allow a pressure vs. the Steelers despite high blitz rate

It’s truly remarkable how well the shuffled offensive line performed in Pittsburgh. 

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One of the perceived advantages the Pittsburgh Steelers held over the Cleveland Browns entering the wild-card round meeting on Sunday was a rested and relatively healthy Steelers defensive front going up against a Browns offensive line minus Pro Bowl left guard Joel Bitonio. It got even dicier-looking for the Browns when All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin and Bitonio’s replacement, Michael Dunn, each left the game and did not return with injuries of their own.

It didn’t matter. The Browns offensive line still dominated Pittsburgh. Aside from the impressive ground attack (127 yards on 31 carries), the pass protection pitched a complete shutout. All-Pro T.J. Watt, Pro Bowler Cam Heyward and the rest of the Steelers pass rush never got close enough to Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield to register a single pressure on No. 6 in white and orange.

From Zebra Technologies, which is behind the NFL Next Gen stats, in its wild-card round press release,

Baker Mayfield was cool under pressure on Sunday night as he went 13/18 for 192 yards and 3 TD vs. the blitz. Despite the Steelers’ 53% blitz rate, Pittsburgh didn’t force any pressures on Mayfield’s 34 dropbacks, marking the 2nd most dropbacks without a pressure in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).

A sped-up Browns offense helped out, too. Also from Zebra Technologies, Mayfield got the ball out of his hands quicker on Sunday night in an average of 2.34 seconds. That’s a quarter of a second faster than any other game he played this year.

Mayfield’s passing chart for the night from Next Gen stats:

That doesn’t happen without phenomenal pass protection from the Browns line. Remember, OL coach Bill Callahan and his assistant, Scott Peters, were both not on the sidelines due to COVID-19 issues. With no head coach Kevin Stefanski either, it’s truly remarkable how well the shuffled offensive line performed in Pittsburgh.

Browns offensive line ranked 1st in both run and pass blocking for 2020

It’s a testament to talent, scheme and OL coach Bill Callahan

Take a bow, Bill Callahan. The Browns offensive line coach helmed the league’s best unit in 2020.

Callahan’s talent-laden line finished first overall in both run blocking and pass protection grades for the entire season at Pro Football Focus, which evaluates every player on every snap.

The Browns earned the highest score in run blocking at 81.4, edging out the 49ers (81.0) and Colts (78.8). In pass protection, Cleveland blew away the competition. The Browns’ 86.4 grade was well above the Packers (79.9) and Football Team (76.6).

One interesting gleaning from the rankings: the top five teams in pass protection grades from PFF all made the postseason. The Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears were the only teams in the bottom 12 in pass blocking to make the postseason.

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Report card: Grading each Browns position group after third quarter of season

Updated report card on where each position group is at through the first 12 games

The Cleveland Browns have a 9-3 record after the first three quarters of the season. Kevin Stefanski has guided his Browns to the top seeding in the AFC Wild Card race and the team is steaming towards its first postseason berth in almost two decades.

Now it’s time to close on the goals. Put up the four fingers and focus on finishing the season strong. But before the Browns finish, here’s an updated report card on where each position group is at through the first 12 games.

Grading the Browns position by position at the bye week

Browns offensive line gave Baker Mayfield more time to throw than any other QB got in Week 11

Baker also attacked past the 1st down marker better than any other QB

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Baker Mayfield didn’t exactly light up the stat sheet in Sunday’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles. But Mayfield attacked the Eagles pass defense effectively, and he got some help from his offensive line and pass protection to make it happen.

Mayfield completed just 12 of his 22 pass attempts in the steady rain on Sunday. Those completions netted 204 yards and included downfield strikes to KhaDarel Hodge and Rashard Higgins that set up the Browns offense nicely.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Browns gave Baker Mayfield the longest average time to throw of any quarterback in Week 11. Mayfield had 3.56 seconds on average to throw. Some of that comes from play-action fakes and a couple of designed rollouts and downfield throws as well. He was sacked three times by the Eagles.

Mayfield also had the best “air yards to the sticks” of Week 11. That means the Browns threw the ball beyond the first down marker on pass attempts better than anyone. Having the time to let those longer routes develop depends a lot on the pass protection, and the Browns passed the test there.

