It’s time to tee it up at the King’s place. This week the PGA Tour is in Orlando, Florida, for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. Defending champion Bryson DeChambeau is not in the field as he was forced to withdraw due to an injury.
The No. 1 ranked player in the world, Jon Rahm, will be making his tournament debut this week and is the betting favorite at +750.
The top of the betting odds list features some of the biggest names in the game including past champion Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, and recent first-time winner Scottie Scheffler. However, there’s a bunch of value further down the list, starting with another past champion of this event.
Can anyone catch the Florida State product at PGA National?
DB is vibin’. After nearly holding a share of the 18-hole lead, Daniel Beger kept it rolling on Friday with a second consecutive 65.
Berger has made just one bogey through the first two days in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, just minutes away from where he lives. The U.S. Ryder Cupper missed last year’s Honda Classic, but tied for fourth in 2019.
Chris Kirk followed up his opening-round 65 with a 68 on Friday and sits at 7 under, three shots behind Berger. Kirk is coming off a top-15 finish in Scottsdale at the WM Phoenix Open but hasn’t won on Tour since the 2014-15 season.
It’s going to take a low weekend for someone to catch the Florida State product Berger, who sits at 10 under. Here are the betting odds heading into the weekend at PGA National.
Billy Horschel is coming off a T-6 in Scottsdale. Will he take home the hardware this week?
The last week of the West Coast swing did not disappoint as Joaquin Niemann collected his second PGA Tour victory and entered the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking for the first time in his career (He’s also No. 19 in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings). Now it’s time to kick off the Florida swing with this week’s Honda Classic.
PGA National (Champion)
Par 70
7,125 Greens: Bermuda Defending champion: Matt Jones
A detailed view of the Bear Trap statue outside of the 15th hole during the final round of The Honda Classic golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Weather
Day
Temperature
Conditions
Percent chance of rain
Wind & Direction
Tuesday
79
Partly Sunny
16 percent
17 MPH (ESE)
Wednesday
80
Partly Cloudy
12 percent
11 MPH (E)
Thursday
80
Partly Cloudy
14 percent
14 MPH (ESE)
Friday
81
Partly Cloudy
6 percent
11 MPH (ESE)
Saturday
81
Mostly Sunny
5 percent
10 MPH (E)
Sunday
83
Mostly Sunny
6 percent
9 MPH (SSE)
Key statistics
Strokes Gained: Approach: This is a tough golf course, one of the toughest the guys will play all year long. It will be critical to make it as easy as possible with hitting greens and getting through the Bear Trap unscathed. Let’s target players who’ve been striking their irons great recently.
Bermuda putting: Putting on Bermuda greens can be tricky, especially for players who don’t see them every week (AKA: the guys who don’t live in the South). May be a good idea to target players who putt well on this kind of surface.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Ridgewood Country Club, 2. Olympia Fields Country Club, 3. Liberty National Golf Club
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Daniel Berger (6.1 percent), 2. Sungjae Im (5.9 percent), 3. Joaquin Niemann (4.8 percent)
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Andy and I discuss the Saudi Arabia situation, the Genesis Invitational, Rory McIlroy taking shots at Phil Mickelson, this week’s Honda Classic, several picks for the week, and more.
Rory McIlroy – Top 20: Cash (+110)
Will Zalatoris – Top 20: Miss
Adam Hadwin – Top Canadian: Undecided (not a single Canadian made the cut, might be a push)
Adam Scott – Top 20: Cash (+170)
Joaquin Niemann – Top South American: Cash (+170)
Xander Schauffele – Top 20: Cash (+110)
Rory McIlroy – Outright: Miss
Xander Schauffele – Outright: Miss
Will Zalatoris – Outright: Miss
+4.6 units on position plays (if Hadwin Top Canadian is a push), and -3 units on outrights at Genesis Invitational.
+13.39 units on position plays in 2022. +17.5 units on outright plays in 2022.
Billy Horschel – Top 20 (+125)
Billy Horschel hits his tee shot on the 18th hole of the North Course at Torrey Pines during the first round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament, Wednesday, January 26, 2022, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)
In his last five appearances at the Honda, Horschel missed the weekend in 2018 but has also accumulated three top 20s which includes two top 10s and a top five.
Keith Mitchell – Top 20 (+170)
Keith Mitchell celebrates after winning the Honda Classic golf tournament at PGA National (Champion). Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Mitchell’s career at the Honda has been the ultimate mixed bag. In four appearances he has a win, two missed cuts, and a T-53 last season (although, that T-53 came after a stretch of missing four cuts in his last five starts).
He’s made four starts so far in 2022 and despite missing the cut at the Farmers, in his other three starts, doesn’t have a finish worse than T-12.
