Tag: Big 12 football schedule

Breaking down every Big 12 game in Week 8 including Texas and Houston

We look at the entire Big 12 slate for Week 8.

We have arrived at Week 8 with several Big 12 teams playing meaningful football. While we know Oklahoma and Texas are the two top teams in the conference there isn’t much else we can say of the league.

The Big 12 has become the most unpredictable league in college football. Not long ago, Oklahoma State and Houston looked like sinking ships. In the last few weeks, the teams upset three conference contenders in Kansas State, Kansas and West Virginia.

Houston stands as Texas’ next opponent in what figures to be a game fraught with unexpected twists and turns. As for Oklahoma State, the Cowboys look to follow the Houston Cougars’ upset win over West Virginia with one of their own.

Let’s look at the Week 8 set of games for the Big 12 conference.

Advanced stats heavily favor Texas over Kansas per Parker Fleming

Texas appears heavily favored based on how it matches up with Kansas.

Texas is heavily favored over Kansas based on advanced stats. It concurs with out original prediction for the game and how the Longhorns fared against Jayhawks last season.

According to football statistics expert Parker Fleming and his statistical model, Texas has a 94.7% chance to win the game. The Longhorns are projected to win by an average score of approximately 43-18.

Kansas has won all its games this season, including impressive wins over Illinois and BYU. It has been better than Texas situationally and in total offense and defense statistics. Even so, when scaled to which teams they have faced the Longhorns might have an upper hand.

Texas is bigger, faster and stronger than Kansas. It likely isn’t going to be moved around by the Jayhawks offensive line up front. And while we can expect Kansas to land some punches, the rosters aren’t all that different than in last season’s 55-14 Texas win.

If Texas shows up prepared, it may not win by this projected margin. Nevertheless, the Longhorns should leave them game 5-0 heading into the Red River Rivalry match next week.

Looking at what Texas is up against with undefeated Kansas

Does Kansas have the level of athlete to keep up with Texas?

The No. 3 Texas Longhorns (4-0) will face the No. 24 Kansas Jayhawks (4-0) in Austin on Saturday. The game provides Texas with its second ranked matchup of the season.

Saturday poses one of the toughest challenges for the Texas defense. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels leads an offense that ranks No. 25 in yards per game (463.0), No. 12 in rushing offense (217.8) and No. 59 in passing offense (245.2). Given how well Baylor executed downfield throws against the Longhorns, the Jayhawks should be able to land a few of their own.

The challenge for Kansas comes on defense, where the Texas Longhorns rushing attack looks to run as effectively as it did last year vs. this squad. Last season, Texas ran for 427 yards including an 11-carry, 108-yard performance from Jonathon Brooks. It’s unclear how much better Kansas has become in run defense, but the Texas offense has certainly improved.

There’s a reason Texas borders on a 17-point favorite. It was favored by that much last week. The Longhorns should impose their will on the Jayhawks in the run game. How many stops Texas can make defensively and how much focus it plays with should determine by how much it can win this game.

How Texas can avoid blindsiding loss it suffered in Week 4 last season

Last season, Texas lost to a lesser team to open conference play. It looks to avoid that fate this season.

The Texas Longhorns have suffered unexpected losses far too often in recent seasons. Last year was no exception. In 2022, Texas lost four games. Two came against teams it should have beaten with ease.

The Longhorns opened Big 12 play with an overtime loss to Texas Tech last season. The Red Raiders entered the game with a 2-1 record following a 27-14 loss to NC State. To put the Longhorns’ Week 4 loss in perspective, Texas Tech fans stormed the field earlier in the season after a three-point overtime win over the Houston Cougars.

This season, Texas opens conference play with a similar opponent. The Baylor Bears have potential to pull an upset any given week, but have struggled in early action in 2023. Even so, this week’s matchup is the type of game that could make an entire season for Baylor. To suggest that they cannot win the game after the Longhorns’ last three weeks might be too optimistic.

Texas can, and should, win the game. That said, the Longhorns have played with fire too often this season. Should they continue to play with fire, they can expect to get burned.

How does Texas avoid a blindsiding loss? The team needs to bring a level of urgency we haven’t seen outside of the Alabama game. It needs to avoid topping the FBS leaderboard in drop percentage in Week 4. It needs its quarterback to bring a higher level of focus as well.

Texas is not far from being a trustworthy team again. Winning its next game would get it closer to earning that trust.

Texas takes on Baylor at 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC.

Previewing the final rivalry matchup between Texas and Baylor

We preview the Longhorns’ crucial Big 12 season opener against the Baylor Bears.

The Texas Longhorns (3-0) face the Baylor Bears (1-2) on Saturday. It could be the final meeting between the two teams.

