Tag: air force football

Air Force at New Mexico: Can the Falcons beat the Lobos?

Air Force at New Mexico: Can the Falcons beat the Lobos? Can Air Force win their sixth straight against New Mexico? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire WEEK 6: Air Force Falcons 1-4 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. New Mexico Lobos 1-4 (0-1 Mountain West) WHEN: …

Air Force at New Mexico: Can the Falcons beat the Lobos?

Can Air Force win their sixth straight against New Mexico?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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WEEK 6: Air Force Falcons 1-4 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. New Mexico Lobos 1-4 (0-1 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, October 12th, 5 p.m. MT

WHERE: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM

TV: truTV/MAX
JB Long, play by play
Mike Golic, Jr., analyst
Bridget Howard, reporter

SERIES HISTORY: Air Force leads the overall series, 26-14

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | New Mexico

 

It’s already Week six, and either the Falcons or Lobos are going to find themselves in the win column in Conference play by Sunday. While both teams are winless in Mountain West play, Air Force is already two games in the hole, while New Mexico has suffered just one loss, coming from their matchup against Fresno State a few weeks back. You always want to win Conference games, but for two programs that could really use the extra practices for player development that come from a Bowl week, losing a fifth game on the year before week seven would all but end any dreams of a post season game.

The Lobos didn’t exactly enter the 2024 campaign labeled as Conference contenders, but this team is plenty interesting. They brought in a very established coach in Bronco Mendenhall, who by the way is 5-1 in his career against Air Force. New Mexico also had a massive influx of transfers with the coaching change, bringing in 42 players from other programs. Sprinkle in 11 returning starters, playmakers like Luke Wysong, Tavian Combs (injured) and Devon Dampier, and you can see why there is plenty of intrigue in Albuquerque.

Not all that different from the Lobos, Air Force had a massive roster overhaul. Now, the nature of the changes to their personnel, and certainly the way which they are limited to address it are in stark contrast. As most are aware, the Military Academies don’t have the benefit of the transfer portal, nor do they have conventional redshirt opportunities to develop their players. Now as some, and they will say that no transfer portal is an advantage as it is one less thing to worry about. That reality is highly debatable though.

Having 30 players now, who have started games for their first time this year, it’s fair to say the luxury of dipping into the pool might not of been a bad option to have. That is not the reality though. The harsh truth is, Troy Calhoun is looking for answers to a lot of questions, with very limited resources to pull from.

The Air Force offense has been dreadful, the defense hasn’t been a whole lot better, and now they are dealing with a litany of injuries. These are Biblical challenges, right out of the book of Job.

THE TALE OF THE TAPE

When comparing these two teams it’s hard to ignore the discrepancy in offensive production. The Lobos have thrown for nearly 1,000 yards more than the Falcons, are scoring 20+ more points per game and have double the passing and rushing touchdowns that Air Force has. You read that correct, the New Mexico Lobos have scored twice as many rushing touchdowns as the Air Force Fightin’ Falcons on the season. In fact, the Lobos quarterback, Devon Dampier has more rushing yards (333) than any two Air Force ball carriers combined.

Now, it is fair to point out, this New Mexico team has a top 25 scoring offense, averaging 32 points per game. But to be doubling up the Falcons in so many meaningful offensive statistics is troubling.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lobos haven’t been nearly as productive. New Mexico is giving up more than 240 rush yards, on the way to surrendering almost 44 points per game. If ever this Air Force running game was going to find life, it has to be in Albuquerque.

CONCLUSION

Everyone is down on the Falcons right now. Rightfully so, as they haven’t inspired a lot of confidence with their on field play. Unfortunately for Air Force, injuries haven’t made rebounding from their third consecutive loss any easier.

It’s hard to believe the real perspective of this game is focusing on all the things that have to go the Falcon’s way, to give this team a chance. A chance against a one-win New Mexico Lobo’s team. But that that’s where we are right now. It’s about doing the little things right, and building on those small things.

 

It goes without saying, the offense has to be turnover free if Air Force wants to win this game. But they also have to avoid those drive killing penalties, which have started to rear far too often. And whether it’s Quentin Hayes or John Busha under center, the mesh point, pitch and exchange must be clean. This team has fumbled the ball eight times already, somehow they’ve lost just two of those fumbles. They should not try their “fumble luck”.

The real problem I suspect in this game is going to be the playmaking ability of New Mexico’s offense. Specifically, the off-schedule ability of Devon Dampier to make plays. He has thrown six picks on the year, so the defense needs to be very opportunistic when better discretion is compromised. The defense really must be assignment sound as well. This Falcon team looks less athletic and is far less experienced than teams of past, so the details and mental aspects of the game are imperative. Otherwise they are going to find themselves chasing athletes that they simply aren’t going to be able to match up well with.

There simply isn’t enough going well for Air Force to suggest they are going to beat a team with scoring potential. The offense, and the run game in particular need a jolt, and maybe giving Quentin Hayes a little more run under center can provide that. But if the line isn’t able to control the line of scrimmage, it doesn’t matter who is under center. That is why the game within the game is going to be so important this week.

You want to win every game you play. You are used to winning games against New Mexico. But if we are being honest about who this team is to date, there are no guaranteed wins. That’s why it is so important that the running game finds itself this week. They weren’t successful against what was statistically a very bad Wyoming team. Well, here is another chance to find some confidence. As the running game goes, so too does this team. A healthy rushing attack gives the defense relief, reducing the number of possessions of the opposition. Not to mention, it can downright wear out an opponent physically and mentally. Focus on finding your game Air Force, the results will come. I just don’t know it’s going to be the results we are hoping for yet, not this week anyways.