Of the players in this field over his last 12 rounds, Mitchell is first in SG: Ball-striking, second in SG: Off the Tee, and 11th in SG: Approach.
Alex Noren – Top 20 (+170)
Sweden’s Alex Noren watches his drive from the 1st tee during a practice round for The 149th British Open Golf Championship at Royal St George’s, Sandwich in south-east England on July 14, 2021. (Photo by Glyn KIRK)
Noren’s career at the Honda is also a mixed bag. In his last three appearances, he’s finished third, missed the cut, and tied for 46th. A few weeks ago, Noren bagged a top 10 at the WM Phoenix Open and has made the weekend in his last three starts. In a weaker field, don’t be surprised if he makes a run.
*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, February 23rd.
Niemann leads by two, but several major champions are lurking on the leaderboard.
People love to say that the hardest thing to do in golf is following up a low round with another one. Well, Joaquin Niemann would like a word. After a Thursday 63, Niemann fired yet another 63 around Riveria Country Club on Friday and leads by two entering the weekend at the Genesis Invitational.
The Chilean started well here last season with rounds of 67 and 68 but struggled on Saturday with a 78. So the curtains shouldn’t be closed quite yet.
Cameron Young, a PGA Tour rookie, caught fire on Friday shooting a 62 which included a stretch of four straight birdies. Young sits two shots behind Niemann.
There are several of the biggest names in golf lurking on the leaderboard hoping to turn in a low one on moving day to inch towards the lead. A few of those names are included in the picks below.
Pacific Palisades, California, USA; Adam Scott hits from the second tee during the first round of the Genesis Invitational golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
It’s tough to win a golf tournament when you’re entering the final two rounds seven back of the lead, but if anyone can do it, especially at Riviera, it’s Adam Scott.
Scott won this event two years ago and finished T-7 in 2019. He’s comfortable around this track and is rolling the rock well. He gained over two strokes on the greens on Friday.
Jordan Spieth (9 under, +900)
Jordan Spieth looks on from the 13th green during the second round of The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club on February 18, 2022 in Pacific Palisades, California. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Not sure there’s a more entertaining man to watch than Spieth. He’s a master with a wedge in his hand and showed that with a short game master class on Friday.
He’s driving it with confidence which may make the difference this weekend. He has work to do, especially after making bogey at the last, but it’s worth keeping an eye on him.
Justin Thomas (11 under, +325)
Justin Thomas reacts to a missed putt for birdie on the 13th green during the second round of The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
JT was swinging it incredibly well on Friday, but that’s not usually the problem. His putter came alive a bit during the second round, highlighted by a nice eagle putt on 11 and a long birdie on 16.
He’s capable of firing a Saturday 62/63, which is why a small sprinkle on him may be worth it.
Every player in the Official World Golf Ranking top 10 will tee it up in LA.
We got one. We finally got one. After having Russell Henley at the Sony Open (lost in a playoff) and Will Zalatoris at the Farmers Insurance Open (lost in a playoff), we cashed an outright ticket with Scottie Scheffler (+3000) at the WM Phoenix Open. Now it’s time to grab another one at the Genesis Invitational.
This is one of the best weeks of the year. In my opinion, outside of Augusta National, Riviera is the best golf course the PGA Tour plays on an annual basis. It’s a true test of ball-striking and does a fantastic job of separating players who are on their game, and who are not.
The top 10 players in the world are here. Let’s have a week.
Golf course
Riviera Country Club
Par 71 – Genesis Scorecard
7,322 yards Greens: Poa Defending champion: Max Homa
The 10th hole at Riviera Country Club, site of the Genesis Invitational. (Photo: Todd Kelly/Golfweek)
Weather
Day
Temperature
Conditions
Percent chance of rain
Wind & Direction
Tuesday
58
Rainy
46 percent
10 MPH (SSE)
Wednesday
67
Sunny
2 percent
7 MPH (SSE)
Thursday
72
Sunny
2 percent
6 MPH (SW)
Friday
75
Sunny
0 percent
7 MPH (SSW)
Saturday
73
Sunny
0 percent
8 MPH (SSW)
Sunday
66
Partly Cloudy
2 percent
7 MPH (SSE)
Key statistics
SG: Ball-striking: This course is the ultimate test of golf. If the guys don’t have every aspect of their game in top-notch form, they won’t be able to contend. Riviera is a ball-strikers paradise.
