Touchdown Wire’s 2022 NFL season predictions

Doug Farrar, Laurie Fitzpatrick, and Luke Easterling fill out Touchdown Wire’s predictions for the 2022 NFL season.

Everybody does predictions before the start of every season in every sport, and of course, we who blather on about the NFL are no exception. Last year, Doug Farrar, Laurie Fitzpatrick, and Mark Schofield filled out the Touchdown Wire predictions sheet, and while the predictions made sense, we all whiffed on a few things — most notably, the Super Bowl teams.

Now, with Mark off to pastures anew (see you ’round, old friend), we’ve enlisted Luke Easterling, the shot-caller for both Bucs Wire and Draft Wire, and an estimable football mind in his own right. Luke and Doug also host the weekly “4-Down Territory” video, which you should definitely check out.

With all that said, let’s get to the predictions. Here’s how we see the 2022 NFL season shaking out — from division winners to Super Bowl champion to a plethora of individual awards.

The biggest question for every NFL team in the 2022 season

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar asks — and tries to answer — the most pressing questions for every NFL team as the 2022 season begins.

No matter how great any team is, every team has its share of questions to answer when a new season begins. The 1968 Baltimore Colts looked unbeatable until they met the New York Jets in Super Bowl III, and Jets running back Matt Snell exploited the weak right side of Baltimore’s defensive front over and over on the way to one of the greatest upsets in sports history. The 2007 New England Patriots were unbeatable until they lost to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII because their interior offensive line couldn’t handle the Giants’ NASCAR pressure packages.

No matter how great your team is, one little thing can turn everything upside down.

Conversely, teams that may look hopeless are actually building credibly to the future, and that will show up on the field more than anybody might think. And then there are the NFL’s stragglers — the teams for whom there is little present hope, and the primary question is, “How do we transcend our multiple weaknesses to be at least competitive?”

Each of the NFL’s 32 teams have questions to answer coming into the 2022 season, which of course is right around the corner. So here, for your consideration, are the most pressing questions every NFL team will — and must — answer in the new season.

4-Down Territory: Previewing Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season

In this week’s episode of “4-Down Territory,” Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling get you ready for Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season.

Every week in “4-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire go over the things you need to know about, and the things you need to watch, in the NFL right now. Of course, with Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season right around the corner, our guys are laser-focused on that.

This week, Doug and Luke discuss:

  1. Which elements are most important in the 2022 season opener Thursday night between the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills?
  2. Which Week 1 revenge game is the most compelling?
  3. Every year, there’s a worst-to-first team — last year, it was the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals. Which teams are best set up to rise to the top in 2022?
  4. Conversely, which 2021 playoff teams are the guys most worried about when it’s time to run it back?

You can watch this week’s episode of “4 Down Territory” right here.

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Secret Superstars for Week 3 of the 2022 NFL preseason: The defense

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar lets you in on the most prominent under-the-radar defensive performances in the final week of the 2022 NFL preseason.

With final cuts just around the corner (all teams must reduce their rosters to 53 by Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. EST), and the 2022 regular season starting Thursday, September 8, anybody who doesn’t have a lock on a starting job tends to see the final week of the preseason as a sort of Hunger Games. At this point, you’re not just trying to impress your coaches and your teammates — you’re just trying to hang onto the roster spot you have, or give enough of an effort to make other teams aware. Perhaps one of those teams will pick you up if you do get cut.

Our Secret Superstars list for that final week of the preseason has a lot of guys who may have either evaded the Turk (the guy who comes to your room, knocks on your door, and quietly asks you to bring your playbook to the head coach’s office to let you know you’re off the team), or have done enough to eliminate any doubt as to their veracity as starters in the league.

The clock is ticking, oxygen is getting thin, and it’s all about to be for real. Here are the under-the-radar players who did the most to advance their cases for themselves in Week 3 of the 2022 preseason. Since there were so many of them this week, we’re splitting the list into two parts. The Secret Superstars All-Offense team is right here.

Secret Superstars for Week 3 of the 2022 NFL preseason: The offense

Secret Superstars for Week 3 of the 2022 NFL preseason: The offense

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar lets you in on the most prominent under-the-radar offensive performances in the final week of the 2022 NFL preseason.