New Mexico 31 – Air Force 21

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Air Force vs. Navy: Simulation and Prediction

Our Simulations Says Navy Wins 14-7 Can Air Force Prove Our Simulation Wrong? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire WEEK 5: Air Force Falcons 1-3 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. Navy Midshipmen 4-0 (3-0 AAC) WHEN: Saturday, October 5th, 10 a.m. MT WHERE: Falcon …

Our Simulations Says Navy Wins 14-7

Can Air Force Prove Our Simulation Wrong?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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WEEK 5: Air Force Falcons 1-3 (0-2 Mountain West) vs. Navy Midshipmen 4-0 (3-0 AAC)

WHEN: Saturday, October 5th, 10 a.m. MT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

TV: CBS
Rich Waltz, play by play
Ross Tucker, analyst
Tiff any Blackmon, reporter

SERIES HISTORY: Air Force leads the overall series, 34-22

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | Navy

To this point, the 2024 season has Air Force and Navy at opposite ends of the success spectrum. The Mids have come out the gates blazing, taking care of business against lesser competition, while stacking a huge win against pre-season AAC favorite, Memphis.

The Falcons on the other hand, have struggled in every conceivable fashion to start the FBS portion of their schedule. Now losers of three straight, Troy Calhoun’s squad will need an unprecedented jump in play if they want to stop the bleeding and avoid an early elimination from the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy race.

If you are interested in a little more detailed look at these two schools and what has transpired to this point in the season, check out our work from earlier in the week. Air Force vs. Navy: A Look at the Academies

OUR SIMULATION

To add a wrinkle to this week’s preview, we’ve used the new College Football 25 game, from EA Sports to help project the winner.

In our simulation, Navy took down Air Force in a low scoring affair, winning 14-7. The ultimate decider was a Colin Ramos fumble return for a touchdown to give the Mids the lead and secure victory.

Statistics were rather pedestrian, as both quarterbacks threw for just over 50 yards. Neither team eclipsed 200 yards of total offense. I don’t think the EA Sports game got the memo yet, Blake Horvath and the Navy offense is a force to be reckoned with.

EXPECTATIONS FOR SATURDAY

Last year, the Air Force defense imposed their will on Navy. Defensively, they weren’t relenting a foot, much less a yard. Don’t be fooled by the final score, that was really done in mop-up time to end the game. The Mids were never a real threat to score on an outstanding Falcon defense, much less a threat to win the game.

Offensively for Air Force, a big pass play from Zach Larrier to Dane Kinamon is the marque explosive offensive play from the game. Unfortunately for the Falcons, neither player has eligibility left, nor do any of last years starting offensive lineman.

2024 projects to be very different. Navy quarterback, Blake Horvath, is top ten nationally in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and yards per carry. Not to mention, the guy has been carving teams up with his arm as well. The Mids have their offense hitting on all cylinders, and it actually looks a lot like some of the dynamic Air Force offenses from seasons past.

This years offense doesn’t mark even the slightest resemblance to that of the past, nor this years Naval Academy unit. Maybe with time and more experience, things will start to click. But as it stands, this is one of the least productive offenses in the country, and stunningly, much of it has to do with their inability to run the ball.

It’s not as if Navy has featured an iron-clad defense. To the contrary, they have surrendered points. But the Falcons have yet to figure things out, even against a very underwhelming Wyoming team. These are all ingredients to another year absence of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.

Games between these Military schools are always different. It is often said, and it’s just as often true. But the lack of any sign of life that suggest Air Force could threaten to score points at a clip that rivals Navy at this point would be nothing short of hope or optimism. There will be an “Ah ha” moment at some point for this Falcon offense. Maybe not to the extent we are used to seeing, but potential to improve is certainly there. I’m just not sure it’s this week, nor in the form of potential that can rival the team opposite them.

Navy has the standout quarterback, rolls two deep with outstanding fullbacks in Alex Tecza and Daba Fofana, and they are flanked by an outstanding playmaker in Eli Heidenreich. There are just too many weapons to contend with.

Navy 24- Air Force 13

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Air Force vs. Navy Week: A look at the Academies

Air Force vs. Navy Week: A look at the Academies Two Programs Heading in Opposite Directions Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire It is officially Air Force versus Navy week! The first round in the three-team battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy …

Air Force vs. Navy Week: A look at the Academies

Two Programs Heading in Opposite Directions

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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It is officially Air Force versus Navy week! The first round in the three-team battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy kicks off this Saturday in Colorado Springs. One of the great traditions in all of sports, the Falcons once dominated this series and were stingy possessors of the coveted trophy, securing it 21 times. Compare that to Navy’s 16 and Army’s 10*, and you could be fooled into thinking all is well at the Springs.

Not so much.

Despite having an overwhelmingly better season win total than Navy and Army the last few years, the CiC has become elusive to the Falcons, who last won the series in 2022. By contrast, Army has won the CiC five out of the last seven years. To put that into perspective, they started playing this series in 1972, and the Black Knights have secured the trophy five* of their 10* times in the last seven years. Impressive or disgusting? It depends on which of the three camps you stand.

And if your curious about the asterisk (*) by Army’s win total, do a quick internet search using the terms “Army Football Suspended Honor Code”. Or you can click here.

 

EXPERIENCE FUELS SUCCESS

The contrast between Navy and Air Force in 2024 has become blaring. Much of this is due in part because of the great progress Head Coach Brian Newberry and the Mids have made from last year. And if we’re being honest, there has to be a ton of credit given to their offensive coordinator, Drew Cronic. What he’s done with the development of the Mids offense under the controls of quarterback Blake Horvath is impressive to say the least.

Horvath is getting a ton of recognition this season, and rightfully so. He currently leads the American Athletic Conference in rushing and total touchdowns. If you have been following Navy for the past few years, basically since Malcolm Perry departed the program, then you know how desperate they have been for consistent quarterback play. As an Air Force fan, you have got to appreciate this challenge.

Horvath’s ascension and spectacular play should present a perfect case study for optimism among the Falcon faithful. The Navy quarterback was mired in a carousel of players rising and then falling down the depth chart in 2023. With the graduation of Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline, Horvath entered this season with a clear path to take the reigns as the starter, despite a rocky 2023. And the investment has paid off. Take a look at the year over year progress from the Mids quarterback courtesy of Sports-Reference.

