Coming off a crazy week where underdogs were running strong, at face value there weren’t a ton of games viewed as must-see matchups, until the heavy favorites lost. This week is a different story. There are plenty of games with playoff implications. Cleveland and New England meet with both at 5-4 looking for a wild card spot, Atlanta holds the last wild card in the NFC at the moment as the Falcons travel to Dallas. The Sunday night game could be the most important game for the Raiders in years as they play host to Kansas City with a chance to drop the Chiefs to 0-2 in the division and a dismal 1-5 in the AFC, which won’t leave them many (if any) tie-breaker edges.
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NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 10
Baltimore Ravens (-360) at Miami Dolphins (+270)
The Dolphins snapped a seven-game losing streak last week, only because they were playing Houston. The Ravens are a heavy favorite at 7.5 points (Ravens -103, Dolphins -117). The Dolphins simply don’t have the talent on either side of the ball to compete with Baltimore. The only time Lamar Jackson played Miami, he won 59-10. I don’t think they’ll repeat that, but a butt-kicking should be coming. Take the Ravens and lay the 7.5 points (-103).
Jacksonville Jaguars (+370) at Indianapolis Colts (-520)
The Colts have been pretty easy to predict this season – they lose to teams that have a 2021 playoff pedigree and have beaten every team that has no shot. The four Colts wins this season have come by 10, 28, 12 and 15 points. When they’re on, they tend to pile. The Colts are 9.5-point favorites (Jaguars +100, Colts -120). It’s a little high, but history tells us if the Colts win, they win big. Take the Colts and lay the 9.5 points (-120).
Cleveland Browns (+102) at New England Patriots (-125)
The Over/Under on this game is just 44.5 points (Over -112, Under -108). That is a little surprising, because New England has hit over that number in four of its last five games and the Browns have gone over 44.5 in three of their four road games. This may turn out to be a defensive battle, but 45 isn’t a lot of points to hit. Take the Over (-112).
Detroit Lions (+300) at Pittsburgh (-400)
The Steelers are a hard team to project, because they look great one week and like hot garbage the next. The Lions are awful and remain the only team without a win this season. Heading into Pittsburgh doesn’t seem like a recipe to end that streak. The Steelers are a 7.5-point favorite (Lions -108, Steelers -112), which is a point more than I would prefer, but there’s no way I’m jumping on the Lions’ bandwagon unless I’m given 10. Take the Steelers and lay the 7.5 points.
Buffalo Bills (-750) and New York Jets (+500)
The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars and will be looking to pummel somebody. However, the Jets always seem to keep the games low scoring. The Over/Under is 47.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). The Under works for me in two ways: If the Bills dominate, the Jets will struggle to score 10 points, requiring 38 from Buffalo. If the game is close, it will be low scoring. The last four meetings between the teams have all gone under this number (three by 14 points or more), suggesting an ugly win for the Bills. Take the Under (-112).
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-420) at Washington Football Team (+320)
The Buccaneers are coming off their bye week and Washington has lost four straight games – three by 11 points or more. This has all the making of a classic beating that a defending champ drops on a lesser team. The Bucs are 8.5-point favorites (Buccaneers -112, WFT -108). I would have have expected this number to be double digits, because this should be a sound thumping in the offing. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 8.5 points (-112).
New Orleans Saints (+122) at Tennessee Titans (-150)
Both teams have solid defenses and both offenses are without the players who made them run at full throttle – Jameis Winston and Derrick Henry. The defenses should be able to take away much of what the opposing offenses are trying to do, which explains why the Over/Under is so low (44.5 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). However, it’s not low enough. Take the Under (-108).
Atlanta Falcons (+310) at Dallas Cowboys (-410)
Atlanta has won three of its last four games as well as its last three road games, which can’t be dismissed. The Cowboys are coming off a humbling loss to Denver in which the Broncos opened a 30-0 lead before allowing garbage time points. The number I like hear is the Over/Under of 54.5 points (Over -112, Under -108). Both offenses are pass-heavy, which leads not only to points when succeeding but stopping the clock when struggling. This is the highest Over/Under on the board this week, but it’s that way for a reason. Take the Over (-112).
Carolina Panthers (+400) at Arizona Cardinals (-550)
The Cardinals proved last week that they could win without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins against a better team (the 49ers) than the Panthers. The Cardinals are favored by 10.5 points (Panthers -117, Cardinals -103). While the oddsmakers are daring people to take the Cardinals at a near-even return on investment, six of Arizona’s wins have been by 11 or more points – much less playing a team at home that has lost five of their last six games. Take the Cardinals and lay the 10.5 points (-103).
Minnesota Vikings (+135) at Los Angeles Chargers (-170)
This is a tough one because, not for last-minute failures against the Bengals, Cardinals and Ravens (all on the road), Minnesota could easily be 5-3 or 6-2. However, the Vikings are 3-5 and are what they are. The key to this game is that the Vikings and Chargers are at the bottom of the NFL in run defense, and both teams have quarterbacks that take advantage through the air of teams forced to commit to the box and bite on play-action. The Over/Under is pretty stiff at 53.5 points (Over -105, Under -115). But, Dalvin Cook could run for 150 yards, Austin Ekeler could run for a 100 and Kirk Cousins and Justin Herbert could combine for six TD passes throwing into single coverage. Minnesota has hit over this number in every road game since Week 1. Take the Over (-105).
Seattle Seahawks (+145) at Green Bay Packers (-180)
Aaron Rodgers likely is back after missing a game due to COVID. Russell Wilson is back for the first time since a finger injury ended his career games-started streak. Both come into this game with something to prove as their teams have had their struggles with their backup QBs. The Over/Under is 49.5 points (Over -105, Under -112). That number lends itself to the belief that the Under is the play. But, if either Rodgers or Wilson is lights out, it could hit this number. If both are on fire, it gets blown away. Take the Over (-105).
Philadelphia Eagles (+125) and Denver Broncos (-155)
The Eagles have a defensive style that is oppressive when it works, hideous when it doesn’t – single coverage across the board receivers. The Over/Under is this game is 45.5 points (-110 for both the Over and Under). The Eagles have topped that number in six of their last seven games – having 50 or more points scored in all six. Denver can do enough damage to cover their end, and the Eagles will keep throwing until it works. Take the Over (-110).
Kansas City Chiefs (-145) at Las Vegas Raiders (+120)
The Chiefs have been struggling all season to play a perfect game. The offense has been heinous for a month. The Raiders have a chance to win the biggest game of the last few years for the franchise. It could be planting the flag for the rest of the AFC West. Because the Chiefs are involved, the Over/Under is high at 51.5 points (Over -112, Under -108). This one is going to be a game where it’s acknowledged that defensive players get paid, too. It will get close, but not enough. Take the Under (-108).
Los Angeles Rams (-200) at San Francisco 49ers (+160)
The Rams were exposed by the Titans, even without Derrick Henry, but that bump in the road gets rectified here. The 49ers are 0-4 at home, because they’ve been up against a better team every time. The Rams are better team focused on not dropping two in a row. That Rams are only favored by 3.5 points (Rams -115, 49ers -105). That’s not enough for a team with some revenge on its mind. Take the Rams and lay the 3.5 points (-115).
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