Par 4s Gained (450-500): Six of the 11 par 4s at Riv play to yardage in this range. Performing well on these will be critical, and may even act as a separator on the leaderboard.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Nine Bridges, 2. Ridgewood CC, 3. Plantation Course at Kapalua
Trending: 1. Patrick Cantlay (Last three starts: 9, T-4, 2), 2. Hideki Matsuyama (1, T-30, T-8), 3. Justin Thomas (T-5, T-20, T-8)
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Jon Rahm (8.4 percent), 2. Patrick Cantlay (8 percent), 3. Justin Thomas (5.6 percent)
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This week on the show, Andy and I discuss Charley Hoffman’s Instagram post and how it completely backfired on him. We discuss Scheffler’s first PGA Tour win, and preview this week’s Genesis Invitational which includes our favorite picks of the week.
Bubba Watson – Top 20: Cash (+175)
Xander Schauffele – Top 20: Cash (+115)
Scottie Scheffler – Top 20: Cash (+135)
Viktor Hovland – Top 10: Miss
Russell Henley – Top 20: Miss
Corey Conners – Top 20: Miss
Scottie Scheffler – Outright: Cash (+3000)
Viktor Hovland – Outright: Miss
Justin Thomas – Outright: Miss
+1.25 units on position plays (+125), and +28 units on outrights at WM Phoenix Open.
+8.79 units on position plays in 2022. +20.5 units on outright plays in 2022.
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy plays his shot from the 18th tee during the first round of the Open Championship golf tournament. (Photo: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports)
Surprise, surprise – Rory McIlroy is back playing on the PGA Tour and he’s on my card. Get used to it folks, he’ll be on my card somewhere pretty much every week.
McIlroy missed the cut here last season but recorded top five finishes in 2020 and 2019. His last two starts were on the DP World Tour where he played nicely: T-12 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, and 3rd at the Dubai Desert Classic.
Adam Scott – Top 20 (+170)
Adam Scott poses with the winners trophy following his victory in the 2020 Genesis Invitational. (Photo: Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports)
Scott finished T-38 here last season, won in 2020, and finished inside the top 10 in 2019. So far in 2022, Scott has two top 10 finishes on the DP World Tour, and tied for 38th at the WM Phoenix Open last week. He’s always one of the best ball-strikers on the planet and feels comfortable around this track.
Will Zalatoris – Top 20 (+140)
Will Zalatoris plays his shot from the second tee during the final round of the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego. (Photo: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)
His last PGA Tour start ended with a playoff loss to Luke List at the Farmers Insurance Open. He finished 15th here last season and is one of the best ball-strikers on Earth. Not much else to say, just feels like a place Zalatoris will eventually win at in his career.
Only cause for concern: He is coming off COVID-19, so hopefully that hasn’t affected his body too much.
Other players to consider
Bubba Watson: He’s a three-time winner of this event. He was the runner up to HV3 in Saudi, and cashed a top 20 last week in Scottsdale. He has missed the cut here each of the last two seasons, but it’s hard not to like his overall course history and recent form.
Viktor Hovland: Man, he killed me last week. Missed the cut at the WMPO. But, he finished in the top five here last season, is a ball-striking machine and has still won 3 times in his last 6 starts.
Cameron Smith: He has two top six finishes in the last four years at the Genesis. Smith hasn’t made a start on Tour since the Sony Open where he missed the cut, but he won the week before at the TOC. Data Golf actually has Smith with the 4th best percent chance to win this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick: He finished 30th at the Genesis in 2020 and 5th in 2021. In 2022 on Tour, Fitzpatrick has finished T-6 at Pebble and T-10 in Scottsdale. Another guy that seems to play better at tougher golf courses, an absolute grinder.
*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, February 16th.
Analyzing the best fantasy golf picks for the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind.
Nine of the top 10 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are part of the 78-man field at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, this week for the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. We’ve looked at the best bets to win, and below is my Top 30 fantasy golf power rankings for the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind.
2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational: Fantasy Golf Top 30
Jul 19, 2020; Dublin, Ohio, USA; Sergio Garcia plays his shot from the fifth tee during the final round of The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. (Photo Credit: Aaron Doster – USA TODAY Sports)
Garcia is coming off back-to-back T-32 finishes in similar strengths of fields at the Travelers Championship and the Memorial Tournament. He’s second on Tour in the 2019-20 season in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
29. Paul Casey (+6600)
Casey is coming off consecutive missed cuts, but he has performed well in two trips to TPC Southwind with an average of 1.10 total strokes gained per round across eight rounds, according to Data Golf.
28. Michael Thompson (+12500)
Thompson cruised through a much weaker field at last week’s 3M Open en route to his first PGA Tour win since the 2013 Honda Classic. He’ll need to be a little sharper off-the-tee and around the greens against the stiffer competition this week.
27. Shane Lowry (+12500)
The reigning Champion Golfer of the Year has missed three of five cuts since play resumed, but his lone other PGA Tour victory was at the 2015 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He didn’t play this event last year.
