One of the NFL’s brightest young stars is gonna want a do-over.
The Jacksonville Jaguars entered their AFC Wild Card Game against the Los Angeles Chargers, riding a wave of success. Jacksonville, led by Trevor Lawrence and a playmaking defense, hadn’t lost a game since the first Sunday of December. Come the postseason, with “Golden Boy” Lawrence making his playoff debut, the Jaguars looked like a real force to be reckoned with.
That is, until Lawrence actually had to play against the Chargers’ defense. The Jaguars had three first-quarter possessions on Saturday night. And on each of them, Lawrence threw a brutal pick as L.A. capitalized by amassing a 17-0 lead. Through 15 minutes of play, the young QB had the same number of completions (3) as interceptions (also 3!) through one quarter.
You probably couldn’t imagine a worse start to a postseason career for a young star. (Hey, not everyone can be Brock Purdy.)
By the time the Jaguars could even catch their breath, they were down 27-0 after Lawrence had thrown a fourth pick (!) halfway through the second quarter, three to Asante Samuel Jr. That put Lawrence in the dubious company of some of the worst NFL playoff debuts ever for a quarterback:
Players since 1991 to turn it over 4 times in 1st half of playoff game: Trevor Lawrence tonight vs Chargers Brian Hoyer 1/9/2016 vs Chiefs Dan Marino 1/15/2000 vs Jaguars
What was supposed to be a promising return to the postseason for a young Jaguars team on the rise instead turned into an early outright nightmare for the face of their franchise.
NO ONE has ever played like Purdy in their playoff debut.
Despite helping keep the San Francisco 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes alive in the regular season, no one understandably knew what to expect from rookie/former seventh-round pick Brock Purdy in his playoff debut Saturday. But then 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan let Purdy’s deep passing game loose, the monstrous San Francisco defense flexed its muscles, and Purdy-Mania officially extended into the postseason during a 49ers’ 41-23 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.
I should probably place that into a better context.
After a relatively sparkling statistical performance — where the young Purdy completed 18-of-30 passes, threw for 332 yards, and three scores while running for another — he officially did something no NFL rookie has ever achieved in the league’s history. It doesn’t tell the whole story, as Purdy had his uneven moments, but it definitely wasn’t normal.
With his playoff line officially logged, Purdy became the first-ever rookie NFL quarterback to create four touchdowns in his first playoff game. Yes, seriously. That is not a typo. All those better players you’re thinking of right now?
They don’t have this kind of accomplishment under their belt:
Brock Purdy is the first rookie QB with 4 total touchdowns in a playoff game. #FTTB@49ers
Make NFL history as the simultaneous quarterback of a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and you’ll probably want to celebrate with your people. That’s precisely what Purdy did as he met his family in the end zone after the 49ers advanced to the Divisional Round.
The 49ers will enter the next round as a presumed heavy favorite regardless of who their opponent is. They can thank Purdy for exceeding all individual expectations as he morphs into an early playoff sensation.
Nick Bosa and friends can flex their muscles on everyone in these playoffs.
There are two things every NFL team needs to win the Super Bowl.
The first component is quality quarterback play. Obviously. The second ingredient, and it’s more of a “1B” option than a clear second-fiddle, is timely defensive playmaking. And if that defense can bully just about anyone while giving said quarterback plenty of breathing room, well, it’s gravy on a potential Super Bowl biscuit mix.
The San Francisco 49ers must be counting their lucky stars they have such a dynamic, imposing defense. After a blowout 41-23 Wild Card win over the Seattle Seahawks to open the 2023 NFL Playoffs on Saturday afternoon, it certainly seems like DeMeco Ryans’ boys can push around any of the other Super Bowl heavyweights as they please.
For a little while, the Seahawks and Geno Smith had the 49ers’ defense on their heels. While somewhat inexplicable, it appeared the division rival factor, with the Seahawks knowing the 49ers so well, was coming into play. Despite San Francisco possessing a distinct talent advantage — especially in both trenches — Seattle held a 17-16 lead at the break. Despite some understandable miscues here and there, Smith, D.K. Metcalf (10 receptions, 136 yards, and two TDs), and Kenneth Walker III paced the game as they pleased.
As a result, a massive upset seemed to be in the cards. Or, at the very least, a tense playoff battle going down to the wire felt like an actual possibility. But as they have all year, the 49ers’ defense emphatically said “no” in the second half.