PASSING Season G Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Y/G Rate
2023 4 6 12 50 84 2 0 21 164
2024 4 30 44 68.2 637 7 1 159 238
Career 8 36 56 64.3 721 9 1 90.1 222
RUSHING Season G Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G
2023 4 37 183 4.9 0 45.8
2024 4 47 450 9.6 8 113
Career 8 84 633 7.5 8 79.1

Now looking at the Air Force quarterback situation, the production is a stark contrast. John Busha has started all four games this season, and if we are being honest, the offense hasn’t exactly flourished. But look at what Horvath’s production was in his first four starts, and it’s eerily similar. I am not saying Busha is poised to have the same type of breakout in production, definitely not. But what I am suggesting is, it takes time. And you cannot discount the reality of what an impact the pieces around the quarterback position makes.

Air Force is breaking new pieces at every position around Busha, basically. Navy took their lumps the past few years, but now have experience and skill surrounding their quarterback. Skill all over the field is a luxury that the Falcons have enjoyed for years, up until 2024. Now it’s their turn to take some lumps before molding the next core of Cadets to lead the program to another resurgence.

 

SPOILED BY SUCCESS

When you think about the challenge that this season has become for Air Force, it should be a healthy reminder of just how good they have been for some time. Very few teams in the nation have won as many games year after year as the Falcons have in the past five seasons. Navy by comparison, had fallen on very hard times before the promise of 2024. Their four wins to date, match or exceed their season win total for four of the past six seasons. Air Force won 9 or more games in that same span, winning 11 twice and 10 another. That is the kind of success that is incredibly hard to sustain, and equally impressive. Unfortunately, it also makes hard times that much more difficult. But perspective is worth bearing in mind.

In case your wondering, success over that period of time has included a fantastic run against Power Five (now Power Four) programs. The Falcons suffered their first loss to a school in the P4 over that same span, this year. Take a look at how the Academies have fared against P4 and P5 over the same period.

The Academies vs. P4 and P5 since 2018 season.

Air Force 4-1

Army 0-11

Navy 1-5

Full disclosure, for Navy in particular, there are a lot of really difficult matchups in those five losses, nearly all coming at the hands of Notre Dame.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

I think what makes this season’s rocky start so much more challenging is the success that Army and Navy have had. The Falcons have been a winning machine, closing with Bowl victories like clockwork for the past few seasons, and it’s gone relatively unnoticed by the National media.

Army and Navy are 1/3 of the way through this season, and their promising start has made them the darlings of much of the same media that has ignored the shear dominance that Air Force has exhibited on a yearly basis.

This coaching staff and program have shown a knack for rebounding and doing so with a statement and staying power. Let’s see if Troy Calhoun and crew and accelerate that rebound, starting October 5th against their rivals from Annapolis.

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Air Force at Wyoming: Can the Falcons defeat the Pokes?

Air Force at Wyoming: Can the Falcons defeat the Pokes? Will either team be able to find their scoring touch? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire The Falcons look to rebound fresh off of their bye-week WEEK 4: Air Force Falcons 1-2 (0-1 Mountain West) …

Air Force at Wyoming: Can the Falcons defeat the Pokes?

Will either team be able to find their scoring touch?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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The Falcons look to rebound fresh off of their bye-week

WEEK 4: Air Force Falcons 1-2 (0-1 Mountain West) vs. Wyoming Cowboys 0-4 (0-0 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, September 28th, 6 p.m. MT

WHERE: War Memorial Stadium (Laramie, WY)

TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz, play by play
Robert Turbin, analyst
Amanda Guerra, reporter

SERIES HISTORY: Air Force leads the overall series, 31-27-3

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | Wyoming

 

It’s hard to believe we are already a quarter of the way through the college football season. Yet with plenty left on the schedule, Saturday’s matchup looks dire for two programs desperate for a win.

Prior to losing their last two matchups, Air Force did win their season opener, albeit in less-than-spectacular fashion against Merrimack College. Maybe they should be glad it wasn’t against stiffer FCS competition, because Wyoming wasn’t as fortunate on their home turf, losing to an old familiar foe, the Idaho Vandals. With just a single win between these two programs, something has to give on Saturday.

SIMILAR STRUGGLES

There are a lot of similarities between the Falcons and Pokes in this young season. In most years, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. In 2024 thus far, it is company that shouldn’t be preferred. Inability to score points, beatings at the hands of a Big12 team and shaky play from what was anticipated to be very steady kicking games. All is not well North, nor South on I-25.

Both teams have struggled immensely on offense. A lot of attention will be given to their respective quarterback play when diagnosing their offensive woes, and rightfully so. Both John Busha and Evan Svoboda are in their first year as starting signal callers, and they have not gotten the kind of support from their surrounding cast that you would hope for, when breaking in a new quarterback.

In Busha’s case, he is one of what are now 24 players on the Falcons who have made their first career start this season. This is the most nationally, and no surprise a factor when you consider the teams early season struggles. This week’s depth chart still lists Busha as the starter, and if the offense is going to start to find their stride, he’s got to take better care of the ball and make quicker decisions. Two things that are made much easier when you enjoy the luxury of an elite offensive line and experienced personnel at the skill positions. Maybe that will be the case in time, but right now, they are trying to figure things out.

This is not the Falcon offense of 2023. Nor should it be expected with all of the aforementioned turnover and new starters. I also don’t think it was a unit expected to rank 130th or worse nationally in Scoring Offense, Total Offense, Pass Efficiency or First Downs. For context, there are 133 teams in the FBS, and Air Force is dead last in Passing Offense, Pass Efficiency and First Downs. While Air Force usually is near the bottom nationally in passing offense (yards), that is typically because they are leading the nation in rushing offense. Not even close this year, as the ground game hasn’t quite found its way. And to be last in Pass Efficiency and First Down is unheard of for an Air Force Falcons team. These are hard times the offense has fallen on.

