2017 Big Ten title game offers lessons for Wisconsin vs. Ohio State

Sizing up the 2019 Big Ten Championship Game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Ohio State Buckeyes through the prism of 2017.

The 2017 Big Ten Championship Game between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Ohio State Buckeyes does not offer a perfect template for Wisconsin as it prepares for a 2019 rematch in Indianapolis. However, several components of this game show the Badgers what they need to replicate on Saturday night.

The best things Wisconsin did in that 27-21 loss to Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes: First of all, the Badgers produced takeaways which had a high level of impact. Andrew Van Ginkel produced a pick-six when the Wisconsin offense was floundering in the first quarter. Two other takeaways were part of a gallant defensive effort in which Ohio State constantly moved the ball — 449 total yards — but didn’t score 30 points.

Second, Wisconsin’s defense stood tall in the red zone. Ohio State twice settled for field goals inside the Badgers’ 11-yard line. That was another reason the Buckeyes finished with only 27 points instead of a much higher number on the scoreboard.

Third, Wisconsin’s run-pass mix was 41 passes to 32 rushes. That isn’t an ideal run-pass mix, but do remember that Ohio State jumped out to a 21-7 lead. Wisconsin had to throw a lot more than it would have liked in this game. To throw only nine times more than the Badgers rushed the ball is an achievement under those circumstances. Wisconsin knew that even though it was trailing, it had to rest its defense and rely on what worked best.

YES, the late-game drive in that 2017 Big Ten title tilt wasn’t good, and YES, Wisconsin needed downfield passes in that game which didn’t emerge in crucial moments. That was a pronounced flaw of the evening in Indy. However, in terms of a 60-minute approach, Paul Chryst’s plan was sound. The plan wasn’t adjusted to the extent it needed to be at the end of the game, but the larger whole was not misguided. It was fundamentally the right way to play Ohio State under those circumstances. The key detail which supports this thesis: Wisconsin, despite an offense which frankly wasn’t all that good in that game (under 300 total yards, only 14 points scored since seven were produced by the pick-six of J.T. Barrett), nevertheless kept the ball for 34 minutes. If Wisconsin had kept the ball for only 30 minutes, the score is probably more lopsided in Ohio State’s favor.

Wisconsin didn’t do a number of things well — we’ll have more on that in a separate post — but in terms of takeaways, red-zone defense, and time of possession, the Badgers checked some of the boxes they will need to check off in 2019 this coming weekend.

One fact magnifies Wisconsin and Ohio State before B1G title game

A simple fact shows how successful the Wisconsin Badgers and Ohio State Buckeyes really are.

Simple facts can convey profound truths. Such is the case before the Wisconsin Badgers face the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2019 Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis on Saturday. Let’s put it very plainly: With Paul Chryst and Ryan Day representing their teams in Lucas Oil Stadium, Wisconsin and Ohio State are the only two Big Ten programs which have made the Big Ten Championship Game with more than one coach.

Wisconsin, of course, is the leader among Big Ten programs in this regard: Three separate coaches have led the Badgers to Indianapolis. No other Big Ten program can make that claim. Bret Bielema and Gary Andersen preceded Chryst, who — on his own — has made three Big Ten title games, as many as Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio. Only Urban Meyer has made more Big Ten title games (four) than Chryst.

Ryan Day enables Ohio State to be the only program other than Wisconsin which has placed multiple coaches in the Big Ten Championship Game. These two programs — UW and OSU — are the leaders in overall Big Ten title game appearances, and they are the only two with multiple coaches in this game. If that isn’t a strong indication of sustained quality as a program, nothing is.

What is also worth noting, as we assess the significance of Wisconsin and Ohio State reaching Indianapolis with multiple head coaches, is that while Ryan Day has been superb this season, he is doing this with Urban Meyer’s players. This doesn’t diminish what Day has done this year. Yet, it is an obvious challenge — and rite of passage — for head coaches at elite programs to move past successes with inherited talent, and arrive at a point when they can say they built their own successes.

Yes, Day’s successes in 2019 are his own to the extent that he has coached this team. He has occupied a leadership position. He has carried the responsibility of guiding Ohio State through a full season. Yet, we all know that it’s one thing to coach inherited talent to the top. Coaching your own talent to the top is the higher and fuller measure of coaching prowess.

Paul Chryst and Wisconsin have attained that. Ryan Day and Ohio State? We will have to wait until the next decade to truly find out.

Big Ten Championship Game: Wisconsin is part of a B1G trinity

Reflections on the Wisconsin Badgers’ sixth appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Minnesota is in the rearview mirror. Let’s now move to the Big Ten Championship Game this upcoming Saturday against Ohio State. We have plenty of time to unpack numerous angles related to this contest. Let’s start with some aspects of Big Ten Championship Game history at the end of the first decade for this standalone event, which began in 2011.

It is fitting that Wisconsin and Michigan State played in the first Big Ten Championship Game, with Ohio State stuck for one season between the end of the Jim Tressel era and the beginning of the Urban Meyer era. Ohio State’s 2011 mess and its 2012 lack of eligibility for postseason play are why the Badgers have the most Big Ten Championship Game appearances at the end of the decade, with six. A 6 of 9 “shooting line” is 67 percent from the field, so to speak. That will do. It speaks to Wisconsin’s consistency and dependability as a program.

