Basketball Power Index – Page 3

Alabama’s tournament chances based on ESPN’s BPI

ESPN’s BPI doesn’t see the Tide as much of a threat to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Alabama has made the trip to San Diego in preparation for its round of 64 matchup with either Rutgers or Notre Dame, who will play on Wednesday night in Dayton.

While Nate Oats and the Tide await their opponent, let’s take a look at what ESPN’s Basketball Power Index thinks about Alabama’s tournament chances.

According to BPI, the Crimson Tide has a 67.6% chance of advancing past the first round but only a 21.1% chance of advancing past round two. The Tide’s chances of advancing deeper into the tournament drop below 10% and Alabama has less than a 1% chance of reaching the final four and winning a national championship.

We will have to wait and see if the Crimson Tide can become overachievers and make a deep run in the tournament. With this year’s version of ‘Bama hoops, it’s hard to tell.

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Auburn’s tournament win probability per the Basketball Power Index

What the metrics are saying about Auburn’s chances in March Madness.

In just over 48 hours the Auburn Tigers will be back on the hardwood looking to erase the memory of their painful loss in the SEC Tournament.

The No. 1 seed was quickly bounced by the Texas A&M Aggies after the Tigers were ice cold from the floor in the first half. They made it interesting late thanks to the play of Wendell Green Jr and Jabari Smith, but it was all for not.

That game doesn’t matter now, but bad losses can linger into the next game. On Friday they will look to start their journey as they look for six-straight wins to secure the NCAA national championship. ESPN recently released their win probabilities for the March Madness tournament. Here is how it all shakes out for War Eagle.

Basketball Power Index Probability

Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite Eight	Final Four	Champ Game	Champs
Probability	93.5%	76.5%	51.3%	26.7%	11.7%	4.9%
Ranking	No. 11	No. 7	No. 3	No. 5	No. 8	No. 8

Based on the numbers from the BPI, it is basically a coin flip for the Auburn men’s basketball team to make it to the Elite Eight. Their path to the Final Four would likely include wins over USC in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet 16, and Kansas in the Elite Eight. BPI has their chances at slightly better than a one in four shot.

With the third-best win probability, the computers clearly favor the Tigers to get past the likely matchup with the Badgers in the Sweet 16. To do so, they will need to find a way to limit the damage from Wisconsin guard Johnny Davis. He is averaging 19.7 points and 8.2 rebounds on a nightly basis.

Auburn will be back on the court on Friday as they look to take down in-state foe Jacksonville State in the Round of 64. Under Bruce Pearl, Auburn has made it out of the first round on both occasions. The Tigers could go three-for-three this year.

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Updated look at Auburn’s win probability over the final four games

Breaking down win probability over the final four games.

Yes, the loss against the Florida Gators hurt but given that it was their third loss of the season, it isn’t all doom and gloom for Auburn men’s basketball. Head coach Bruce Pearl understands that there is ample work still to be done before the NCAA Tournament arrives.

Florida played well, Pearl said. “Especially in the second half, so give Florida all the credit for us not playing well.”

The team committed 17 turnovers that led to nine points for the Gators. In a one-point loss, that means everything. In their two losses over the last four games, the sloppy play has led to losses by a combined five points. The biggest question mark was the final play that was drawn up by Pearl.

“I probably should’ve called timeout once I saw Florida back off,” Pearl said “They kept everything in front.”

It was a teaching moment for the team and a moment of reflection for the head coach. However, the team must shift focus to the final four games instead of dwelling on the loss.

With just four games remaining, two at Auburn Arena, we have the updated win probability per the Basketball Power Index.

Win Probability Breakdown

Feb. 23 vs Ole Miss Rebels: 93.8%
Feb. 25 at Tennessee Vols: 29.5%
Mar. 2 at Mississippi State Bulldogs: 57.7%
Mar. 5 vs South Carolina Gamecocks: 92.7%

Based on the win probabilities Auburn would finish with a record of 26-4 in the regular season ahead of the SEC tournament. They currently hold a one-game lead over Kentucky but due to head-to-head, it is actually a two-game lead.

If the season ended today, Auburn would play the winner of Mississippi State and South Carolina on Mar. 10 in the SEC tournament.

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Gators tumbling in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index after loss to Texas A&M

The Gators fell eight spots but remain in the top 40 of the latest BPI update after losing to the Aggies.