The tide turned toward the 49ers’ defensive stack of aces in their deck on an early third-quarter Seahawks’ red-zone possession. After the 49ers enjoyed a statement first possession to take back a 23-17 lead, Seattle just wanted to match them shot for shot. Anything less than points on another drive, and the game would likely start to get away from a considerable underdog.
Unfortunately, on a third and very long, Charles Omenihu brought Smith down for a sack while stripping the ball. When Nick Bosa recovered the ball for the 49ers, you knew this game was about to swing dramatically in San Francisco’s favor. After all, the worst place to be in a playoff game is to have the talent disadvantage while chasing a sizable deficit against a loaded defensive front free to pin its ears back:
Post-Smith fumble, the 49ers would march right down the field on the ensuing possession to take a commanding 31-17 position. And, unthinkably, San Francisco closed this Wild Card game on a 25-6 (!) second-half run to catapult itself into the Divisional Round. Meanwhile, after punching above its weight class for 30 minutes, here’s how Seattle’s offense fared on four short second-half possessions:
Fumble
Punt (a four-play, 13-yard drive!)
Pick by San Francisco’s Deommodore Lenoir
A garbage-time TD for pride by Metcalf after the two-minute warning
A staggering catalog of defensive events, given the Seahawks’ early first-half haymakers. Well, it’s the defensive output to be expected going in. We just more or less saw it on delay.
As the 49ers advance to the next round, their initial defensive performance really makes you consider what the NFL’s No. 1 defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and scoring is capable of through the rest of the postseason. Yes, the Seahawks were overmatched from the jump, but such a sentiment will broadly apply to everyone else the 49ers could potentially play in January … and February. The top-seeded Eagles are the only realistic NFC team that could land enough punches on Ryans’s intimidating defensive unit to make it sweat. Minnesota, Dallas, and Tampa Bay — one of which will be San Francisco’s next victim — probably won’t be prepared for the monumental challenge. The gifted 49ers won’t let them because they’re ready for every wrinkle by default.
The 49ers opened their 2023 postseason by capping an 11th straight victory. And rather than just punch their ticket to the NFL’s final eight, it felt like a massive statement by San Francisco’s defense to the rest of the NFC playoff field.
Kyle Shanahan knew the Seahawks would be sitting on short routes. Deep throws, even when they missed, discombobulated Seattle.
In the first playoff start of his career, rookie Brock Purdy — the 262nd and final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft — came out firing. And, more often than not, missing.
After thriving in the short-target, big gain offense upon which the San Francisco 49ers have long relied to prop up Jimmy Garoppolo, Purdy tried to blow up the Seattle Seahawks on the opening drive of his Wild Card debut. During the regular season, a stretch in which the former third-string QB went 5-0, Purdy’s 6.6 air yards per target ranked 33rd among 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 plays under their belt. San Francisco’s game plan was clear; set up an overwhelmed passer with easy throws, then let his playmakers carve out space after the catch.
This wasn’t the case Saturday afternoon. Each of his first three passes cleared at least 15 yards before getting to their target. After attempting 12 deep throws (20-plus yards downfield) in seven games during the regular season he threw 10 in the first half alone. And, more often than not, he missed.
via RBSDM.com
This did not slow the 49ers offense. In fact, it was integral to their success. Eight of San Francisco’s first nine drives ended in points, closing the door on a Seahawks team that came out swinging. How’d that happen?
It worked, in part, because Purdy’s sudden willingness to throw downfield — he finished the day with an average throw depth of 11.7 yards — scrambled Seattle’s safeties deep. So when he *did* complete his passes, mostly near the line of scrimmage, his stars had room to run and demoralize a rowdy defense.
There’s no better illustration of how this Niners offense works than a two-play stretch early in the second quarter. Facing first-and-10 in plus territory, Purdy blanked an open Deebo Samuel to lob a pass deep downfield, in coverage, where only the Seahawks had a chance at it. It was a bad read and a bad throw.
The very next play, with Seattle’s linebackers afraid of getting beat up the seam against a suddenly lively downfield passer, he hit George Kittle 5.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. The space afforded by deep threats and vertical routes elsewhere cleared enough room for the star tight end to turn it into a 14-yard gain and a first down.
This was enough to discombobulate the Seahawks and eventually make those long throws that failed to click in the first quarter easier as well. Here, Kyle Shanahan keeps Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel near the line of scrimmage against a three-man rush.