The surprise is not that Wisconsin has been consistent. It was consistent in the late 1990s. It was consistent in the several seasons immediately preceding the 2011 campaign, the first year with a Big Ten Championship Game. Wisconsin has generally been a 10-win program over the past two decades, with a brief period of drift in the early 2000s and an occasional ho-hum season (such as 2018 for Paul Chryst) in which a lot of things went wrong.

No, the surprise is not that Wisconsin has been consistent, or that Michigan State and Ohio State have also made multiple return trips to the Big Ten Championship Game in this decade, which is about to end. The surprise is that no one else in this conference has been particularly consistent at the higher end of performance.

Yes, Penn State has become fairly strong in recent seasons, and the Nittany Lions could become the team which makes an upward move among the Big Ten’s best teams in the 2020s. Yes, Michigan has not been terrible; its biggest sin under Jim Harbaugh is that it can’t match the juggernaut Urban assembled, and Ryan Day sustained this year, at Ohio State. Nevertheless, Michigan has not been relentlessly consistent in the way it used to be under Lloyd Carr. Yes, Minnesota could become the fresh new face in the top tier of the Big Ten in the coming decade.

Yet, all of them haven’t truly maintained a regular annual home in the top tier of the Big Ten. The first nine seasons of divisional play and a Big Ten Championship Game reveal that Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State are the ONLY three programs to make the Big Ten title game more than once.

Does that surprise you? Maybe the current pecking order in the Big Ten — with a second Wisconsin-Ohio State B1G championship showdown in three seasons — casts that statement in a different light. Maybe it is so expected that Ohio State and Wisconsin will win their respective divisions that the above fact doesn’t resonate very strongly. Fair enough.

Yet, I ask you to pause for a moment. Just absorb this question and what it means: In 2011, when the first Big Ten Championship Game was played, were you prepared to think that Michigan would not play in ANY of the first nine B1G title games?

Were you prepared to think that Nebraska would play in only one, and go seven years (and counting) without so much as a division title? Were you prepared to think after 2015 that Iowa would not get back to this game in the remainder of the decade?

The fact that we have had nine Big Ten title games (including this upcoming 2019 edition) means that 18 berths in the Big Ten Championship Game have been allotted in the past nine seasons. The leaderboard looks like this:

  • Wisconsin, 6 berths
  • Ohio State, 5
  • Michigan State, 3
  • Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State, and Northwestern, all with 1 apiece

The top two aren’t surprising at all, and in 2012, Ohio State would have qualified had it been eligible. The surprise is how few Big Ten programs have returned to Indy… and Michigan State, after so many strong seasons, is a program in decline, with Mark Dantonio’s career seemingly out of gas.

Wisconsin and Ohio State, it can reasonably be argued, are not only the two most reliable programs in the Big Ten; they might be the ONLY reliable programs in this conference.

Badgers move up to No. 10 in latest Amway Coaches’ Poll

Following an incredible, statement-making over the Minnesota Gophers on the road, the Wisconsin Badgers had a major move in the latest Amway Coaches’ Poll, powered by USA Today Sports, moving up four spots to No. 10 this week. Overall, the Badgers …

Following an incredible, statement-making over the Minnesota Gophers on the road, the Wisconsin Badgers had a major move in the latest Amway Coaches’ Poll, powered by USA Today Sports, moving up four spots to No. 10 this week.

Overall, the Badgers (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten) did what they had to do, and more, winning and earning a spot in the Big Ten Championship against quite possibly the best team in the country, No. 2 Ohio State. Up next, Wisconsin will travel to Indianapolis to face the undefeated Buckeyes (12-0, 9-0) for the conference title.

Minnesota (10-2, 7-2), who was dominated at home by the Badgers, took a nose dive with the loss and fell six spots to No. 15 after their home finale. The Badgers beat the Golden Gophers in their final game of the regular season, and of course retained Paul Bunyan’s Axe, a major part of the historic rivalry.

Wisconsin is still one of an impressive six Big Ten teams in the Amway Coaches’ poll. The Big Ten conference has proven yet again to be one of the toughest football conferences in the country, with four teams in the top 15 alone, and all six of the Big Ten teams just inside the top 20 of the poll.

 

Week 14 CFP Implications: Chalk or chaos?

With just one week remaining in the college football season, we can look at the likely Playoff participants based on the outcomes.

A wild college football weekend saw the second Iron Bowl win by Auburn in the last three years. This time, though, it means that we will have a College Football Playoff without Alabama for the first time ever. We also saw Ohio State once again blow out a Michigan team expected to be competitive.

So, where does this leave us in the College Football race? We have five potentially meaningful games next week, though depending on how the other games go, the ACC Championship Game might not mean much. Let’s break down the stakes in each of the conference championship games. But first, let’s talk about what makes life simple for the committee.

The chalk scenario

There is only one real case of chalk this upcoming week. That would be championship game wins by Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson. As long as that happens, three Playoff spots are locked up. If Oregon wins, then the Big 12 champion is the fourth team. If Utah beats Oregon (especially if it’s by a wide margin), then we’ll have a two-team bubble of Utah and the Big 12 champion. The second case might be a tough choice for the committee, but at least it’s simple, clear-cut, and involves picking only one out of two teams. Any other scenario, and the committee is stuck sifting out three or more teams for at least the final two spots. That could be messy in a lot of ways, though considering Ohio State and LSU as virtual locks might make things easier. We can’t say any of that for sure until we see the games, though.

Next… The five conference championship games