26. Jordan Spieth (+4500)
Spieth is a much better fantasy selection than he is for bettors. The no-cut nature of WGC events allows him a full 72 holes of scoring opportunities and doesn’t penalize him nearly as badly for his blow-up holes. He can take his risks here.
Jul 18, 2020; Dublin, Ohio, USA; Billy Horschel plays his shot from the fairway on the ninth hole during the third round of The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. (Photo Credit: Aaron Doster – USA TODAY Sports)
25. Billy Horschel (+4500)
Horschel tied for ninth in this event last year, and he posted the same result at the WGC-Mexico Championship earlier this year. He’s averaging 0.79 SG: Tee-to-Green in 2020.
24. Corey Conners (+10000)
Conners held his own in the difficult conditions of the Memorial and finished T-22 for his fourth made cut in five events since play resumed. He tied for 27th last year in his first WGC event.
23. Marc Leishman (+7000)
Leishman finished alone in third at this event last year at minus-12 while averaging 1.63 SG: Approach per round. He tied for 40th at the Memorial for his best finish since the restart.
22. Dustin Johnson (+3300)
Johnson withdrew from the weak field at the 3M Open following an opening-round 78. It came on the heels of his 80-80 start and missed cut at the Memorial, but he is just a month removed from his Travelers Championship victory.
21. Abraham Ancer (+5000)
Ancer is in the top 25 of the Tour in SG: Approach; SG: Tee-to-Green; and Par 4 Performance. He tied for fourth at the WGC-HSBC Champions last fall and tied for 12th in the WGC-Mexico Championship this spring.
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20. Tommy Fleetwood (+3300)
Fleetwood returned from his prolonged layoff to miss the cut last week as one of the top betting favorites. He was oddly poor with the irons and lost 0.87 strokes per round on approach.
19. Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)
Matsuyama typically excels among these stronger fields, but he missed the cut at both the RBC Heritage and the Memorial. He has two career WGC victories and a T-6 at this year’s Mexico Championship.
18. Jason Day (+3300)
Day has shown some of his best form in several years with a T-7 at the Workday Charity Open and a T-4 at the Memorial. He’ll try to transition to a course with which he’s less familiar than Muirfield Village GC.
17. Tony Finau (+3300)
It was disappointing to see Finau struggle late in Round 4 against a weak field at the 3M Open. He was eighth at the Memorial in a field stronger than this week and is consistently getting top results, even without victory.
Jul 23, 2020; Blaine, Minnesota, USA; Brooks Koepka walks with his caddie Ricky Elliott on the 9th hole during the first round of the 3M Open golf tournament at TPC Twin Cities. (Photo Credit: David Berding – USA TODAY Sports)
16. Brooks Koepka (+3300)
What to do with Brooks? He has two missed cuts and a T-62 in his last three events and was outperformed by brother Chase last week. Still, the PGA Championship is next week. He may repeat at both events despite entering this week outside the FedExCup Playoff picture.
15. Sungjae Im (+9000)
Im took a rare break while skipping the 3M Open last week. He has struggled mightily since a T-10 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and the oddsmakers have clearly soured on him.
14. Gary Woodland (+4500)
Woodland has been inconsistent off-the-tee and shaky around the greens of late, but he’s still averaging 0.95 strokes per round on approach. He finished just 55th here a year ago but sets up for better results this time.
13. Patrick Reed (+3300)
Reed, who has eight PGA Tour victories, won his first WGC event at the Mexico Championship in late February. He has been inconsistent since the midseason suspension of play, but he’s coming off a T-10 at the Memorial as he preps for the major season.
12. Viktor Hovland (+2800)
Hovland’s T-48 at Muirfield Village was his worst result since the restart, but he took last week off for his first break. He’ll be playing his first WGC event and ranks T-8 in SG: Approach; and 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season.
11. Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3000)
Fitzpatrick tied for fourth last year at minus-11 while gaining 1.26 strokes per round from tee-to-green. His third-place finish at the Memorial was his best PGA Tour result since coming second at the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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10. Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Schauffele hasn’t won a full-field PGA Tour event since the 2017 Greenbrier Classic, but he won the 2018 WGC-HSBC Champions and went to a playoff against Rory McIlroy last year in that same event. He tied for 27th in this tournament in 2019.
9. Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
Cantlay hasn’t finished worse than his T-32 at the Memorial since returning to tournament play. He tied for 12th in his first visit to TPC Southwind last year.
8. Daniel Berger (+2800)
Berger missed the cut at the Memorial after winning the Charles Schwab Challenge and finishing T-3 at the RBC Heritage. He’s gaining 1.14 strokes from tee-to-green in 2020.
