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Utah State vs. San Diego State: Why The Aggies Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Aggies look to stop a two-game slide on the road against the Aztecs. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire
Desperate times for both teams on the Mesa.
WEEK 10: Utah State Aggies (3-5, 1-3 Mountain West) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (3-5, 1-3 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, November 4 — 5:00 PM MT/4:00 PM MT
WHERE: Snapdragon Stadium; San Diego, CA
WEATHER: Patchy fog, low of 55 degrees
TV: FS1
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes FS1, by following this link.
RADIO: The Utah State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Radio Network, including flagship 1280 The Zone (KZNS) in Salt Lake City. The San Diego State broadcast can be found in and around San Diego on 760 AM (KGB).
SERIES RECORD: San Diego State leads the all-time series, 13-3. In the last meeting on December 4, 2021, the Aggies defeated the Aztecs, 46-13, in Carson for the Mountain West championship.
LAST GAME: Utah State lost on the road to San Jose State, 42-21, while San Diego State lost at home to Nevada, 6-0.
WEBSITES: UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website | GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Utah State | San Diego State
ODDS: Utah State -2
SP+ PROJECTION: San Diego State by 0.4
FEI PROJECTION: Utah State by 1.6
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Utah State 53.75% win probability (28.15-26.91)
After a week off to dull the sting of back-to-back defeats, the Utah State Aggies hit the road to California one more time on Saturday afternoon to take on the San Diego State Aztecs.
Neither team has seen their 2023 season unfold according to plan, but with just four games left to collect three more wins for bowl eligibility, there’s still plenty of motivation in Blake Andersen’s locker room to repeat the performance they had during their last visit to southern California two seasons ago.
Here’s what Utah State can do to beat the Aztecs.
Three Keys to a Utah State Victory
1. Be at least a little less careless with the football than the Aztecs.
One thing that both the Aggies and San Diego State have in common is that the defenses have been surprisingly adept at creating turnovers and the offenses… well, the less said the better. Suffice it to say that both teams have a -4 margin in their respective five losses.
Half the battle of winning this game, then, might simply come down to not losing it with boneheaded mistakes. Fairly or not, much of that responsibility will fall on young quarterback McCae Hillstead, whose 5.9% interception rate on 119 attempts has taken them out of games in the past and could do so again on Saturday against Noah Tumblin and a still-dangerous SDSU pass defense that has nine interceptions and trails only Wyoming among Mountain West teams with 44 total passes defended.
2. Make Jalen Mayden miserable.
The Aztecs quarterback hasn’t really taken a step forward in 2023 like fans on the Mesa hoped he could. According to Pro Football Focus, Mayden’s 1.9% big-time throw rate is the lowest among qualifying Mountain West quarterbacks while his 5.1% turnover-worthy rate is the third-highest.
While he’s made up for it by being the team’s leading rusher through eight games (400 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns), there’s a chance for the Utah State pass rush to get right. That’s because the rest of the Aztecs ground attack has been largely anemic in conference play, averaging only 3.85 yards per carry as a team, which means that much of San Diego State’s hopes of holding serve at home is probably going to revolve around how much #18 can accomplish.
If the Aggies can make the Aztecs one-dimensional, they could tee off against an offensive line that hasn’t given up a ton of sacks — 18 in all — but has seen Mayden succumb to a disproportional amount of pressure: Per PFF, his 20.4% pressure-to-sack ratio is also the third-highest in the conference.
3. Matriculate down the field.
For all of San Diego State’s current issues, they’ve been surprisingly consistent about setting themselves up with substantial field position advantages on both sides of the ball. As Parker Fleming notes in his advanced statistics preview, the Aztecs’ +5.2-yard net is the fifth-best mark in the country.
Turnovers aside, Utah State has at least done well on offense in turning those potential disadvantages into points, averaging 1.91 points on drives that begin inside their own 20-yard line. Doing so just once or twice against the San Diego State defense might be more than enough to keep the home team at arm’s length.
Prediction
Both teams in this contest have been hard to predict from week to week, but the Aggies really have to find a way to make stops against a maddening San Diego State offense if they don’t want this game to be too close for comfort. The Aztecs have scored ten or fewer points in four of their last six contests, so while that probably won’t happen again, they also don’t have the explosive capability that Utah State demonstrates when they fire on all cylinders.
In all, this is probably going to be a frustrating game to watch no matter where your rooting interests lie, but I think the Aggies are more likely to create a break that puts them in the driver’s seat.
Utah State 28, San Diego State 16
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