Tag: 2023 nfl playoffs

NFL Playoffs: Secret Superstars of the wild-card round — the defense

Which unknown players will step up in the wild-card round? Here are this week’s Secret Superstars on the defensive side of the ball.

If your team is going to win a Super Bowl, at some point along that ride, your team will have to get at least one remarkable postseason performance from a player nobody saw coming. Yes, we all expect the big names to come up big in big moments in big games, and other attendant cliches, but somewhere along the line, you will need a Secret Superstar to get the job done.

If you expected Buffalo Bills receiver Gabe Davis to go off for four touchdown catches against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 divisional round, you should probably be working for a team. Because, with all due respect to Davis, I don’t think even the Bills were expecting that.

The same could be said for Houston Oilers defensive back Vernon Perry in the divisional round of the 1979 playoffs against the San Diego Chargers of Don Coryell and Dan Fouts. The undrafted rookie from Jackson State picked off four of Fouts’ passes, and blocked a field goal for good measure. As the game ended 17-14 in Houston’s favor, that block was as important as any of the picks.

You get the idea. At some point in the wild-card round of the upcoming playoffs, there will be at least one player whose name you don’t know who will pop up on the screen, and grab your attention. Here are my most likely players to do just that on the defensive side of the ball; the Secret Superstars on offense for the wild-card round can be found here.

NFL Playoffs: Secret Superstars of the wild-card round — the offense

And here’s the wild-card schedule for all who are curious; I tried to focus on repeat matchups as much as possible.

NFL sets Super Wild-Card Weekend schedule: Times, days, and networks

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Ranking the NFL’s 14 playoff teams by their Super Bowl 57 chances

Ranking the teams with the best shot at making it to Super Bowl 57.

The 2022 NFL regular season is over. Fourteen teams have emerged from the scattered wreckage of an 18-week chain reaction of explosions with Super Bowl 57 dreams still intact.

Wild Card weekend, split into a three-day, six game extravaganza, will be the end of the line for six of those teams. The Divisional Round will shed four more. There may be an odd contender or two in the mix of broken hearts — at least one of the AFC’s power broker contingent of the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals is guaranteed to be there. But for the most part, the teams who lose en route to the conference championships will be road underdogs whose promising stories were always a longshot to end in Arizona.

Who makes up the wheat and who is the chaff in this situation? Anything is possible in the NFL, particularly when the New York Giants are part of the mix. But a 14-team field with only one bye for either conference leaves few gilded roads to the Super Bowl and many more covered in potholes and broken plays.

Knowing that, which team has the brightest Lombardi Trophy hopes at the start of the 2023 NFL Playoffs? And who’ll need a healthy dose of turnover luck to fire off a Cinderella run to the biggest game of the year?

1 important reason why each NFL playoff team (including Tom Brady’s Bucs) could win Super Bowl 57

Everyone has a path to the Super Bowl. Some are just more realistic. That’s all.

We enter each NFL postseason expecting fireworks and stunning performances. But not every team participating has the same exact power to amaze us. And that’s what makes this whole win-or-go-home thing so much dang fun.

As the 2023 NFL Playoffs begin this weekend with the Wild Card Round, I thought it fair to wonder about a potential path to the “Big Game,” Super Bowl 57, for all 14 teams. Because regardless of the realism, regardless of the clear favorites, technically, everyone has a path. It’s just that some are far narrower than others.

From one legendary quarterback’s “magic” to managing the health of an ascending star on a top seed, here’s a breakdown of one key reason why each of the 14 teams in the 2023 NFL Playoffs can win it all. (Note: These are not rankings. This is simply by seeding when noting the list number.)

Straight-up NFL picks, Wild Card round: The Cowboys disrespect is very real

Or maybe we’re just not counting out Touchdown Tom. Also, is trusting the Jaguars gonna hurt us? Probably, right?

The opening round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs is upon us. And, like an estranged relative bringing Christmas gifts clearly bought at CVS on the drive over, it’s got lots to offer that looks good in theory but fails to deliver in application.

A divisional rivalry grudge match between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, where each side as one close win to its credit? Bad news, Tua Tagovailoa won’t be playing. A rubber match between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens? Welp, Lamar Jackson is still hurt.

The game that offers the largest gulf between potential and production, however? Tom Brady vs. Mike McCarthy.

No, it’s not the Patriots-Packers Super Bowl we were promised throughout the 2010s. Instead it’s Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won the NFC South more or less by default, vs. McCarthy’s Dallas Cowboys — a team equally capable of leaving opponents in a cloud of dust or tripping over its own feet to give inferior teams myriad opportunities to beat them.

