Causes for concern as the Bills take on the Chiefs in AFC championship

Causes for concern as the Bills take on the Chiefs in AFC championship

The Buffalo Bills will play the Kansas City Chiefs on the road at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC championship game.

The Bills have won 12 of their last 13 meaningful games while the Chiefs have won 20 of their last 21 meaningful games. The Chiefs’ only loss was against Buffalo.

The Bills are 1.5-point underdogs as they enter a tough road environment versus the best coach and quarterback duo of the past decade. The last couple playoff games between these two teams have been instant classics, and this is one of the most-anticipated conference championship games in recent memory.

There are a few things that will make beating the Chiefs difficult, and the Bills will need to be wary of them.

Here are three causes for concern for the Bills against the Chiefs:

The playoff version of Travis Kelce

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Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce’s statistics took a bit of a dip this regular season compared to past years. But, last week he reminded everyone that he can turn it on when it matters the most.

In the divisional round win over the Houston Texans, Kelce recorded seven catches on eight targets for 117 yards and a touchdown.

He is one of the most reliable playoff performers in recent NFL history, and Bills head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will most likely make him a top priority in the game plan. It will take a handful of different people and great communication over the middle of the field.

Kelce has scored five touchdowns over the three playoff games he’s played against Buffalo in his career while averaging 8.7 catches and 93.3 yards per game.

Perfect at Arrowhead

(L-R) Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes hug after an NFL game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
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The Bills aren’t the only team who went undefeated at home this year, and if they are gonna make it to the Super Bowl they have to spoil another’s home streak.

The Chiefs went a perfect 8-0 in Kansas City during the regular season and added a ninth victory last week in the divisional round. They haven’t lost at home since Christmas Day in 2023.

The Bills have won their last two trips to Arrowhead, both being in the regular season, however.

The Chiefs have won their last five home playoff games. Their last home postseason loss was to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC championship in January of 2022. It’s been three years since they’ve lost there.

Andy Reid has had the upper hand

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Although the Bills are 4-4 in their last eight games against Kansas City, they’ve lost their last three meetings in the playoffs.

In his 26 seasons as head coach for both the Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, Andy Reid has an impressive 20 postseason appearances. He has five Super Bowl appearances, one with the Eagles and four in KC, with three Super Bowl wins.

With the Chiefs, he is currently on a seven-year streak of making the AFC championship game and is going for his third-consecutive Super Bowl victory, which would be the first three-peat in NFL history.

With his experience and consistent success in the league, it’s not a surprise that he’s 3-0 over coach McDermott in the postseason. Reid now has 12 appearances in conference championship games. This Sunday will mark McDermott’s second as head coach.

McDermott was an assistant under Reid for a decade in Philadelphia and now has a chance to overcome him and the Chiefs. He’s gotten close, with his last two losses to Reid in the playoffs being an overtime loss and a three-point loss.

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Bills’ hype may be disproportionate, thanks to a weak AFC East

Each AFC East team not named the Buffalo Bills combined for a record of 17-34 in 2024. Talk about lack of competition.

While it might be unfair to shade the thriving Buffalo Bills, their AFC East division wasn’t the most competitive in 2024. Each AFC East team, not named the Bills, combined for a record of 17-34, which was a strong indicator and added emphasis to the statement above.

Still, the Bills ranked just No. 17 in opponent yards allowed per game, and none of their AFC East rivals ranked within the top 15 teams in the league in total yards per game. Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich can posture all he wants, the Bills better have an answer for Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry or things can and will get out of hand fast in the AFC Divisional.

The New York Jets were a bust, the Miami Dolphins were mediocre, and I don’t think the typical NFL fan can name you any of the New England Patriots wide receivers. With six all-pro players on the roster, the Ravens should be easy favorites over the Bills. Again, however, NFL games aren’t played on paper.

3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Broncos in the Wild Card round

3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Broncos in the Wild Card round

The Buffalo Bills will play the Denver Broncos at home at Highmark Stadium in the Wild Card round.

