Tag: Advanced Stats

Cowboys-Jets Advanced Stats: Dallas offense a lot better than most thought

The Cowboys and Jets face off and here’s the true tale of the tape between the two clubs. DVOA, EPA, Big-play potential and more. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Somehow, in the context of a 40-0 blowout victory, detractors looked to find something wrong with Dallas’ performance. With Dak Prescott failing to record a passing touchdown, the offense’s performance somehow got labeled as a disappointment despite scoring 27 points in limited action.

Per the tweet above, that clearly was not the case. The advanced statistics support this theory as outlined in the rest of the article below. Each week the Advanced Stats Notebook looks to gather stats and metrics that truly function as measures of team quality and then use an overview to determine which team should have the advantage. For the New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys, here’s how things shake out heading into their Week 2 matchup Sunday afternoon.

 

Here’s the honest truth preview of Cowboys-49ers

Purdy worthy of the praise? Dak a slacker or great-game stacker? We turned to @CowboysStats to answer what’s real vs what’s imagined. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Is Brock Purdy as good as his numbers say he is? Which is the real Dak Prescott; the one from Monday night or the NFL’s interception leader? Almost every conversation about this weekend’s titanic clash revolves around these digestible narratives. Those in the know, know it’s much more nuanced than the simple answer. There are eye-test anecdotes people tend to rely on; but when was their last eye exam, anyway?

No, the numbers tell a much more complete story. Analytics spit in the already-mentioned eye of the common refrain of lies, damn lies and statistics. They can’t explain what’s going to happen every time, but they certainly frame the picture of what is most likely to occur. So for this Cowboys-49ers rematch and latest chapter in an epic rivalry, it only makes sense to dive into the analytics to answer the opening two questions.

For that, we brought in the big gun. Daniel Houston, better known on Twitter by the handle CowboysStats (a must follow), lent us his insight on the fascinating QBs, their offenses and the how they intersect with each other in a detailed Q&A session.

Comparing the 2022 Cowboys to their 2021 counterparts

Both teams finished 12-5 but there’s an uneasy feeling entering the playoffs once again. A quest for the better regular season team. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys’ regular season ended with an embarrassing 26-6 loss to the Washington Commanders and now they head to Florida to face NFC South division winners Tampa Bay. Dallas’ 12-5 record was good enough to lock in the fifth seed in the playoffs and they will carry some momentum with them, winning six of their final eight games.

In 2021, the 12-5 Cowboys ended their regular season with an impressive 51-27 win against the Philadelphia Eagles as they were crowned the NFC East division champions. They finished the season winning five of their final eight games before hosting the San Francisco 49ers in the wild-card round.

It’s not easy to win 12 games in consecutive seasons, and there are parallels between the two teams worth comparing.

Top 50 NFL cornerbacks through 10 weeks in ANYA/CS metric

A look beyond the typical CB assessment of how many yards a player gives up, to give a true indication of their impact on a per-snap basis. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Adjust Net Yards per Attempt, or ANY/A, is an advanced metric formula that translates touchdowns and interceptions thrown into yardage equivalents and has a ridiculously good correlation to victory. What we did was translate the formula to coverage to better qualify how corners were playing on a per-coverage-snap basis.

Just like garbage-time stats for QBs can mislead, the same goes for the corners they are throwing on. There had to be a better way to quantify CB performance than what was out there. That led to the development of Adjust Net Yards Allowed per Coverage Snap. It takes into account several factors beyond just how many yards a corner has allowed and puts their overall performance when targeted into context.

157 cornerbacks have defended a pass in 2022. Here’s the latest update after 10 weeks of the NFL regular season. To qualify for this list, a cornerback has had to appear in at least seven contests and played at least 250 snaps in coverage.

For comparison purposes, here’s a look at the standings after Week 4, and at the end of the 2021 season.

What do the analytics say about LSU and Alabama?

Here’s how LSU matches up with the Crimson Tide, per the advanced metrics.

LSU is set to face Alabama in Tiger Stadium on Saturday night. It’s a battle of two top-15 teams that will likely decide the SEC West.

LSU came up just short in Tuscaloosa last year in a game where the defense showed up, but the offense struggled to hold up its end of the bargain. The last trip the Tide took to Baton Rouge came in 2020. An Alabama team that would go on to win the national title hung 55 on LSU.

This is Brian Kelly’s first taste of the rivalry, but he’s faced off against Nick Saban before, most recently in the playoff against that same Alabama team that scored 55 on LSU.

Here’s how the two squads compare with each other on an analytical level.

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA say about the Saints going into Week 4

What advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, and ANY/A say about the Saints going into Week 4:

We’re almost into Week 4, and things are rough for the New Orleans Saints, which is reflected in the advanced metrics you’ll find orbiting around the NFL. Whether you prefer DVOA, EPA, ANY/A, or something else entirely, we’ve got it collected for you here. Let’s see where the Saitns rank among their peers on offense, defense, and at quarterback:

Cowboys have edge in key win indicators, but can they stop WFT momentum?

