Tag: Analysis

James Hurst on why Erik McCoy is almost impossible to replace mid-game

Losing Erik McCoy early against the Eagles was almost a worst-case scenario. Former Saints offensive lineman James Hurst explains why:

The New Orleans Saints lost Erik McCoy shortly into their game with the Philadelphia Eagles, and the impact of his absence was felt early and often. His injury forced Lucas Patrick to move from left guard to center, with Olisaemeka Udoh stepping in. The entirety of the interior offensive line struggled, including right guard Cesar Ruiz. Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter proved too much for them to handle.

But the ramifications of McCoy’s absence went beyond those battles at the point of attack. Former Saints offensive lineman and current WDSU analyst James Hurst explained why this was the case. Hurst was a member of the team just last year, so he saw McCoy’s abilities first hand. And he says the Saints’ struggles go deeper than McCoy’s skills.

McCoy’s position is as important as his talent. Hurst relayed the importance of a quality center: “It’s really tough to lose a center in the middle of the game. He does so much with identifying the defense, communicating with the quarterback, setting the blocking schemes for the offensive line and tight ends.”

Losing McCoy in the midst of a game amplifies the impact because the player who fills in hasn’t gone through any of the week’s preparation. He’ll naturally be behind on much that contributes to the success of the offensive line. Patrick being a guard means he didn’t even get many second-team reps doing this.

So many other players are dependent on the center (both guards next to him, the quarterback receiving the snap, and everyone else he’s protecting in the backfield), which is why the position impacts the entire offensive line. This gives hope that some of the issues can be smoothed over with practice reps.

It’s like Hurst said at the end of his explanation, though. He added, “(McCoy is) a very, very good football player on top of that.” Those talents are just hard to replace. Hopefully McCoy can get back in the lineup sooner rather than later.

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Instant analysis after Bengals drop preseason game vs. Bears

Instant analysis after Bengals vs. Bears in preseason Week 2.

The Cincinnati Bengals didn’t play most of their starters during Saturday’s Week 2 preseason loss against the Chicago Bears.

But there were plenty of quick things to glean from the exhibition and some genuine surprises, too.

 

Quick Thoughts

  • Jermaine Burton Watch: After hardly cracking the fourth team in the first preseason game, Burton wasn’t out there with the twos to start this game. He did get a chance on returns (and bobbled a punt). It’s probably a combination of making the rookie prove himself and simply needing new faces back there after Chris Evans was lost for the season.
  • More big plays for the undrafted Maema Njongmeta. Feels like he’s a roster lock now.
  • “Starters” Dax Hill and DJ Turner played two drives and looked good. One has to think Hill has the edge on the No. 2 corner spot.
  • Kris Jenkins got his first sack. The second-rounder appears on the upswing after a rough debut.
  • Former undrafted Jaxson Kirkland was getting looks at left tackle. That’s something to watch majorly over the next week. The team essentially demoted Jackson Carman on Saturday, so that roster spot might be up for grabs.
  • Undrafted sleeper cornerback Lance Robinson seemed to suffer an injury while allowing a score, so it’s something to watch.
  • The punter battle didn’t see any conclusion. There’s a chance they look outside the team if Brad Robbins can’t get back healthy very quickly.

 

Key Stat

11 for 123: The number of penalties and yardage coughed up by the Bengals as a result of those flags. Super sloppy, even for the preseason.

 

Game Balls

WR Kwamie Lassiter II: He did what he could while fighting for a roster spot, catching five of his seven targets for 33 yards.

LB Maema Njongmeta: He paced the team in tackles deep into the fourth quarter and made his case for the final score.

 

Top Takeaway

Progress: There were some nice surprise from the team, like Kirkland getting a chance at a promotion. And while the Burton situation is a little strange right now, he’s getting the ball in his hands with a chance to prove himself, so better than nothing.