The Bills (13-4) won 10 of 11 games before their Week 18 loss to the New England Patriots, while the Broncos (10-7) are winners in five of their last seven.

The Bills are favored by 8.5 points and they are playing at home where they were undefeated this season (8-0). The last time the Bills faced the Broncos was a regular-season loss to a Russell Wilson-led squad at quarterback in the 2023, 24-22. The Broncos will roll out rookie Bo Nix under center for this time.

Even though the Bills are favored by multiple scores, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, especially against playoff teams. Buffalo will need to execute its game plan to advance in the postseason.

With that, here are three keys to a Bills win vs. the Broncos:

Stay ahead of the sticks

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The Broncos’ pass rush is undoubtedly the team’s biggest strength. They led the NFL with 63 sacks, nine more than the second-most, and also led the NFL with 265 quarterback pressures, 10 more than the second-most. Along with that, their 37.4% pressure rate was third-best in the league.

The best way to minimize their pass rushers is to avoid second or third-and-long situations. Buffalo will need to keep Denver’s defensive front guessing between pass and run. What better team to do that than the one that just became the first team in NFL history with 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns in a season.

The more the Bills can make the down-and-distance manageable, the more they’ll be able to mix pass and run, making life easier for them on Sunday.

Disguise looks on defense

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Under defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, the Bills defense has disguised coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league (36%). With rookie signal caller Bo Nix heading into Highmark Stadium on Sunday, the disguised looks could make his first playoff start even more difficult than it will already be.

According to Pro Football Focus, Nix’s depth of target against disguised coverages is only 6.2 yards, which ranks 31st out of 32 qualifying QBs. Mixing things up post-snap has forced Nix to check the ball down for short throws this year. Nix has had a remarkable rookie year, but if there’s one way you can force him into checking it down it’s disguising the look. When Nix checks down, tackling in space will be key.

Use the home crowd for a fast start

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The most rewarding aspect of being one of the top seeds in the AFC is getting to play in front of your home crowd in the postseason. For the Bills, the “Bills Mafia” can noticeably impact a game.

With a young, scrappy team like the Broncos, you don’t want them lurking around within one score in the fourth quarter. With a proven head coach in Sean Payton, they could pull it off if given the chance late in the game.

The best way to handle the Wild Card is to ride your home crowd’s momentum into a fast start. Bills Mafia has waited 357 days since the disappointing Divisional round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs for their next chance at a home playoff game. That crowd will be rockin’.

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Causes for concern as the Bills take on the Jets in Week 17

Causes for concern as the Bills take on the Jets in Week 17

The Buffalo Bills will host the New York Jets in Week 17 at Highmark Stadium.

The Bills (12-3) and Jets (4-11) have trended in different directions this season. The Bills have won nine of their last 10 games while the Jets have lost five of their last six.

Even though Buffalo is favored to win the game, there are always a few things that make winning difficult each week. The Bills will need to be wary of them.

Here are three causes for concern for the Bills against the Jets in Week 17:

Jets skill players

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The Jets have one of the better wide-receiver duos in the NF:L. Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson are troubling to keep track of, even with high-level corners like Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, and Taron Johnson.

Parlay that with running back Breece Hall, who can do a little bit of everything out of the backfield, and you have players all over the field that you need to pay close attention to. This offense has a high ceiling, even if it hasn’t played up to it for much of the season.

Rodgers can still beat you

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Aaron Rodgers has picked up his game over recent weeks. He has reached 250 passing yards in each of the last three games. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has allowed 250-plus passing yards in each of the last three contests.

Sean McDermott, Bobby Babich, and the Bills defense need to right the ship as they head towards postseason play. Facing an Aaron Rodgers-led offense is a good test.

Divisional game

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) yells at New York Jets linebacker Jamien Sherwood (44) after throwing a touchdown during an NFL game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
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It’s a dangerous game when you have your eyes set on the playoffs and there are hungry divisional opponents still on your regular season schedule. The Bills need a win to clinch the two-seed in the AFC. And, they have now been humbled a bit by last week’s close win over the Patriots (24-21).