“Hard Times” sounds like it could be an old song played around the campfire. Which would be fitting because the Cowboys are singing it as well. They too rank outside of the top 130 nationally in Scoring Offense, Total Offense and Passing Efficiency. It should be worth mentioning though, their red-zone offense is tied for first nationally. While trips to the red-zone haven’t come often for the Pokes, they’ve made them count.

As bad as things have been on the offensive side of the ball in Laramie, the defense hasn’t been a whole lot better. This is much more surprising when you look at the personnel they have on that side of the ball. Wyoming was a stout defensive team under Craig Bohl, and that same expectation was there with new head coach Jay Sawvel. Unfortunately for the Pokes, this year’s team does not resemble those of the past, defensively. And boy could they use some of that juice right now.

 

Air Force has not fared much better, statistically at least. Don’t be fooled by Baylor scoring 31 points though. The defense was left on the field way too long, for far too many drives. After enough punts and turnovers, the levee broke, and much of that damage came in the fourth quarter. Were it not for stellar performances the previous two games, San Jose State may have routed the Falcons, and they very well may have suffered a similar fate as Wyoming, losing to an FCS opponent in the opener.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN LARAMIE

At risk of sounding redundant, anyone familiar with the production that Air Force lost from last years roster knew this would be a transition year. For the Falcons, it’s more about deciphering what a transition from a perennial 9 or 10-win team is. It is still too early to tell, especially with injuries starting to pile up on an already taxed roster. But if this team wants to make a push towards being in Bowl contender conversations by years end, this is the game to stack one in the win column. A loss makes the trajectory look eerily similar to that forgettable 2012 season.

These are typically low scoring affairs between Air Force and Wyoming, even in years which they’ve featured more prolific offenses. Traveling to Laradise has also proven to be a problem for some very good Falcon teams. Points are going to be at a premium, I don’t care what Bet ESPN says, there won’t be 34 points scored in this game. They somehow have Air Force favored by four, even that very well may exceed the point total for this contest.

 

With all the rhetoric around offensive deficiencies, and inconsistent kicking games, don’t sleep on the other aspect of special teams. Something to watch out for if you are Air Force, is the kick return game of Wyoming. Tyler King has already returned one to the house, and this is exactly the kind of game where field position from a strong return can affect the outcome.

Another thing to watch out for is points off of turnovers. Air Force forced three turnovers against both Baylor and Merrimack. Wyoming is near the bottom nationally in turnover margin and turnovers gained. It’s not as if the Falcons have been pristine with ball protection either, now would not be the time to help improve the Cowboys standing in this statistical area.

A fumble return for a touchdown, pick six or a special teams score could loom very large in a game like this. Even with a less than impressive showing by the Wyoming defense to date, there is a history that suggest they aren’t going to surrender yards in this game, and there are a number of players on that defense that may be able to validate that. Especially when you look in the trenches.

It’s crazy to say your optimistic coming off of a performance that your offense didn’t score a single touchdown, but I’m going to say it. Their last game saw the most productive rushing attack of the season, and the more players like Kemper Hodges, Cade Harris and Aiden Calvert can get a little daylight, you should see continued growth of the offense. I just don’t know that we will see enough improvement to say with confidence this team is going to find the endzone with any consistency. Not yet anyways.

Laramie has been inhospitable, and don’t expect that to change, regardless of Wyoming’s record. I have to see more from the Air Force offense to feel really confident in wins going forward. This happens to be a game that even if the offense were in a better place, it’s hard to predict a Falcon win traveling to Laradise.

Look for another low scoring affair. I’m anxious to be wrong, so let’s make it happen Air Force.

Air Force 9 – Wyoming 13

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Air Force vs. Merrimack: How the Falcons can beat the Warriors

Air Force vs. Merrimack: How the Falcons can beat the Warriors Will Troy Calhoun and the Falcons Stay Perfect Against FCS Competition Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force keep on rolling despite replacing most of last years starters? WEEK …

Air Force vs. Merrimack: How the Falcons can beat the Warriors

Will Troy Calhoun and the Falcons Stay Perfect Against FCS Competition

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force keep on rolling despite replacing most of last years starters?

WEEK 1: Air Force Falcons 0-0 vs. Merrimack College Warriors 0-0

WHEN: Saturday, Aug. 31, 1:30 p.m. MT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

TV: CBS Sports Network; Chris Lewis- play by play, Robert Turbin- Analyst and Amanda Guerra- reporter

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force

 

The wait is finally over, Air Force football has arrived! The last time we saw the Falcons in action, they were pummeling James Madison in the Armed Forces Bowl. This of course was the win to stop a four-game losing skid to end the regular season, which ironically was preceded by a blazing 8-0 start to the year. A lot of ups and downs along the ride to a 9-win campaign.

The reset button has been pressed, and we will be seeing a very different team in 2024. The hope is to have similar results to what Troy Calhoun has been able to manifest consistently in Colorado Springs over the years, but with a lot of new starters.

Historically, the season opener for Air Force has often been an FCS opponent, and with very consistent results. A win. The Falcons are 27-0 all-time against the FCS, while Troy Calhoun has led the team to victory in 17 of those wins. Standing in the way of a 1-0 start to the 2024 season are the Merrimack College Warriors from the FCS level MAAC.

The Warriors were 5-6 last season, finishing sixth in their conference with a 4-3 record. Last years team was led by running back Tyvon Edmonds Jr. who rushed for more than 1,200 yards and collected 10 touchdowns. Well Edmonds Jr. has since transferred to Robert Morris University, who Air Force opened the season against last year.

Trying to fill the void for all those rushing yards this year will predominantly be Donovan Wadley, who is on the Walter Payton Award Watch List. Wadley ran for just over 200 yards last year, averaging over 6 yards per carry on the way to three touchdowns. The belief is that he will be able to deliver at a very high level with the increased opportunities. He is the first player from Merrimack to ever be named to the Award’s pre-season list.

They also return their starting quarterback from last year, Malakai Anthony, who presents as a dual threat. Expect Merrimack to lean on their ground.