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Klint Kubiak may not be a slam-dunk OC hire for the Saints, but they lack options

Klint Kubiak may not be a slam-dunk offensive coordinator hire for the New Orleans Saints, but he could be the best candidate they can find:

Few fans expected the New Orleans Saints’ search for a new offensive coordinator to take so long, but it isn’t an easy process. And NFL-enforced anti-tampering rules are likely playing a factor. If the Saints hope to land someone coaching in Super Bowl LVIII — like Klint Kubiak or Brian Griese, both assistants with the San Francisco 49ers who have already met with them — they’ll have to wait until after the championship game to make a move.

Kubiak has the stronger resume of the pair. Griese only entered the coaching ranks in 2022. He did help guide the quarterbacks room through a lot of turmoil in his first year on the job with injuries sidelining Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, and he’s been a big influence on Brock Purdy’s development through two seasons. But he’s never called plays and there’s much more to the job of an offensive coordinator than coaching the quarterback, even if that is a critical task.

So why Kubiak? The San Francisco passing game coordinator has a lot of experience despite his young age (he’ll turn 37 in a few weeks) for a coach. He’s called plays before with the Minnesota Vikings (in 2021) and, briefly, the Denver Broncos (in 2022) after Nathaniel Hackett gave up that responsibility. He’s coached in the NFL since 2013, steadily climbing the ranks. Working under Kyle Shanahan on one of the league’s best offenses during the last year does make him an attractive candidate.

But here’s the catch. Hiring Kubiak (if that’s the direction the Saints are leaning) may not be a slam dunk. Two different teams have let him call plays and neither of they both chose to move on from him. He was jettisoned with the rest of the Vikings staff after Mike Zimmer was fired in Minnesota. When Hackett was dismissed in Denver, interim head coach Jerry Rosburg reassigned play calling duties from Kubiak and gave them to offensive coordinator Justin Outten. All three of them were let go once Sean Payton entered the building. If someone were being uncharitable, they’d suggest Kubiak would not have gotten this far if his father wasn’t an influential former head coach.

When he was calling plays for the Vikings in 2021, Kubiak’s offense ranked in the middle of the back in most areas: 14th in points scored, 12th in yards gained, 11th in passing yards and 9th in touchdown passes with the 17th-most rushing yards. Minnesota’s 25 points per game was a respectable scoring output. In 2022, though, the Broncos averaged 14.5 points per game before giving Kubiak the headset; he managed 16.8 points per game before they switched again. Denver scored 24 and 31 points in their final two games with Outten calling plays instead.

Some of it is on personnel. Some of it can be chalked up to the schedule and quality of opponents. There’s a big difference in Kubiak spending the offseason working with Kirk Cousins to learn how to best relay plays in to his quarterback versus being thrown into the role late in November with little prep time. But at the end of the day, mixed results are exactly what they look like.

Which means the Saints have to ask themselves an important question: is it worth waiting on Kubiak (or Griese, if they’re looking at him instead)? They aren’t the only team trying to hire a new play caller. If there are other candidates they value highly, waiting another week and a half to sit down with one of the 49ers assistants again could be costly. But Mickey Loomis prides himself on his patience. If he trusts Dennis Allen is zeroing in on the right candidate for the job, no amount of public pressure or complaints from anxious fans on social media is going to dissuade him. All we can do is wait and see how this plays out.

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2023 Minnesota Vikings by The Numbers

The 2023 season for the Minnesota Vikings was one that can’t be forgotten.

Since 2017, there have been 65 teams that have had a winning streak of five or more in a single season. Only ten failed to make the playoffs, including three from 2023: The Denver Broncos, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota’s run is a bit more impressive due to two of the wins being with a quarterback in Josh Dobbs, who was in the building for less than two weeks. Like the other two teams, however, the Vikings were victims of a crushing late-season collapse that took them out of the playoff race. 

Don’t let the ending take away from another memorable season for the Vikings.

What started as a simple quest for answers for the franchise’s future became an adventure for the ages, littered with twists and turns suitable for the Alex Rider series. While the ride ended disappointingly, the numbers from this season may have helped the front office to their answers after all.

