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The Atlanta Braves (22-12) take on the New York Mets (18-18) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Citi Field at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 2-1
The Braves were idle Thursday after taking both games at home against the Boston Red Sox Tuesday and Wednesday. They took Wednesday’s tilt 5-0 as DH Marcell Ozuna sent 2 into the seats and had 4 RBI. He leads the majors with 12 homers and 38 RBI.
The Mets were rained out in St. Louis Wednesday but took both games against the Cardinals. They came back Tuesday from an early 3-0 hole with 6 runs in the 5th. OF Brandon Nimmo and 1B Pete Alonso each homered and drove in 3 runs.
Braves at Mets projected starters
RHP Charlie Morton vs. LHP Jose Quintana
Morton (2-0, 3.50 ERA) makes his 7th start. The rookie has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 36 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K last Friday against Los Angeles Dodgers
- April 8 vs. Mets: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 4 K in 8-7 loss
Quintana (1-3, 5.20 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 36 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 2 K last Friday in 10-8 loss against Tampa Bay Rays
- April 11 vs. Braves: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 16-4 win
- Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 1-4, 5.06 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 20 K in 26 2/3 IP
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Braves at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+110) | Mets +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Braves at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Mets 3
Moneyline
The Braves are taking this game. Quintana is not missing enough bats at this stage of his career, and he has allowed 8 ER in 10 2/3 IP in his last 2 starts against Atlanta.
It’s more feasible to take the RL, though.
Instead, I’m going MARCELL OZUNA OVER 1.5 HITS+RUNS+RBIs. He hit safely in all 3 previous games against the Mets, but he only had 2+ total bases in 1 of them. So that’s why we’re avoiding his total bases prop.
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves are just 4-6 over the last 10, but 3 of those were by multiple runs – including the last 2 against Boston. Atlanta is tied for 3rd with 5.1 R/game.
Take BRAVES -1.5 (+110).
Over/Under
The Over is just 1-8-1 in Atlanta’s last 10, and the Mets are 4-6. When playing one another, the Over is 6-4 in the last 10. All 3 games in Atlanta went Over this number earlier this season.
It’s slated to be a chilly, 50 degrees with a 10-mph gust coming in from right-center. It won’t matter, though, this is going OVER 8 (-120).
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