2024 fantasy football – Page 14

What to expect from Arizona Cardinals running backs

Will James Conner fend off a rookie challenger? Is there room for two?

During a season in which the Arizona Cardinals struggled in most areas while stumbling to a 4-13 record, the team was among the league’s best on the ground, finishing fourth in rushing (139.1 yards per game) and second in yards per carry (5.0). The presence of athletic QBs Kyler Murray and Joshua Dobbs (now with the San Francisco 49ers) helped, but it’s still encouraging that they accomplished that with few names you’d recognize beyond running back James Conner.

How much of a team effort was it? Consider this: Conner rushed for 1,040 yards last season, but nobody else on the Cardinals reached the 300-yard mark. It shouldn’t be a surprise then that Arizona used a third-round pick on RB Trey Benson to raise the talent level in the running back room. He’ll team with Conner atop the depth chart while holdovers Emari Demercado and Michael Carter try to lock down the No. 3 spot. Here’s a look at where Arizona’s backfield stands heading into the new season.

Fantasy football outlook: Seattle Seahawks wide receivers

Will there be a changing of the guard among Seattle’s receivers in 2024?

For the last five years, the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver corps has been the combination of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and little else in the way of a backup band. That scenario changed (somewhat) when the team used the 20th pick in the 2023 draft on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who flashed big-play ability but was clearly the third wheel. With a new coaching staff and a different philosophy after an eternity with Pete Carroll, there is going to be more competition for targets this year than there has been for a long time in Seattle as everyone tries to lock down his spot in the offense.

Better than average: Running Backs

Which running backs fared the best against each NFL defense?

Given the proliferation of committee backfields, each NFL defense usually faces two or three running backs each game. Turning in one of the best eight games allowed by a defense is an elite performance.

The “Better than Average” (BTA) score is a weighting of those games.

Better than average:
Quarterbacks |Wide receivers | Tight ends

Bottom line: This is a true measurement of how productive a running back was when schedule influences are removed. It compares them to other backs that faced that same defense. If a player rates higher here than they did with 2023 fantasy points, it means they were limited by a schedule and are better than their last year’s stats suggest.

The position declined in perceived value for NFL teams but they still crank out plenty of fantasy-relevant stats each week and a top player offers consistency that rivals a player that is still taken very highly in fantasy drafts.

But the Top-5 in this metric last year were Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones – none of them repeating for 2023. It shows the volatility in the position and how those monster performances rise and fall dramatically the following year. On a winning fantasy team, you need difference-makers who can blow up in multiple games.

This highlights what a surprise that Breece Hall, Kyren Williams and Rachaad White were. And how this is a position where youth is a very good thing. It also shows what a disappointment Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor were though all three are still hot properties in fantasy drafts this summer.

This is fascinating. The only running backs that managed to log more than one top game against a defense were led by Christian McCaffrey – no surprise. But the other four were all in the second year of their career.

Yes indeed. Youth be served in the backfields of the current NFL.

Better than average: Quarterbacks

Which QBs were the best against a particular defense?

Each NFL team uses just one quarterback per game (ideally) and the incidence of producing one of the best eight games allowed by a defense is less difficult than the other fantasy positions that employ several players in the same position per game.

Below shows how often a player logged the best game allowed by a secondary (Top-1), one of the four best performances allowed (Top-4), and one of the best eight performances (Top-8). With 17 games played, a Top-8 game is “above average” among the best quarterbacks from each opponent. Notable too is that players only face 14 teams per year, three division mates are played twice and cannot give them more than one “Top-1.”

The “Better than Average” (BTA) score is a weighting of those games.

See Also: Better than average
Running backs | Wide receivers | Tight ends

Bottom line: This is a true measurement of how productive a quarterback once the schedule influences are removed. It compares them to other quarterbacks that faced that same defense. If a player rates higher here than they did with 2023 fantasy points, it means they were limited by a schedule and are better than their last year’s stats suggest.

A high number of Top-8 performances indicate the consistency of their big games. A dozen quarterbacks turned more than half of their games as one of the eight best performances versus a defense. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were the true leaders in the metric and both were Top-3 in 2023.

Patrick Mahomes fell dramatically in this ranking because he only once managed to post the most points that a defense allowed, and yet was still solid with nine games of Top-8 performances. He just failed to produce those big games we were used to and rated No. 1 last year after producing a position-leading seven No. 1’s in 2022.

C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love were newcomers to the ranking and remember that Stroud missed two games in his rookie season. He obviously already belongs in the elite tier.

This is the list of quarterbacks that posted the best fantasy game allowed by an opposing defense all year for 2023.

Stroud again impresses, tying Jackson for the NFL-best three games where they posted the most fantasy points that defense allowed last season. Interesting too is that Sam Howell and Joshua Dobbs were in this elite grouping and yet are both backups for different teams this year.