To explain, we will split this season into four quarters and explain the numbers that coincide with each quarter to come to a conclusion for the future of the Vikings.

(All statistics are from Pro-Football-Reference via Stathead or rbsdm.com, unless otherwise stated.)

Bills offense made history in overtime loss to Eagles, but not in a good way

The #Bills did so well but still lost in a fashion no NFL team ever has:

The Buffalo Bills lost 37-34 in overtime to the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday afternoon. The Eagles have the best record in the NFL, currently sitting at 10-1, and so going toe-to-toe with a team having a phenomenal year should be a positive for Bills fans and staff alike.

The Bills offense kept up with the high-flying Eagles, who have the most yards of total offense this season. Buffalo generated 505 yards and had 10 third-down conversions in the game. By comparison, the Eagles generated 378 yards and only three third-down conversions.

Additionally, the Bills won the turnover battle in Philly. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts threw an interception apiece, and defensive end Greg Rousseau’s fumble recovery gave the Bills the advantage.

Usually when a team gains a lot of yards, converts on third down and wins the turnover battle, it doesn’t lose the game.

And since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, that had happened 39 times, most recently in 2021 between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals.

ESPN’s Ed Werder noted that the Bills were the first team in that span to lose in a game where it put up over 500 yards, converted at least 10 third downs and had a positive turnover margin:

And that won’t help Bills fans feel good about Sunday’s loss.

We did some digging to see some other games that fit this criteria, and some were close but missed a piece of the stat here or there:

  • Cincinnati Bengals tied Carolina Panthers 37-37 in 2014. Bengals had 10+ 3rd-down conversions and over 500 yards but lost the turnover battle.
  • Philadelphia Eagles lost to San Diego Chargers 33-30 in 2013. Eagles had 500+ yards and won the turnover battle, but only converted five 3rd downs.
  • Buffalo Bills lost to the Baltimore Ravens 37-34 (OT) in 2010. Led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills had 500+ yards of offense and 10+ 3rd downs, but lost the turnover battle as Fitzpatrick’s two interceptions were the difference. Both teams recovered multiple fumbles.

Some familiar teams in the last decade highlight that this can happen again, and another team is likely to do it soon.

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Eagles’ Jordan Mailata ‘couldn’t believe’ Bills coverage for Jalen Hurts winning TD

#Eagles’ Jordan Mailata ‘couldn’t believe’ #Bills coverage for Jalen Hurts winning TD:

The Buffalo Bills were left shocked by the Philadelphia Eagles’ game winning touchdown in overtime to win 37-34 in Week 12. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts took the snap and almost immediately took off running for the end zone from almost 20 yards out to win the game on a walk-off rushing touchdown.

And Bills fans will be wondering why the defense, who would naturally have a difficult time against a team with only one loss all season, would be in that coverage to allow the opposing quarterback the time and space to run into the end zone.

So too was Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata.

“[I] couldn’t believe the Bills gave [us] that look.” said Mailata to NFL Network’s national correspondent James Palmer following the contest.

What is the Eagles lineman referring to? NFL Next Gen Stats mapped Hurts win, which you can see here if you have recovered from Sunday’s difficult loss:

In that play, the Bills safety Micah Hyde is lined up on the left hashmark parallel with Hurts. Eagles running back D’Andre Swift, wearing No. 0, moves in motion to the right, and Hyde starts drifting toward Hurts right along with linebacker Terrel Bernard.

Since there is a one-on-one coverage on towards the left between Eagles receiver Devonta Smith and Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas, Hyde shifting over gave Hurts enough of a distance between them pre-snap to win the foot race.

Shifting over could be less damaging if Bernard fills that lane instead of shifting along with Hyde, or if linebacker Tyrel Dodson, who was tasked with blitzing Hurts, was able to close the gap created by Mailata and his left guard teammate Landon Dickerson quickly. That is the difficulty of playing an excellent team like the Eagles – mistakes compound into scores.

“Hurts made a number of plays with his feet … he got out a few times and made some trouble with his feet.” said Bills coach Sean McDermott after the game.