Florida’s season is on thin ice after a loss on Tuesday night that it couldn’t afford. Facing the Texas A&M Aggies on the road, the Gators found themselves down big early in the first half.

They eventually fought back and had a chance to win at the end with the last shot, but they couldn’t convert. UF missed an opportunity for what would have been (at least, temporarily) a Quadrant 1 win away from home against a team that had lost its last eight games.

After that disappointing effort, Florida saw a sizable drop in the latest Basketball Power Index from ESPN. It now ranks 37th, an eight-spot drop. That’s still higher than the NET, though, in which the Gators fell all the way to No. 54 after the loss.

Now, things are dire for UF. It is running out of chances to bolster its resume unless it can pull off a monumental upset against Auburn or Kentucky, and that resume still needs a lot of work. Though BPI ranks Florida No. 37, its resume ranks just 60th among Division I teams.

There will be chances, though. Largely due to those aforementioned games, UF ranks 26th in terms of remaining strength of schedule. But if it can’t upset the Tigers or the Wildcats, a home game against No. 21 Arkansas may be this team’s best and only hope for a convincing win.

Even that may not be enough. Florida is currently considered among the Next Four Out by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, and it could take a lot of work to crawl back into the projected field. It seems like coach Mike White‘s squad could be on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since his first season in 2015-16.

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Here’s where Florida stands at the end of January in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index

Florida’s ranking in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index update might surprise you given its 13-8 record heading into February.

Florida basketball closed out January with a comeback win over Oklahoma State, but the month has been anything but kind to the Gators.

In the second half of the month, Florida has lost both of its centers and is now being forced into playing small ball. Colin Castleton has missed every game since the Jan. 15 contest against South Carolina, and Jason Jitoboh is out for the season after surgery on his eye.

Despite these losses and two on-the-court losses to Ole Miss and Tennessee, Florida is still ranked No. 28 on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index as January draws to a close. The Orange and Blue held the same spot in our mid-January update.

Since then, Florida has strung together a 3-2 record to bring the overall record to 13-8. One of those wins was over Mississippi State, which is another Southeastern Conference team that has spent much of the season on the bubble. If things are still close when it comes time to decide who’s in the NCAA Tournament and who isn’t, that win could prove to be huge.

Moving forward, the Gators are back to conference play for the first half of February. The month opens with reasonable matchups against Missouri, Ole Miss and Georgia before a road game at Kentucky. Texas A&M could also be tricky on the road if Castleton hasn’t returned by then.

Florida isn’t going to be a top 25 team anytime soon, but its BPI ranking does show that there’s some talent in Gainesville. Even without Castleton, the Gators led Tennessee by eight at the half. There’s still time for Mike White‘s team to make a push, but it’ll require some impressive numbers in February.

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Arkansas has 73 percent chance to beat Vanderbilt

ESPN’s math says Arkansas should be in good shape against Vanderbilt on Tuesday night.

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Not often are many second conference games of the year are considered must-win. Arkansas’ against Vanderbilt on Tuesday night is about as close as they get.

The Razorbacks (10-3, 0-1) have lost three of their last four games and fallen from No. 4 seed in ESPN’s Bracketology to ‘Next Four Out’ in the same. A loss to Vanderbilt, at home no less, could damage the Razorbacks chances beyond repair. Barring a few major upsets late in the season, anyway.

The good news for Arkansas is the data. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Hogs a 73.3% chance at victory when the teams tip Tuesday night. That same algorithm has Arkansas as the No. 47 team in the nation with the Commodores at No. 70.

KenPom.com’s rankings are similar. The basketball prognosticator has the Razorbacks as his No. 46 team and Vandy at No. 71.

It’s unclear whether ESPN’s BPI wining percentage calculates for the potential loss of guard JD Notae and forward Kamani Johnson. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman said Notae, the second leading scorer in the SEC is a game-time decision after being ill over break and Johnson is on a day-to-day status after being suspended ahead of the team’s SEC opener against Mississippi State.

Gators hoops enters new year top 25 in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index

The Gators remained in the top 25 despite an ugly month of December.

The Gators looked like they were off to the best start of the Mike White era just a few weeks ago. The team upset Florida State to end a seven-game losing streak to the in-state rival, and it followed that up with a buzzer-beater to take down Ohio State and win the Fort Myers Tip-Off.

