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The Atlanta Braves (24-12) take on the New York Mets (18-20) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game set at Citi Field on Sunday Night Baseball at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 3-2
The Braves took won the first 2 games of the series by 4-2 and 4-1 finals and enter Sunday on a 4-game win streak. Saturday was nearly a special day as the team combined for a no-hitter into the 9th inning. That 27th out proved to be elusive, though, as Mets DH J.D. Martinez ruined that with a homer one out shy of the no-no.
The Mets have lost 6 of their last 9 games and are just 9-12 at home. They’ve allowed 3 runs or more in 8 straight games but still own the 4th-best ERA (3.74) in the NL — and 11th in MLB. The offense is where the issue has been as it ranks 8th in the NL and 16th in MLB with 4.3 runs per game. 1B Pete Alonso is starting to heat up a bit, hitting .308 with a homer, 2 doubles and 4 RBIs in his last 4 games.
Braves at Mets projected starters
RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Luis Severino
Elder (1-1, 5.28 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.76 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 15 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 11-2 setback at Los Angeles Dodgers May 4
- Career starts vs. Mets: 2-0, 3.97 ERA (11 1/3 IP 5 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 2 HR, 5 BB, 11 K in 2 outings, both last season
Severino (2-2, 2.93 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 40 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 6 BB, 6 K in 7-6, 10-inning loss at Tampa Bay Rays May 5
- Career vs. Braves: 1-1, 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 2 HR, 5 BB, 10 K in 2 starts, including a 5-0 road loss (5 IP, 3 ER) with Yankees last season
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Braves at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:18 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+155) | Mets +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Braves at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Braves 4
Moneyline
It seems like when a team is no-hit, or narrowly escapes it, its bats come out blazing the next game. While I don’t really expect the Mets’ lumber to incinerate, I do think they avoid the sweep. If Severino can avoid walking the ballpark like he did in his last start, he’ll keep the Braves at bay.
Take METS (-110).
Run line/Against the spread
The books have handicapped this well. They don’t give much plus-money on the Mets’ ML and juiced up their RL to make insurance negligible.
PASS.
Over/Under
It’s slated to be 53 degrees with a 6-mph gust blowing out. We’ve had 2 Unders cash in this series, including Saturday’s game which was 1 out shy of a no-hitter.
Look for the Mets to take advantage of a starter that has allowed 9 earned runs in his last 2 starts. The Braves are always dangerous at the plate, ranking 4th in the NL and 5th in MLB with 5.0 runs per game.
Take OVER 8 (+100).
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