Our three-man panel ran screaming from the unpredictability of the Cowboys and into the relative comfort of playoff Brady, who is likely playing his final home game as a Buccaneer. Monday night’s NFC matchup provides a wide range of potential outcomes. The only thing we’re moderately sure about is that it will get stupid at some point, McCarthy will trend for reasons he’d rather avoid and Brady will once again shame those who counted out Touchdown Tom.

Here’s who we’ve got for the opening round of the 2023 NFL playoffs.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Seahawks at 49ers 49ers 49ers 49ers
Chargers at Jaguars Jaguars Chargers Chargers
Dolphins at Bills Bills Bills Bills
Giants at Vikings Vikings Giants Vikings
Ravens at Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals
Cowboys at Buccaneers Bucs Bucs Bucs
Last week: 13-3 13-3 12-4
Year to date: 164-90-2 164-90-2 150-104-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

NFL picks against the spread, Wild Card weekend: Can the Buccaneers beat the Cowboys?

Our picks for Wild Card weekend.

I know what you’re thinking. This is the place you come to laugh about someone else’s pain in making picks against the spread. This isn’t where you come for actual advice on where to lay your money in the playoffs. And I get it, our overall records would prove you right.

But hear me out!

The FTW crew is going into the postseason with some solid momentum after everyone went at least .500 in Week 18. I finished the week 9-7 (112-135-9 overall), while Caroline Darney (102-117-6) and Charles Curtis (109-138-9) each went 8-8.

I don’t know about them, but I feel good about Wild Card weekend.

5 very bold predictions (Don’t count out Tom Brady!) for the 2023 NFL Playoffs

The next month should be a doozy. Here are some bold predictions for the chaos ahead.

We may think we have a general idea of what’s going to happen during this NFL postseason, but this silly game of football has a way of surprising us. Let’s be honest — it usually does.

Will a certain journeyman quarterback rise to the occasion? Will a legend remind us he’s not quite done yet? Will there be another Cinderella team/compelling underdog story we simply lose our minds over? No one knows, and no one could possibly accurately predict the chaos to come. Maybe that’s why this month presents itself as the best on the entire football calendar.

We get it now!

As the 2023 NFL Playoffs officially kick off this weekend, here are five bold predictions from For The Win on what lies ahead.

Chargers fans are still furious Brandon Staley played now-injured Mike Williams in a meaningless game

The Chargers could’ve started the playoffs healthy if not for Staley’s ridiculous decision-making.

As one of the hotter teams down the stretch of the 2022 NFL season, the Los Angeles Chargers could’ve begun their playoff run with all their valuable horses in the stable. Instead, with the team’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars looming on Saturday, they might be without vital playmaker Mike Williams. And head coach Brandon Staley seems to be the one likely at fault.

You see, the Chargers had nothing to play for during their regular season finale against the Denver Broncos. Already locked in as the AFC’s No. 5 seed, Los Angeles probably would’ve been better served to rest essential starters ahead of a hopeful deep playoff run. That didn’t happen.

And when Mike Williams injured his back during the matchup — a problem dating back to the start of his career — folks weren’t happy with Staley’s recklessness in a game that meant nothing.

As it unsurprisingly turns out, Williams now appears to be a game-time decision against the Jaguars:

Thanks to the prowess of Justin Herbert, the Chargers may well leave Jacksonville and advance to the Divisional Round anyway. But it’s definitely going to be more challenging if one of their top weapons in Williams can’t go. And should that happen, you have to think Staley will regret his late-season decision-making — when his team had nothing to play for — if L.A. gets eliminated.

NFL Wild Card bettors are sleeping on the Giants against the Vikings, and that’s a mistake

The Giants could be a real threat to upset the Vikings.

I’m not sure if it’s the inflated 13-4 record of the Minnesota Vikings or the simple existence of Justin Jefferson on their roster, but a higher percentage of bets have come in on Minnesota’s side of both the spread and moneyline.

The Vikings are 3-point favorites Sunday over the New York Giants, who they beat with a game-winning 60-yard field goal on Christmas Eve, and 57% of betslips at DraftKings have them covering that number, according to VSiN. That percentage is the same for moneyline bets, which are up to 62% in favor of the Vikings across different sportsbooks, according to Action Network.

It’s evident the public expects Minnesota to win, but I don’t see how that can be for any reasons provided by the team. Which means people simply don’t trust the Giants enough, and that could be a big mistake.