It was a close game in Week 6 when the Bills visited the Jets. The Bills squeaked by with a 23-20 win. Divisional games always present unique challenges. The coaching staff will have to adjust on the fly without going too deep into the playbook on Sunday.

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3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Lions in Week 15

3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Lions in Week 15

The Buffalo Bills will play the Detroit Lions on the road at Ford Field in Week 15.

The Bills (10-3) are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Los Angeles Rams last week, while the Lions (12-1) are riding an 11-game win streak.

The Lions are favored by 2.5 points in Week 15. The two teams haven’t met since Thanksgiving Day in 2022 when the Bills won in dramatic fashion, 28-25.

The Lions are at the top of most power rankings ahead of Sunday. Buffalo will need to execute its game plan to pick up its eleventh win of the year.

With that, here are three keys to a Bills win in Week 15:

Attack the Lions’ man coverage

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The Lions are a defense that stays true to who they are. According to Pro Football Focus, they currently rank first in the NFL in man coverage rate (42.4%) and dead last in zone coverage rate (53.2%). And, they rank in the top three in defensive success rate while in man coverage. They will line up man-to-man and make opposing receivers win their matchups.

Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady has provided quarterback Josh Allen with simple looks to beat man coverage this year. If Allen can take advantage of the one-on-one matchups, it will be a long day for the Lions’ secondary. Look for Allen to lean on Amari Cooper against man, and if Keon Coleman (wrist) can play, he is usually a mismatch one-on-one with his athletic ability.

Better performance from the D-line

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The Bills’ defensive line had a rough outing against the Rams They couldn’t generate a pass rush and they were getting pushed around against the run. They will need to step up considering their opponent. The Lions have arguably the best offensive line in football when healthy. Penei Sewell is their best player, as his 88.5 overall PFF grade leads all tackles this year.

Buffalo defensive coordinator Bobby Babich called out the defense following their lackluster performance in Week 14, saying it was a “conglomeration of people not doing their jobs at a high level.”

Babich did note that he has to be better, but it will be interesting to see how the defense responds in a tough environment at Ford Field.

Get out to a fast start

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The Bills are 6-0 in home games this year, but just 4-3 on the road. And, it mostly boils down to the fact that they have put themselves in a hole early in away games. In five of the seven road games, the Bills fell behind early and had to claw back into the game. The only road games where they started fast were blowouts at the Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seahawks.

If the Bills can set the tone with some early stops on defense and scores on offense, it would be a huge momentum boost. Ford Field is a difficult environment to play in, and it would become much more difficult to play from behind.

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Bills’ offensive coordinator Joe Brady explains late QB sneak vs. Rams

Bills’ offensive coordinator Joe Brady explains late QB sneak vs. Rams

The Buffalo Bills lost to the Los Angeles Rams 42-44 on Sunday in Inglewood, CA.

The Rams came out swinging, competing in all three phases early to take a sizable lead.

Their offense never took their foot off the pedal, and while the Bills offense kept pace in a scoring shootout their defense and special teams were not able to get meaningful stops.

Near the end of the contest, some questionable playcalling caused a domino effect sequence that has raised game and clock management questions similar to the team’s loss to the Houston Texans earlier this season.

And it started with a failed quarterback sneak attempt at the goal line.

Head coach Sean McDermott would call a timeout after a failed QB sneak and before their last touchdown, which then led to an onside kick the Bills didn’t recover. The Buffalo defense was able to force a punt but needed to attempt a block to have the best chance, but there was no punt rush on the play.

“The highest percentage play at that point was just doing a QB sneak,” OC Joe Brady said about the play call. “At the same time, the cost of not getting it essentially, potentially, and kind of did cost us the game. So I have to do a better job in that situation. At the end of the day, we can’t burn a timeout there.”

Josh Allen rushing is as good a play as any in the red zone. After all, he has more rushing touchdowns at age 28 than some Hall of Fame running backs had in their entire careers. Still, on this attempt, the unsuccessful play proved costly.