7. Collin Morikawa (+2800)
Morikawa won last year’s Barracuda Championship as the alternate event to the WGC. He got his second career win at the Workday Charity Open and will play his second WGC event following a T-42 in Mexico.
6. Webb Simpson (+2200)
Simpson was the runner-up in Memphis last year, and he has since picked up two victories at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage. He’s looking to move past a rare missed cut at the Memorial.
5. Justin Thomas (+1200)
Thomas, fourth in the Golfweek rankings, enters the week third by the betting odds to win in Memphis. He won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in 2018 and tied for 12th at TPC Southwind last year.
Jun 21, 2020; Hilton Head, South Carolina, USA; Tyrrell Hatton reacts on the tenth hole during the final round of the RBC Heritage golf tournament at Harbour Town Golf Links. (Photo Credit: Brian Spurlock – USA TODAY Sports)
4. Tyrrell Hatton (+2200)
Hatton tied for 43rd in this event a year ago while losing 1.37 strokes per round on the greens. Flip forward a year, and he leads the Tour in SG: Putting through 16 measured rounds in the 2019-20 season. Also, he has finished outside the top 20 in just one of his last 10 international events with two victories and two top 5’s.
3. Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
DeChambeau’s run of four consecutive finishes of T-8 or better, including his victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, was snapped with a missed cut at the Memorial. He has lost 0.08 strokes per round over 10 trips around TPC Southwind, but his results prior to the 2020 midseason break aren’t worth much.
2. Rory McIlroy (+1100)
Since 2014, McIlroy has won three WGC events (including match play), with 11 other top-10s and seven top-5’s, including a fifth-place finish in Mexico in February. He’s second by the betting odds.
1. Jon Rahm (+1000)
Rahm’s the betting favorite following his dominant win over an even stronger field at the Memorial. He was seventh here last year and T-3 in Mexico.
Get some action on the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com.
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Analyzing the golf betting odds to win the 2020 Barracuda Championship with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.
The 2020 Barracuda Championship serves as the alternate event to this week’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and returns to Montreaux Golf & Country Club in Truckee, Calif. Below, we look at the BetMGM outright betting odds, and make our PGA Tour picks and best bets for the Barracuda Championship.
Note: This tournament uses Modified Stableford scoring. Collin Morikawa and Andrew Putnam won in 2019 and 2018, respectively, with 47 points.
Jun 20, 2020; Hilton Head, S.C.; Alex Noren plays his shot from the 18th tee during the third round of the RBC Heritage golf tournament at Harbour Town Golf Links. (Photo Credit: Brian Spurlock – USA TODAY Sports)
Noren, a 10-time winner on the European Tour, fell just shy of his first PGA Tour victory at last week’s 3M Open. He went 5-under par in his final round but finished T-3 at minus-16 and three shots back of champion Michael Thompson.
He gained 1.71 strokes putting per round over the tournament, according to Data Golf, but was also steady on approach, off-the-tee and from tee-to-green. He was able to move to 98th in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings with the performance and will try again for his first victory against an even weaker field.
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Matthias Schwab (+2800)
Schwab tied for 32nd last week at minus-10 despite losing a dreadful 1.70 strokes putting per round on the putting surfaces. He led the field with 2.76 SG: Tee-to-Green per round and was second with 2.05 SG: Approach. Bank on the more repeatable swings and get him at a number much higher than he should have against this competition.
Jul 16, 2020; Dublin, Ohio; Sebastian Munoz plays his shot from the fairway on the ninth hole during the first round of The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. (Photo Credit: Aaron Doster – USA TODAY Sports)
Sebastian Munoz (+6600)
Munoz tied for 48th in a strong field amid difficult conditions at the Memorial Tournament before taking last week off. He had previously missed three straight cuts following a T-28 showing at the RBC Heritage. His victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship earlier in the 2019-20 season was in a field more comparable to what he’ll face this week.
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Bronson Burgoon (+8000)
Burgoon finished alone in fifth last year at minus-13 despite losing 0.44 strokes per round on the greens. He averaged 2.50 SG: Tee-to-Green over the tournament. He missed three consecutive cuts before finishing T-61 at the Workday Charity Open and T-41 last week and finally seems to be trending in the right direction.
2020 Barracuda Championship Betting Picks – Long shots
Mar 1, 2020; Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.; Robby Shelton lines up his putt on the eighth green during the final round of the 2020 Honda Classic golf tournament at PGA National (Champion). (Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports)
Robby Shelton (+10000)
Shelton’s price is a mystery after he fired a Sunday round of 7-under to finish T-3 at minus-16 in a stronger field last week. He averaged 2.66 SG: Tee-to-Green per round, 1.42 SG: Approach and 1.13 SG: Off-the-Tee. He’s one of the top values on the board in an open competition.
