The 60-game MLB season begins Thursday, July 23. The truncated season means player stats will look different. Nonetheless, there is action to be had with prop bets for the coming season. Below, we look at BetMGM futures odds, making our picks and best bets for the top 10 MLB season props to bank on.
2020 top 10 MLB season props
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, July 17 at 5 a.m. ET.
1. Paul Goldschmidt’s batting average: .275
(Over -115/Under -115)
St. Louis Cardinals 1B Paul Goldschmidt has become a slow starter, struggling the last two seasons in March, April and May. But this 2020 MLB season is July, August and September. He batted .274 from March to May in 2019 and .209 in 2018 during the same months. Take the UNDER .275 (-115) for his batting average this season.
2. Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts: 104.5
(Over -115/Under -115)
Gerrit Cole should get 12 starts for his new team, the New York Yankees, this season. He had 112 strikeouts in his first 12 starts last season and 116 in his first 12 starts of 2018. Take the OVER 104.5 (-115).
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3. Gerrit Cole’s wins: 6.5
(Over -130/Under +100)
Cole has had more than six wins in his first 12 starts of a season only once in the last four years – and that was 2015. He’ll have the quality Yankees lineup to give him support, but it’s smart to go with history. Go UNDER 6.5 (+100).
4. Arizona Diamondbacks’ runs: 299.5
(Over -125/Under -105)
The Diamondbacks averaged 5.01 runs per game last season. They upgraded two bats in the lineup with CF Starling Marte and RF Kole Calhoun. That, combined with a likely scenario in which batters are better than pitchers early in the season, means the Diamondbacks will not struggle to score runs. Go OVER 299.5 (-125).
5. J.D. Martinez’s home runs: 14.5
(Over -110/Under -120)
To hit 15 home runs in 2020, Boston Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez will need to average one every four games he plays – and that’s playing every game. He has averaged fewer than four games per homer only once in the last three seasons. Go UNDER 14.5 (-110).
6. J.D. Martinez’s hits: 62.5
(Over -115/Under -115)
In his last two seasons, Martinez averaged 1.23 hits per game, while appearing in 91.3% of Boston’s games. In a 60-game season, that means playing in 55 games and getting 67-68 hits. Take OVER 62.5 (-115).
7. Jose Altuve’s batting average: .300
(Over -115/Under -115)
Houston Astros 2B Jose Altuve only batted .298 in 2019, snapping five consecutive seasons of .313 or higher. Take OVER .300 (-115).
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8. Clayton Kershaw’s strikeouts: 70.5
(Over -115/Under -115)
If Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw makes all 12 of his starts this season and averages only six innings per outing, he will pitch 72 innings. He has averaged at least nine strikeouts every nine innings in four of the last five seasons. In his career, the future Hall of Famer averages 1.08 strikeouts per inning. Using his career rate, he would have 71 strikeouts if he made only 11 starts and averaged only six innings per start. Take the OVER 70.5 (-115).
9. Freddie Freeman’s batting average: .295
(Over -115/Under -115)
Atlanta Braves 1B Freddie Freeman has batted at least .295 four seasons in a row. Go OVER .295 (-115).
10. Aaron Judge’s home runs: 15.5
(Over -110/Under -120)
Based on Aaron Judge’s last two seasons, the Yankees slugger averaged a home run every 3.96 games. At that rate, he would have 15 if he played in every single game. Take the UNDER 15.5 (-120).
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