Mailata was the first to meet Eagles QB Hurts in the end zone to celebrate the winning touchdown with him.

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Stat shows depleted Bills defense unable to close games this season

Stat shows depleted #Bills defense unable to close games this season:

At the end of last season, the Buffalo Bills had a defense that many NFL teams feared. They had held opponents to the second-lowest points per game while securing 17 interceptions, generating 40 sacks, and forcing 11 fumbles. Buffalo’s defensive prowess helped propel the Bills to the No. 1 seed during the regular season.

Many fans and experts predicted Buffalo to continue to have an elite defense this year. However, injuries to many of their defensive stars have prevented their continued success.

Injuries across the defense, from defensive lineman to the secondary, have been rife with four players heading to the injured reserve list. Tre’Davious White in Week 4 was the start, quickly followed by Da’Quan Jones and 2022 All-Pro Matt Milano in Week 5 during their international game in London. A couple weeks later, Kaiir Elam joined his teammates on IR.

And while many defenders have stepped up into these roles, the performances have been noticeably different. Especially in the most difficult part of the game for defenders – near the end.

Now, the Bills defense is still creating takeaways (11 interceptions in 12 games, on pace with last year) and getting to opposing quarterbacks and forcing fumbles more. In fact, they already beat last year’s sack total and forced more fumbles before they reached their bye week, with five more games remaining.

But the Bills have comfortably won a handful games this season, including against the Raiders, Commanders, Dolphins, and Jets. And in those games, the Buffalo defense have generated turnovers in the air and on the ground while getting to the opposing quarterbacks several times.

It’s the games a team loses that usually show the defensive issues.

Currently, Buffalo is 6-6, and in their six games they have lost, their defensive has given up a lot of points.

Especially compared to last year’s Bills.. And especially at the end of games.

The 2023 Bills, in the fourth quarter and overtime, have given up more points that the 2022 Bills did in the entire season, according to independent Buffalo journalist Jerry Sullivan. And no matter how many turnovers a defense generates throughout the game, if they cannot stop offenses from scoring at the end of games then they will have trouble winning. Especially when they have been in 7 one-score games this season, winning only 2 of those games against below average teams (4-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 4-8 New York Giants).

The hope will be that Bills head coach Sean McDermott, who took over defensive coordinator duties during the offseason, will be able to use the upcoming bye week to address this issue:

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Jordan Addison steps up against the best competition

One stat shows Jordan Addison’s impact on the offense as he continues to grow in Minnesota’s offense

NFL data analyst Scott Kacsmar reported a stat about two of the top defenses in the league and one rookie wide receiver’s success against them both.

Kacsmar illustrated that the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers have allowed only one touchdown longer than 27 yards on the year, and they were to one man: Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison.

Since being drafted 23rd overall in this year’s draft, Addison has made extraordinary plays befitting of a first-round Vikings receiver. 

Exceptional body control. Deceptively smooth route-running ability. A flair for the spectacular catch (Addison’s name on Twitter is @ESPN_Jordan for a reason).

Addison has been everything that the Vikings have needed in his first year. A reliable yet explosive Robin to Justin Jefferson’s Batman, and when Jefferson went down with his hamstring injury, Addison replaced him just as Batman had always wanted Robin to do. 

With Jefferson returning, Addison will return to his number-two role, and the 24-year-old All-Pro will take the spotlight again. 

But Addison’s propensity for the explosives, especially down the field, will be the reason that this Minnesota offense continues to be a three-level threat on offense, even without Kirk Cousins in the lineup.

With the return of Batman looming, it’s easy to toss aside the impact that Robin has had. Even after a disappointing performance against Chicago, Addison has been an exceptional addition to this Minnesota offense.

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Updated look at Bills’ playoff odds in sportsbooks

Updated look at #Bills’ playoff odds in sportsbooks:

The Buffalo Bills went toe-to-toe with NFL’s best team this season, the Philadelphia Eagles. Even though they fought well they ultimately lost in overtime to a Jalen Hurts touchdown.

