Tag: 2020 MLB stat projections

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (21-24) host the Miami Marlins (18-24) Friday for the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami has lost 4 of its last 5 games which includes a 2-1 series loss at home vs. the Braves last weekend. The Marlins are 4-6 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.

Atlanta split a 4-game home series with the Philadelphia Phillies after losing 4-1 Thursday in the series finale and is 5-5 SU in its last 10 contests.

Season series: Tied 3-3 but the Braves have a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.

Marlins at Braves projected starters

LHP Tyler Rogers vs. RHP Ian Anderson

Rogers is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 36 1/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 5-3, May 20 at home vs. the Braves with 4 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Braves: 0-2 with a 5.00 ERA (9 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 4 BB and 9 K across 2 starts.

Anderson is 3-3 with a 4.07 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 42 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 4-3, Sunday at the Marlins with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Marlins: 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 13 H, 5 BB and 10 K across 2 starts.

Marlins at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:48 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Marlins at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 6, Braves 4

Money line

BET MARLINS (+115) because of the line freeze in the betting market in spite of the dip in Rogers’ numbers year over year and Atlanta’s 9-6 SU record vs. left-handed pitching.

Nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Braves according to pregame.com but their number has barely budged off the opener. This tells us that the oddsmakers are comfortable with their price and welcome more pro-Atlanta action.

However, Rogers has electric stuff and has pitched much better on the road this season. Rogers hasn’t allowed a homer on the road and his 2.81 road FIP and 15.4% K-BB% on the road are much better than his home marks of a 7.38 FIP and 8.2% K-BB%. The opposite is true of Anderson’s home/road splits.

Miami’s lineup is in the top-10 of several advanced hitting metrics vs. right-handed pitching and Anderson has a career 1-3 record against the Marlins with a 4.50 ERA and 1.84 WHIP (both worse than his career marks).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Marlins +1.5 (-175) are out of my price range and Miami’s alternate RL is a no-go since the Marlins are just 6-14 RL as favorites.

Over/Under

PASS because we are late to the party since the market has steamed the juice up on the total.

I prefer the Over 8.5 (-130) because the Braves are 15-5-2 O/U as home favorites and Marlins-Braves are 3-1-1 O/U in their last 5 meetings.

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MLB Prop Bet Payday: Top 10 MLB season props to bank on

Analyzing the top 10 MLB season prop bets that should be exploited for easy wins.

The 60-game MLB season begins Thursday, July 23. The truncated season means player stats will look different. Nonetheless, there is action to be had with prop bets for the coming season. Below, we look at BetMGM futures odds, making our picks and best bets for the top 10 MLB season props to bank on.

2020 top 10 MLB season props

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, July 17 at 5 a.m. ET.

1. Paul Goldschmidt’s batting average: .275

(Over -115/Under -115)

St. Louis Cardinals 1B Paul Goldschmidt has become a slow starter, struggling the last two seasons in March, April and May. But this 2020 MLB season is July, August and September. He batted .274 from March to May in 2019 and .209 in 2018 during the same months. Take the UNDER .275 (-115) for his batting average this season.

2. Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts: 104.5

(Over -115/Under -115)

Gerrit Cole should get 12 starts for his new team, the New York Yankees, this season. He had 112 strikeouts in his first 12 starts last season and 116 in his first 12 starts of 2018. Take the OVER 104.5 (-115).

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3. Gerrit Cole’s wins: 6.5

(Over -130/Under +100)

Cole has had more than six wins in his first 12 starts of a season only once in the last four years – and that was 2015. He’ll have the quality Yankees lineup to give him support, but it’s smart to go with history. Go UNDER 6.5 (+100).

4. Arizona Diamondbacks’ runs: 299.5

(Over -125/Under -105)

The Diamondbacks averaged 5.01 runs per game last season. They upgraded two bats in the lineup with CF Starling Marte and RF Kole Calhoun. That, combined with a likely scenario in which batters are better than pitchers early in the season, means the Diamondbacks will not struggle to score runs. Go OVER 299.5 (-125).

5. J.D. Martinez’s home runs: 14.5

(Over -110/Under -120)

To hit 15 home runs in 2020, Boston Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez will need to average one every four games he plays – and that’s playing every game. He has averaged fewer than four games per homer only once in the last three seasons. Go UNDER 14.5 (-110).

Jul 12, 2020; Boston; J.D. Martinez during practice at Fenway Park. (Photo Credit: Brian Fluharty – USA TODAY Sports)

6. J.D. Martinez’s hits: 62.5

(Over -115/Under -115)

In his last two seasons, Martinez averaged 1.23 hits per game, while appearing in 91.3% of Boston’s games. In a 60-game season, that means playing in 55 games and getting 67-68 hits. Take OVER 62.5 (-115).

7. Jose Altuve’s batting average: .300

(Over -115/Under -115)

Houston Astros 2B Jose Altuve only batted .298 in 2019, snapping five consecutive seasons of .313 or higher. Take OVER .300 (-115).

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8. Clayton Kershaw’s strikeouts: 70.5

(Over -115/Under -115)

If Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw makes all 12 of his starts this season and averages only six innings per outing, he will pitch 72 innings. He has averaged at least nine strikeouts every nine innings in four of the last five seasons. In his career, the future Hall of Famer averages 1.08 strikeouts per inning. Using his career rate, he would have 71 strikeouts if he made only 11 starts and averaged only six innings per start. Take the OVER 70.5 (-115).

9. Freddie Freeman’s batting average: .295

(Over -115/Under -115)

Atlanta Braves 1B Freddie Freeman has batted at least .295 four seasons in a row. Go OVER .295 (-115).

10. Aaron Judge’s home runs: 15.5

(Over -110/Under -120)

Based on Aaron Judge’s last two seasons, the Yankees slugger averaged a home run every 3.96 games. At that rate, he would have 15 if he played in every single game. Take the UNDER 15.5 (-120).

Want action on any 2020 MLB futures? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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