2024 fantasy football – Page 9

Alvin Kamara ends contract stalemate and reports to camp

Kamara’s short-lived contract dispute appears to be a thing of the past.

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara reported for the start of training camp despite his frustration over his contract situation, according to sources.

SOURCE: NewOrleans.Football – Nick Underhill

Fantasy football advice: Kamara skipped some of the team’s mandatory minicamp practices, but it appears there will be no drama for now regarding his contract. The bigger question for Kamara is how much work he will lose to 2023 draft pick Kendre Miller in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s scheme. Kamara’s passing game role should remain a key part of the offense, so fantasy managers can feel relatively good about his ability to deliver at a RB2 level.

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LA Rams agree to financially reward Matthew Stafford

No. 9 gets increased financial security for the upcoming year.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has reportedly “worked something out” with the team regarding his contract and will report to training camp, as expected, on Tuesday, July 23. Stafford was seeking a pay raise in light of the explosion in salaries at the quarterback position in recent months.

SOURCE: The Athletic – Jourdan Rodrigue

Fantasy football advice: There is no word yet on the details, but it seems reasonable that Stafford will join the $50 million-per-season club at quarterback. Few QBs closed out last season better than Stafford, who averaged 284 yards passing and threw for 15 touchdowns versus only three interceptions over his final six games. The 35-year-old has never been much of a threat with his legs, but he could still push for low-end QB1 numbers in what should easily be a top-10 offense in 2024.

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Amari Cooper reports to Browns training camp after reworking deal

Cleveland ponied up to secure Cooper’s contract for 2024.

Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper reported to the start of training camp after the team handed him a $5 million raise and guaranteed his original base salary of $20 million on Tuesday, July 23.

SOURCE: The Cleveland Plain Dealer – Mary Kay Cabot

Fantasy football advice: Cooper has been a durable and strong WR2 fantasy asset virtually every season since joining the NFL in 2015. His production was a bit more inconsistent last season as Cleveland rotated through multiple quarterbacks, but managers witnessed the kind of upside he possesses when he burned the Houston Texans for 265 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16 last year. Assuming Deshaun Watson can stay healthy and regain form in 2024, Cooper should finish as a top-15 fantasy receiver.

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Sorting through all that is the Kansas City Chiefs receiving corps

Making fantasy football sense of this deep but unsettled cast of wideouts.

One of the more remarkable aspects of the Kansas City Chiefs winning back-to-back Super Bowls is that the team hasn’t had a wide receiver reach the 1,000-yard mark since they traded Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins before the 2022 season. That year, JuJu Smith-Schuster, now with the New England Patriots, led the club with 933; last year it was Rashee Rice (938). Beyond that, only current Buffalo Bills WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling has even topped 500 yards the past two years.

Kansas City’s struggles at the position haven’t been from a lack of effort as they’ve used premium picks on Rice, Skyy Moore, and Xavier Worthy, signed veteran free agents (Smith-Schuster and Marquise Brown), and traded for Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman. On paper, this year’s group looks the best it has since Hill was traded with a deep mix of talent around quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

What does that mean for fantasy owners? Let’s dive in.

Assessing Houston Texans RBs in fantasy football

Is it exclusively “The Joe Mixon Show” in Houston?

The Houston Texans have been a revolving door at running back in recent years with a different leading rusher each of the last six seasons. If the coaches get what they expect out of veteran free-agent signee Joe Mixon, said streak will continue for a seventh straight year.

With the moves made in this offseason, Houston is looking to fast-track a rise in the AFC and is putting a lot of money into players like Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs to give quarterback C.J. Stroud as many weapons as possible.

Former starter Dameon Pierce is looking to reclaim his career after a meteoric rise in 2022 and just as sharp a decline in 2023.

7/21 update: RB Cam Akers was signed after this analysis went live. He’s coming off another torn Achilles tendon — this time his right one — which was suffered in Week 9 last season. Akers has participated in on-field training camp work, and he’s expected to compete for a roster spot. In best-case scenario, he unseats Pierce as the No. 2 back. We’ll closely monitor this situation during training camp.