“If we’re going to call it, we have to make sure that we know 100% that we can get it. I felt confident in it and felt confident in doing it. But that doesn’t make it right,” he said.

The sequence garnered a strong response from long-time Bills divisional nemesis and UGG spokesman turned FOX Sports analyst, Tom Brady.

“To me, take three shots throwing it—don’t use a timeout. Then you can kick it deep, use your three timeouts to still get the football with good time. That changes the entire complexity of the last 1:02 of the game. I did not like that one bit. That could’ve just cost them the game right there.”

While these statements all ring true, the Bills defense also had some explaining to do after failing to stop much less slow down the Rams offense.

DC Bobby Babich spoke about the grouping of issues that compounded throughout the game after his unit gave up a season-high 44 points.

“When you look at it and you really watch the tape, it’s, and I used this word earlier today, it’s a conglomeration, and I’m including myself, of people not doing their jobs at a high level,” he said. “The recipe to lose a football game is what we did yesterday, and it starts with me, first and foremost, what I did yesterday, and we just got to learn from it. Move on and not let it happen again.”

They’ll face a Lions team next week that has the No. 1 ranked scoring offense in the NFL, and Babich knows they will need to be at their best in the matchup.

“I believe our guys are up to the challenge, and they’re ready to respond.”

3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Rams in Week 14

3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the Rams in Week 14

The Buffalo Bills will play the Los Angeles Rams on the road at SoFi Stadium in Week 14.

The Bills (10-2) are looking to build on a seven-game win streak, while the Rams (6-6) have won five of their last seven after starting 1-4.

Buffalo opened as 4.5-point favorites on the road. The two teams haven’t met since the season opener in 2022 when the Bills beat the Super Bowl-defending Rams, 31-10.

Even though the Bills are favored, the Rams are one of the hotter teams in the NFL and are in a competitive race for the NFC West crown.

Buffalo  will need to execute their game plan to pick up their eleventh win of the year.

With that, here are three keys to a Bills win in Week 14:

Make them stop the run

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Last week, the Bills spammed the running game against the 49ers and it resulted in 220 rushing yards and 35 points on the board. It will be difficult to repeat that success again this week, but the Rams have shown they can be hurt on the ground.

Two weeks ago, the Philadelphia Eagles’ Saquon Barkley did whatever he pleased against them. He ran for 255 yards and two scores on 26 carries. And last week, the Saints’ Alvin Kamara put up 112 rushing yards on 23 carries.

The Bills are at their best when they are a threat both on the ground and through the air. With this game being played in a dome (SoFi Stadium), many will be looking for Josh Allen to put up numbers in the passing game after only 148 pass yards in last week’s snow game. But if the Bills are wise, they won’t abandon the run and they’ll make the Rams have to defend in the trenches on defense.

Contain Rams pass rush

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Despite the loss of Aaron Donald, the young defenders on the defensive line for the Rams have done a solid job in keeping their pass rush competitive. They have four d-linemen with at least 4.5 sacks: Jared Verse (4.5), Kobie Turner (5), Byron Young (6), Braden Fiske (6).

More specifically, Verse has shown improvement this year. According to Pro Football Focus, he is the 12th-most productive pass-rushing edge defender with a pass-rush grade of 82.4.

The Bills haven’t allowed a sack in either of their last two games against the Chiefs and 49ers. That was a big reason they were able to put up 30+ points against both Super Bowl representatives from last year. If the Bills offensive line continues its high level of play, Allen could be in for a big day.

Limit explosives from McVay’s offense

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It’s no secret that the Rams offense has the potential to go toe-to-toe with anyone on any given Sunday. Led by offensive-minded head coach Sean McVay, quarterback Matt Stafford has a few premiere weapons to spread the ball around to.

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are one of the league’s best wide receiver duos, so the Bills’ secondary will have their hands full. The duo both found the field healthy together for the first time in Week 8 after missing much of the season.

Stafford has thrown for eight touchdowns on downfield passes (10+ yards) since Week 8, which is the third-most in the NFL in the span, and he has averaged 11.3 yards per attempt on those throws. The entire team has been lifted since Kupp and Nacua became healthy.

