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A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 10 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 10.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
Sometimes the best thing to do when making prop bets is to go against the grain. So, this week, we do just that – we go against one of the top quarterbacks and the league’s most prolific fantasy scorer not hitting their numbers, a dynamic yet underachieving running back having his best game in a month, a running back who needs just seven yards to hit the Over, and midlevel tight end scoring a touchdown.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
The five smartest wagers to take to the pay window for Week 10.
The second half of the 2023 season games began Thursday with the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears – not a matchup the NFL was particularly proud of, but it was on the schedule.
As the stretch run begins, this week’s picks spread across the board – a game to go Over, a game to stay Under, a road favorite taking care of business, the smallest home favorite making a stand, and the most under-the-radar Super Bowl favorite continuing to hand out beatings.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
A league-wide view into the best wagers to make for NFL Week 10 action.
In Week 1, every NFL team had a plan and much of which revolved around the quarterback. But 2023 has been a strange animal, and players not expected to be starters have become them at an alarming rate.
Nine weeks into the 2023 season, the list of starting quarterbacks includes Joshua Dobbs, Clayton Tune, Taylor Heinicke, Andy Dalton, Tyson Bagent, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker, Brett Rypien, Brian Hoyer, Aidan O’Connell, Jaren Hall, Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito. This list doesn’t include four highly touted rookies, who have started part of all of the season, or Jordan Love, who was handed the starting job after the Green Bay Packers traded Aaron Rodgers.
We’re only halfway through the season and the carnage at QB has been pronounced.
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These teams have combined for just three wins, which is why the Bears are small home favorites (2.5 points at -115 Panthers, -105 Bears). Carolina has been competitive at home but has been crushed on the road, losing by 14, 10, 18 and 21 points. It won’t be a blowout, but the Bears should have enough to cover vs. an injury-ravaged defense. Take the Bears and lay 2.5 points (-105).
The Patriots have been awful, because they average allowing their opponent to have the ball for seven more minutes a game. The Colts are a slight road favorite (1.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Patriots have been brutal and nondescript on both sides of the ball, and I’m giving up on them. Take the Colts and lay 1.5 points (-110).
The Bengals are on a roll after winning four straight games, including beating playoff favorites Seattle, San Francisco and Buffalo. None of those games went past this Over/Under (47.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Houston has showed a lot of improvement, but the only way this games hits the over will require a shootout, which is unlikely. Take Under 47.5 points (-110).
The Vikings have won four straight but remain home underdogs (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Saints have been erratic, but have won their last two games and their last three wins have been by 34, 11 and 7 points. The Vikings are improved on defense, but the Saints have the weapons to do damage. Take the Saints and lay 2.5 points (-110).
The Packers broke a four-game losing streak last week, but they’re still brutal and have been outscored 91-36 in the first half this season. The Steelers are a small favorite (3 points at +100 Packers, -120 Steelers). The Steelers have been outgained by almost 100 yards a game but find ways to win and will do it again against a rebuilding Packers team. Take the Steelers and lay 3 points (-120).
The Buccaneers are the smallest of favorites (1 point at -115 Titans, -105 Buccaneers). The Buccaneers have lost four straight, but all of them have been close games they could have won. The key here is that Tennessee is 0-4 on the road and hasn’t scored more than 16 points in any of them. That should play in the Bucs’ favor. Take the Buccaneers and lay 1 point (-105).
Despite three straight losses, the 49ers are road favorites (3 points at -110 for the 49ers and Jaguars). San Francisco has scored 17 points in each of its last three games. The Jaguars have won five straight games and, while the 49ers have the deeper roster, the Jaguars don’t deserve to be a home underdog at 6-2. Take the Jaguars plus 3 points (-110).
The Ravens have been hammering opponents, which explains being a big home favorite (6 points at -110 for both teams). Baltimore is hitting on all cylinders, outscoring its opponents 106-33 in the last three games. In their first meeting, the Ravens won 28-3 and a blowout win is possible in this one, too. Take the Ravens and lay 6 points (-110).