There are eight men in zone coverage, so there shouldn’t be room to operate deep. But three All-Pro playmakers are sidled up next to a rookie QB with a penchant for throwing short passes. So when Purdy puts the ball in the air, the Seattle second level looks like this:
That’s five defenders (including one not in frame) sitting on three players and their short routes. It creates a bubble for Brandon Aiyuk, who sneaks in front of the safety help deep and makes an easy catch for a 31 yard gain.
This was football judo. Shahanan leaned on the Seahawks one way, then had Purdy throw his weight in the opposite direction to flip the Seattle defense on its back. Pete Carroll’s defense never knew what to expect and was left playing catchup all afternoon to a quarterback who threw for 332 yards on 30 attempts despite completing only 36 percent of his deep throws.
Of course, those numbers were bolstered by the 49ers doing extremely 49ers things. They padded their league-best yards after catch numbers through stupefying athleticism.
This is how Brock Purdy wins; by flipping the script and creating opportunity even when missing throws. The rookie wasn’t as good as his 131.5 passer rating suggests, but he executed his gameplan to a T, minimized mistakes and burst like the Kool-Aid man through slivers of opportunity the Seahawk defense presented.
Don’t let that sell him short. Purdy also shined brightly under Saturday’s spotlight in a 41-23 win.
This is terrible news for the rest of the NFC. The 49ers offense rolled while relying on its normal run-after-catch wizardry. The 49ers offense rolled while botching deep balls. The 49ers offense rolled because Purdy rose to the level of his superstars and made you worry about him in every facet of the game.
Factor in more than 150 rushing yards and more than eight yards per carry from McCaffrey and Samuel and you’ve got so much more to plan around when you face San Francisco than just a brutalizing defense.
The San Francisco 49ers have interesting ways of killing defenses in the passing game with run threats and pre-snap motion.
It’s a long-held belief that you need a strong run game to be effective with play-action. Not true, and it’s been proven over time that it’s not true. What you need as an offense is the threat of the run, and run looks, to displace and fool a defense into thinking you’re going to zig, when zagging is all that’s on your mind.
If you have a great run game, however, and your offensive play-designer understands perfectly how to upset defensive assignments with play-action and pre-snap motion… well, you have what the San Francisco 49ers did to the Seattle Seahawks with 14:02 left in the fourth quarter of their Saturday wild-card game.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan comes into a stadium with a serious advantage in this regard, because the run game he’s designed over time is one of the NFL’s most diverse and effective. In-game, the little wrinkles he throws at defenses can open things up in ways defenses just can’t stop.
The play in question was a seven-yard pass from Brock Purdy to running back Elijah Mitchell. Pre-snap, this looked like a run — the 49ers had fullback Kyle Juszczyk motioning from left to right, and left guard Aaron Banks pulling the same way. With Mitchell in the backfield, this could have easily been a run, and you can see that Seattle’s linebackers reacted completely to that idea.
Purdy’s first read was backside to receiver Brandon Aiyuk, but Seattle cornerback Tariq Woolen had Aiyuk locked down. Now, Purdy had to deal with pressure, and he rolled right to get away from it.
Seattle’s defenders missed Mitchell entirely, which gave Mitchell a wide-open shot.
Brock Purdy & Elijah Mitchell (7-yd TD)
🔹 Time to Throw: 5.04 seconds 🔹 QB Speed: 11.17 mph 🔹 Target Separation: 16.2 yds*
“Kyle is going to make you have to defend the entire field,” Seahawks defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt said this week. “Because of the amount of weapons that he has, you have to account for everybody, so it makes it a difficult challenge. It’s not like you can rotate a coverage or do things where you can eliminate one guy, you have to defend all 11 guys out there on the field. He does a great job of scheming up, calling it, and everything else, so like I said, it’s a great challenge that we have in front of us.”
That touchdown put the 49ers up 31-17, and San Francisco put the final nail in on their next drive, with this 74-yard touchdown on a short pass from Purdy to Deebo Samuel. Again, we have Juszczyk as a motion variable — this time, moving from the formation to the backfield. And again, a fake to the running back (Christian McCaffrey this time), and San Francisco’s offense was off to the races.