 

PREDICTION

At risk of marginalizing their opponent Saturday, the focus for Air Force will be a lot more about chemistry, execution and exiting the game healthy. There are a lot of new players in critical positions that will be getting acclimated as starters against the Warriors. This is the time work the kinks out, before speeding right into Conference play against San Jose State in week two.

Expect John Busha, Dylan Carson and the newly crested offensive line to get to work early and often before relenting to some depth players as the game wears on. The same should be said for the defense with a lot of new guys in the starting line-up, supported by some absolute studs like Payton Zdroik, Camby Goff and Jamari Bellamy.

Colorado Springs is a long way from North Andover, Massachusetts. Thankfully the weather is outstanding this time of year in Colorado, because that should be more enjoyable for Merrimack than the game, unfortunately. It will be good to find their rhythm against an FCS opponent before the competition really stiffens for the balance of the Air Force 2024 calender.

Air Force 38 – Merrimack 9

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Air Force Football 2024: Genesis

Air Force Football: Genesis 2024 Can Air Force Keep Thriving with a Roster Overhaul? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire We’ve got an updated schedule pic.twitter.com/nbW0xG7F1j – Air Force Football (@AF_Football) July 1, 2024 The last time we saw the …

Air Force Football: Genesis 2024

Can Air Force Keep Thriving with a Roster Overhaul?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

 

The last time we saw the Air Force Fightin’ Falcons in game action, they wore out the James Madison Dukes by a score of 31-21 in the Armed Forces Bowl, back in December. A lot has happened since then.

WHAT HAS HAPPENED

A quarter of last year’s starters on defense are presently on NFL rosters, Falcon Stadium has undertaken a spectacular renovation, more than 3,600 yards from last years offense graduated in the spring, along with the entire offensive line that was one of the best in the nation. And that is only covering the changes this team is experiencing at a very high level. So you get the picture, it’s a new season, and a very new team.

Noone is going to cry for Air Force though, nor should they. A very experienced coaching staff has excelled at developing players through their program that has navigated such changes with little to no turbulence. In fact, they tend to thrive in the given circumstances. If you want a detailed breakdown of the talent turnover and just how good of a coaching staff resides in Colorado Springs, Nittany Falcon wrote an excellent piece which you can find here.

WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT

Anytime you lose generational talents like Trey Taylor, Bo Richter and a deep experienced offensive line unit, a drop off is going to be expected. The schedule does not allow for a slow immersion for a team of majority new starters. After their week one FCS Opener against Merrimack, the rest of the schedule is relentless starting with their week two Conference opener against San Jose State. This is a Spartan team now led by someone very familiar with Air Force in long time Navy coach, Ken Niumatalolo.

After that, the Falcons head to Waco, Texas, where Baylor will be seeking retribution for the thumping Air Force handed them a two years ago at Bowl Season. This is their schedule in a microcosm, week to week matchups with familiar opponents, bitter rivals and of course the Beavers who for some reason are still in the Pac2. Or is it Tupac, because ‘Life Goes On’? Either, way, the 2024 schedule is quite interesting week to week.

For the second year in a row, Troy Calhoun and crew will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, who in all likelihood will be John Busha. Last year saw this team come blazing out of the gates behind Zach Larrier. But this years team doesn’t have the experience surrounding Busha that Larrier did. Namely an entire offensive line of All-Conference performers, basically. While Busha won’t be flanked by an entirely new backfield, they will have to replace 2,000 yards of rushing production from John Lee Eldridge III, Owen Burke and Emmanuel Michel.

This is what makes college football beautiful though. The year to year transition of players and roster composition are always there, and the best programs have learned to navigate it. Troy Calhoun and the Air Force Falcons certainly have managed it quite well. So don’t fret, there is plenty to be excited about. Where there may be critical player losses, new stars will emerge.

For starters, Steed Lobotzke is the King Midas of offensive line coaches. It seems like he is turning out gold at every turn with his players. And that is not by luck, there isn’t a better coach at the position in the country. The ball carriers behind the new offensive line are going to be fine as well. Dylan Carson was just a hair under 500 yards for the season last year, averaging over seven yards per carry, while splitting carries with two other fullbacks.

 

Defensively, it’s easy to focus on massive losses by volume and talent as mentioned earlier. But returning are two of the best players in the conference at their positions in Payton Zdroik and Camby Goff. Many are quick to forget, Camby Goff was an All-Conference player before a week one injury ended his season last year.  This is a guy who played as a freshman and is a three-year starter bouncing between the secondary and that hybrid spur position. Sticking with the secondary, it is the one area that the Falcons return plenty of game experience. Zdroik down in the trenches is an absolute game wrecker and will help settle a lot of new pieces in the front seven.

The most experienced unit at Air Force has to be special teams. They return all of their starters from last season and are two deep with experience at kicker and punter. With a Lou Groza Watch List kicker in Matthew Dapore.  They may have to break in a new kick and punt returner to confidently put their hand in the air to signal a fair catch though.

nice to see

One of the things that I am most excited about has to be the surfacing of prominent recruits from recruiting classes of the past rearing on the roster. Full disclosure, we all know the roster which Air Force shares isn’t necessarily an indication of who you are going to see on the field. But a lot of the underclassmen, and those who went to the prep school sort of vanish from sight for a year or two to either never be seen again or in some cases surface as playmakers.

Here are some the guys for those who have been following the Falcon recruiting classes the past few years should be excited about as newcomers to the roster, or prime to take a leap in contributions.

OFFENSE

Alec Falk (OL), Tre Roberson (WR), Kade Frew (RB), Kaden Cloud (RB), Henry Rickels (OL), Bruin Fleischmann (TE) and converted quarterback Kemper Hodges (FB).

DEFENSE

Houston Hendrix (DB/LB), Kyle Chen, Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner (DB), Dallas Daley (LB), Blake Fletcher (LB), Luke Meyer (LB), Jack Curtis (DE), Zach Juckel (LB) and Hiroshi Carr (DB).