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Browns offensive line sits very high in PFF’s early-season ranking

The investment in the OL is paying off nicely for GM Andrew Berry

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New Browns GM Andrew Berry poured significant resources into upgrading the team’s offensive line. So far, the investment has paid off well for Cleveland’s offense.

Through the first three weeks of the 2020 season, only two teams have offensive lines playing better than Cleveland’s revamped unit. That’s according to Pro Football Focus, which ranked all 32 offensive line groups through Week 3’s games.

Cleveland sits third in the rankings, behind only Green Bay and New England. The Browns collectively have allowed just 15 QB pressures on Baker Mayfield, one of the lowest figures in the NFL.

One of Cleveland’s big offseason tasks was to revamp its offensive line and ensure that it could no longer be a reason for Baker Mayfield’s regression in play. The Browns attacked the problem in both free agency (Jack Conklin) and the draft (Jedrick Wills Jr.), and so far, both players have provided clear upgrades at the two weakest points on the line from a year ago.

That doesn’t even mention right guard Wyatt Teller, who is the top-graded guard in PFF’s metrics through Week 3.

It’s a testament to the new players, as well as veteran offensive line coach Bill Callahan for quickly assembling an upgraded line in this unusual offseason.

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Jedrick Wills: What they’re saying about the impressive Browns rookie LT

Wills has played quite well for never playing left tackle before

Jedrick Wills is off to a nice start under some extremely trying circumstances. Cleveland’s first-round pick had to learn to play a new position, moving from right to left tackle. He had to do it without the benefit of offseason work with teammates or the preseason. Wills has been a key part of an offensive line that has done a great job of protecting Baker Mayfield and clearing run lanes for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

He’s quickly proving himself to his teammates. Defensive end Porter Gustin was asked about Wills, who he frequently squares off against in practices.

“He has done great, and I think he has come a long way from the beginning of camp until the end,” Gustin said in a Zoom conference with reporters on Monday. “He is out there going against a lot of good pass rushers, and sometimes it does not go his way, but that is how it always is, especially for a rookie coming out here. It is tough. I think he has gotten better from it, learned from it and been able to step it up and come out and do really well on gameday, so it is great.

Dane Brugler of The Athletic, one of Wills’ champions in the draft process, has been validated through the first two weeks,

From Jordan Reid of The Draft Network, who was skeptical of the position change from right tackle to left,

Our friends at the OBR Film Room also like what they’re seeing from Wills, especially in the run game,

The Pro Football Focus grading also smiles upon Wills and his stellar performance against the Bengals in Week 2,

Wills might not have been everyone’s first choice for the Browns pick at No. 10 overall, but he’s proving worthy.

Kevin Stefanski: Browns will ‘continue to look at’ building OL depth after 3 opt-outs

Josh Kline is the best available free agent fit

After three reserves along the Browns offensive line chose to opt out of playing in the 2020 NFL season, the depth chart at guard looks perilously thin in Cleveland. New Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is acutely aware of the shortage of bodies after Drew Forbes, Malcolm Pridgeon and Drake Dorbeck all opted out.

Stefanski strongly hinted that the team will be making a move or two in order to bolster the roster for training camp and perhaps even the upcoming season. Coach Stefanski addressed the dearth of OL depth in a Zoom teleconference with reporters.

It’s certainly something that we’ll continue to look at,’’ the rookie coach said. “As it pertains to practice reps, you have to get your starters ready. You also have to get your backups ready this year. We have to be very mindful of how we divvy up those reps. I’ve sat down with the coaches already and we have a plan for that, but I don’t think it is a season where you just say, ‘Hey, I’m just getting my starters ready.’ I think that may not be smart.”

Stefanski later added that they’re not just looking for players that are easily disposed of after training camp usage.

“I think we need good players,” Stefanski stated. “I think (GM Andrew Berry) and his staff are going to work really hard at all of these positions. If we should have a need somewhere, we want to get a good player in here. We want to make sure that we are bringing guys in who have a chance to develop.”

There aren’t many players available who fit that criteria. One who is: former Vikings and Titans starter Josh Kline, who played under Stefanski in Minnesota last season. Other veteran options include Cordy Glenn, Ron Leary and Jon Halapio.

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