🔹 Samuel's Top Speed: 20.37 mph 🔹 Yards After Catch: 67 🔹 YAC Over Expected: +51
The play was Samuel's fastest speed as a ball carrier this season; 4 receptions, 120 yards & TD (4 targets) on crossing routes today#SEAvsSF | #FTTBpic.twitter.com/a3jR217JmK
After the Seattle Seahawks stormed back from an early 10-0 deficit in the NFC Wild Card round opener, San Francisco seemed poised to at least go into halftime and regroup around a tenuous two-point lead. But Ward got a little overzealous when Geno Smith scrambled while trying to make something out of nothing on a late first-half play with mere seconds remaining.
As Smith clearly put himself in a sliding position, Ward dropped a very late shoulder on the quarterback. He was deservedly penalized 15 for unnecessary roughness, and the Seahawks would capitalize on Ward’s awful decision with a 56-yard Jason Myers field goal to take a shocking 17-16 lead going into the half:
Of course, there’s a long way to go in this matchup between division rivals, and anything can happen when it’s win-or-go-home. In fact, San Francisco would retake a 23-17 lead on their first possession of the second half.
But Ward may still regret this play all offseason if the 49ers — a bona fide Super Bowl contender — don’t come out with the victory.
The NFL has decided to become concerned about officiating after Week 18’s Seahawks-Rams game. We say, what took the NFL so long?
Several big-time shot-callers in the NFL are now Very Concerned about the state of officiating in the league based on the performance of Craig Wrolstad’s crew in Week 18’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle won that game 19-16 in overtime, and the result put the Seahawks in the playoffs, knocking the Detroit Lions out even before Detroit’s Sunday night game against the Green Bay Packers.
Multiple executives and coaches told ESPN’s Adam Schefter that the officiating had several lapses, all in Seattle’s favor, and all key elements in Seattle’s eventual win.
One anonymous source said that it was “The worst officiated game of the year.”
Schefter wrote that it wasn’t just the Rams and the Lions who were upset by the officiating in this particular game — the NFL’s Competition Committee also stood up and took notice.
From Schefter’s report:
One source told ESPN this week that the NFL must do a better job of screening, hiring and training its officials; the league can’t have games in which teams’ seasons are on the line and have questionable and impactful calls such as the ones in the Rams-Seahawks Week 18 game.
Officiating is an imperfect science, but the source said to ESPN that there should be ways to mitigate those types of mistakes.
All true, but where has this outrage been all season? NFL officiating has been a major problem all along, and Week 18 wasn’t the worst week. Not even close. You can go back to Week 15, when multiple crews blew multiple calls that affected games to various degrees.
There were the two fumble recovery touchdowns by Minnesota Vikings cornerback Chandon Sullivan that were called back — the only reason those didn’t affect Minnesota’s eventual win over the Indianapolis Colts is that the Vikings performed the greatest comeback win in NFL history.
There was the touchdown pass from Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to receiver Keelan Cole late in the Raiders’ game against the New England Patriots that shouldn’t have been a touchdown upon review — Cole’s second foot went out of bounds, but the crew didn’t see sufficient evidence to overturn the touchdown call — even though there was ample evidence on the FOX television replays.
And there were the series of officiating bungles that helped the New York Giants beat the Washington Commanders — primarily an obvious and missed pass interference penalty on New York cornerback Darnay Holmes — which referee John Hussey referred to as a “judgment call.”
Talk about a series of officiating decisions that affected playoff seedings? The 9-7-1 Giants wound up with the NFC’s six-seed, while the 8-8-1 Commanders were not in the postseason. Had Washington won that game, they would have flipped records with the Giants, and as the teams’ tie game was against each other, that’s another example of officiating deciding in part who gets to play in the tournament.
We have horrible roughing the passer penalties just about every week, based on rules that are flawed by design. We have officials who are confused about which team they want to penalize. And we have a VP of Officiating in former referee Walt Anderson who tends to take over postgame pool reports, leaving the officials in question to skate without any real public accountability.
So, it’s nice that some people in the league are concerned about the state of officiating as the postseason begins. Not that it will have any effect on the quality of work this weekend and beyond, but our question is: Where has this concern been all season? Because what happened in the Seahawks-Rams game was more par for the course than any kind of outlier in performance.
Mike Williams’ back injury will force him to miss the Chargers’ playoff game against the Jaguars.
The Los Angeles Chargers are 2.5-point road favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars for Saturday’s Wild Card playoff game, matching the smallest spread of the entire weekend.