UP NEXT

Next week we will have our first season preview for Air Force as they prepare to take on Merrimack for their opener. While your waiting for the Falcons to kick off the season, take in some of the week zero offerings as New Mexico, Nevada and Hawai’i all play this week!

 

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College Football 25: The Mountain West Conference

CFB25: The Mountain West Conference According to EA Sports College Football 25, Nevada and Boise State will play for the Mountain West Conference Championship. Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Just three empty Saturday’s stand between us and Week …

CFB25: The Mountain West Conference

According to EA Sports College Football 25, Nevada and Boise State will play for the Mountain West Conference Championship. 

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

Just three empty Saturday’s stand between us and Week Zero’s slate of games to kick off the NCAA Football season! I know, I know, it’s been a long off-season and we are all yearning for some game action. Well, there is some good news.

Two weeks ago, EA Sports finally released the College Football 25 video game after a decade long absence for their signature franchise series. To say this has been a much-anticipated return would be a colossal understatement. EA Sports sold over 2 million copies of their premium edition, which granted gamers access three days in advance of it’s announced July 19th standard release date.

As a long time enthusiast of this games series, I was one of the 2 million who secured early access. While there is no replacing a Saturday (or the myriad of other days that games are now played on) of Mountain West action, CFB25 provides a nice bridge to the official start of the 2024 season.

Recognizing that not every college football fan has, or will purchase the CFB25 game, we want to share some of the fun with everyone. So here is what we’ve done.

WE’VE SIMULATED THE 2024 SEASON

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Using the Dynasty feature on the CFB25 game, we’ve simulated the entire 2024 football season. In case you’re wondering, Jacksonville State did make the playoff in our simulation as the lone representative from the Group of Five. As if being snubbed from the playoff wasn’t bad enough, the MWC fans aren’t going to be happy to learn that BYU didn’t just make the college football playoff but earned a bye week as well.

So sure, the introduction of the new 12-Team College Football Playoff is exciting, but we’re here for the Mountain West Action! Even though no Mountain West Conference team made the playoff in our simulation, there were plenty of interesting yields from the season.

HOW THE (MOUNTAIN) WEST WAS WON

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Probably not surprising to many, the Boise State Broncos were your Mountain West Conference Champions. Who did they have to defeat to win the championship? Nevada. That’s right, the Nevada Wolf Pack weren’t just Bowl eligible, but were nearly crowned Conference Champs in our simulation.

Joining Boise State and Nevada in Bowl eligibility were Air Force, Fresno State, San Diego State, New Mexico and Hawai’i.

AWARDS AND RECOGNITION

One of the first things that stood out was the New Mexico Lobos surrendered the fewest points defensively. One of the reasons for the strong defensive showing was their defensive end, Gabriel Lopez who recorded 15.5 sacks on the year. Lopez was third in voting for the Nations Best Defensive End award. It didn’t hurt that Tavian Combs was tied for the Conference lead in interceptions too.

The All-Conference First Team was littered with Broncos, as seven players from Boise State earned spots. Brayden Schager represented Hawai’i well, as he was the recognized as the top quarterback in the Conference. Somewhat shocking, Ashton Jeanty was not the first team running back, nor was Tory Horton an All-Conference nominee at all. However, Jeanty was on the second team, while Horton actually sustained a season ending injury on the simulation. Injury is the only thing that could keep that guy from snagging passes.

It was also interesting to see that three Mountain West quarterbacks threw for 30 or more touchdowns. Malachi Nelson (38), Brayden Schager (32), Devon Dampier (31) and Spencer Petras (30) all cleared 30 tudd’s and 3,000 yards on the year! And not surprising at all, Air Force’s Dylan Carson led the Conference in Rushing yards. Video game or not, get acquainted with that name.

SNUBBED

It was a lot of fun running this simulation and seeing how some of our favorite teams and players fared. But the level of disrespect for the Mountain West was undeniable. No teams in the playoff. Noone ranked in the top 25. And there wasn’t a single player from the Conference recognized as a consensus All-American.

Coaches across the Mountain West may want to print this and hang it up as motivation for the season. Our EA Sports College Football 25 season may have slept on the Mountain West, but we know better. We just can’t wait for the actual season to kick off and do the fact checks!

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The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force Runs Over James Madison 31-21

The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force Runs Over James Madison 31-21 The Falcons Nuke the Dukes Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire After going winless in the month of November, following an 8-0 start to the season, Air Force corrects course …

The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force Runs Over James Madison 31-21

The Falcons Nuke the Dukes

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

After going winless in the month of November, following an 8-0 start to the season, Air Force corrects course by winning the Armed Forces Bowl in convincing fashion. The Falcons wore out the Dukes by a score of 31-21.

Entering the contest, the Dukes of JMU were favored, and for good reason. They just capped off a 12-1 campaign, and feature one of the top passing attacks in the country, and what was statistically the stoutest defense against the run nationally. Air Force said hold my beer.

JMU learned early on what many do the hard way; Air Force is built different. There aren’t any teams on the Dukes schedule that pose the kind of problems that the Falcons do, in particular in the run game. James Madison was averaging just 2 yards per carry allowed, and 62 yards per game on the ground for the season. Senior fullback, Emmanuel Michel pounded the Dukes for over 200 rush yards and two tudd’s on his own.

It was a great way to end the season, winning their 9th game of the season over a very good opponent. The Air Force seniors really showed up and impacted the game; from an unblockable Bo Richter being a menace and disrupting the Dukes offense all game long, to John Lee Eldridge III and Emmanuel Michel shredding JMU’s vaunted defense, Jonathan Youngblood’s interception and Zach Larrier’s flawless execution of the offense behind the road grading Diesel’s, the senior stars shined the brightest.

The Air Force Fightin’ Falcons have won their fifth consecutive Bowl Game, and are Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Champions!

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Air Force Falcons look to fly high once more in 2023 and take down the James Madison Dukes. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Air Force Falcons look to fly high once more in 2023 and take down the James Madison Dukes. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

The cadets hope to extend a five-game bowl winning streak.