Sahith Theegala (+15000)
We’re going back to Theegala yet again to try to capitalize on his high odds and college pedigree in a weaker field. He has begun his professional career with three straight missed cuts but will look to follow suit of Morikawa (2019 Barracuda Championship) and Viktor Hovland (2020 Puerto Rico Open) as top college golfers to get their first wins in these alternate events.
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Analyzing the golf betting odds to win the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, with PGA Tour betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.
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The 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational serves as the final tune-up for the PGA Championship, and the top six golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings head to TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. Below, we look at the BetMGM outright betting odds and make our PGA Tour picks and best bets to win the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
The 78-man field includes 2019 champion Brooks Koepka, plus the reigning winners of the Memorial Tournament (Jon Rahm) and the 3M Open (Michael Thompson).
2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Betting Picks – Tier 1
Jul 5, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Tyrrell Hatton putts on the third green during the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic golf tournament at Detroit Golf Club. (Photo Credit: Brian Spurlock – USA TODAY Sports)
Hatton has been on a tear since winning the European Tour’s Turkish Airlines Open near the end of 2019. He picked up his first PGA Tour win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and has come out of the break with a T-3 at the RBC Heritage and a T-4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He tied for sixth at the WGC-Mexico Championship earlier this season, as well.
The 12th-ranked golfer in the world ranks second on Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Approach; fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green; fifth in Par 4 Performance; and first in SG: Putting.
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Collin Morikawa (+2800)
Morikawa followed up his victory at the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village Golf Club with a T-48 result in the more challenging Memorial Tournament the following week. He won last year’s Barracuda Championship as the alternate field event to the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational but has now been invited to the bigger stage with two PGA Tour wins under his belt.
He’s eighth in the field by the Golfweek rankings and ninth by the odds to win at BetMGM.
2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Betting Picks – Tier 2
Jun 14, 2020; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Sungjae Im plays his shot from the third tee during the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge golf tournament at Colonial Country Club. (Photo Credit: Raymond Carlin III – USA TODAY Sports)
Abraham Ancer (+5000)
Ancer was in strong form out of the break prior to a T-58 finish at the Memorial. He’s in the top 25 on Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green; and Par 4 Performance.
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Sungjae Im (+9000)
Im, the winner of The Honda Classic, has been in poor form since a T-10 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and the Memorial while finishing outside the top 50 in his three other events.
He’s coming off a rare one-week break and has much higher odds than we’ve seen for much of the last two years.
2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Betting Picks – Long shots
Jul 26, 2020; Blaine, Minnesota, USA; Max Homa hits a tee shot on the 11th hole during the final round of the 3M Open golf tournament at TPC Twin Cities. (Photo Credit: David Berding – USA TODAY Sports)
Max Homa (+12500)
Homa ranked sixth and seventh, respectively, in last week’s field in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach, according to Data Golf. He lost a woeful 2.31 strokes per round putting but was still able to finish T-3. He’ll face much stiffer competition this week, but his odds remain ripe for the picking.
Mackenzie Hughes (+15000)
Hughes has a T-3 at the Travelers Championship and a T-6 at the Memorial as his best results in five events since returning to play. He has been much better in SG: Putting and SG: Around-the-Green than in approach and from tee-to-green, but his flat stick is absolutely worth backing at this high of a number.
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Analyzing prop bets for the 2020 3M Open, with PGA Tour odds, picks and best bets for the top matchup, placing and FRL options.
TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn., hosts the 2020 3M Open with the opening round Thursday. Matthew Wolff tries to defend his 2019 victory in the inaugural event against the weakest field we’ve seen since the PGA Tour returned to play. As a result, there’s plenty of betting value beyond the top names of Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau and Tommy Fleetwood. Below, we look at the best prop bets for the 3M Open, including matchups, placings and first-round leader picks.
Johnson and Koepka are the first and fourth betting favorites at +1000 and +1600, respectively. They’re the class of a weaker field, but there’s no value in betting them outright in what’s likely their final preparations for the PGA Championship.
Johnson missed the cut last week at plus-16 after opening 80-80 in the tough conditions at Muirfield Village Golf Club. He’ll bounce back on a much easier course following his weekend off.
Tony Finau (-125) vs. Tommy Fleetwood
Finau collapsed last week at the Memorial Tournament as Jon Rahm went on to win by three strokes over Ryan Palmer and Finau finished eighth. Finau will recover in easier scoring conditions and against a weaker field as Fleetwood makes his first appearance since The Players Championship was canceled.
