Can this deep receiving corps live up to its potential in fantasy?
Probably the most unexpected success story of 2023 was the meteoric rise of the Houston Texans, which went from winning three games in 2022 to going 10-7 and capturing the AFC South banner. The biggest factor in the rapid turnaround was the arrival of quarterback C.J. Stroud, who would win NFL Rookie of the Year behind a stat line that included 4,108 yards passing and 23 touchdowns against just five interceptions.
What made that performance even more impressive was the lack of established talent on the outside with wide receivers Nico Collins, Noah Brown and Robert Woods atop the depth chart heading into last season. Collins was the breakout star, and he also was the only player on the team to top 750 yards. Then-rookie WR Tank Dell also looked like a legit NFL player, and he almost certainly would’ve broken the 1,000-yard mark as well had he not suffered a leg injury in early December.
Even with two young studs coming back, the Texans made a move to bring in Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills, giving them an established frontline receiver to pair with Collins and Dell. Between those three and tight end Dalton Schultz, Stroud has a deep collection of options. There’s only one football, though, so can the second-year signal caller keep everyone fed? And what does it all mean for fantasy owners? Let’s dive in.
Running through the fantasy pros and cons of Washington’s backfield.
The Washington Commanders offense is undergoing a seismic shift with the drafting of Jayden Daniels to be their franchise player. However, every young quarterback needs a running game to prevent defenses from being in “Shark Week” mode and attacking on every snap.
Brian Robinson Jr. has made the most of his opportunity, and new head coach Dan Quinn has talked a big game about his ability. However, the arrival of Austin Ekeler (and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury) point to a change in philosophy. Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols have a good view of the show but won’t be part of it, barring catastrophe.
Trying to make sense of all that is the Green Bay receiving corps.
The Green Bay Packers have one of the most complex fantasy football wide receiver rooms as any team in the league. Their 2024 salaries combined are just $11.5 million, but the Packers had surprising production with a group approach that included rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks and second-year players Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. At one point or another, each player was the go-to receiver for Jordan Love, but none of them sustained it over the course of the season, making all of them have slowly descending value with none of them viewed as a dominant fantasy starter.
Offensive line play is like a symphony playing in the middle of a riot
The importance of a cohesive, capable set of blockers is impossible to overvalue. And yet, they incur a high rate of injury, and the shifting of blockers in and out of the lineup is usually unnoticed despite the significant bearing on success. Unlike every other offensive player, their job is to engage the defense, not try to avoid them.
O-lines deal with injuries, new coaches and schemes, depth chart moves, schedule challenges and the effects of when new quarterbacks and running backs are used. Every play is like conducting a symphony in the middle of a riot.
This 2024 ranking may vary from others out there, but it was created with fantasy football production in mind. It considers how offensive lines performed in fantasy-related metrics, what losses and gains occurred in the offseason, and then how changes to team dynamics likely impact their blocking.
Offensive lines, like any other segment of the roster, are sensitive to the impact that injuries create. But at least starting out, here are how they rate heading into the 2024 NFL season.
1. Detroit Lions
The Lions have invested heavily in their offensive line for several years, and the blockers remain a major asset to the offense. Pro Bowlers T Penei Sewell and C Frank Ragnow return and they added two depth players in the middle rounds of the NFL draft. They lost G Jonah Jackson to the Rams but signed the Raven’s G Kevin Zeitler to a one-year deal for $6M to replace him. Even an average fantasy prospect gets a boost while playing with this offensive line.
2. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts sport one of the best offensive lines and their statistics prove it. Pro Bowlers G Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly return to a mature offensive line that had no notable losses this season. They did not need to spend money in free agency but still spent a third and fourth-round pick on line depth. This is an elite unit that enjoys continuity from last year.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles had the No. 1 offensive line entering 2023 and the group delivered. Pro Bowlers T Lane Johnson and G Landon Dickerson return while the only loss was Jason Kelce which ends his 12 years as an elite center. They picked up a couple of late round guards in the draft. This remains a stellar offensive line but moving Cam Jurgens over to center is a downgrade from the certain Hall-of-Famer Kelce, but the Eagles also upgraded the backfield with Saquon Barkley who will make the run blocking look even better. Kelce may be gone, but the Eagles have been the standard for blocking excellence for the last few years.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The reigning Superbowl Champs were aided by their offensive line which rated from solid to outstanding. Patrick Mahomes had a major bearing on line ratings, given that he was only sacked 28 times to rank No. 2 in the NFL, and yet all that scrambling around searching unsuccessfully for the ghost of Tyreek Hill meant that he incurred more pressure than most quarterbacks. The Chiefs sent G Joe Thuney and C Creed Humphrey to the Pro Bowl but lost G Nick Allegretti to the Commanders. They added T Kingsley Suamataia from BYU with their second-round pick and two more linemen later in the draft. The O-line returns almost intact and should again provide Mahomes with a clean pocket and open lanes for Isaiah Pacheco.