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL: James Madison Dukes (11-1, 7-1 Sun Belt) vs. Air Force Falcons (8-4, 5-3 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, December 23 — 1:30 PM MT/12:30 PM PT

WHERE: Amon G. Carter Stadium; Fort Worth, TX

WEATHER: Cloudy with a chance of showers, high of 67 degrees

TV: ABC

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ABC, by following this link.

RADIO: The James Madison broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Morris Insurance and Financial Services Broadcast Network, including flagship 550 AM and 92.1 FM (WSVA) in Harrisonburg. The Air Force broadcast can be found on 740 AM (KVOR) in Colorado Springs and 104.3 FM The Fan in Denver.

SERIES RECORD: This is the first meeting between James Madison and Air Force.

LAST GAME: James Madison defeated Coastal Carolina on the road, 56-14, while Air Force lost to Boise State on the road, 27-19.

WEBSITES: JMUSports.com, the official James Madison athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): James Madison | Air Force

ODDS: James Madison -1

SP+ PROJECTION: James Madison by 8.1

FEI PROJECTION: James Madison by 6.9

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: James Madison 58.99% win probability (28.29-21.61)

Darlings of the Group of Five for much of the 2023 season, James Madison, will try and earn their first Bowl win. Standing in the way of their potential 12th win and inaugural Bowl victory are the Air Force Fightin’ Falcons.

It’s truly been an impressive season for JMU, who just entered the FBS. Despite some frankly ridiculous NCAA policies which prevented them from playing for a Conference Championship in the Sun Belt (as a deemed probation year at the FBS level), which they were far and away the top team of, they still find themselves at the doorstep of a season complete with Bowl hardware and national ranking. Not too bad for a team that was competing at the FCS level just one year ago.

Air Force on the other hand was right up there with the Dukes atop the class of the Group of Five programs, right until the calendar turned to November. Even since that devastating loss to Army, which was their first of the season after starting 8-0, they have yet to win a game.

In fact, it’s fair to say the Air Force team that played the last four games of the season hardly resembled that which began the season with an eight-game surge. There are a number of reasons that wins have eluded the Falcons, many of which remain as they face off against a very formidable opponent in Fort Worth, Texas. But don’t assume JMU will just roll the Falcon’s as clear favorites in this matchup. Air Force is not going to be like any other team the Dukes have faced this year. And just ask their last four Bowl opponents what it’s like playing Air Force in December; Baylor, Louisville, Wazzu and South Alabama provide a cautionary tale.

Here’s how the Dukes and Falcons can find a path to victory to finish 2023.

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Three Keys to a James Madison Victory

1. Tackles For Loss

Nothing derails an Air Force drive quite like Tackles for Loss (TFL’s). The Falcon offense is designed for modest but consistent against, down after down. Coincidentally, the Air Force defense also thrived on this philosophy, because when their offense is sustaining long clock grinding drives, it limits possessions and opportunities for the opposition.

TFL’s happen to be the Dukes specialty though. No one has collected more tackles behind the line of scrimmage than JMU. They’ve gathered 45 sacks on the season as part of that collection. If they can carry that play behind the Air Force line of scrimmage, it will be a very long day for an offense that has had their share of struggles lately.

2. Splash Plays

It’s no secret that JMU likes to chuck the ball around, and their transfer quarterback-to-be, Jordan McLoud, is quite good at it. Stop me if you heard this one before, but Air Force is going to have their hands full with another talented transfer portal player.

McCloud threw 32 touchdowns this year, and his two favorite targets Reggie Brown and Elijah Sarratt both averaged over 80 receiving yards per game. Brown in particular averaged 19.8 yards per catch. Those are Jalen Robinette numbers for you throwback enthusiasts.

This is critical to point out because during the Falcon’s late season nose dive, they were surrendering far too many big plays. Granted, they were often times against All-American players such as Ricky White and Ashton Jeanty, but their opponent on Saturday is every bit as capable of gashing them for large chunks of yardage.

3. Early Lead

Similar to early down victories mentioned in the first key, forcing an Air Force offense that has become inconsistent to play from behind could help pave the path to victory. Even if Zac Larrier is able to go for the Falcons, the offense hasn’t shown the kind of punch their opponents have, in particular with an ability to get quick strike scores. Falling behind early would be a big problem against what’s been a very stingy defense. The fact that the Bolts have yet to win a game when entering the 3rd quarter behind is evidence this should be a concern.

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Three Keys to an Air Force Victory

1. Early Down Success 

The ability to move the ball on early down sets the tone for the entire Air Force gameplan. Not just the offense.

Early down success for this offense is a steady appetite of three or four yard gains. Three yards at a clip isn’t exactly eye popping in today’s game, but it’s exactly what this team feeds on. It has such a cumulative effect by building momentum, establishing confidence, wearing out the defense, and limiting the opposition’s offensive possessions.

I would take it a step further and say that early down success has to lead to early game points. As mentioned earlier, they are going to need touchdowns to beat James Madison. To quote the immortal John Kreese “Strike First. Strike Hard. No Mercy.”. Air Force is 5-0 when scoring first this season.

2. Protect the Ball

Awaiting the Falcons is a JMU team that is one of the best nationally in turnover margin, at +.75. And it’s no coincidence that the Air Force late season collapse coincides with a significant increase in turnovers.

To date, Air Force has put the ball on the ground 21 times, losing 11 of those fumbles. Even if recovered, those fumbles are usually resulting in significant damage to their drives by lost yardage. And the Dukes are well versed at helping other teams forfeit possessions, forcing 21 turnovers on the season.

3. Details

The thing Air Force prides itself on is being detail oriented. I mean how else could a team that is clearly disadvantaged when it comes to recruiting and player development be so successful if they don’t find other ways to get an edge.

The offensive scheme they run is based on timing, precision, and chemistry. That leaks into all three phases of their game. It’s in part why a team that has gone four deep at cornerback and two to three deep all over the field, including quarterback, are still able to reel off an eight-win season.

You can only play who is healthy and available, and one of the things they do better than anyone is prepare the parts so they are interchangeable (to an extent) and can be plugged in to keep the machine humming.