But then, Florida lost to Oklahoma on the road and didn’t show up for a home game against a winless Texas Southern game, losing by 15 at the O’Dome. Then, UF couldn’t get the job done in Brooklyn against a struggling Maryland team with an interim coach.

The Gators closed out non-conference play on a high note with a blowout win over Stony Brook, and they enter their SEC slate at 9-3 but treading water. UF’s conference opener against Ole Miss was postponed due to COVID-19 issues within the program, and it will hope it’s able to play on Wednesday night at home against Alabama. Still, despite the relative inaction over the last two weeks, Florida still ranks No. 23 in the ESPN Basketball Power Index heading into the new year.

That still ranks behind six SEC teams in No. 4 Kentucky, No. 9 Tennessee, No. 11 LSU, No. 14 Auburn, No. 20 Mississippi State and No. 22 Alabama. UF’s next three scheduled games are against teams on that list in both Tigers teams and the Crimson Tide, so it has the opportunity to rise in these rankings considerably or fall quite a bit over the next two weeks.

Florida will need to get back to the way it was playing earlier in the season if it’s going to compete in an SEC that is as strong as it’s been in recent memory.

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Florida ranks highly in latest Basketball Power Index from ESPN

ESPN’s BPI is higher on the Gators than the latest NET Rankings.

ESPN’s analytics-based power rankings were high on Florida’s football team all season despite its struggles, so I suppose it stands to reason that its basketball team would, as well. The Gators sit at 8-3, and after a hot start to the season, the team dropped games against Oklahoma, Texas Southern and Maryland, which has sent its ranking plummeting in the NET Rankings.

But ESPN’s Basketball Power Index is warmer on UF. It ranks 24th, significantly higher than its current No. 59 spot in the NET. It’s being weighed down by a strength of schedule that isn’t great, coming in at just 141st. But its strength of record is better due to victories over Florida State and Ohio State, standing 67th among Division I teams.

It’s been a frustrating couple of weeks for this team that included one of the worst losses in program history when it fell by 15 points at home against a previously winless SWAC team in Texas Southern. That was a Quadrant 4 loss at the time, but the Tigers have moved up enough in the NET for that loss to now be considered Quadrant 3. They are now 2-7 and rank 136th in the BPI.

Despite Florida doing damage to its own resume, the team is still in a solid position heading into conference play. The opening stretch in the SEC is brutal, and the Gators will play Quadrant 1 games in three of their first four matchups. UF could either rise considerably a drop off entirely depending on how it fares in those games.

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Gators crack top 15 in latest Basketball Power Index from ESPN

UF ranks No. 15 in the BPI after Oklahoma loss

Florida’s men’s basketball team suffered its first setback this season on Wednesday night, falling on the road to a good Oklahoma team 74-67. In spite of that slipup, the Gators still sit at 6-1 on the young season. With the only remaining Quadrant 1 game in non-conference play coming against a Maryland team that has parted ways with head coach Mark Turgeon, taking a one-loss record heading into SEC play is a very strong possibility.

In spite of that loss, UF ranks No. 15 in the latest Basketball Power Index from ESPN, the fourth-highest ranked SEC team behind No. 6 Kentucky, No. 9 Tennessee and No. 11 LSU. The Gators have just the No. 111 strength of schedule, but their strength of record ranks No. 26.

Florida gets back in action on Monday night with Texas Southern coming to town, and North Florida is up after that on Wednesday night before the team travels to play the Terrapins in Brooklyn next Sunday.

The Gators saw an interruption to their momentum, but they still have the chance to have the best record in non-conference play during coach Mike White‘s tenure.

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Texas Basketball: Game by Game predictions with ESPN’s BPI

Using ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index), Longhorns Wire gives game by game predictions and final record for Texas basketball.

The Texas Longhorns men’s basketball team currently sits at 6-1 after their first seven games of the season. Shaka Smart led his team into the Maui Invitational that was held in North Carolina due to COVID-19. After defeated Davidson and Indiana, they would face the Tar Heels in the championship game. Matt Coleman delivered the heroics as they won with a buzzer-beating shot.

The Longhorns were supposed to play their first conference game of the season against Baylor this past weekend but it was postponed. The game is expected to be made up at some point in the season. No word on when that game will take place.

Their next game will take place in Austin as the Longhorns host the Oklahoma State Cowboys. We take a look at the game-by-game predictions using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.