5. Cleveland Browns
Their offensive line was elite for many seasons but 2023 was tough thanks to rampant injuries including season-enders for three starters. Throw in Nick Chubb’s exit in Week 2 and Deshaun Watson missing 11 games and even keeping Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, and Wyatt Teller on the field wasn’t enough to replicate prior offensive success. Bitonio and Teller went to the Pro Bowl and the Browns grabbed G Zak Zinter from Michigan in the third round as depth. Otherwise, there were no notable additions or losses, and the season depends on how well their tackles Jedrick Willis Jr. (MCL), Dawand Jones (MCL), and Jack Conklin (ACL) return from their 2023 injuries.
6. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been solid across the offensive line and while their stats were mostly moderate, that’s more due to HC Arthur Smith and QB Desmond Ridder who are both gone. The O-line returns all starters and have Kirk Cousins as a far bigger threat than Ridder. The change in offensive scheme and upgrade at quarterback should benefit from the continuity here. The Falcons had no notable additions, losses or draft picks for the O-line. Pro Bowler Chris Lindstrom is arguably the best run-blocker in the league.
7. Los Angeles Rams
This unit was one of the lowest-rated O-lines entering last season and they had been Bottom-5 in nearly every metric coming off 2022. Their post-Superbowl collapse was largely due to extensive injuries over the offense and they lost LT Andrew Whitworth to retirement. But the Rams O-line came back together far faster and better than anyone imagined. The only player movement was losing C Coleman Shelton but picking up the Lions’ G Jonah Jackson for a three-year, $51M deal. They added a couple of linemen deep in the draft but this unit returns intact with the upgrade in Jackson who needs to stay healthy. There is some reshuffling, but this surprising group from 2023 looks to return just as capable.
8. Miami Dolphins
The Fins saw their offensive line improve in both years with HC Mike McDaniel at the helm. They added LT Terron Armstead and jumped up in all pass-blocking metrics except for the percentage of pressures. Last year, they solved that problem with the No. 3 pressure rate (17%), up from 27%. They brought in C Aaron Brewer (three-year, $21M) from the Titans but lost G Robert Hunt to the Panthers. Miami drafted T Patrick Paul with their 2.23 pick to help address the loss. They still lagged in negative runs, but the rest of the metrics were stellar.
9. Buffalo Bills
The offensive line measurements were all good in 2023, and reflective of blocking for one of the best mobile quarterbacks in the league. The Bills allowed fewer sacks than any other team and were above average in run blocking. T Dion Dawkins went to the Pro Bowl but C Mitch Morse left for the Jaguars. The only moves the Bills made for the O-line was to add three rookies deep in the NFL draft. There is continuity from last year excluding Morse, but there is a lack of depth which will be problematic if injuries start to pile up.
10. San Francisco 49ers
The blocking metrics were all good last year, and Christian McCaffrey enjoyed the No. 2 yards before contact when he ran. The results were similar to those in 2022, and they corrected a problem with negative runs. The 49ers did nothing in the free agent market for losses or gains but spent their 3.22 pick on T Dominick Puni from Kansas, along with a late-draft guard for depth. LT Trent Williams went to another Pro Bowl and continues to defy age at 35 years old. The 49ers sport a Top-10 unit each year and Christian McCaffrey probably helps them to look a bit better than they are. The blocking remains an asset to the offense, but there’s no reason to expect improvement.
11. Green Bay Packers
A top line from 2023 when they excelled at pass defense, the Packers will have to process change from losing G Jon Runyan and T Yosh Nijman, and releasing long-time star tackle David Bakhtiari while not picking up any new notable free agents. But they did spend their first-round pick on T Jordan Morgan and picked up a center and tackle later in the draft. The backfield already changed with Aaron Jones gone and Josh Jacobs new to the team. The Packers have enough depth and versatility in their blockers that they can weather a few injuries.
12. Houston Texans
As usual, T Larry Tunsil went to the Pro Bowl and the line play showed improvement, at least until injuries took out three of the five starters. RT George Fant left for the Seahawks and while they did not add anyone notable from free agents, they drafted T Blake Fisher from Notre Dame with their 2.27 pick and grabbed another tackle at the end of the draft. While the run-blocking stats suffered last year with Devin Singletary, the Texans upgraded to Joe Mixon. And the impact of C.J. Stroud cannot be overstated. Given their injuries, the offensive line played well and they enter 2024 with solid depth and the hope they can avoid a second season of injuries. The offense continues to develop and the line is no longer a liability.