Blown coverage, poor mesh point on a handoff, or missed blocks can be game changers on Saturday. The details matter. Executing at an elite level will be required to win this game.

Prediction

It would be lazy to just point to the last month of Air Force football as reason to pack it in on the season. But the reality is there were a lot of warts revealed on a team that looked really good climbing up to 17th in the AP Polls at one point. That seems like a lifetime ago quite honestly.

Meanwhile, James Madison has kept piling on victories. They enter this game with the nation’s most stout run defense, giving up just 2 yards per carry, and around 60 total rush yards per game. Anything close to that kind of success against Air Force will not just guarantee victory, but likely a not-so competitive game.

What I would suggest though, look at the schedules of these two teams and the scores. As bad as losses to Army and Hawai’i looked, those two defeats at the hands of the Mountain West Championship teams, Boise State and UNLV aren’t quite so bad. I’m not sure JMU would have fared any better playing either team at the time Air Force did.

I expect both teams to have their hands full with the particular niche’ each’s opponent presents. The way the Dukes sling the ball all over the field poses a big problem in my opinion. And that is no indictment on the Air Force secondary that features the best defensive back in the country, Trey Taylor. JMU proved week in and week out, they can execute a passing scheme at an elite level.

I expect the Air Force offense to be the deciding factor in this game. There are so many unknowns with injury entering this game, it really can change the complexion of things. Whether it’s Larrier, Jensen Jones or John Busha, they need to play a clean game and rely on that veteran ‘Diesel’ offensive line.

The defense will step up and make plays through the game as they did all season, But if they expect to lean on them to keep this a single digit game to win, that is going to result in a disappointing trip home from the Lone Star State.

There are a lot of very proud players suiting up for the last time on both sidelines. For Air Force, it’s senior laden with players who elected and fulfilled their four plus year commitment to the United States Air Force Academy and see the mission through with their teammates. Combine that with the edge a veteran head coach like Troy Calhoun gives you, versus JMU who is breaking in the new head-man as Frank Cignetti heads to middle-America, and I actually expect an Air Force win.

The 8-0 Air Force team that started the year is still in that locker room and on that sideline. Even if impacted by health, it’s a team that’s better than many. That includes an 11-1 James Madison Dukes team.

Air Force 27, James Madison 24

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Mountain West Football’s Updated 2024 Matchups Released

Mountain West Football’s Updated 2024 Matchups Released The Mountain West revised its college football schedule to include games against wayward Oregon State and Washington State. Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire What’s new? The vagaries of …

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Mountain West Football’s Updated 2024 Matchups Released

The Mountain West revised its college football schedule to include games against wayward Oregon State and Washington State.

Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

What’s new?

The vagaries of college football realignment didn’t directly impact the Mountain West Conference over the last calendar year, but the shockwaves of moves across the country resulted today in a revised slate of matchups that includes the Oregon State Beavers and Washington State Cougars, the two Pac-12 programs left behind by their conference mates’ exodus.

When it was announced that the conference would do away with the Mountain and West divisions in 2022, the conference announced a rotation that would protect two games for each team and extend through the 2025 season. A multitude of Power 5 programs had other plans, however, and when the Big 12, Big Ten, and ACC raided the Pac-12 for ten of its teams throughout 2023, it left Oregon State and Washington State standing alone.

Here are the home and away games that the Mountain West had previously unveiled for 2024:

Air Force, Nevada, and San Diego State will host the Beavers while Boise State, Fresno State, and New Mexico will do the same for the Cougars. Conversely, Colorado State, San Jose State, and UNLV will travel to Corvallis; Hawaii, Utah State, and Wyoming will head to Pullman. None of the games will count as part of the conference standings, however, meaning that each Mountain West team will have seven conference games rather than the usual eight.

The changes, as you might expect, have differing impacts on every Mountain West team’s pre-existing schedule. Air Force, for instance, will get to face Oregon State at home instead of Hawaii, but Colorado State now travels to Oregon State and Nevada rather than Boise and San Diego. As DNVR Sports’s Justin Michael noted, it will be the first time since 2010 that the Rams and Broncos do not face each other. Similarly, Wyoming will now host San Diego State and Utah State rather than Nevada and UNLV.

One interesting twist is that the two teams who played in the Mountain West championship game this month, Boise State and UNLV, are now set to square off at Allegiant Stadium rather than Albertsons Stadium next year. Exact dates for the Mountain West schedule will be released at a later time, but next year’s title game is slated for Saturday, December 7, 2024.

Air Force

Home – Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State, Oregon State
Away – Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, Wyoming

Boise State

Home – Nevada, San Diego State, Utah State, Washington State
Away – Hawaii, San Jose State, UNLV, Wyoming

Colorado State

Home – New Mexico, San Jose State, Utah State, Wyoming
Away – Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, Oregon State

Fresno State

Home – Colorado State, Hawaii, San Jose State, Washington State
Away – Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, UNLV

Hawaii

Home – Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, UNLV
Away – Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State, Washington State

Nevada

Home – Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State
Away – Boise State, Hawaii, San Jose State, UNLV

New Mexico

Home – Air Force, Fresno State, Wyoming, Washington State
Away – Colorado State, Hawai‘i, San Diego State, Utah State

San Diego State

Home – Air Force, Hawaii, New Mexico, Oregon State
Away – Boise State, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming

San Jose State

Home – Boise State, Nevada, UNLV, Wyoming
Away – Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State

UNLV

Home – Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, San Diego State
Away – Hawaii, San Jose State, Utah State, Oregon State

Utah State

Home – Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV
Away – Boise State, Colorado State, Wyoming, Washington State

Wyoming

Home – Air Force, Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State
Away – Colorado State, New Mexico, San Jose State, Washington State

Oregon State

Home – Colorado State, San Jose State, UNLV
Away – Air Force, Nevada, San Diego State

Washington State

Home – Hawaii, Utah State, Wyoming
Away – Boise State, Fresno State, New Mexico

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