It’s a significant game for both teams. We have noted the importance of the game to Baylor alumni this week, but it needs to be as important to Texas given what is at stake.

The Longhorns have something to lose. The team is undefeated and ranked No. 3 in the country presently. Its goals and aspirations are all ahead of the team.

In our fall camp preview, we stated the importance of a 4-0 start in the 2023 season. I wrote the following on that topic.

“Texas can avoid letting a win slip away against Alabama or getting upset by Baylor early with a changed mindset. … (The program) shouldn’t be able to stomach another bitter upset loss to Baylor by the fourth game. It’s no longer okay for Texas to lose any of the first four games. Leadership will have to elevate the Longhorns to meet that standard.”

Now Texas’ leadership gets its opportunity to play championship-level football. It can start by performing well in the conference opener.

Let’s preview the game between Texas and Baylor.

Looking at how Texas football will navigate a tough November slate

A tough November could determine whether or not Texas reaches 10 wins this season.

The Texas football program begins a crucial 2023 season in just over three months. In many ways this has to be the year the Longhorns break through. For starters, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian has yet to win 10 games as a head coach. More than that, he has a program loaded and ready to win now.

We’ve written extensively on what Texas returns, but less about what the program could lose after this season. While the offense could lose a good amount of upperclassmen, it should be in good hands after this season. The defense could be a different story.

The Longhorns’ secondary is comprised of four seniors with Jalen Catalon, Ryan Watts, Jerrin Thompson and Jahdae Barron. The experience is a huge advantage for the current squad, but one that could cause next year’s team to struggle. For that reason, Texas needs to win now. To do so, the team needs to make it through a tough November slate.

It’s very possible Texas starts the season 8-0. I’ve predicted as much and believe the team matches up well enough with the first eight teams to secure wins. After that comes the gauntlet of potential upsets. Texas hosts Kansas State and Texas Tech while traveling to TCU and Iowa State.

Let’s break down each of the final four matchups of the year.

Every Big 12 football team’s biggest game in 2023

We look at the games every Big 12 team should have circled in 2023.

All college football games count the same, but some have an impact that extends far beyond the season. We saw Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher embrace that philosophy in 2021 where the team sauntered through half the season with its entire focus on beating Alabama.

Despite an 8-4 season, A&M’s win over the Crimson Tide helped Fisher and company to the No. 1 recruiting class for 2022. Other teams have certain games on their mind for different reasons.

Rivalry games can swing perception for some programs. High profile wins can aid team confidence as much as they lead to big recruiting classes. For others, stealing a win in the team’s most difficult game can increase the chances of a double-digit win season.

Let’s look at the game each Big 12 team should have circled for the 2023 season.

Is the Big 12 schedule stacked against Texas in 2023?

What disadvantage does facing K-State, Texas Tech and Baylor pose to Texas in 2023?

Earlier we shared nine potential Big 12 championship contenders for the 2023 season. The Texas Longhorns will face most of them. Head coach Steve Sarkisian and company will host Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas, and BYU while traveling to face Baylor and TCU on the road.

The Longhorns’ Red River rival will not face Tech, K-State or Baylor this year. As to why Kansas State will face Texas over its top rival in Oklahoma, we may never know. Instead the Sooners will face what those who cover the team call perhaps the weakest Oklahoma schedule they can remember. Why is that important? Because that’s the primary talking point as to why some are predicting an Oklahoma-Kansas State Big 12 championship.

Let’s be clear about Big 12 hierarchy. Kansas State and Texas appear to be the clear top two teams with Oklahoma and Tech checking in just behind. But again, the schedule sets up for the Sooners to secure a conference title spot. Meanwhile it could be that Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor and TCU among others will play a game of musical chairs for the final spot.

On the flip side, Texas will have opportunities to win head-to-head matchups vs. nearly every other conference contender. It could be an advantage as much as it is a disadvantage.

The reality of the situation is, if Oklahoma has not truly turned the corner as a program it won’t reach the Big 12 championship. If Texas has finally put everything together it will make the conference title game. Both teams will control their own destiny in 2023.

Picking the most underrated Big 12 games of the 2023 season

We look at some of the most underrated Big 12 games in the 2023 season.

The 2023 football season already has plenty of intrigue. That’s certainly the case in the Big 12 conference. Continue reading “Picking the most underrated Big 12 games of the 2023 season”

Combined Big 12 football predictions have Texas as the 2023 favorite

We combine three Big 12 standings predictions to see where Texas lands.

There’s strength in numbers. That phrase is true in multiple facets of life, but certainly in forming informed opinions in college football. Continue reading “Combined Big 12 football predictions have Texas as the 2023 favorite”