13. New York Jets
The pass blocking stats were among the worst last year and that stemmed from injuries and spending the season protecting Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle. This unit was average on run blocking but defenses loaded up on Breece Hall once they realized the Jets didn’t have a quarterback. This should be a much-improved offensive line for 2024. The Jets acquired LT Tyron Smith (one-year, $6.5M) and G Jon Runyan (three-year, $30M). They spent their 1.11 pick on T Olu Fashanu from Penn State. Add in a healthy (fingers crossed) Aaron Rodgers and the offensive output – and blocking – should push the blocking to at least average if not better.
14. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals’ offensive line was above average in pass blocking prior to last season but had been poor at run blocking. They improved yards per carry incrementally last year but dropped in sacks allowed. Cincinnati lost T Jonah Williams to the Cardinals but picked up RT Trenton Brown (one-year, $4.75M) from the Patriots. Most notably, they spent their first-round pick on T Amarius Mims out of Georgia. This mature offense must protect the occasionally fragile Joe Burrow when he passes. The upgrades in 2023 helped and there is continuity from last year other than swapping out Jonah Williams for Trenton Brown. The rookie Mims can season as a rookie unless injuries press him into heavy use.
15. Baltimore Ravens
Things have changed. The Ravens were always run-heavy until OC Todd Monken showed up last year. They were still a formidable run-blocking unit with top marks in 2023. But the offense throws more passes and Derrick Henry arrives to end the need for a committee backfield. Starters G John Simpson and G Kevin Zeitler left in free agency. They traded away RT Morgan Moses to the Jets. The Ravens used their second-round pick on RT Roger Rosengarten to address that hole and the line will be reshuffled. Pro Bowler C Tyler Linderbaum is still there. But this line is in transition along with the offensive scheme and is not, at least for now, the same elite unit of recent seasons.
16. Las Vegas Raiders
The run blocking was below average last year after rating No. 5 in yards per carry (4.8) in 2022 and Josh Jacobs left for the Packers this season. But the pass blocking was better than expected, especially considering that the Raiders spun through Aidan O’Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer at quarterback. RT Jermain Eluemunor and G Greg Van Roten both left but no free agents were added. They spent a 2.12 on C Jackson Powers-Johnson from Oregon and a 3.13 on T Demar Glaze out of Maryland. This first year of new OC Luke Getsy starts out with a worse backfield and quarterback, and they need the rookie Powers-Johnson to step up into the starting rotation likely as a guard.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers run defense has been a mess for a few seasons, even falling to an NFL-worst 1.8 yards-rushed before contact. The metrics for pass blocking have been mostly average. With the offseason upheaval, now HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman will be changing the offense and have a stated intent to run the ball more often and better than they did when Austin Ekeler was the primary rusher. The Bolts did nothing in free agency but lost no one notable. The only difference-making change was spending their 1.05 pick on T Joe Alt from Notre Dame as the first lineman drafted this year. He’ll get plugged in on the right side at least for now. LT Rashawn Slater was stellar in 2021 but tore his biceps in 2022 after just three games. He wasn’t nearly as effective last season. It is an all-new scheme with a new backfield imported from Baltimore by OC Greg Roman, and the two long-time star receivers are gone. If the rookie Alt meets expectations and Slater can return to form, this unit will improve, but until that is seen, they are more likely to remain average at best.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers pass blocking rated highly in 2022 and it was credited in part to the quick release of Tom Brad. The run blocking was arguably the worst however, and then repeated that in 2023 when they were dead last in yards per carry. But – the pass blocking measurements remained good even with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. T Tristan Wirfs went to the Pro Bowl and the Buccaneers added G Ben Bredeson (one-year, $3M) while losing no one notable. They also spent their first-round pick on T Graham Barton from Duke, who will likely become the new center. And with minimal changes, the run blocking is expected to again be among the worst in the league but the pass blocking should hold up well for Mayfield.
19. Dallas Cowboys
The salary cap situation in Dallas is already dire with looming mega-dollar contracts for CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons. That’s already led to losing C Tyler Biadasz to the Commanders and LT Tyrion Smith to the Jets without acquiring any free agents to replace them. The Cowboys selected T Tyler Guyton with their 1.29 pick and another guard in the third round. The line had already turned average in 2022, and last season ranked poorly in run blocking for the first time in many years. They dropped below 4.0 yards per carry and were Bottom-5 in rush yards before contact. The Cowboys should incur further decline for 2024.
20. Chicago Bears
The Bears were slightly better than average while run blocking last year but they fell around Bottom-5 in pass-blocking metrics. They spent big in 2022 acquiring RG Nate Davis and drafting RT Darnell Washington with their 1.10 pick. This season, they added G Coleman Shelton (one-year, $3M) from the Rams and drafted a third-round tackle for depth. The Bears had the worst pass-blocking metrics in 2022 with the highest sack rate and only marginally improved in 2023. Injuries hit the O-line last year, and the offensive dynamics are sure to change with a new offense under OC Shane Waldrop from Seattle and of course the No.1 pick in the draft of quarterback Caleb Williams. The change from Justin Fields to Williams is hoped to be a game changer and that can only help the blockers. It may take time to come together amidst the scheme and personnel changes, but continuity from last year should at least keep this unit average.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars offensive line rated well in 2022, with Top-10 marks in blocking metrics other than the surprising No. 32 in negative runs. The second season for HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor was a disappointment in many ways with the offensive line as one of the weakest spots. They managed to remain an above-average set of pass blockers, but the rushing stats all declined to among the worst in the league. The positive was spending on C Mitch Morse (two-year-$10.5M) and they picked up a fourth-round tackle in the draft. Talent may lift them to being average but the run-blocking has to rise from the bottom of the barrel.
22. New Orleans Saints
The Saints’ pass-blocking was solid for the last few years, with Top-10 ranks for pass blocking metrics and Top-5 marks for negative runs. But run blocking has been among the worst. They’ve remained in the Bottom-4 in yards per carry and yards before contact the last two seasons. They did not lose or acquire any free agents, but spent a 1.14 pick on T Taliese Fuaga from Oregon State. RT Ryan Ramczyk is no lock to play this year thanks to knee issues, so adding Fuaga may be just a wash (but a prudent draft pick). The Saints have two seasons of nearly the same blocking metrics and there is no reason to expect any significant improvement for 2024.
23. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers’ offensive line was a mess in 2023 and HC Frank Reich never the offense got on track. This should be a vastly better line for 2024, though the bar is low after last year’s disaster when the Panthers ranked Bottom-5 in nearly all blocking metrics. But they spent the big bucks in free agency trying for a quick turn-around for new HC Dave Canales. The Panthers grabbed Miami’s G Robert Hunt (five-year, $100M) as the top player available and added G Damien Lewis (four-year, $53M) from the Seahawks. They also added T Yosh Nijman (two-year, $8M). The improvement will take some time to come together as they all learn the new offense, but the Panthers have invested in their offensive line.
24. Seattle Seahawks
After several seasons with a solid run blocking and yet weak pass blockers, the Seahawks saw improvement in 2023 when they managed a Top-10 in sacks allowed and sack rate. The interior of the line will be recast after losing C Evan Brown and G Damien Lewis but they signed RT George Fant (two-years, $9.1M) and drafted guards in the third and sixth rounds. There’s a new offensive scheme installed by OC Ryan Grubb but almost all other offensive starters return for 2024. Seattle was still Bottom-8 in pass pressures, but that was more related to the injuries of offensive tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers
In 2022, the Steelers ‘ pass protection was at least average if not better. But their run-blocking was a liability. That changed last season when both yards per carry and sacked allowed were Top-10. They had brought in two new guards and drafted LT Broderick Jones with their first-round pick. This year, they again used their first-round pick and grabbed T Troy Fautanu and then T Zach Frazier in the second round. The offense already gets a makeover with new OC Arthur Smith but will rely on either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields at quarterback and both were recent problems with sacks and holding the ball too long on their 2023 teams. The investment was made in this unit, but it hasn’t yet become an asset.
26. Minnesota Vikings
For the second year in a row, the Vikings did nearly nothing for their offensive line but did not lose anyone notable. They produced average run-blocking metrics and below average in pass blocking, logging a No. 29 ranking in percentage of pressures when passing. That’s partially due to losing Kirk Cousins after eight games and churning through three other quarterbacks to finish the year. That’s an issue again this season with Sam Darnold and rookie JJ McCarthy taking over passing duties. The Vikings may end up better than this by year’s end, but it’s hard to see essentially the same players improving much while a rookie learns the NFL.
27. Tennessee Titans
Over the recent years, the one-time elite offensive line of the Titans declined and became one of the worst pass-blocking units in the NFL. Derrick Henry’s final season saw moderate marks from the run blocking but both Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis struggled to pass while pressured in almost a third of their attempts. Entering 2024, the Titans are finally leaving behind that run-all-the-time mentality and starting anew with HC Brian Callahan. He’ll import the Bengals offense and change the scheme. Pass blocking matters even more now. The Titans lost C Aaron Brewer to the Dolphins but added C Lloyd Cushenberry (four-years, $50M) from the Broncos. Most importantly, they added T JC Latham from Alabama with their 1.07 pick who will be slotted as the new left tackle – that should help reduce the pressures. Also a plus, the O-line is being directed by Bill Callahan, one of the most respected line coaches and, incidentally, Brian’s father. This is a unit that should improve with pass blocking, it’s only a question of how long it takes to come together.
28. Arizona Cardinals
This unit surprised by helping the backfield average 4.8 yards per carry, but it also ranked dead last in the percentage of negative rushes. The pass blocking stats were similar to 2022 but slightly improved. The second season for OC Drew Petzing added T Jonah Williams (two-year, $30M) and lost no important blockers. They added new tackles in the third and fifth rounds but this offense continues to evolve and the expectation is that they remain below average for 2024.
29. New England Patriots
The Patriots’ blocking declined last season after 2022 had shown improvement with average rankings. But 2023 wasn’t nearly as successful with all measurements dropping below average. They lost RT Trenton Brown to the Bengals but resigned RT Mike Onwenu and brought in T Chukwuma (one-year, $4M) from the Steelers. They drafted an offensive tackle in the third round and a guard in the fourth. The Pats are installing a new offensive scheme this year and will at least eventually turn to the rookie quarterback Drake Maye who needs pass protection as a pocket passer. This is the first year for the new scheme and this unit isn’t likely to be an asset quite yet.
30. Denver Broncos
Entering 2023, the Broncos gifted new HC Sean Payton with pricey free agents T Mike McGlinchey and G Ben Powers in the hopes that they could improve pass blocking that rated Bottom-3 in pass-blocking metrics including dead-last in sacks (63). While run blocking proved average, the pass blocking still remained an issue with Bottom-5 rankings. This offseason, they lost C Lloyd Cushenberry to the Titans and did nothing for the O-line other than spend a seventh-round pick on another center. But this unit returns almost intact and Russell Wilson isn’t there to hold on to the ball too long. That still may not improve much with either Zach Wilson or the rookie Bo Nix under center, and it will be a new center at that.
31. Washington Commanders
Eric Bienemy only lasted a year as their offensive coordinator, but the offensive blocking improved in 2023 for the run game. The Commanders were at the bottom of the rankings in both run and pass blocking metrics after 2022, but turned around last season to finish as No. 10 in yards per carry and even took the top ranking for negative runs. Pass blocking remained weak, particularly with 65 sacks allowed. Some of that is related to Sam Howell’s only season as a starting quarterback. The pass blocking must improve with the offense handed over to Kliff Kingsbury and his penchant for aerial shows. Adding a rookie quarterback lends another significant dynamic, but Jayden Daniels’ dual threat abilities may help his offensive line. The O-line was upgraded with G Nick Allegretti (three-year, $16M) and C Tyler Biadasz (three-year, $29M) and drafting G Brandon Coleman from TCU in the third round. He may be switched to left tackle to replace Charles Leno who was released this spring. The left side of the line is weaker and a new scheme will be installed. The impact of the new blockers and that running quarterback should pay dividends later in the year.
32. New York Giants
The G-Men owned one of the worst offensive lines for many years and previous attempts to fix it never yielded positive results. Coming off 2022, the rushing metrics were average but the pass blocking was Bottom-5. Both starting tackles are former first-round picks and yet the Giants ranked No. 32 in sacks allowed, sack rate, and percent of pass plays with pressure for 2023. They picked up free agent RT Jermaine Eluemunor (two-year, $14M) from the Raiders and added G Jon Runyan (three-years, $30M) from the Packers. While that should help, and there is nowhere to go but up, the Giants’ offense enters 2024 without any rookie linemen, no Saquon Barkley, still relying on Daniel Jones and all that happens behind an O-line that has consistently been among the worst and that has defied improvement.
Will Buffalo rely heavily on the run with a shaky WR corps?
Heading into last season, the Buffalo Bills made the decision to let running back Devin Singletary (now with the New York Giants) depart for greener pastures. That thrust RB James Cook into the lead role. He responded. After rushing for 507 yards while splitting time with Singletary as a rookie, Cook carried the ball 237 times for 1,122 yards last year. That’s solid production from a lead back, especially with a capable running quarterback factoring in.
Things didn’t go as smoothly further down the depth chart. Damien Harris, signed from the New England Patriots to serve as RB2, suffered a severe neck injury in Week 6 and missed the rest of the season. He retired in March. With Harris lost, the team tried its luck in playing veteran Latavius Murray and even brought RB Leonard Fournette onto the practice squad in late October. While Murray (79-300-4) was the best of the bunch, the overall lack of production from that spot was an issue.
General manager Brandon Beane hopes he has addressed that with the selection of Ray Davis in the fourth round, and perhaps even via the signing of undrafted free-agent RB Frank Gore Jr. With major changes at receiver in Buffalo as well, let’s take a look at the Bills’ backfield to see who holds value in 2024.
Does OBJ have one last worthwhile season left in the tank?
In terms of name value, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. still moves the needle. When it comes to production on the field, however, OBJ has had little impact since his first season with the Cleveland Browns, when he caught 74 passes for 1,035 yards and four touchdowns in 2019. That includes last season as Beckham posted a 35-565-3 line with the Baltimore Ravens.
There was some hope last offseason that joining forces with quarterback Lamar Jackson would usher in a statistical renaissance for Beckham, but he started slowly, suffered an ankle injury after just two weeks, and didn’t top the 50-yard mark in a game until Nov. 5. Even while Jackson played at an MVP level, it was rookie WR Zay Flowers who ended up emerging as the de facto WR1, though Beckham did finish second in yardage while averaging a career-high 16.1 yards per catch.
A free agent once again, Beckham landed a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins. Despite checking in as the No. 3 receiver behind receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the speed-oriented nature of head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense at least creates a level of intrigue for Beckham. As noted, the veteran hasn’t had much of an impact over the past four years, but the time he looked the most dangerous was during his postseason run with the Los Angeles Rams in 2021: 21 receptions, 288 yards, and two TDs in four games before tearing his ACL during the Super Bowl.
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Despite some lean years, it’s hard to argue that Beckham won’t have an opportunity here. Last season, the Dolphins led the NFL in passing offense, but only Hill (1,799 yards) and Waddle (1,014) finished in the NFL’s top-100 in receiving yardage. The rest of Miami’s receivers — Cedrick Wilson, Braxton Berrios, Robbie Chosen, River Cracraft, and Chase Claypool — combined for 66 receptions, 807 yards, and six touchdowns; none of them reached 300 yards on the season.
On paper, Beckham is an upgrade, and he brings a couple of silver linings from last year into his new role. First, there was his aforementioned 16.1 YPC, which speaks to some resurgent big-play ability, and second, he played in 14 games, matching his highest total since 2019. If he can stay healthy and develop some chemistry with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Beckham has a chance to emerge as a dangerous third option for the Dolphins.
Fantasy football outlook
The style and prolific nature of Miami’s offense dictates you at least keep tabs on the veteran, however, and if OBJ shows signs of being a meaningful contributor he could be worth scooping up as roster depth with a little upside. The likeliest path to fantasy production is an injury taking Waddle or Hill off the field for a long stretch of time.
Entering his age-32 season and four full years removed from his last semi-impactful effort, Beckham isn’t someone you can rely on.
Which players may have added financial incentive this season?
While simply entering a contract year is not a guarantee of increased fantasy football production, us gamers look to unearth any extra motivation that may help real-life players put put our fake squads over the top.
The key when evaluating such data is to treat it as another piece of the puzzle and not get too caught up in this extra info. The salary cap increased as usual this year after a dip during the height of the pandemic. We’ve seen a fair amount of one-year deals again, in addition to the usual expiring long-term pacts, creating a deep class of free agents at wide receiver, and running back shows a few promising names as well.
Notes: All players listed below will be unrestricted and restricted free agents as of March 2025, focusing on those who have made a dent in fantasy in recent years or could be in position to matter. The listed age reflects how old the player will be upon the opening free agency. The list focuses on players potential fantasy relevance.
Will Justin Fields unseat Russell Wilson, and does it even matter?
The Pittsburgh Steelers had as interesting an offseason in its quarterback room as anyone in the league. They worked out a team-friendly deal with exiled veteran Russell Wilson and, when it was obvious the Chicago Bears were going to take Caleb Williams with the first pick of the draft, Justin Fields became available in trade at a discounted price. The Kenny Pickett era ended in an instant, and the franchise moved on.
Is there a realistic chance Gesicki bounces back in 2024?
A second-round pick of the Miami Dolphins in 2018, tight end Mike Gesicki looked like a player on the rise, posting a 73-780-2 line in 2021 to give him a total of 177 receptions, 2,053 yards, and 13 touchdowns over a three-year stretch. Miami thought enough of Gesicki to slap the franchise tag on him. Heading into Year 5 with new head coach Mike McDaniel arriving, the future looked bright for Gesicki.
Instead, McDaniel brought an offensive attack predicated on speed and vertical shots, built around wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and the result was a marginalized role for Gesicki. After seeing an average of 95 targets over his previous three seasons, the Penn State alum had just 52 in 2022, and — outside of his five touchdowns — his numbers fell to non-rookie lows (32-362-5).
Coming off a down year, Gesicki inked a one-year deal with the New England Patriots. The thought process was clear: give new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien another talented tight end to pair with TE Hunter Henry and watch as that duo recreates the magic seen during O’Brien’s previous run with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. It didn’t work out that way.
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The Pats scuffled offensively throughout 2023 as quarterback Mac Jones regressed, and QB Bailey Zappe showed none of the promise he’d flashed the previous year. When the dust settled, Gesicki was targeted just 45 times, catching 29 of them for 244 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was another disappointing year for the talented pass catcher.
Gesicki signed another one-year deal this offseason, this time with the Cincinnati Bengals, in hope of reigniting his flagging career. It follows Cincinnati’s recent trend, having brought in veteran TEs Hayden Hurst in 2022 and Irv Smith Jr. last year. Hurst (52-414-2 in ‘22) was a far more productive signing than Smith (18-115-1), but the Bengals will be hoping for more from Gesicki.
While tight end hasn’t been a featured position since quarterback Joe Burrow arrived in 2020, the winds of change are blowing in Cincinnati. WR Tyler Boyd is gone, having signed with the Tennessee Titans, and wideout Tee Higgins has demanded a trade after receiving the franchise tag, leaving WR Ja’Marr Chase as the one sure thing in the Bengals’ passing attack.
In terms of competition, TE Drew Sample (22-163-2) returns, and the team spent fourth- and sixth-round picks on TEs Erick All (knee) and Tanner McLachlan, respectively. On paper, nobody in that group is a threat to challenge Gesicki for the top job in 2024. All has the talent over the long term, though he’s recovering from a torn ACL.
Fantasy football outlook
Coming off two disappointing seasons, Gesicki is unlikely to garner much attention in fantasy drafts this time around. While that’s a valid approach, he shouldn’t be dismissed entirely. Depending on how things shake out with Higgins, Gesicki has a chance to fill a bigger role than he has since 2021, and Burrow is easily the best quarterback with whom he’s played. He’s someone to add to your watch list as a possible TE2, provided Higgins is indeed dealt.
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Cardinals and Bears looking at a sweet schedule for the receivers
The strength of schedule for receivers lumps wide receivers and tight ends together since each team uses the positions differently. While overall averages are interesting, no position is as sensitive to individual matchups as are receivers facing particular defensive backs. This makes the analysis less accurate than that for running backs and quarterbacks. The best receiver for an offense invariably draws the best coverage defender, if not more than one on most plays.
The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, and that creates 64 “different defensive matchups” depending on where the game is played.
The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses for receivers last year is at the bottom of this page.
Total Points
For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense according to their schedule using the averages allowed by those defenses in 2023 .
PHI
CHI
DET
ARI
GB
ATL
SF
NYJ
IND
CLE
HOU
781
774
768
766
754
746
745
745
743
733
731
CAR
DAL
LV
NO
WAS
BUF
BAL
SEA
NE
MIN
728
726
724
723
723
719
718
717
716
713
TEN
KC
NYG
TB
PIT
CIN
LAR
DEN
MIA
LAC
JAC
711
707
703
701
700
698
697
693
690
689
687
Weekly Play
Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoffs. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22.
Wk 1-17
SOS
Good
Bad
First 6 Gms
SOS
Good
Bad
Playoffs
SOS
Good
Bad
CHI
5
8
3
HOU
3
4
1
CHI
3
3
0
ARI
5
8
3
NYJ
3
3
0
SF
3
3
0
DET
4
7
3
SEA
3
4
1
CIN
2
2
0
GB
3
6
3
ARI
2
3
1
CLE
2
2
0
SF
3
6
3
TB
2
4
2
TEN
2
2
0
NYJ
3
6
3
IND
2
2
0
ATL
1
2
1
BUF
2
5
3
CHI
2
3
1
LAC
1
2
1
NE
2
7
5
NE
2
3
1
GB
1
1
0
IND
1
5
4
DET
2
3
1
NO
1
1
0
BAL
1
5
4
WAS
1
2
1
MIN
0
1
1
ATL
0
6
6
GB
0
2
2
LV
0
1
1
CLE
0
6
6
SF
0
1
1
WAS
0
1
1
HOU
0
6
6
DEN
0
1
1
JAC
0
1
1
DAL
0
6
6
BAL
0
2
2
NE
0
1
1
TEN
0
6
6
BUF
0
2
2
DEN
0
1
1
CAR
-1
5
6
MIA
0
1
1
NYJ
0
1
1
LV
-1
4
5
PHI
-1
1
2
BUF
0
1
1
NO
-1
5
6
CLE
-1
2
3
PHI
-1
1
2
SEA
-1
5
6
CAR
-1
2
3
KC
-1
0
1
PHI
-2
5
7
ATL
-1
1
2
BAL
-1
0
1
WAS
-2
4
6
NYG
-1
2
3
ARI
-1
0
1
MIN
-2
3
5
KC
-1
1
2
DAL
-1
1
2
MIA
-2
2
4
LAR
-1
1
2
DET
-1
0
1
KC
-3
4
7
PIT
-2
2
4
LAR
-1
0
1
NYG
-3
5
8
NO
-2
2
4
CAR
-1
0
1
CIN
-3
4
7
DAL
-2
1
3
HOU
-1
1
2
LAR
-3
3
6
JAC
-2
1
3
MIA
-1
0
1
TB
-4
4
8
LAC
-2
0
2
IND
-2
0
2
PIT
-4
5
9
MIN
-2
0
2
TB
-2
0
2
LAC
-4
3
7
LV
-3
0
3
PIT
-2
0
2
JAC
-4
4
8
CIN
-3
1
4
NYG
-3
0
3
DEN
-5
2
7
TEN
-3
1
4
SEA
-3
0
3
Best schedule strength
DJ Moore/Keenan Allen (CHI) – The Bears feature the top quarterback from the 2024 draft and that throws risk into the equation even for an elite talent. DJ Moore was new last year and succeeded but now has the young quarterback and will share with Keenan Allen. Caleb Williams still needs to prove his talent, but he has two competent receivers enjoying the lightest schedule strength in the NFL.
Marvin Harrison Jr./Trey McBride (ARI) – The Arizona receivers also face the same best-case schedule for 2024, but unlike the Bears, their quarterback is the veteran, and the wideout is the top-drafted in his position this year. Trey McBride was a breakout second-year tight end who returns to the same quarterback, coaches and scheme. Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a very advantageous position with marginal competition from the other Cardinal wideouts and also faces the softest schedule.
Amon-Ra St. Brown/Sam LaPorta (DET) – This is an interesting development. The Lions return the same scheme and players including Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was No. 2 in receptions last year (119) and Sam LaPorta who was the top fantasy tight end despite being a rookie. Now, all that greatness from 2024 is pitted against the third-best schedule strength. The only marginal downside is that there are no light matchups left after Week 13.
Garrett Wilson/Mike Williams (NYJ) – Can it finally be the Jets’ year? Garrett Wilson shined regardless of the otherwise mediocrity at quarterback last season. He gets, assumedly, a healthy Aaron Rodgers and a lighter schedule to boost his 2024 potential. Mike Williams has to learn a new offense and return from his ACL tear but at least face a lighter slate of defensive venues. The rookie Malachi Corley could also figure in if Williams is slow to return to form.
Worst schedule strength
Courtland Sutton/Josh Reynolds (DEN) – As if the coin flip between Bo Nix and Zach Wilson wasn’t scary enough, the Broncos are looking at the cruelest schedule for receivers with just two light matchups. They have a stretch during the season where eight games contain six bad venues and no good ones.
Christian Kirk/Brian Thomas (JAC) – The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley but replaced him with Brian Thomas Jr., which should be a wash, if only eventually. The only saving grace to their rough outlook with eight poor matchups is that they had one of the worst schedules last year, and 2024 may be bad, but it is slightly better than 2023.
Joshua Palmer/Quentin Johnston (LAC) – It was already scary enough losing Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. And bringing in a far more conservative offensive scheme that seeks to run more and pass less. But the Chargers have one of the weakest pair of starters going against one of the worst schedule strengths which include only three lighter matchups all year.
George Pickens/Van Jefferson/Roman Wilson (PIT) – The Steelers imported the Falcons offense when they hired OC Arthur Smith who is fresh from the crash-and-burn of the Atlanta passing game the last couple of seasons. Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields learn that new run-heavy scheme with sketchy receivers outside of George Pickens and face an NFL-worst nine games facing the toughest venues.
2024 weekly grid
Fantasy points allowed per game to WRs
These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for wide receivers and tight ends.