Fantasy football injury round-up: July edition

Checking in on key fantasy football injuries from around the NFL.

Keeping up with injuries entering the fantasy football draft season is tremendously important. While it may be a tad early yet, gamers should follow along to avoid any potential mishaps. At a minimum, it never hurts to stay in the know, even if you don’t typically draft until August or September.

The most notable names from the traditional pool of skill players are in focus below, in addition to some peripheral considerations. We’ll monitor their statuses throughout the summer and advise accordingly.

Is Pat Freiermuth a hidden gem in this year’s fantasy drafts?

Much potentially aligns for Freiermuth to produce top-flight TE numbers.

Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth is looking for a rebound season after a disappointing backward step last year as the Steelers offense sputtered. As a rookie in 2021 with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, Freiermuth had a very productive season, catching 60 passes for 497 yards and seven touchdowns, quickly establishing himself as a presence in the red zone.

He followed up his rookie year with more catches (63) and yards (732) in 2022 but caught only two touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s scoring offense struggled as Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky combined to throw just 11 touchdowns. The passing offense bottomed out last season as Pickett and Mason Rudolph combined for just 2,789 aerial yards and a woeful nine touchdown passes.

That lack of production translated to all receivers, but Freiermuth was as adversely impacted as any skill position player on the roster. Freiermuth missed five due to injury; he caught just 32 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns in 12 appearancs. He had just one game with more than three receptions, one outing with more than 44 receiving yards, eight contests with 21 or fewer receiving yards, and didn’t score a touchdown after Week 3.

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By any measure, the last two years have been a disaster for the Steelers’ passing game. The hope is that the arrival of quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields will bring the offense back to the level it was when Roethlisberger was at the wheel.

It was clear that the Pickett experiment didn’t work. Will things change with Wilson and Fields? If they do, Freiermuth’s value will jump sharply.

Fantasy football outlook

If you’re looking to invest in Freiermuth, the downturn in his production in 2023 will need to be ignored, because the playing field has been tilted with the arrival of Wilson and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The latter’s history in Atlanta was to lean on the running game. That benefits tight ends that can block, because they’re on the field for more snaps, and you can’t score fantasy points from the sideline. Furthermore, Smith is a former TEs coach whose system has at least attempted to incorporate the position in past settings.

Freiermuth had 60 or more receptions in each of his first two seasons and was one of the more consistent fantasy tight ends on a weekly basis. If last season was an aberration, he could be a value pick.

A compelling factor to believe that Freiermuth’s production will return to pre-2023 level is that Diontae Johnson was traded to Carolina in the offseason and Allen Robinson was cut. Those receptions need to be made up by somebody and Freiermuth, who is in a contract year, will be motivated to be a big part of filling that void in an offense with more questions than answers at wide receiver.

Freiermuth currently has an ADP in the TE13-15 range. That would make him a priority No. 2 in 12-team fantasy leagues. He would be an ideal complement in tight end-mandatory leagues for someone who opts not make a significant early investment of the position or those looking to wait and gamble on a rebound.

If Freiermuth can get back to catch 60 passes for 600 yards and a handful of touchdowns, he will be a value pick for any tight end tandem.

Examining the New York Jets receiving corps

After Garrett Wilson, is there any value to be found here?

The Titanic. The Hindenburg. The 2023 New York Jets. It’s fair to ask which of these events were the biggest disaster, but make no mistake, they all qualify for that designation. Amid massive hype, which included a turn on HBO’s Hard Knocks and a schedule loaded with primetime games, the Jets saw their season go up in flames after just four snaps when quarterback Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon.

Sans Rodgers, the Jets trotted out the lackluster trio of QBs Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian. None return. Wilson, the former No. 2 overall pick, was traded to the Denver Broncos before the draft. Boyle was waived last year and is currently on the Houston Texans. Siemian remains unsigned. Veteran Tyrod Taylor now sits behind Rodgers on the depth chart.