With a spread so small and teams so up-and-down, bettors can’t agree on where to put their money.
When it comes to the spread, 57% of betslips and 59% of the handle backs the favored Chargers to cover, according to VSiN. But 57% of moneyline tickets and 62% of that handle is on Jacksonville.
Perhaps the difference is simply due to people chasing the better odds in a toss-up, but it’s also another indication of no clear consensus on this game.
That’s why an injury like the one Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams suffered is such a big deal. Williams is out 2-3 weeks after suffering a fracture in his back in a meaningless Week 18 game he didn’t need to play, ESPN’s Lindsey Thiry reported.
Chargers WR Mike Williams suffered a small non-surgical fracture in his back that was not found in initial X-ray and MRI. After Williams did not progress this week, further tests were ran that revealed the fracture, sources told ESPN. He is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.
I was riding with the Chargers prior to this news, but Williams’ injury is enough to make me want to jump to the other side.
LA’s defense is atrocious, particularly against the run. After allowing 181 rushing yards to the Cardinals in Week 12, a players-only meeting was called to address their league-worst run defense that was allowing an astronomical 5.4 yards per carry. Nothing has changed since.
The Chargers continued to allow 5.4 yards per carry through the end of the season, and now they get set to play a Jaguars team that ran for 151 yards in a 28-point win over LA in Week 3 before. And that was before stud running Travis Etienne was a big feature in the offense. That was also before Trevor Lawrence caught fire.
Suffice to say, there’s a chance the Chargers defense struggles to slow the Jags, which puts the pressure on Justin Herbert and the offense to respond without much of their own running game to speak of. They’ll be airing it out a lot, and that becomes a lot harder with their leading receiver on the sideline.
In their first game against Jacksonville, which Keenan Allen missed, Williams was held in check and Herbert was forced to throw to guys like Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter, tight end Gerald Everett, and of course running back Austin Ekeler.
If the Jaguars can similarly key on and eliminate Allen the way they did Williams, those secondary targets will have to step up big time. I’m not saying they’re incapable, but the guys on the other side are starting to feel like a better bet.
Where are they now? Well, you may see some former Raiders are on playoff teams this weekend.
They say ‘Once a Raiders, always a Raider’. Well, if you’re wondering which former Raiders players are on teams set to take the field this weekend, this is your guide to which players are on which teams and when they’re set to play.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Sat, 1:30pm Pacific (4:30 ET)
Seahawks
S Johnathan Abram
DI Shelby Harris
DE Bruce Irvin
G Gabe Jackson
DT Quinton Jefferson
LB Tanner Muse
Practice Squad
TE Jacob Hollister
49ers
Injured Reserve
DT Maurice Hurst
Practice Squad
WR Willie Snead
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sat, 5:15 Pacific (8:15 ET)
Chargers
DE Khalil Mack
DC Renaldo Hill
Practice Squad
WR Keelan Doss
Jaguars
WR Zay Jones
DE Arden Key
Practice Squad
S Tyree Gillespie
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Sun, 10am Pacific (1pm ET)
Dolphins
FB Alec Ingold
Practice Squad
G Lester Cotton
QB Mike Glennon
Bills
RB Taiwan Jones
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Sun, 1:30pm Pacific (4:30 ET)
Giants
DT Justin Ellis
C Jon Feliciano
DT Jihad Ward
DC Don Martindale
Practice Squad
DT Vernon Butler (2022 offseason roster)
WR Jaydon Mickens (2018 UDFA signing)
Vikings
QB Nick Mullens (2022 offseason roster)
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, 5:15pm (8:15 ET)
Ravens
RB Kenyan Drake
WR Demarcus Robinson (2022 offseason roster)
CB Daryl Worley
Practice Squad
DT David Sharpe
G John Simpson
Bengals
OC Brian Callahan
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mon, 5:15pm Pacific (8:15 ET)
In a completely unpredictable Week 18 where teams were bound to rest starters in preparation for the playoffs and unders were right there for the taking, I went with the bold strategy of picking five overs as part of my weekly pick-six.
Yeah, that didn’t work out well.
Thankfully, the playoffs are here this weekend, and barring injuries, we can count on the best players being on the field. So, guess what? I’m doubling down on overs with a pick-six full of ’em!
Each of these players also work well as anytime touchdown scorers, if you ask me. So have a little fun if you dare.
