What does this week’s AP Poll suggest abut Alabama’s Playoff chances?
All of Alabama nation is still flying high from yesterday’s magical Iron Bowl victory over Auburn. Yet, the relief can’t last much longer as the season really starts next Saturday when the Crimson Tide take on the No. 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship.
The Bulldogs ride into Atlanta on a 29-game winning streak that has included the past two national championships. Beating the Dawgs will certainly be no easy task, but this Alabama team continues to rise to the occasion. While one might assume that the win against that Georgia team would be enough to get the Tide into the Playoffs, the Week 14 AP Poll suggests that the Crimson Tide still needs some help even with a win against Georgia.
After rattling off ten straight wins to end the regular season, Alabama still finds themselves sitting at No. 8 in the rankings with only one week to go. As things currently stand the top eight is as follows: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama. So, what is the Tide’s path to the Final Four?
A win against UGA would obviously be enough for Alabama to jump the Dawgs. Michigan has already eliminated the Buckeyes from the Playoff race so Alabama would jump OSU with the win. Washington and Oregon will face off in the Pac-12 title with the loser being eliminated from contention. If Florida State beats Louisville and Texas beats Oklahoma State we are very likely looking at 1. Michigan 2. Winner of Oregon/Washington 3. Florida State 4. Texas 5. Alabama.
Michigan and Florida State will 100% both be in the Playoffs if they win this weekend with undefeated resumes. I find it unlikely that Alabama will be able to jump Texas even with a win against UGA because the results on the field do have to matter even if it was Week 2.
So, the final spot will likely come down to Alabama vs. the winner of the Pac-12. If Washington wins the Pac-12 title they will finish the year an undefeated 13-0 and they’ll be in. If Oregon wins, they’ll have avenged their lone loss of the season making it tough to leave them out as well. Even though I think Alabama is clearly better than Texas, FSU or anyone in the Pac-12, I think they might be in a bad spot to jump anyone. Oregon, with no ranked wins prior to this weekend, being ranked higher than Alabama all season has never really made much sense to me and now it might really come back to haunt the Tide.
So, as Alabama fans we need ONE of three things to happen assuming Alabama wins. Louisville must beat Florida State, Iowa must beat Michigan or Oklahoma State must beat Texas. If I am being honest, I don’t love my chances with any of them but crazier things have happened.
IF, Alabama misses the Playoffs I think the College Football Playoff commitee has a major problem on their hands. Oregon’s out of conference schedule included Portland State, Texas Tech and Hawaii while Michigan played East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green. If you are Alabama, what’s the point of scheduling out of conference games like Texas if all that really matters is just a zero in the loss column?
I can also acknowlegde the SEC isn’t as strong as years past, but it’s still the best conference in the country. The SEC has more teams ranked than anyone else and that doesn’t even include teams like Tennessee and Texas A&M that would easily win divisions like the Big Ten West. How are we really going to leave the best conference in the country out of the Playoffs? Especially when Alabama will have been undefeated in that league with four wins against ranked opponents.
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