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Kyler Murray is back, so the Over/Under is higher than expected (44 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The Cardinals are 1-8 and have scored just 53 points in their last four games. In four road games this season, the Falcons have scored just 52 points. Too many things add up to this being a low-scoring contest. Take Under 44 points (-110).
The Chargers have won two straight to get back to .500, but the Lions are road favorites (3 points at -110 for both). Both teams are capable of putting up big points, but the Lions are coming off their bye week and are looking to cement their position as one of the top NFC teams. Take the Lions and lay 3 points (-110).
The Giants are massive 16.5-point underdogs, but the Over/Under is the bet here (38.5 points at -110 for both). In their last seven games, the Giants have scored just 70 points and were shut out 40-0 in their first meeting with the Cowboys. Dallas should roll in this one and keep the Giants’ score extremely low. Take Under 38.5 points (-110).
The Over/Under here is a little high (45.5 points at -110 for both), but Washington has scored 20 or more points in seven of nine games, and the Seahawks have scored 20 or more in five of their last seven. But Seattle has hit under this number in each of the last five games, and Washington has hit under this point threshold in three of the last four. Take Under 45.5 points (-110).
The Over/Under is the lowest of the week (36 points at -110 for both). This comes despite the Raiders hitting over this number in each of their last four games, while the Jets have been under in their last three games (including two wins). It may take a defensive/special teams TD to go Over, but this point is just too low. Take Over 36 points (-110).
Denver has won two straight games, and Buffalo has been erratic, losing three of its last five games. But, the Bills remain a big favorite (7.5 points at -110 for both). The Bills are 4-1 at home and don’t struggle there as they do on the road. Look for the Bills to play up-tempo and get back to what they do best. Take the Bills and lay 7.5 points (-110).
Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
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Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
Your comprehensive Week 10 betting guide.
Coming off a crazy week where underdogs were running strong, at face value there weren’t a ton of games viewed as must-see matchups, until the heavy favorites lost. This week is a different story. There are plenty of games with playoff implications. Cleveland and New England meet with both at 5-4 looking for a wild card spot, Atlanta holds the last wild card in the NFC at the moment as the Falcons travel to Dallas. The Sunday night game could be the most important game for the Raiders in years as they play host to Kansas City with a chance to drop the Chiefs to 0-2 in the division and a dismal 1-5 in the AFC, which won’t leave them many (if any) tie-breaker edges.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Nov. 10, at 7:45 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
The Dolphins snapped a seven-game losing streak last week, only because they were playing Houston. The Ravens are a heavy favorite at 7.5 points (Ravens -103, Dolphins -117). The Dolphins simply don’t have the talent on either side of the ball to compete with Baltimore. The only time Lamar Jackson played Miami, he won 59-10. I don’t think they’ll repeat that, but a butt-kicking should be coming. Take the Ravens and lay the 7.5 points (-103).
The Colts have been pretty easy to predict this season – they lose to teams that have a 2021 playoff pedigree and have beaten every team that has no shot. The four Colts wins this season have come by 10, 28, 12 and 15 points. When they’re on, they tend to pile. The Colts are 9.5-point favorites (Jaguars +100, Colts -120). It’s a little high, but history tells us if the Colts win, they win big. Take the Colts and lay the 9.5 points (-120).
The Over/Under on this game is just 44.5 points (Over -112, Under -108). That is a little surprising, because New England has hit over that number in four of its last five games and the Browns have gone over 44.5 in three of their four road games. This may turn out to be a defensive battle, but 45 isn’t a lot of points to hit. Take the Over (-112).
The Steelers are a hard team to project, because they look great one week and like hot garbage the next. The Lions are awful and remain the only team without a win this season. Heading into Pittsburgh doesn’t seem like a recipe to end that streak. The Steelers are a 7.5-point favorite (Lions -108, Steelers -112), which is a point more than I would prefer, but there’s no way I’m jumping on the Lions’ bandwagon unless I’m given 10. Take the Steelers and lay the 7.5 points.
