Analytics show where 49ers should have kicked off in Super Bowl overtime

The analytics on kicking or receiving the overtime kick in the playoffs (Kyle Shanahan wasn’t wrong to receive… but he also wasn’t right?):

The 49ers’ decision to receive the opening kickoff of overtime in the Super Bowl became a major discussion point after San Francisco’s crushing defeat at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan said after the game the team’s goal with receiving was to control the third possession. In the event the teams were tied after one possession each, the 49ers would then be able to win the game with a field goal.

Of course, it never got to that point because San Francisco kicked a field goal and the Chiefs scored a touchdown to win the game. Perhaps things would’ve gone different had the 49ers done what they usually do when they win the coin toss and took the ball second.

However, Walker Harrison, a quantitative analyst for the New York Yankees, crunched the data on the playoff overtime rules and it turns out there’s no surefire right choice.

Harrison’s numbers show no real advantage either way:

He posted another version with a legend that explains the methodology:

Alas, there are a ton of elements that factor into a coach’s decision. Surely the 49ers’ defense being nearly out of gas by the end of regulation also factored into Shanahan’s decision.

In a results-based business though the decision that led to a loss was the wrong one regardless of what the numbers say. That’s how Shanahan will be judged.

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