The running game was also effective for them last week as Kyren Williams ran for 104 yards and a touchdown on 6.9 yards per carry. The offense can beat you in many ways much like the Bills’ offense. It will be another test for Sean McDermott, Bobby Babich, and the Bills defense to limit their explosive plays and keep them in check.

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Causes for concern as the Bills face the Chiefs in Week 11

Causes for concern as the Bills face the Chiefs in Week 11

The Buffalo Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium in Week 11.

The Bills (8-2) and Chiefs (9-0) are the top two seeds in the AFC currently. The second-place Bills are riding a five-game win streak while the top-seeded Chiefs haven’t lost since Christmas Day in 2023.

Even though Buffalo is favored to win the game, there are always a few things that make winning difficult each week. The Bills will need to be wary of them.

Here are three causes for concern for the Bills in Week 11:

Chris Jones is a disrupter

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Chris Jones continues to be a menace on the defensive line for the Chiefs in his ninth season. His specialty is getting after the passer. Pro Football Focus grades him as the best pass rusher of all interior defenders in the NFL, with a pass rush grade of 90.8.

They don’t just use him in the interior, either. He bounces around the defensive line and can take advantage of mismatches wherever they see fit. If the Bills are without right tackle Spencer Brown, Jones could be even more of a problem for quarterback Josh Allen and the offense.

Time of possession

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The Chiefs average the most time of possession per game in the NFL. Their average of just over 33 minutes of possession per game means they possess the ball about six minutes longer then their opponent. Allen is right up there with Patrick Mahomes as far as quarterback talent, but if Allen has the ball six minutes less than Mahomes, it will make it hard to bring down the undefeated, reigning champs.

If the Bills defense can’t get the Chiefs off the field, then it will play into exactly how the Chiefs have been winning games this year. They’ve had long drives on offense and on defense they have held their opponents to 17.9 points per game (T-5th in the NFL).

Babich’s first go-round with KC

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This will be a big game for first-year defensive play caller Bobby Babich. It will be his first time calling plays against Andy Reid and the Chiefs offense. Babich has had an excellent first year as defensive coordinator, but he has struggled against some of the league’s better offenses like the Baltimore Ravens.

This will be a big stepping stone in his young career. If his defense is flying around and making plays against Mahomes, then it is a huge win for the Bills going forward. If the Bills struggle with some of the creativity that is usually seen from a Reid offense, then it could be a long day for Buffalo.

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Bills vs. Colts: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 10

Bills vs. Colts: 3 key matchups to watch in Week 10

The Buffalo Bills (7-2) will face the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) on the road in their upcoming Week 10 matchup.

The games within the game will make all the difference for the Bills as they try to win in Indianapolis for the first time since 1999.

Here are three key matchups to watch during Sunday’s Bills-Colts contest:

Bills front seven vs. Jonathan Taylor

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The Bills’ front seven has been inconsistent this year in defending the ground game, and they have been under the microscope this week after allowing the Miami Dolphins to run all over them. Running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert each averaged over five yards per carry and combined for 119 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Now, they have Jonathan Taylor to worry about.

Taylor has been one of the best backs in the NFL when healthy since he entered the league. This year he is averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry and is 19th in the NFL in rushing yards (502), just ahead of James Cook (496).

The Bills will need execution and effort from their front seven throughout the game to keep Taylor in check. Guys like DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, and Greg Rousseau will be counted on to make an impact at the line of scrimmage.

CB Taron Johnson vs. WR Josh Downs

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Slot cornerback Taron Johnson, a second-team All-Pro last year, will be tested by a young up-and-comer in Week 10. Second-year wide receiver Josh Downs operates out of the slot and has quickly gained rapport with quarterback Joe Flacco.

In four games together this year, Downs has averaged 9.75 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 69.25 receiving yards per contest. He has the most catches from Flacco by a decent margin and has been the most-targeted receiver in all four games.

