Updated look at Auburn’s win probability over the final four games

Breaking down win probability over the final four games.

Yes, the loss against the Florida Gators hurt but given that it was their third loss of the season, it isn’t all doom and gloom for Auburn men’s basketball. Head coach Bruce Pearl understands that there is ample work still to be done before the NCAA Tournament arrives.

Florida played well, Pearl said. “Especially in the second half, so give Florida all the credit for us not playing well.”

The team committed 17 turnovers that led to nine points for the Gators. In a one-point loss, that means everything. In their two losses over the last four games, the sloppy play has led to losses by a combined five points. The biggest question mark was the final play that was drawn up by Pearl.

“I probably should’ve called timeout once I saw Florida back off,” Pearl said “They kept everything in front.”

It was a teaching moment for the team and a moment of reflection for the head coach. However, the team must shift focus to the final four games instead of dwelling on the loss.

With just four games remaining, two at Auburn Arena, we have the updated win probability per the Basketball Power Index.

Win Probability Breakdown

Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
  • Feb. 23 vs Ole Miss Rebels: 93.8%
  • Feb. 25 at Tennessee Vols: 29.5%
  • Mar. 2 at Mississippi State Bulldogs: 57.7%
  • Mar. 5 vs South Carolina Gamecocks: 92.7%

Based on the win probabilities Auburn would finish with a record of 26-4 in the regular season ahead of the SEC tournament. They currently hold a one-game lead over Kentucky but due to head-to-head, it is actually a two-game lead.

If the season ended today, Auburn would play the winner of Mississippi State and South Carolina on Mar. 10 in the SEC tournament.

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