Tag: Big Ten

In a thoroughly weird college basketball season — a season so odd that Ohio State is 1-4 in the Big Ten without having played Michigan or Michigan State — Wisconsin has been part of the weirdness. Yet, the Badgers have contributed to this bizarre season in ways which aren’t entirely bad.

The 5-5 start was bad, but in January, the Badgers have been a mostly pleasant surprise in the Big Ten. How surprising? Get this: Imagine being told on Christmas Day that Wisconsin — the same team which couldn’t tie its shoelaces away from the Kohl Center in November and early December — would enter its January 14 (Tuesday) game against Maryland as the Big Ten team with the most total road wins (3). Imagine being told that this Wisconsin team which was a total mess away from Madison in the first month of the season would enter January 14 as the Big Ten leader in conference road wins (2).

Wisconsin can’t let home games against other Big Ten bubble teams such as Illinois slip away. UW badly needs that win on Tuesday against Maryland. However, we can focus more on that game when it arrives in a few days. For now, simply appreciate the enormity of the turnaround Wisconsin has made on the road. Ohio State is struggling, and to be brutally honest about it, Penn State is struggling as well. Yet, Wisconsin was hardly a clear favorite heading into Columbus on Jan. 3. It was hardly a clear favorite heading into State College on Saturday, Jan. 11. Yet, it won both games, and it did so despite scoring an average of just under 60 points per game — 61 against Ohio State, 58 on Saturday versus Penn State.

There are still two months left in the season — two months for the Badgers to develop on offense and find a more blended, consistent attack. Two months isn’t an eternity, but two months do give UW some time and space in which to grow. Maybe by early March, this offense will purr with efficiency and precision. However, in the short run — certainly in the next few weeks — Wisconsin will need to remain the team it became against Ohio State and Penn State: a defensive terror which causes opponents to hesitate and punishes skilled players if they don’t work hard without the ball.

That was the defining aspect of this win over Penn State: The Nittany Lions were asking for the ball on passes from teammates instead of actually working to get open. Penn State expected it could create shots with one-on-one play instead of using harmonious, five-as-one offense to create good scoring chances with ball movement and player movement. The ball stuck for Penn State, and Wisconsin showed no mercy, holding PSU under 50 points.

We have said it for the past several weeks: Wisconsin has to play and win street fights, because its offense is not a very developed one. That developmental process might require the whole season. The Badgers certainly aren’t close to where they need to be on offense. The defense has to carry them.

What’s good: Wisconsin can play like this on the road. Now, let’s see if the Badgers can defend like that at home.

Did we say this was a weird season?

The Wisconsin Badgers were steadily moving in the right direction before Wednesday night’s game against the Illinois Fighting Illini. Four straight wins, two of them on the road, one against a likely NCAA Tournament team (Ohio State), all solidified Wisconsin’s resume. However, the Badgers needed to continue to stack wins together. More precisely, they needed to continue to win against NCAA Tournament teams. Milwaukee (Dec. 21) and Rider (Dec. 31) won’t move the needle in terms of bubble placement.

After losing 71-70 to Illinois at home, the Badgers are very much a bubble team, if there was doubt about their status before tip-off. The Badgers have some decent wins which should look good in two months, but they don’t have any conversation-ending, debate-settling wins in a fragile college basketball ecosystem which is still very hard to define.

As you consider the bubble landscape, just how worried should you be? With two months until Selection Sunday, it is too early to make very specific and targeted comparisons between Team A here and Team B over there. We can’t really say that certain teams are battling for at-large bids. That discussion comes into focus in the middle of February. What CAN be said, however, about the bubble right now is that it is extremely large in the Big Ten. Consider what Chris Dobbertean of SB Nation’s Blogging the Bracket had to say about Illinois’ win over Wisconsin:

Illinois snaps a 15-game losing streak to Wisconsin, 71-70 IN MADISON.

The dream of a 12 B1G bids is alive!

— Chris Dobbertean (@ChrisDobbertean) January 9, 2020

Chris is not predicting that 12 Big Ten teams will get into the field of 68. He is, however, noting that a lot of Big Ten teams (everyone but Northwestern and Nebraska) has a real chance to get in. There are a lot of resumes with a “kinda sorta maybe” quality to them: obviously worthy of being considered, but just as clearly not good enough to feel secure about the NCAA Tournament. The coming weeks will likely bump a few Big Ten teams into the NIT, but with so many teams winning at home and losing on the road, the Big Ten is very bunched in the middle, with the two NU schools at the bottom and Michigan State at the top. If teams continue to trade wins and losses, the Big Ten bubble will remain very large.

That is one point to keep in mind.

Here is the other one: What happens in one conference has to be measured against other conferences when assessing bubble odds and prospects. The ACC is not very good this season. North Carolina isn’t even a bubble team… unless you are talking about the NIT. UNC might have to play in the CBI this season. Syracuse is in a similar spot.

If you look at the ACC right now, only four teams — Duke, Florida State, Louisville, and Virginia — are in good shape for an NCAA bid. Three other teams — Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and Pittsburgh — are in bubble territory. This is no joke: The ACC might get only five bids this season. If the ACC gets only five, and the SEC (which has struggled) gets only four bids, and the Pac-12 gets only three, other conferences will have many bids to grab. Enter the Big Ten.

Wisconsin is competing with other Big Ten teams for an at-large bid, but it is also competing with Pittsburgh and USC and bubble teams in other conferences. The Big Ten bubble is an inconvenience — more bubble competition inside the league — but it is also a sign that the teams Wisconsin will play in the coming weeks are decent teams. This means the more Wisconsin can win in this conference (against teams other than Nebraska and Northwestern), the more its resume should improve.

This is what one has to keep in mind about the huge Big Ten bubble of 2020.