WFT leads the league in third-down conversions since Wk 7 while the Cowboys are second overall in conversion defense. Who has the edge in advanced stats? | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The 8-4 Dallas Cowboys will face the 6-6 Washington Football Team in an intra-division battle with playoff implications on the line. The Cowboys will make their second consecutive road trip, following a win against the New Orleans Saints.  Currently on track for the fourth seed in the NFC, the Cowboys will want to continue to add distance from the rest of the division and a win against Washington would go a long way towards clinching a playoff spot.  The Cowboys currently have a 99.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 94.2% chance to win the division.

Their magic number to clinch the division is four.

Washington will enter Sunday riding a four-game winning streak.   With wins over the Tampa Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders, WFT has been able to find new life from a defense that struggled early in the season, and a rejuvenated running game.  WFT did receive news that defensive end Montez Sweat will miss the game due to COVID-19. This game starts their five-game stretch against NFC East opponents to close out the season.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how these two rivals measure up using DVOA, EPA, ANY/A and Toxicity. Will the Cowboys be able to move one step closer to clinching a divisional title or will WFT be able to close the gap?

Advanced Stat Notebook- Cowboys have edge in DVOA but EPA too close to call

When looking at the advanced metrics for Week 13, they favor the Cowboys but the margins are too close to call. Here’s a look at DVOA, EPA, Toxicity, ANY/A and Success Rate. From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will head to New Orleans to play the Saints on Thursday Night Football.  Entering Week 13 with a 7-4 record, the Cowboys will look to bounce back from a Thanksgiving Day overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games to the AFC West, but will now face conference opponents for the remainder of the season.  There were a lot of additions and losses this week that are worth noting:  CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Demarcus Lawrence will return from injury while Terrance Steele, Mike McCarthy and five assistant coaches will miss the game due to COVID-19.

The New Orleans Saints currently have a 5-6 record and have lost four straight games.  The Saints played on Thanksgiving as well, losing 31-6 to the Buffalo Bills. The big news for the Saints this week is that Taysom Hill has taken first team snaps at practice at quarterback and is expected to start this week.  Head coach Sean Payton has not officially announced Hill as the starter over Trevor Siemian as they are monitoring Hill’s foot injury at practice.  They are expecting Alvin Kamara to return for the Cowboys game as well.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Toxicity aside, Cowboys enjoy advanced stat edge over Raiders in Week 12

Who’s more toxic? That team from the desert might have a chance when it comes to the big play, but does Dallas win out overall? | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will host the Las Vegas Raiders Thursday afternoon as part of their annual NFL Thanksgiving showcase. The Cowboys all-time record on Thanksgiving sits at 31-21-1. Recent Thanksgiving games haven’t gone well for Dallas, with their last win happening in 2018 against the Washington Football Team.  The Cowboys and Raiders have played two times on Thanksgiving, 2009 and 2013, with Dallas winning both times.

The Cowboys enter this week with a 7-3 record after falling to the Kansas Chiefs in a 19-9 game that saw the offense struggle to move the ball consistently.  This will be the fourth and final game against the AFC West division, with the Cowboys currently holding a 1-2 record with a strong road win against the Los Angeles Chargers and two ugly losses against the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.  The Cowboys are looking for their eighth win of the season and a winning record against the AFC, after beating New England in Week 6.

Quarterback Dak Prescott will be without one of his top weapons again with Amari Cooper missing his second game due to COVID-19.  They may be without CeeDee Lamb as well after Lamb suffered a concussion on Sunday against the Chiefs.

The Raiders will travel to Dallas with a 5-5 record on the season and a three-game losing streak. Adversity has been the keyword to the Raiders season after firing their Head Coach Jon Gruden and then their two first round picks (Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette) from the 2020 draft due to off the field issues. Their offense has had difficulty scoring points as of late, averaging 14 points per game over the last three weeks.

The Cowboys and Raiders all-time record is squared up at 6-6.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.

Inside the Numbers: How advanced stats see Cowboys-Chiefs Week 11 matchup

Which team’s more toxic, explosive? Which defense more successful? Who’s better per play and when opponent strength is considered? Breaking down acronym soup. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The NFL’s Week 11 slate features a matchup of two explosive offenses as the Dallas Cowboys travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Cowboys enter the game with a 7-2 record and are coming off of an impressive, 43-3 home win against the Atlanta Falcons. The Cowboys scored on the opening possession and never looked back, putting up 431 yards of offense and winning both the turnover battle and time of possession by wide margins.

The 6-4 Chiefs had a dominant performance of their own as they beat down the Las Vegas Raiders, 41-14. Any win over a divisional opponent is a good one, but doing so in a lopsided affair, is even better. The Chiefs gained over 500 yards of total offense and won their turnover battle and time of possession as well.

With both teams coming off of highly productive weeks, this game does not lack in storylines.

Notably, quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott will play each other for the first time in their careers. Both QBs are MVP candidates and together have combined for 45 touchdown passes. Head coach Mike McCarthy and Andy Reid have plenty of experience against each other going back to playoff matchups in their previous roles with the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers.

Both teams have young linebackers who are off to terrific starts to their careers in Micah Parsons and Nick Bolton. They each feature explosive wide recievers (Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper) matched with strong tight end play by Travis Kelce and Dalton Schultz.

Let’s open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to see how both teams have performed this season using advanced analytics. Here’s a review of four key metrics to see if DVOA, ANY/A, Toxicity and EPA give the Cowboys reasons to feel confident about picking up win No. 8 on the season.