Before we get into why the Giants are a sleeper, it must be said that the Vikings defense is bad. Like, really bad. They ranked 30th in points allowed during the regular season and 31st in yards allowed. That matters against a team not thought of as having a good offense like the Giants because it leaves the door open for New York to exceed expectations on that side of the ball.

That’s exactly what happened in these teams’ first meeting when the Giants posted a season-high 445 yards and very nearly won. Daniel Jones threw for 334 yards, his second game all season with more than 300 yards.

However, Jones’ typically low passing yardage shouldn’t be used as a sign that he can’t air it out on the Vikings again. His 60.7 QBR this season is easily the best of his career and ranked seventh in the entire NFL. Jones’ modest averages can be attributed to a conservative offense that leans on the run due to minimal playmakers on the outside.

But when they needed to, the Giants were able to open things up against Minnesota. That it was possible to the extent that it was should be a concern for people betting on the Vikings.

One week after dicing up Minnesota, Jones had maybe his best game ever, combining for four passing and rushing touchdowns against the Colts. Those two games were the last he’s played, and make up the confidence he comes into the playoffs with. The Vikings will also have to deal with the ultimate weapon and NFL’s fourth-leading rusher Saquon Barkley.

Add to all of that a Giants defense that’s getting healthy at the right time — top cornerback Adoree’ Jackson and starting safety Xavier McKinney are expected to play after missing the first Minnesota game — and the Giants could be a real threat to pull off an upset.

That’s likely why a greater percentage of money on the game leans Giants, despite the higher percentage of total bets going the other way. The money is usually right.

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The largest point spreads on NFL Wild Card weekend aren’t deterring bettors

The 49ers, Bills and Bengals are all favored by more than one score.

Three NFL teams are favored by more than one score on Wild Card Weekend, as sportsbooks expect the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals to all roll in their first-round matchups.

Bettors apparently agree, with an overwhelming majority picking those teams to cover their large spreads, based on DraftKings data from VSiN.

The 49ers are 9.5-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks, and 68% of betslips picked them to cover. The Bills have the largest spread of the weekend, giving 13 points to the Miami Dolphins. Yet 79% of betslips have them covering as well. The Bengals, currently favored by 8.5 points over the Baltimore Ravens, have the largest percentage of bets at 83%.

Bettors might be on to something — at least with the Bills anyway. Double-digit favorites in the playoffs are 11-3 ATS since 2010, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing.

Will that trend end following a regular season with big upsets and a huge dip in scoring? I wouldn’t bet on it. The Dolphins and Ravens both might be starting third-string quarterbacks, and the Seahawks are about to run into a buzz saw.

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The NFL came up with a boring answer for where a Bills-Chiefs AFC title game would be played

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is very nice. It’s also not nearly as fun as Vegas’s first playoff game or a frozen wasteland.

The NFL was left with a conundrum after making the decision to cancel Week 17’s suspended game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. The ripple effects of Damar Hamlin’s on-field collapse left two of the AFC’s top teams with only 16 games on their records instead of the typical (since 2021) 17.

This was a problem. The Kansas City Chiefs finished 2022 with the AFC’s top regular season record at 14-3. But the Bills, who beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6, were 13-3 and left with no opportunity to stake their claim in a seeding system that now relied on win percentage. That left no objective way to decide where the AFC Conference Championship would be played should the two juggernauts meet with a trip to Super Bowl 57 on the line.

In response, the league announced that game, should it happen, would take place on a neutral field. On Thursday, NFL officials unveiled Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium as the backdrop for a showdown between the AFC’s top two seeds.

Atlanta was an early frontrunner for the job thanks to its modern, climate-controlled stadium and similar distance from both Buffalo (an 892 mile drive) and Kansas City (799 miles). Any other AFC title game matchup would take place on the home field of the higher-seeded team.

There are some benefits to Mercedes-Benz Stadium beyond its location. Fans get some of the cheapest concessions in town. They’re also likely eager to see a postseason game since the Falcons haven’t hosted a playoff game since 2017. Atlanta can handle the infrastructure of a big sporting event because it does so all the time — Super Bowls, Final Fours, NCAA National Championship Games, etc.

But Atlanta is also slightly boring. The NFL could have made the first playoff game to take place in Las Vegas, possibly regaling crowds with rumors of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs throwing heaters at the craps tables until 3 a.m. The game could have been moved to Lambeau Field and played in an ice storm, forcing the league’s top two offenses to show off their well-honed cold weather skills. They could have moved the game to London, which would have benefitted no one BUT would have been very funny.

Instead we got Georgia’s capital. Which is fine. Mercedes-Benz is a good stadium. The Bills and Chiefs would score a million points there.

You know, if it comes to that.

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