With final cuts just around the corner (all teams must reduce their rosters to 53 by Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. EST), and the 2022 regular season starting Thursday, September 8, anybody who doesn’t have a lock on a starting job tends to see the final week of the preseason as a sort of Hunger Games. At this point, you’re not just trying to impress your coaches and your teammates — you’re just trying to hang onto the roster spot you have, or give enough of an effort to make other teams aware. Perhaps one of those teams will pick you up if you do get cut.

Our Secret Superstars list for that final week of the preseason has a lot of guys who may have either evaded the Turk (the guy who comes to your room, knocks on your door, and quietly asks you to bring your playbook to the head coach’s office to let you know you’re off the team), or have done enough to eliminate any doubt as to their veracity as starters in the league.

The clock is ticking, oxygen is getting thin, and it’s all about to be for real. Here are the under-the-radar players who did the most to advance their cases for themselves in Week 3 of the 2022 preseason. Since there were so many of them this week, we’re splitting the list into two parts. Here are the offensive Superstars, and we’ll have the defensive Superstars up presently.

Texans QB Davis Mills turned last year’s INT into this year’s positive play

On one play from Thursday night against the San Francisco 49ers, quarterback Davis Mills showed growth over where he began his NFL career.

Last season, rookie quarterback Davis Mills threw one of the roughest interceptions from any passer during the entire 2021 season.

It came during a Week 4 clash against the Buffalo Bills, in just his second NFL start. During a game where Mills and the Houston Texans came out on the wrong end of a 40-0 thrashing, Mills threw four interceptions on the road in the loss. He completed just 11 of 21 passes for 87 yards, posting an NFL passer rating of just 23.4, and a mesmerizing QBR of 0.6.

The play in question came early in the game, with the score knotted at zero. Houston faced a 3rd and 10 in Buffalo territory, at the 37-yard line. Meaning, there is a chance with a good play, the Texans will be in the red zone. Or, in perhaps a worst-case scenario, the field goal team is coming onto the field for the next play.

Instead, it would be their defense.

Houston dialed up a rather basic passing concept, with a pair of deeper curl routes on each side of the field, coupled with a sit route over the football. In some systems, this might be termed the Hank concept:

As you can see, Mills has to navigate a pressure look pre-snap. Buffalo does indeed bring pressure, but they also drop two defenders off the line of scrimmage in coverage: Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and defensive end Mario Addison:

Now watch the play unfold, paying particular attention to Mills’ eyes:

His eyes never move off the sit route in the middle of the field. Edmunds reads him perfectly for the interception, but the only reason the linebacker is the one who snares the turnover is because Addison just misses on the catch. The defensive end, dropping into coverage as well, also jumps the route, thanks to how he reads the rookie’s eyes.

Fast-forward a few months. By the end of the season, there was a credible case to be made that it was Mills who stood out the most out of the rookie quarterback class. Whether you buy that argument or not, he showed enough to the Houston front office that the Texans passed on quarterbacks during the last draft cycle, giving Mills a legitimate chance to not only start this season, but be their long-term answer at the position.

That brings us to Thursday night.

Early in Houston’s final preseason game against the San Francisco 49ers, the offense faced another third-and-10 situation.

The Texans dialed up virtually the same exact concept. Now watch Mills’ eyes:

Mills, as he did in last season’s example, brings his eyes first to the sit route in the middle of the field. He even starts to throw that pattern. But then, he resets his eyes — and his feet — to the curl route on the outside. Why? He sees the robber safety start to jump that route. So he comes off the first read and flashes to his second, hitting Chris Conley on the curl route to move the chains.

Now, there are some differences between the two plays. Against Buffalo, Mills was trying to navigate a pre-snap pressure look with mugged defenders, and a blitz from the defense. Against San Francisco last night, he was dealing with a soft zone look, with just four rushers.

Still, Mills also dealt with pressure in last night’s example, as he takes a hit low that drew a flag. But more importantly, this is a sign that he is growing more comfortable in the pocket, even on concepts the Texans installed on the first day of minicamp. For him to reset his eyes, and his feet, to get to the curl route on the second example is a sign of mental growth from him.

Will this be a sign of further progress from Mills? Will he show enough to the Texans this season that enables them to pass on a quarterback next spring? That remains to be seen.

But on this snapshot, there is growth from him. Which is what the Texans, and their fans, are hoping for this season.

Dameon Pierce scores on the exact play Seahawks should have called in Super Bowl XLIX

Houston Texans rookie running back Dameon Pierce scored on the exact play the Seahawks should have called to win Super Bowl XLIX.

It was the worst, and one of the most consequential, play calls in NFL history. And we all remember it.