The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars and will be looking to pummel somebody. However, the Jets always seem to keep the games low scoring. The Over/Under is 47.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). The Under works for me in two ways: If the Bills dominate, the Jets will struggle to score 10 points, requiring 38 from Buffalo. If the game is close, it will be low scoring. The last four meetings between the teams have all gone under this number (three by 14 points or more), suggesting an ugly win for the Bills. Take the Under (-112).
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The Buccaneers are coming off their bye week and Washington has lost four straight games – three by 11 points or more. This has all the making of a classic beating that a defending champ drops on a lesser team. The Bucs are 8.5-point favorites (Buccaneers -112, WFT -108). I would have have expected this number to be double digits, because this should be a sound thumping in the offing. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 8.5 points (-112).
Both teams have solid defenses and both offenses are without the players who made them run at full throttle – Jameis Winston and Derrick Henry. The defenses should be able to take away much of what the opposing offenses are trying to do, which explains why the Over/Under is so low (44.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). However, it’s not low enough. Take the Under (-108).
Atlanta has won three of its last four games as well as its last three road games, which can’t be dismissed. The Cowboys are coming off a humbling loss to Denver in which the Broncos opened a 30-0 lead before allowing garbage time points. The number I like hear is the Over/Under of 54.5 points (Over -112, Under -108). Both offenses are pass-heavy, which leads not only to points when succeeding but stopping the clock when struggling. This is the highest Over/Under on the board this week, but it’s that way for a reason. Take the Over (-112).
The Cardinals proved last week that they could win without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins against a better team (the 49ers) than the Panthers. The Cardinals are favored by 10.5 points (Panthers -117, Cardinals -103). While the oddsmakers are daring people to take the Cardinals at a near-even return on investment, six of Arizona’s wins have been by 11 or more points – much less playing a team at home that has lost five of their last six games. Take the Cardinals and lay the 10.5 points (-103).
This is a tough one because, not for last-minute failures against the Bengals, Cardinals and Ravens (all on the road), Minnesota could easily be 5-3 or 6-2. However, the Vikings are 3-5 and are what they are. The key to this game is that the Vikings and Chargers are at the bottom of the NFL in run defense, and both teams have quarterbacks that take advantage through the air of teams forced to commit to the box and bite on play-action. The Over/Under is pretty stiff at 53.5 points (Over -105, Under -115). But, Dalvin Cook could run for 150 yards, Austin Ekeler could run for a 100 and Kirk Cousins and Justin Herbert could combine for six TD passes throwing into single coverage. Minnesota has hit over this number in every road game since Week 1. Take the Over (-105).
Aaron Rodgers likely is back after missing a game due to COVID. Russell Wilson is back for the first time since a finger injury ended his career games-started streak. Both come into this game with something to prove as their teams have had their struggles with their backup QBs. The Over/Under is 49.5 points (Over -105, Under -112). That number lends itself to the belief that the Under is the play. But, if either Rodgers or Wilson is lights out, it could hit this number. If both are on fire, it gets blown away. Take the Over (-105).
The Eagles have a defensive style that is oppressive when it works, hideous when it doesn’t – single coverage across the board receivers. The Over/Under is this game is 45.5 points (-110 for both the Over and Under). The Eagles have topped that number in six of their last seven games – having 50 or more points scored in all six. Denver can do enough damage to cover their end, and the Eagles will keep throwing until it works. Take the Over (-110).
The Chiefs have been struggling all season to play a perfect game. The offense has been heinous for a month. The Raiders have a chance to win the biggest game of the last few years for the franchise. It could be planting the flag for the rest of the AFC West. Because the Chiefs are involved, the Over/Under is high at 51.5 points (Over -112, Under -108). This one is going to be a game where it’s acknowledged that defensive players get paid, too. It will get close, but not enough. Take the Under (-108).
The Rams were exposed by the Titans, even without Derrick Henry, but that bump in the road gets rectified here. The 49ers are 0-4 at home, because they’ve been up against a better team every time. The Rams are better team focused on not dropping two in a row. That Rams are only favored by 3.5 points (Rams -115, 49ers -105). That’s not enough for a team with some revenge on its mind. Take the Rams and lay the 3.5 points (-115).
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