The Eagles won 37-34 in overtime.

Buffalo is now an even 6-6 heading into its Week 13 bye, and their record truly indicates their performances throughout the 2023 NFL season. And Bills fans are left with the week off to think whether their team is even likely to make the playoffs.

But for those still Bill-eving and interested in placing wagers, it could be profitable move to bet on Buffalo at this point. Odds are now much longer for the team to make the playoffs.

But first, a look at the analytics:

New York Times Playoff Simulator

After Sunday’s loss, the New York Times playoff simulator has drastically reduced the Bills’ chance of making the playoffs. Buffalo’s current odds of making the playoffs is at 14 percent.

Unlike Bills games earlier this season, the offense played fantastic football, perhaps due to changes in the staff supporting quarterback Josh Allen. And when playing against the Eagles, who have only lost one game this season, fantastic football needs to be played by everyone. The Bills defense, naturally, had their work cut out for them and tried their best to stop perhaps the strongest team in the league.

The New York Times playoff simulator works by using an Elo rating system combined with information from betting markets to estimate every NFL teams’ chance of winning. The Elo rating system calculates the relative skill of teams within the NFL. The simulator estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often all NFL teams would make the playoffs.

According to the simulations, the Eagles have a greater than 68 percent chance to be the No. 1 seed. That’s how good the team that the Bills faced. And, had the Bills won the game against the Eagles, they would have had a 43 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Instead, the Bills currently have a 14 percent chance. With a fractional chance that they, like the Eagles are predicted to do, of getting the top seed, with the reward of a first-round bye.

The first-round bye goes to the first-place seed in each conference. Currently, the Baltimore Ravens have the best record in the AFC at 9-3. The Bills are currently outside of the playoff spots and would not qualify for the postseason.

According to the simulator, the Bills have what is essentially a must-win game against the 2022 Super Bowl Champions Kansas City Chiefs following their bye week. Starting with a win against the Chiefs would see their odds of making the playoffs jump to 24 percent. A loss to the reigning Super Bowl champions would see the odds drop to 5 percent.

FanDuel

The supercomputer might say one thing, but football markets are feeling differently than the simulations. The betting market is much more optimistic of the Bills chance to not only make the playoffs, but win the division, and even the Super Bowl.

Despite the loss to the Eagles, the Bills currently have a +360 odds to make the 2023 NFL playoffs. This amounts to a 21.74 percent chance. The betting market also believes the Bills have a 10 percent odds (+900) of winning the AFC East vs. the NYT simulator which had the Bills at a 3% chance.

Now, Buffalo going toe to toe with a Super Bowl caliber team in the Eagles shows that they can hang with the best of the best. Could they run the AFC table and book their place in Super Bowl LVIII?

According to FanDuel, the Bills have a 5 percent chance (+1900) of winning the AFC Championship and a 3 percent chance (+3300) of winning this year’s Super Bowl.

Now, betting markets aren’t designed to truly highlight people’s thoughts on what a team is capable of, but designed to have people bet as much as possible. Always gamble responsibly if you choose to gamble.

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PFF: 5 highest-graded Bills players on offense in Week 12

You’ll be shocked to see Josh Allen:

The Buffalo Bills narrowly lost in overtime against the Philadelphia Eagles, 37-34, in their Week 12 matchup on Sunday afternoon.

The Bills (6-6) had a few players that stood out above the rest in this one. On offense, the Bills were led by quarterback Josh Allen for the second game in a row as he took over a new-look offense with Joe Brady supporting as the offensive coordinator against a league-best Eagles team that has lost only one game this season.

Despite a great performance, Buffalo didn’t have the final push to secure a win. But in terms of the players who got them close to a win, the Bills will hope such efforts will remain throughout the rest of the 2023 season as the aim to secure a postseason spot.

According to Pro Football Focus, they’ll need these players to continue to play at a high level.

Here are the five highest-graded Bills players on offense against the Eagles (10-1) according to PFF’s metrics: