2024 fantasy football – Page 10

2024 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the more accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

See Also: Quarterbacks | Receivers

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2024?

Best schedule swings

Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet (SEA) – After two seasons as the No. 20 fantasy running back, Walker gets a chance to take advantage of the most dramatic swing for the position. His schedule strength rockets up from No. 30 to No. 2 and that should be apparent so long as Charbonnet doesn’t take a hefty chunk away from him.

Aaron Jones (MIN) – The offensive line won’t be an advantage unlike back in Green Bay, but Jones’ first season with the Vikings with a boost from the No. 29 up to the No. 9 schedule. He wasn’t there last year, but he suffered through the worst schedule in 2023 while with the Packers. The schedule should help get him back on track.

Breece Hall (NYJ) – Hall already exploded last year when the Jets kicked off the training wheels and let Hall become the workhorse back. He’ll enjoy a lighter schedule this time around and maybe even a passing offense that can take the pressure of him.

Javonte Williams (DEN) – After a tough 2023 when he was still recovering from his torn ACL, Williams has a nice upgrade to his schedule but he seems to have lost a bit from his injury and the Broncos added Audric Estime. This isn’t as safe of an advantage as it might seem.

Rachaad White (TB) – With the Buccaneers getting a rougher passing schedule, White may already be in line for more receptions from the backfield. But he also gets a solid upgrade in rushing schedule that should keep him on the field and productive. Bucky Irving was drafted to help out, but an easier schedule should keep White looking better and keep Irving from making inroads for a bigger share.

About the same schedule strength

The only notable teams are the Bengals and Colts who repeat what were already tough schedules from 2023.

Worst schedule swings

Christian McCaffrey (SF) – Okay, so the best running back from 2023 has the worst swing in schedule strength. Is that enough to sway you from taking him with the 1.01 pick? Probably not. McCaffrey’s problem is more about staying healthy but he’s always a monster when he plays because he just switches to being a receiver if the rushing lanes are clogged. Still, will be interesting to track.

Bijan Robinson (ATL) – Not Bijan too! The Falcons’ stud running back is hoping to become “all that he can be” now that Arthur Smith is gone and new OC Zac Robinson wants to use him extensively in any way they can get the ball into his hands. But the dip from No. 7 down to the No. 29 is concerning for any back. On the plus, Robinson’s volume should be much higher for 2024, and he was already the No. 8 fantasy running back last year with partial use.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson should be better than their schedules, the same may not be true for the aging Elliott, who has slowed down and is now back in Dallas for the second time for a team with a lesser O-line and now the worst schedule for running backs. Elliott is no lock to remain the RB1 in Dallas all season and has fallen deep in drafts. This won’t make him any more appealing.

Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule strength has taken a downturn from 2023, but like McCaffrey and Robinson, Etienne is a dual-threat back and the center of their backfield that contains no real competition.

James Cook (BUF) – This is a bit concerning for a lesser talented back than the above players. Cook ended as the No. 11 fantasy back last year as a surprise, but he was facing the No. 2 best fantasy schedule for the position. He drops below average for 2024, and the Bills offense will be different with their best wideouts gone. That may help Cook see more receptions, but he’s probably not “better than his schedule.”

Will a change of scenery help Jerry Jeudy’s fantasy prospects?

Does this former Bronco have a shot at living up to his potential in Cleveland?

Few fantasy players are more polarizing than Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. The 15th overall pick in the 2020 draft, expectations were high that Jeudy’s college success at Alabama would translate to the Broncos offense. Unfortunately for him (and those who drafted him) it hasn’t worked out that way.

In four seasons with the Broncos he never had a 1,000-yard season and finished three seasons with fewer than 55 receptions and three or fewer touchdowns. Those numbers are what you would expect from a No. 3 receiver in an NFL offense, not a WR1. The closest he ever came to putting up numbers worthy of being in weekly lineup consideration was in 2022 when he caught 67 passes for 972 yards and six touchdowns.

Denver’s disenchantment with Jeudy’s lack of high-end production ended this spring when the Broncos traded him to the Browns for a pair of late-round draft picks. Reviews on the trade are mixed. While he hasn’t proved he can be a star receiver in the NFL, Cleveland gave him a three-year, $58 million extension following the trade.

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Jeudy comes to an offense loaded with skill position talent with running backs Nick Chubb (knee) and Jerome Ford, wide receivers Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore and tight end David Njoku. That represents a lot of competition for passes and the biggest issue surrounds the wheelman of the offense, quarterback Deshaun Watson.

One of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the league when he was in Houston, Watson missed all of the 2021 season with legal issues and hasn’t lived up to his massive contract with the Browns (five years, $230 million fully guaranteed). In two seasons in Cleveland, Watson has played in just 12 games, averaging 185 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. When evaluating any receiver, his quarterback has to factor into the equation, and there are many more questions than answers with Watson heading into Year 3 of his Cleveland deal.

Fantasy football outlook

Too many red flags pop up in the marriage between Jeudy and the Browns. Jeudy has been a career disappointment, and he’s coming into an offense that boasts considerable competition for targets. The biggest concern is building a rapport with Watson, which won’t come as easily as it might seem.

In November, Watson had surgery to repair a fractured right shoulder socket, which can be a career-ending injury for a quarterback. The Browns coaching and medical staffs are going to take their time bringing Watson back, which hurts Jeudy more than the other receivers that Watson has already worked with and developed timing. Getting meaningful reps between a quarterback and receivers is critical to success, and Jeudy isn’t going to get enough of that until the regular season begins, which should drop his value markedly.

At best, Jeudy is a WR5 in a 12-manager league because of the questions surrounding his arrival to Cleveland. Anywhere before No. 5 is taking too big a gamble. However, at WR5 the risk is minimized and if he washes out there wasn’t a significant investment made. Judy has been a disappointment thus far in his career, but he still has the talent to turn things around. By the time WR5 types are coming off the board, the potential reward will finally meet up with the risk.

Fantasy football: Breaking down the LA Chargers backfield

Injury concerns, unproven upside, underwhelming veterans … this backfield has it all.

Perhaps no team has seen a bigger overhaul of skill players than the Los Angeles Chargers, which hired new head coach Jim Harbaugh and are in the process of adapting to his style. Among the departed are last year’s Week 1 starters at running back (Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders), tight end (Gerald Everett, Chicago Bears), and wide receiver (Keenan Allen, Bears, and Mike Williams, New York Jets). Even their No. 2 rusher, Joshua Kelly, remains unsigned and is unlikely to return.

It’s a lot of change, and yet, the top of LA’s backfield looks familiar … to Baltimore Ravens fans. With former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman now running the show for Harbaugh, the Bolts waded into free agency to pluck RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards on short-term deals. Both have a lot of experience in Roman’s offense, and Harbaugh’s desire to set a physical tone suggests the Chargers will be running more in 2024 than they did under the previous regime.

Of course, the caveat to such an approach is the presence of quarterback Justin Herbert, who is among the NFL’s best. It’s difficult to imagine they’ll fully marginalize the ascending superstar, but with their wideouts in a state of transition, a healthy dose of the ground game feels likely this season.

Is Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco ready to explode?

Two strong seasons put Pacheco on the cusp of something big.

The Kansas City Chiefs have a history of developing role players during the Andy Reid era, but few have made the meteoric rise running back Isiah Pacheco has accomplished in two seasons. The 251st pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, Pacheco had no guarantee of making the final roster – more seventh-round picks don’t than do. However, Pacheco made an immediate impact and earned a part-time role in the offense.

Strengthened by a strong training camp, Pacheco started the season as the No. 2 back behind incumbent Clyde Edwards-Helaire. It wasn’t until midseason that Pacheco took over the starting job and finished the year with 170 carries for 830 yards and five touchdowns. He backed up that performance with a three-game postseason run when he rushed 37 times for 197 yards and one touchdown, setting the stage to permanently take over the running back position in 2023.

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The primary knock against Pacheco has been that he doesn’t have the size to withstand the punishment running backs absorb over the course of a full season and could carry a higher risk level of missing significant time than other top running backs. Pacheco threw that criticism out the window last year. In 14 games last season (rested Week 18), he had 205 carries for 935 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. He had 15 or more carries in nine of the final 12 games of the regular season and logged 81 carries for 313 yards and three touchdowns in four postseason games. If there was question as to whether Pacheco could hold up as a featured workhorse back, he silenced his doubters.

However, what helped Pacheco ascend to an elite fantasy running back was his improvement as a receiver. In 17 games as a rookie, Pacheco caught just 13 passes. In 14 games last season, he landed 44 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns. He had at least one reception in 13 of 14 games and four or more catches in six of those.

Heading into his third season, Pacheco has earned the confidence of his coaches and teammates to be a critical piece of the Chiefs offense and one of the NFL’s top fantasy running backs.

Fantasy football outlook

Few players were more consistent last year in terms of touches and production than Pacheco. He never went more than two games without 15 or more rushing attempts in a game and scored at least one touchdown in eight of 14 games. There was never a point in which he had a prolonged lull in production and scoring fantasy points.

While Kansas City’s offense is formed around quarterback Patrick Mahomes, it can be argued the player who makes the offense run at a high level is Pacheco. In a 12-owner league, Pacheco is a low-end RB1 with as much upside as any running back outside the top five.

Fantasy expectations of Washington Commanders WRs

A rookie QB and new OC usher in a fresh start for this WR corps.

Coming into last season, the Washington Commanders looked to have a talented receiver room poised to make life tough on opposing secondaries. Their quarterback situation was a bit of a mess, though, which is driven home by the fact that neither Sam Howell (Seattle Seahawks) nor Jacoby Brissett (New England Patriots) are still with the club, replaced by No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels and journeyman Marcus Mariota, respectively.

While leading receiver Terry McLaurin returns, Curtis Samuel (62-613-4) signed with the Buffalo Bills, creating a lineup hole in the team hopes it filled with the selection of WR Luke McCaffrey. Jahan Dotson also is back, coming off a disappointing sophomore campaign.

Where this unit lands will have a lot to do with Daniels, and how ready he is to step in to deliver for new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who led some prolific offenses in college. Although we can expect some growing pains from the rookie, the pieces are in place for Washington to produce some fantasy-worthy receivers.

Fantasy football: Baltimore Ravens wide receiver outlook

Is there any value to be found after Zay Flowers in this underwhelming receiving corps?

Last year, the switch from offensive coordinator Greg Roman to Todd Monken generated some hope for the Baltimore Ravens’ passing game. The team then signed free-agent (and current Miami Dolphins) Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round to give them their most formidable wide receiver corps in living memory, at least on paper. While it’s hard to call a season that ended in an MVP award for quarterback Lamar Jackson disappointing, the Ravens’ overall passing numbers were middling as they finished 21st in yards (3,635) and tied for 12th in TDs (27).

Entering Year 2 in Monken’s system, it’ll be interesting to see if things trend upward for the aerial game, or if Jackson and a retooled ground attack once again take center stage. While Beckham is gone, the other three top wideouts from a year ago return to give the offense some stability. Let’s take a quick look at what we can expect from Baltimore’s receivers in 2024.

Fantasy football outlook: New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry

Could fantasy owners be sleeping on Hunter Henry?

New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry has displayed just enough production to be drafted as a TE1 on fantasy rosters. But, seven years into his career, he hasn’t shown the consistency to be an every-week starter.

As a rookie with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2016, Henry made a splash by scoring eight touchdowns on just 36 receptions. In his next three years, he had two seasons with 55 or more catches, despite missing time in each campaign. His career-best 60 receptions came in 2020, coinciding with his opportunity to hit free agency, where he signed a three-year deal with the Patriots.

Henry’s first season in New England saw him set a career high with nine touchdowns, catching 50 passes for 603 yards. It was his connection with young quarterback Mac Jones that gave the Patriots reason to believe at the time Jones would be the long-term answer.

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That didn’t happen, but Henry is a cornerstone piece of the offense as the team readjusts in the post-Bill Belichick era, and he is being asked once again to assist in the development of another young quarterback (Drake Maye).

New England had the option of moving on from Henry after last season as free agency neared. It isn’t unusual when a franchise in a rebuild sheds itself of some higher priced veteran players – even a team captain, like Henry. The Patriots did just the opposite, re-signing him to a three-year deal to keep him in New England.

The Patriots don’t have a lot of dynamic receiving options, so having Henry as a leader on the offense will be critical in the transition of the franchise.

Fantasy football outlook

It would appear Henry’s career is going to be defined as being the security blanket for young quarterbacks. In 2020, when he had the most receptions of his career (60 in 14 games), Henry was one of the go-to targets for rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. His last three seasons in New England were marked by him being a primary target for Jones.

While veteran Jacoby Brissett certainly could open the year at QB1, as the Patriots move into the Maye era, Henry is again front and center in the offensive plans. Tight ends routinely run shorter routes and settle in to soft spots in zones, giving a young QB a good target to deliver passes. Should Brissett linger in the lineup, he has a documented history as a game manager.

The other concern anyone considering drafting Henry should have is that he has a penchant for injury. He has missed multiple games in four of the last six seasons, so anyone who ends up with Henry on a fantasy roster does so with a realistic expectation that he will miss time.

Henry has consistently shown he can be expected to have about 50 receptions for 500-600 yards and four to five touchdowns – decent numbers, but not elite ones. He’s a grinder, who ideally is a No. 2 in tight end-mandatory leagues. With a growing number of athletic young TEs coming into the league, players like Henry will slide down in rankings, because he’s a proven commodity with a known ceiling. He will end up on fantasy rosters, but it won’t be to be a weekly starter.

Is Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis poised to break out?

What should gamers expect from this promising young passer?

Taken with the first pick in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Tennessee Titans were high on the potential that quarterback Will Levis had the skills to be their version of Josh Allen. Coming out of the Week 7 bye, the coaching staff pushed veteran Ryan Tannehill out of the way and handed the keys to the offense over to Levis.

In his first game, Levis threw four touchdown passes and the Titans brass looked like geniuses. That would change pretty quickly. Over his last eight starts, Levis threw just four more TDs and fewer than 200 yards in five of his last seven starts. Those numbers could make anyone question why should Levis even garner fantasy draft consideration?

Things have changed.

No team has leaned more heavily on the running game than Tennessee over the past six years. Derrick Henry was such a dominating presence that the passing game was used primarily to augment the run, not carry the load for the offense.

Henry left via free agency, and head coach Mike Vrabel, who embraced the run-first, run-second approach, was fired. Brian Callahan, who spent the last five years in Cincinnati helping develop Joe Burrow, has come to Nashville to do the same with Levis.

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The Titans are all-in for the quick ascent of the passing offense with a complete makeover. Six of Levis’ eight TD passes went to DeAndre Hopkins last season, so he already has a go-to guy, even with limited experience. In the offseason, the Titans stepped up to snatch Calvin Ridley away division-rival Jacksonville. Thanks to an endorsement from Callahan, veteran Tyler Boyd comes to Tennessee as a slot receiver. He has 58 or more receptions in each of the last six years and 67 or more in five of those six.

The wild card for the elevation of Levis is that both of the top two running backs currently on the roster – Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears – are known as much for their receiving ability as their rushing. If tight end Chigoziem Okwonko and/or former first-rounder Treylon Burks can take the next step, there are a slew of weapons to speed up the Levis train.

Fantasy football outlook

As things currently stand, Levis is at the very back end of the QB2 ADP range. This is a strange landing spot for him. In 12-manager leagues, it means the same person who jumped on a quarterback earlier than everyone else and needs an insurance policy likely is going after Levis as a QB2. Under that scenario, Levis never plays, barring injury and the bye week.

Perhaps somebody who waited to take a QB1 may want to elevate Levis a little so there is a chance that he plays more often. If he blows up — like some of us suspect he will — with the talent that has been added around him and the change in offensive philosophy, Levis will have the ability to be a weekly starter or part of a matchup-based QB tandem. But at his current ADP, he will grow dust on the fantasy bench because of the investment made to land a QB1. Consider him a coveted QB2 in best-ball formats.

Fantasy football outlook: Pittsburgh Steelers running backs

One of these two backs is the fantasy favorite, but will both offer utility?

The Pittsburgh Steelers have long maintained an offense focused on the running game more than most teams. Even when Ben Roethlisberger was cementing his Hall of Fame resume, the ground game was vital to the success of the offense.

After struggling in the post-Big Ben era, the Steelers have set themselves up for success with three running backs who can all get the job done – Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson.

With one of the ultimate game manager quarterbacks in history now in Pittsburgh (Russell Wilson), all three of the top guys are going to get their opportunities to contribute. Throw in new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who oversaw the most run-heavy offense in the NFL the last three years while in Atlanta, there is reason for more than one of the Steelers running backs making an impact on fantasy rosters.

Fantasy football forecast: Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers

Is he the next rookie TE1 breakout to draft?

The conventional wisdom coming into the 2024 draft was the Las Vegas Raiders were going to get involved in the frenzy of drafting quarterbacks. That plan became moot when six teams selected a QB in front of the Raiders at Pick 13.

With the top quarterbacks gone, the Raiders chose the best athlete available, Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. A year after selecting tight end Michael Mayer in the second round of the ’23 draft, the Raiders reportedly spurned trade offers to move out of the spot because they believe so strongly in his ability.

In 40 games at Georgia, Bowers caught 175 passes for 2,538 yards and 26 touchdowns, being named a First Team All-American in each of his three seasons. He possesses a rare combination of speed, route running, and pass-catching ability, and the hype train has already picked up speed. The Raiders are talking a big game — but is it legitimate?

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The numbers would suggest it will be difficult for Bowers to make a significant immediate impact. In the last 20 drafts, these tight ends have been taken in the first round: Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, O.J. Howard, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Eric Ebron, Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, Brandon Pettigrew, Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis and Heath Miller.

Every one of them came to the NFL as a phenomenal talent, viewed more as a wide receiver than a typical professional tight end. The NFL levels that playing field quickly. Only four of the players listed above (Kincaid, Pitts, Engram and Fant) had more than 550 receiving yards as a rookie. Those are daunting numbers Bowers is up against.

Fantasy football outlook

The elephant in the room in Vegas is that the quarterback who will make Bowers a fantasy star isn’t on the current roster. Second-year man Aidan O’Connell took a beating last season, and veteran Gardner Minshew has had his moments, but he’s on his fourth team in five years for a reason.

The Raiders have a defense good enough to win games. All they’re asking is for their offense not to make critical mistakes in games that can be won. The loss of running back Josh Jacobs takes away the focal point of the offense, but the ground game is clearly going to remain an offensive priority, which doesn’t help Bowers.

For a team that scored 21 or fewer points in 13 of 17 games last year, expecting a breakout passing game from the Raiders is asking a lot. Keep in mind Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Mayer are still there. Bowers will have big individual weeks, but consistency will be hard to achieve as a rookie in the current scenario.

Bowers is viewed as one of the greatest tight end prospects in 20 years, and he could buck the trend of slow starts. The current point-per-reception ADP ranking has him as a back-end TE1. His talent will have Bowers owners playing him as a No. 1 every week to chase monster games. Fantasy managers have been doing that with Pitts for three years, and there have been more disappointing weeks than not.

If you can get Bowers as a TE2 in a 12-team league, jump at it. If he is your TE1, the weekly ebbs and flows will be hard to handle.