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2020 3M Open: Placing bets
Top 5: Ryan Armour (+1600)
Armour finished T-6 at the Travelers Championship and T-4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic before a missed cut at the Workday Charity Open. He finished at minus-15 and minus-16 in his two top results and should have little trouble lighting up TPC Twin Cities.
Top 10: Bernd Wiesberger (+850)
The golf betting community missed on Wiesberger last week, as he missed the cut at plus-7. Typically playing only majors and World Golf Championship events while dominating the European Tour, the 3M Open will feature one of the easiest courses and weakest fields of any PGA Tour event he has played.
Top British/Irish: Tommy Fleetwood (+120)
Fleetwood doesn’t hold much value at +1500 to win the first tournament he has played in four months. He is +100 to be the top English player, but his odds rise with only Russell Knox (+900) and Seamus Power (+1600) being added as competition.
Top player from the rest of the world: Emiliano Grillo (+1400)
Grillo is priced sixth in this group led by South African Erik Van Rooyen at +600. Grillo missed the cut last week while losing 2.46 strokes per round putting, but he gained 0.88 strokes off-the-tee. The latter is the much more important statistic at TPC Twin Cities, and he’ll be able to contend without needing to worry as much about the flat stick.
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2020 3M Open: First-round leader bet
Derek Ernst (+17500)
Ernst, a former PGA Tour winner, returns to a PGA Tour event for the first time since a T-52 finish at the Puerto Rico Open in February. He has dominated the Korn Ferry Tour of late with three straight finishes of T-12 or better and looks to carry his top form to the next level.
Lucas Glover (+4500)
Glover finished T-7 last year at minus-16 after firing a Sunday round of 62. His T-38 finish last week was his worst result in five events since returning to play, as he has been one of the most consistent in the strong fields. He’s ready to break through against softer competition.
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Analyzing the best fantasy golf picks for the 2020 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.
The 2020 3M Open will see Matthew Wolff try to defend his 2019 victory at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn., against Tommy Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and the rest of a rather lackluster field. Fleetwood makes his first appearance since the midseason pause and is the top-ranked player in attendance at No. 17 in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings. Here are my top-30 fantasy golf rankings for the 2020 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities
Oct 26, 2017; Jackson, MS, USA; Derek Ernst chips the ball from a 18th hole bunker during the first round of the Sanderson Farms Championship golf tournament at Country Club of Jackson. (Photo Credit: Spruce Derden – USA TODAY Sports)
Ventura tied for 21st at the Rocket Mortgage Classic amid a strong stretch of play on the Korn Ferry Tour which included a T-8 finish at the TPC San Antonio Challenge at the Canyons. He should be able to earn a quality finish in a soft field this week.
29. Charley Hoffman (+7000)
Hoffman picked up a T-7 at the Workday Charity Open but didn’t play in the Memorial Tournament. He missed the cut in this event last year but lost a woeful 1.71 strokes per round putting, according to Data Golf.
28. Chase Seiffert (+10000)
Seiffert was off last week following his breakout fourth-place finish at the Workday Charity Open. He relied heavily on his putter in that performance but also managed to gain 0.92 strokes per round on approach.
27. Derek Ernst (+30000)
Like Ventura, Ernst is on a heater on the KFT and looks to take the next step in a soft field on the PGA Tour. He tied for fifth at the TPC San Antonio Championship at the Oaks following a T-12 at the Canyons. He won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2013 but made the cut in just three PGA Tour events since the beginning of 2019.
26. Emiliano Grillo (+10000)
Grillo’s struggles with the flat stick won’t be as much of a concern at TPC Twin Cities with a much stronger emphasis on the driver and approach game. He tied for third on a similar course for the Puerto Rico Open in February.
Feb 27, 2020; Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., USA; Roger Sloan lets go of his grip in the 16th tee box during the first round of the 2020 Honda Classic golf tournament at PGA National (Champion). (Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay – USA TODAY Sports)
25. Roger Sloan (+20000)
Sloan finished T-15 here last year while gaining 1.22 strokes per round tee-to-green. He tied for 27th at the Workday Charity Open for his best result since play resumed.
24. Wyndham Clark (+9000)
Clark tied for fifth last year while leading the field in Driving Distance at 327.9 yards and gaining 1.33 strokes tee-to-green. His missed cut at the Memorial last week doesn’t carry much weight with easier conditions and a weakened field on hand this week.
23. Charles Howell III (+9000)
Howell tied for 23rd in 2019 in a neutral putting performance. He has two missed cuts since play resumed with a T-49 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a T-48 last week.
22. Matthias Schwab (+8000)
Schwab missed the cut last week in his first PGA Tour event since the WGC-Mexico Championship. He previously tied for 21st at the European Tour’s Qatar Masters and can certainly compete in fields like these.
