Tag: sleeper tight ends

Sleepers and Value Picks: Tight Ends

2022 Sleeper and Value Plays at Tight End

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot. No color means the pick is a reasonable value at that spot.

See also:

Average Draft order – Value picks

ADP Tm Tight End
1 KC Travis Kelce GOAT tight end. Period.
2 BAL Mark Andrews Lock for Top-5 and all that passing in 2021 propped him up to No 1. BAL intends less passing this year but Andrews still rock solid.
3 SF George Kittle Another lock for Top-5 when healthy. Change in QB could impact, but Kittle will remain heavily involved.
4 ATL Kyle Pitts Set rookie records and already broke 1,000 yards. Change in QB could hurt but Pitts will eventually be the next Travis Kelce.
5 LVR Darren Waller After two monster seasons, Waller regressed and missed five games. He’ll remain a factor, but addition of Davante Adams will knock down everyone’s targets.
6 DET T.J. Hockenson Was No. 5 in 2020 when healthy but finished 2021 on IR with the thumb injury. Influx of new receivers for Lions means Hockenson has to share more, but he’s a solid pick in a position that offers so few difference-makers.
7 DAL Dalton Schultz Ended as the No. 3 fantasy TE last year. Playing under franchise tag so everything to win with a big year. DAL running short of receivers to start the season.
8 PHI Dallas Goedert Has been a Top-8 TE for a few seasons, but should lose a few targets to A.J. Brown as the new possession guy. In a thin position, he won’t kill you but won’t be a difference-maker.
9 BUF Dawson Knox This is likely his ceiling, but scored nine times last year. If you waited on a TE1, Knox is a reasonable fall back.
10 ARI Zach Ertz Bounced back from a bad 2020 when he went to ARI and helped out when DeAndre Hopkins was out. This isn’t a bad pick but Cards added receivers and Ertz turns 32.
11 PIT Pat Freiermuth As a rookie, logged the No. 13 spot last year with 60 catches for 497 yards. Should be at least incrementally better with upside.
12 MIA Mike Gesicki MIA added Tyreek Hill and the offense has more weapons. This is about where Gesicki has been for three years.
13 NE Hunter Henry Went to NE where he still had his normal 600 yards but added a career-best nine touchdowns. Solid TE2 that can become a starter if needed.
14 CHI Cole Kmet The  touchdowns are lacking to be sure, but while the Bears struggled to pass in   2021, Kmet logged 60 catches for 612 yards. Only Darnell Mooney had more receptions for the Bears.
15 WAS Logan Thomas Tore his ACL, MCL and meniscus in December. Started camp on PUP. Not remotely interested.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP Tm Tight End
16 GB Robert Tonyan Jr. Tore his ACL in Week 8 last year and it was said to “remain unclear” if he’d be ready for Week 1. What is very clear is that he won’t be on my team.
17 IND Mo Alie-Cox Yeah, has never been better than the No. 26 in a position where only a dozen matter. I want at least the chance that my players can offer a fantasy start.
18 TEN Austin Hooper Had a couple of Top-10 seasons with the Falcons and now becomes the TE1 for the Titans. Solid backup with upside.
19 MIN Irv Smith Jr. He was touted as being a big part of the passing plans for Vikes. This deep is a great hold-and-see. Had thumb injury this month but is expected to be good for Week 1.
20 CIN Hayden Hurst Moves to CIN after stints in BAL and ATL. Becomes the TE1 and offers a bye week filler.
21 SEA Noah Fant Landed in Seattle as part of the Russell Wilson trade. Was solid with 60 catches for 650 yards in Denver for three years. Turnover at QB for Seahawks means there could be more upside in an offense re-establishing passing trends.
22 JAC Evan Engram He hasn’t looked great in camp for his new team, but this deep means he’s a hold to see if he catches any spark with the Jags.
23 LAR Tyler Higbee Bye week filler as another 500-yard TE.
24 TB Kyle Rudolph Signed a one-year deal to help replace Rob Gronkowski. But he’s turning 33 years old and hasn’t been better than No. 38 since 2019.

Best of the Rest

David Njoku (CLE) – Worth watching if not draft and hold for whatever happens when DeShaun Watson finally shows up. Previous peak was 56-639- 4 back in 2018.

Brevin Jordan (HOU) – Quiet rookie year but enters 2022 as the TE1 in Houston.  Worth a watch for any second-year progress.

Sleepers and Value Plays: Tight Ends

2021 Sleeper and Value Plays at Tight End

A sleeper tight end is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com using only recent drafts.