Johnson has a tough task with keeping tabs on Downs and also being ready to head downhill to tackle Taylor in the running game. It’s a tall task but that’s nothing new for one of the best nickel corners in the game.

QB Joe Flacco vs. Bills pass coverage

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We could more widely talk about the playcalling duel between Shane Steichen and Bobby Babich, but let’s zoom in a bit. Flacco vs the Bills’ coverage will be a chess match to watch.

Flacco has been around the block. In his 17th year, he is still proving he can be effective. He has seven touchdowns and two interceptions through four games played, and his 94.5 passer rating ranks 14th in the NFL.

The Bills passing defense struggled against the Dolphins last week as Tua Tagovailoa completed 89% of his passes. The Bills currently rank middle-of-the-pack in passing defense DVOA (15th).

The defense might have a little bit of an easier day if WR Michael Pittman Jr. can’t play due to injury, but what would really help them is having more of a pass rush.

What we learned from the Bills’ Week 9 win vs. Dolphins

What we learned from the Bills’ Week 9 win vs. Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills continued their 2024 schedule with a Week 9 win over the Miami Dolphins, 30-27.

The Bills (7-2) needed a full-team effort to fend off a hungry Dolphins team (2-6) trying to turn their season around. Ultimately, it took a long field goal with just seconds on the clock for the Bills to get it done at home.

After two-straight blowout victories, Buffalo certainly were tested by their division rival. As the season unfolds, we are learning more and more about this year’s Bills team.

Here are five things we learned from Week 9’s win over the Dolphins:

Tyler Bass’ morale at an all-time high

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Kicker Tyler Bass played the role of hero for the Bills in Week 9. His 61-yarder with 5 seconds left proved to be the game-winner. It was not only a career-long for Bass, but it broke a Bills franchise record previously held by Steve Christie (59-yarder in 1993).

Given the inconsistency from Bass recently, the kick proved huge for his morale and the team as a whole. After receiving the game ball post-game, Bass got emotional when talking about his teammates having his back through the ups and downs.

Defense was gashed

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The Bills defense had a rough outing. Through the air, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was 25-of-28 and only took one sack. And on the ground, running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert averaged more than five yards per carry.

If it wasn’t for a couple of red zone stops and a crucial forced fumble from Buffalo cornerback Taron Johnson, we could have a different conversation this week regarding both the Bills and Dolphins.

After all, this was a desperate Dolphins team that has always had the potential to explode on offense. Expect Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich to right the ship on defense going forward.

Ray Davis continues to flash

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Running back Ray Davis continues to make the most of his opportunities in his rookie year. On the ground in Week 9, Davis averaged five yards a pop on his four carries. But, his real impact was through the air.

He took two passes for 70 yards, one being a 63-yard catch and run for a touchdown. That’s 90 yards from scrimmage on just six touches.

His long touchdown gave the Bills a seven-point lead late in the third quarter:

Allen still owns Miami

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Bills quarterback Josh Allen took a couple of big hits and missed a few throws, but ultimately controlled the game throughout. He was 25-of-39 passing for 235 yards and posted three passing touchdowns and one interception.

If it wasn’t for a drop by receiver Keon Coleman deep in the red zone that resulted in an interception, he would have had four touchdowns and zero picks.

He didn’t have to put the cape on and be Superman much, but he did when the offense needed it. He slipped away to scramble for 14 yards on a 3rd and 12 at the end of the first half, and he also made a remarkable touchdown throw to tight end Quintin Morris as he was being tackled by two defenders:

Winning in different ways

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This wasn’t an easy day for the Bills by any means. The Dolphins had their backs against the wall while preparing for it, albeit was just Week 9. It was nearly a must-win game for them, and they played like it.

They had more first downs than the Bills (26-24), more total yards (373-325), more yards per play (6.2-5.5), more time of possession (31:53-28:07), and they converted better in the red zone (3/4-2/5).

Buffalo has grown accustomed to overpowering teams on offense and defense. In this one, they won differently. They only had four penalties, forced a crucial turnover when they needed it, and special teams came through in a big way.

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