21. Ryan Armour (+8000)
Armour is 47th on Tour this season in Birdie or Better Percentage. He finished T-6 at the Travelers Championship and T-4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic before a missed cut at the Workday.
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20. Brian Harman (+5000)
Harman is tied for the 14th-best odds to win this event despite entering off of three straight missed cuts. He tied for seventh last year with just 0.85 SG: Putting per round.
19. Carlos Ortiz (+6600)
Ortiz finished T-5 in 2019 with 2.32 SG: Tee-to-Green and 1.29 SG: Approach per round. He has made the cut in three of five events since play returned.
18. Rafa Cabrera Bello (+7000)
Cabrera Bello has just two made cuts in five events since the midseason suspension was lifted. He has slipped all the way to 139th in the Golfweek rankings but will benefit from the weaker competition.
17. Dylan Frittelli (+6600)
Frittelli’s best result since play returned was a T-8 at the RBC Heritage. He missed his next two cuts but tied for 22nd last week. He’s tied for 34th on Tour this season in Par 5 Performance and will be able to take advantage of the easier holes here.
16. Harris English (+3300)
English is the second-best player in attendance by the Golfweek rankings at No. 19 in the world. He finished T-17 at the RBC Heritage and T-13 last week.
Jul 4, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Sepp Straka tees off on the 2nd during the third round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic golf tournament at Detroit Golf Club. (Photo Credit: Brian Spurlock – USA TODAY Sports)
15. Sepp Straka (+6600)
Straka finished 61st at plus-11 last week, but he had done no worse than 10-under in his previous three events in which he made the cut. He can go low over four rounds and should easily make the cut in this field.
14. Max Homa (+6600)
Homa missed the weekend in each of his last three events, but he gained 1.28 strokes around the greens and 1.63 strokes tee-to-green at the 2019 3M Open before withdrawing during the third round.
13. Sam Burns (+4500)
Burns’ T-7 here last year was one of his best results of 2019 and he returns with three straight made cuts in tougher fields.
12. Bubba Watson (+3300)
Watson has more than enough distance for this course and should take advantage of the weaker field in a tune-up for the 2020 PGA Championship.
11. Luke List (+4000)
List averaged 1.21 SG: Off-the-Tee and 1.75 SG: Tee-to-Green last week. Normally held back by his putter, he’ll benefit from the easier putting surfaces of TPC Twin Cities.
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10. Brooks Koepka (+1400)
Koepka is running out of time to correct the issues with his driver and short game ahead of the PGA Championship. The fact he’s still playing in a tournament like this just two weeks out is at least a sign he’s trying to fix the problems.
9. Will Gordon (+7000)
Gordon followed up his surprising T-3 result at the Travelers with a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic but returns after two weeks off. His long game is well suited for this course.
8. Doc Redman (+5000)
Redman missed the cut last year with a horrendous performance from tee-to-green, but he returns while averaging 0.76 SG: T2G in 2020. He came out of the break with four straight weekend appearances before a missed cut last week.
7. Erik Van Rooyen (+3300)
Rooyen shares the eighth-best odds to win the tournament. He’s tied for 20th on Tour this season with 0.539 SG: Approach. He’ll face one of the weaker PGA Tour fields he has played against.
Mar 12, 2020; Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., USA; Tommy Fleetwood watches his tees shot on the 11th hole during the first round of the 2020 edition of The Players Championship golf tournament at TPC Sawgrass – Stadium Course. (Photo Credit: Adam Hagy – USA TODAY Sports)
6. Tommy Fleetwood (+1400)
Fleetwood is the top-ranked golfer in attendance by the Golfweek rankings but will play for the first time since The Players Championship was canceled after the opening round. He’s 10th on Tour while averaging 0.610 SG: Off-the-Tee through 10 measured rounds.
5. Matthew Wolff (+2500)
The defending champ has the sixth-best odds to win. He was the runner-up at the RMC in a similar-caliber field.
4. Paul Casey (+2200)
Casey has had a disappointing return to golf with a T-32 at the Travelers and a missed cut last week. He still enters the week 25th in the Golfweek rankings as the fourth-best golfer in the field.
3. Dustin Johnson (+900)
Johnson, the winner of the Travelers Championship, missed the cut at plus-16 last week while losing 3.12 SG: Putting per round. He enters as the betting favorite following his weekend of rest.
2. Lucas Glover (+3300)
Glover has been one of the best and most consistent golfers since play resumed. His T-38 finish last week was his worst result in five events. He’s 26th in SG: Approach and 36th in Birdie or Better Percentage on Tour this season.
1. Tony Finau (+1200)
Finau suffered a Sunday collapse with a final round of 78 last week to finish in eighth place. The weaker field and softer conditions will allow for a quality bounce-back performance.
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