See also:
Sleepers and Value Plays: Wide Receivers
Sleepers and Value Plays: Running Backs
Sleepers and Value Plays: Wide Receivers

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.

Average Draft order – Value plays

ADP Tm Tight End
1 KC Travis Kelce Year-end rank the last five years = 1, 1, 1, 2, 1. Mic drop…
2 LV Darren Waller No. 2 tight end the last two years.
3 SF George Kittle Top-3 when healthy. Still a difference-maker.
4 ATL Kyle Pitts Why not? After the Top-3, the fantasy value always plunges. Rookie tight ends are almost never fantasy relevant but Pitts isn’t really a tight end so much as just a weapon wherever he lines up. When’s the last time anyone was this excited about a new tight end?
5 BAL Mark Andrews Tailed off some from his 2019 season when he was No. 5. He’s less risk than the remaining tight ends but a very marginal difference-maker, if at all.
6 DET T.J. Hockenson Third-year for the former 1.08 pick in 2019. Was No. 5 last year and should be even better. New offense and quarterback complicates forecasting, but he has as much upside as any other tight end. Better yet – you can grab him in the fifth or sixth round.
7 PHI Dallas Goedert Zach Ertz did not leave the Eagles (at least yet), so that dings Goedert a bit, and injuries depressed his 2020 stats. He’s a safe pick to offer average tight end fantasy points and has a bit of upside.
8 WAS Logan Thomas After a position change, five years and four teams, Thomas had 72-670-6 with Washington after only 35 previous career catches. His 110 targets came from quarterbacks no longer on the roster and even Ryan Fitzpatrick can throw deep – unlike Alex Smith. He’ll regress. He’s already 30 years old.
9 DEN Noah Fant Good spot for Fant who turned in 62-673-3 in his second year. The former first-rounder from 2019 still has room to grow.
10 NE Hunter Henry Henry never was better than the No. 10 fantasy tight end, so this may be a little high. The Pats coughed up $37.5M for three years, so they intend on using the 26-year-old.
11 GB Robert Tonyan Jr. He may regress from his 11 touchdowns last year, but Aaron Rodgers is back and Tonyan is once again fantasy relevant.
12 NYG Evan Engram Engram hasn’t been better than the No. 13 tight end for the last three years. There is no reason to expect that to change.

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP Tm Tight End
13 TB Rob Gronkowski He’s a decent backup. He mixes in several great games with a number of flops, so you need to be lucky when you cover a bye week.
14 LAR Tyler Higbee Take away the five games that ended 2019 and Higbee is “just another tight end.” The departure of Gerald Everett could open things up for Higbee, and those five big games he had were when Everett was out (and they faced the worst defenses vs. tight ends). He could improve but new quarterback in Matt Stafford and throw deep.
15 MIA Mike Gesicki Gesicki was already the No. 7 tight end last year. Fins did add more wideouts this year, but Gesicki caught 23 passes over this final four games with Tua Tagovailoa. He’s a very nice backup to be sure.
16 MIN Irv Smith Jr. Kyle Rudolph is gone and the 2.18 pick out of Alabama in 2019 gets a better chance to step up. There’s conflicting reports from the Vikings as to whether Smith gets more work or not, but this deep he makes a great backup with upside.
17 NO Adam Trautman He’s on some sleeper lists but only managed 15 catches as a rookie. The Saints choose between Jameis Winston throwing deep or Taysom Hill running the ball. Trautman isn’t likely to do more than cover a bye week and maybe not that well.
18 LAC Jared Cook He’s 34 and on his sixth NFL team. But he still managed 504 yards and seven touchdowns for the Saints last year. Now with the Chargers, he’s worth a roster spot as a fall back since the Bolts are installing a new offense – the one Cook just came from in New Orleans.
19 NE Jonnu Smith He’s been locked at 400 yards or so each year with the Titans and had a freakish eight scores last year after never producing more than three behind Delanie Walker. Moving to the Pats as their No. 2 tight end isn’t likely to produce fantasy-relevant stats.
20 PHI Zach Ertz Now 30 years old, Ertz broke down last year and falls behind Dallas Goedert on the depth chart. He’s only interesting if he is traded to a team that needs an aging tight end.

Best of the Rest

Cole Kmet (CHI) – The first tight end drafted in 2020 enters his second year – when most tight ends take a leap. Well worth a backup pick. He’s fast and a better receiver than a blocker.

Eric Ebron (PIT) – The 28-year-old was the No. 15 fantasy tight end in his first season in Pittsburgh last year. He merits being one of the earlier backups drafted.