With 26 seconds left in Super Bowl XLIX between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots, Seattle had the ball at the New England one-yard line, down 28-24. They had a decent offensive line, and in Marshawn Lynch, the greatest power runner of the time. Lynch had gained four yards on the previous play, so of course, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell called a… skinny slant to receiver Ricardo Lockette.

We all know how THAT turned out.

If you look to the left side of the Seahawks’ offensive line, you’ll one of the 15 or so things that were really dumb about this play. Lynch would have had a major gap to run through even if he hadn’t flared out post-snap, and most likely, that would have wrapped things up for the Seahawks — a franchise that has ever been the same since.

If you’ve ever wondered what the correct play in that situation would have looked like, we turn your attention to Thursday night’s preseason game between the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers. Rookie running back Dameon Pierce, who reminds some of Lynch with his powerful playing demeanor, took the ball at the one-yard line, bulled in behind his line to the left, and there was your touchdown.

Pierce was an absolute menace on that first Texans drive, gaining 37 yards and scoring that touchdown on just six carries. The fourth-round rookie from Florida, who’s been on our radar since before the draft, has the look of the best back in this draft class.

As for the Seahawks? Well, they took Michigan State back Kenneth Walker III in the second round, and though Walker does show some nice potential, passing on Pierce might be another decision they — and every other NFL team not named the Houston Texans — regret over time.

Secret Superstars for Week 2 of the 2022 NFL preseason

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar names the most impactful under-the-radar performers in Week 2 of the 2022 NFL preseason.

There are those who will tell you that preseason games don’t matter — they are useless to analyze, as you have starters going against starters in relatively vanilla schemes, or backups going against backups; most of whom won’t be playing in the NFL when the regular season starts.

When you peel back to the truth past that hyperbole, there’s a lot more to it than that. The story in the middle of that is a huge ball of players who are either trying to establish themselves as potential starters, or are trying to save their careers in short spaces of time. What you’re looking for is how people fit into teams and schemes, or not.

And that’s why preseason performances actually do matter — they set the tone for the regular season more often than you may think.

Here are our Secret Superstars for Week 2 of the full 2022 preseason — the guys who stood out above the rest. These are not recent first-round picks, or lead-pipe locks to make a roster; these are the guys fighting for every bit of starting opportunities.

Texans WR Nico Collins makes the catch of the preseason vs. Rams

Texans offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton recently predicted big things for Davis Mills and Nico Collins. That came true against the Rams.

“I expect that between Davis [Mills] and Nico [Collins] and the time that they’ll put in out here on the practice field, that there should be a high level of trust between the two. And we should be able to feature Nico in situations where it’s man coverage, where he can use his body, his size, his God-given ability to make plays.”

That’s what Houston Texans offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton said lats Tuesday about the connection between quarterback Davis Mills and receiver Nico Collins. The Texans selected Mills with the 67th overall pick in the third round of the 2021 draft, and Mills surprised a lot of people by looking like a potential franchise quarterback for a franchise very much in need of one. Collins also came to Houston in the third round of the 2021 draft, with the 89th overall pick.

At the end of the first half of Friday night’s game between the Texans and the Los Angeles Rams, Mills and Collins made Hamilton look positively psychic. Mills put this ball up for Collins, and with one second left in the second quarter, Collins made an unreal 18-yard touchdown catch over Rams rookie cornerback Derion Kendrick.

At 6-foot-4 and 218 pounds, Collins has the size and strength to embarrass just about any defender, and this play may bode well for Houston’s 2022 passing game — as their offensive coordinator predicted.

Secret Superstars for Week 1 of the 2022 NFL preseason

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar has scoured preseason tape, and here are his Secret Superstars for Week 1 of this NFL preseason.

Those party-poopers who tell you that “It’s only the preseason” have never tried to make an NFL team, or grab a starting role, by the skin of their teeth. For more players than not, the three-game stretch before the regular season begins is their best way to prove that they belong on an NFL roster once things get “real.”

Now that Week 1 of the 2022 preseason is in the books, here are the players we think have done the most to create — or enhance — those favorable impressions when they matter the most.

The players on this list are not the obvious names — there are no first-rounders, or players who came into the new season with advanced amounts of hype based on their collegiate or previous NFL exploits. These guys are either trying to stake their claims, or save their careers.

So, let’s take a look at the Secret Superstars of Week 1 of the 2022 NFL preseason.

(All metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus unless otherwise indicated).