Better than average: Wide Receivers

Small group of wideouts that were tops against secondaries and most are changing for 2023

Every NFL team will rely on at least two, and usually three, wide receivers each game, so logging one of the best eight performances allowed by a secondary is a significant feat. There were 2,207 instances of a wide receiver catching at least one pass in a game. That averages out with each secondary defending around 69 wide receivers each year. So, a Top-8 performance against a defense puts the receiver in the top 12% of receivers that they defended. Being the top performer versus a secondary for the year is being the best of the 69 wideouts they would have covered over 17 games.

Below will show how often a player logged the best game allowed by a secondary (Top-1), one of the four best performances allowed (Top-4), and one of the best eight performances (Top-8). With 17 games played, a Top-8 game is “above average” among the best wideouts from each opponent.

The “Better than Average” (BTA) score is a weighting of those games.

See Also: Better than average
Quarterbacks | Running backs | Tight ends

Bottom line: This is a true measurement of how effective wideouts were when schedule influences are removed. It compares them to other wideouts that faced that same defense. If a player rates higher here than they did with 2023 fantasy points, it means they were limited by a schedule and are better than their last year’s stats suggest.

There were only four wideouts who logged a Top-8 performance against a defense in most of their games. Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Puka Nacua have more than eight such games last year. Those are also at the top of the stats last year. Some players that show up well in this measurement over their season stats are Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, George Pickens and Tank Dell. Those who come off worse in this measurement than their stats rank are DJ Moore, Brandon Aiyuk, and Michael Pittman.

A Top-4 performance is impressive and only six players managed to post at least five of them. Keenan Allen and Mike Evans both had four monster games against specific defenses.

Of the 32 instances of a defense giving up the most fantasy points to an opposing wideout, eight wideouts managed at least two. That’s up form last year when only three receivers managed the trick and were Justin Jefferson (6), Davante Adams (4), and Cooper Kupp (2). Only Adams repeated this year though injuries impacted Adams and Jefferson.

Keenan Allen was a slight surprise, but benefitted from the Chargers losing Mike Williams which boosted his targe share significantly. For a rookie, Nacua remained in elite company in these metrics.

Fantasy football injury round-up: June edition

Checking in on key fantasy football injuries from around the NFL.

Keeping up with injuries entering the fantasy football draft season is tremendously important. While it may be early yet, gamers should follow along to avoid any potential mishaps. At a minimum, it never hurts to stay in the know, even if you don’t typically draft until August or September.

The most notable names from the traditional pool of skill players are in focus below. We’ll monitor their statuses throughout the summer and advise accordingly.

The best fantasy football value buys for 2024

Fantasy football draft bargains to target in 2024 leagues.

Everyone playing fantasy football should be looking to land optimal value with each pick, but anyone with experience knows that actually isn’t as common as it may seem. We all have our favorites for whom we’re willing to reach, which tends to drive down the draft stock of other players. As a result, we see trends that produce undervalued fantasy football picks.

In this release, undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts. The following players represent the best bang for your buck in relation to their average draft placement (ADP).

2024 Fantasy football value buys

The top fantasy football sleepers and fliers for 2024

The top fantasy football sleepers and late-round fliers for 2024.

In this release, my favorite sleepers and deep sleepers (late-round fliers) will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts.

The Huddle’s official sleepers will come from the fingertips of David Dorey, and mine also will be updated along the way.

Any player listed has an elevated chance of exceeding expectations, but that doesn’t automatically make them all a lock to dominate. Going from being rarely drafted to potentially producing lineup-worthy results fits the bill, too.

2024 fantasy football sleepers and fliers

Fantasy football’s top breakout candidates for 2024

Look for these players to step up in a major way this season.

Several of these players could cross over into the realm of being fantasy football sleepers. For the most part, each name has somewhat established himself as an up-and-coming fantasy football commodity. They’re now on the verge of going big.

The following is listed from least to most likely to break out in 2024.

2024 fantasy football breakout candidates

2024 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

Know which player pitfalls to avoid in 2024 fantasy football drafts.

It’s rare that an otherwise consistently selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some recognizable names just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters. Fantasy football gamers also need to be aware of players who are going much earlier than warranted.

“Bust” is a loaded term that isn’t entirely fair, nor is it an accurate reflection of a player’s risk. Furthermore, it’s tough to find a consensus definition. Can an injury create a bust? Is it only a bust situation if the player goes up in flames without an injury? Both? Are busts only early-round selections? You get the point. Regardless of how one defines it, the term is far from perfect.

This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches. Therefore, we’ll focus on “overvalued” and “bust potential” in this space. Just because a player appears in this list, it doesn’t automatically mean he will be a total flop, but the players in question certainly have elevated risk of failure. All players are ordered from least to most concern of failure.