While the quarterback situation makes it tough to read much into last year’s numbers, the struggles of wide receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb convinced the team more was needed at the position. To that end, the club signed Mike Williams (Los Angeles Chargers) and drafted Malachi Corley. With Rodgers back under center, let’s look at what we can expect from the Jets receivers in 2024.

2024 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because two to four wideouts and a tight end are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2023 and 2024 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2024 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.

This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Running Backs

Best schedule swings

Drake London, Kyle Pitts (ATL) – This is all good news for a franchise that was among the worst in passing for the last couple of seasons. Refreshing with Kirk Cousins, a new pass-intensive scheme and now the most improved schedule from 2023 and it all is looking up for the Falcons.

Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen (CAR) – Bryce Young was the first player drafted in 2023, but he had little help in any direction for a franchise that owned a minimal amount of passing weapons, a one-year offensive scheme that flopped and a bad schedule. A new set of coaches, upgrades with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, and a vastly upgraded schedule should all make a positive difference and get the Panthers’ passing offense on track.

DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze (CHI) – The Bears already have an embarrassment of riches with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. They drafted the top quarterback in the 2024 class and get a nice improvement in schedule. The only downside here is trying to feed all those options.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta (DET) – The Lions already had one of the best passing offenses and now enjoy a solid rise in outlook with the No. 3 best schedule for receivers. With the offense already dedicated to piling up the receptions for St. Brown and LaPorta, the schedule only serves to make them even more reliable.

Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku (CLE) – The Browns offense needed a break and 2024 should allow the receivers to meet their potential with Deshaun Watson healthy and well-versed in the offense and the schedule finally well above average.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride (ARI) – The rookie Harrison and McBride already look like locks for a high volume of targets and they get a healthy Kyler Murray back. Throw in one of the top schedules after only average in 2023, and the needle is pointing up for the Arizona receivers this year.

About the same schedule strength

The bad news is that the Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins, and Broncos all repeat their ultra-tough schedule strengths from 2023. Can they remain better than their schedule?

Worst schedule swings

Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) – The Giants were already challenged with yet another shaky year of Daniel Jones and now the schedule is working against them. It is enough to drop Nabers another tick and hope he can survive a tough rookie campaign.

Quentin Johnson, Joshua Palmer (LAC) – The Chargers already swapped out coaches and dedicate their offense to running the ball more. And they stripped out all veteran talent from the wideouts. And they rely on what appears to be one of the weakest receiver units in the NFL. And now their receivers get to go against the worst schedule. Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, but everything with the 2023 Chargers screams that a down year is about to happen.

Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce (KC) – This is less worrisome with an upgraded set of receivers and Patrick Mahomes playing in the same pass-happy scheme. If any team can weather a bad schedule swing, it is the Chiefs.

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (TB) – The Buccaneers take a dive down from their previous No. 5 schedule strength for receivers but their scheme has a huge portion of the targets funnel through Evans and Godwin. They may not equal last year, but shouldn’t fall far thanks to volume alone.

Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Nacua blew up with a historic rookie season and Kupp is always dangerous weapon when healthy. This slide doesn’t help but the duo is one of the best in the league. They should still deliver even with the increased competition.

What can New Orleans Saints running backs offer fantasy gamers?

Evaluating the fantasy football prospects from the New Orleans backfield.

When the New Orleans Saints were at their best, they featured a one-two punch in their backfield of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. In recent years, the franchise has tried to recreate their dynamic, albeit without much success. Initially, they tried reuniting with Ingram, but his best days were behind him. Last year, they signed running back Jamaal Williams in free agency, and then selected Kendre Miller with the 71st overall pick.

As a blueprint, it was easy to follow. Reduce Kamara’s workload by adding a veteran that just led the NFL in rushing touchdowns while bringing along a talented young back with limited snaps to learn the ropes. It didn’t work out. Kamara received a three-game suspension for an off-field incident, Miller was dogged by injuries, and Williams struggled. The result was a rushing offense that ranked 21st in yards (102.5 YPG), 18th in TDs (13), and tied for 30th in YPC (3.6).

Rather than blow things up, the Saints will run it back with the same top three. Will they get better results in 2024? Let’s look at this backfield and what it can do for fantasy owners.