Updated look at Auburn’s win probability over the final four games

Breaking down win probability over the final four games.

Yes, the loss against the Florida Gators hurt but given that it was their third loss of the season, it isn’t all doom and gloom for Auburn men’s basketball. Head coach Bruce Pearl understands that there is ample work still to be done before the NCAA Tournament arrives.

Florida played well, Pearl said. “Especially in the second half, so give Florida all the credit for us not playing well.”

The team committed 17 turnovers that led to nine points for the Gators. In a one-point loss, that means everything. In their two losses over the last four games, the sloppy play has led to losses by a combined five points. The biggest question mark was the final play that was drawn up by Pearl.

“I probably should’ve called timeout once I saw Florida back off,” Pearl said “They kept everything in front.”

It was a teaching moment for the team and a moment of reflection for the head coach. However, the team must shift focus to the final four games instead of dwelling on the loss.

With just four games remaining, two at Auburn Arena, we have the updated win probability per the Basketball Power Index.

Win Probability Breakdown

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  • Feb. 23 vs Ole Miss Rebels: 93.8%
  • Feb. 25 at Tennessee Vols: 29.5%
  • Mar. 2 at Mississippi State Bulldogs: 57.7%
  • Mar. 5 vs South Carolina Gamecocks: 92.7%

Based on the win probabilities Auburn would finish with a record of 26-4 in the regular season ahead of the SEC tournament. They currently hold a one-game lead over Kentucky but due to head-to-head, it is actually a two-game lead.

If the season ended today, Auburn would play the winner of Mississippi State and South Carolina on Mar. 10 in the SEC tournament.

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How to watch No. 2 Auburn men’s basketball vs Florida

Auburn is back on the road to face Florida.

Auburn men’s basketball team will return to action Saturday afternoon when they travel to Gainesville to take on the Florida Gators.

It will be the second time the teams play this season. Auburn won the first matchup 85-73 in Auburn Arena back on Jan. 8.

Auburn was led by K.D. Johnson, who scored 23 points. The Tigers had three others score in double figures as Jabari Smith (13), Jaylin Williams (14), and Wendell Green Jr. (13) also had good nights offensively.

The Gators were led by center Collin Castleton, who had 22 points and 10 rebounds. The battle between Castleton and Walker Kessler will have a major impact on this game.

Castleton easily won the first matchup as Kessler fouled out with six points, eight rebounds, and three blocks. A lot has changed since that first matchup and Kessler is clearly playing at a higher level.

Auburn has lost 13 straight games on the Gators home court but with a red-hot Smith and Kessler have a great chance to snap that streak.

Game details

  • Date: Saturday, Feb. 19
  • Location: Exatech Arena at Stephen C. O’Connell Center in Gainesville, Florida
  • Time: 1 p.m. CT
  • TV: ESPN
  • Radio: Auburn Sports Network
  • App: Watch ESPN
  • Live Stream: fuboTV (free trial)

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

Spread: Auburn (-4.5)

Over/Under: 138.5

Money Line: Auburn (-200) | Florida (+160)

Auburn vs Florida Prediction, College Basketball Game Preview

Auburn vs Florida prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch, lines, and why each team might – or might not – win on Saturday.

Auburn vs Florida prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch: Saturday, February 19


Auburn vs Florida How To Watch

Date: Saturday, February 19
Game Time: 2:00 ET
Venue: Exactech Arena at Stephen C. O’Connell Center, Gainesville, FL
How To Watch: ESPN
Record: Auburn (24-2), Florida (16-10)
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Auburn vs Florida Game Preview


Why Auburn Will Win

The offense is back.

Vanderbilt wasn’t going to beat Auburn, but it’s just good enough to have been a problem. Auburn came out and hung up 94 on the board with one of its best shooting games of the season, especially from the outside.

Florida tried to hang around with the Tigers back in early January, but it couldn’t hit enough threes and got hit hard on the boards. Last in the SEC in defensive rebounds, Auburn should be able to make up for a few problems here and there by hitting the offensive glass hard.

The Gators can’t afford to give up any second chance points, and it won’t be able to pick up the slack on the offensive end with threes – it takes them, but it doesn’t often make them.

However …

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Why Florida Will Win

Florida had a fouling problem in the first game, but Auburn ended up giving up more free throws.

The Tigers might be amazing at blocking shots, getting on the glass, and with the defense to clamp down for stretches, but it walks into the stadium with at least 15 fouls.

Florida might only hit 30% from three, but it knows how to get on the line and it’s good once it gets there. This might not be a high-powered Gator team, but it has to be able to attack and keep going right at the Tiger interior.

And …

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What’s Going To Happen

Auburn has been way shaky lately on the road.

It lost to Arkansas in overtime and snuck by Georgia and Missouri by a combined three points.

The shooting was there against Vanderbilt, but the offense has been in a tad bit of a rut lately. Florida should be able to keep the Tigers to around 40% or under from the field, but it’ll have its own problems scoring.

Auburn vs Florida Prediction, Lines

Auburn 69, Florida 65
Line: COMING, o/u: COMING
ATS Confidence out of 5: COMING

Must See Rating: 3

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