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Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Why The Bulldogs Can Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Bulldogs hope to end the regular season with a win over the rival Aztecs. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
Contact/Follow @MattK_FS and @MWCwire
The Old Oil Can is on the line once more.
WEEK 13: Fresno State Bulldogs (8-3, 4-3 Mountain West) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (3-8, 1-6 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, November 25 — 7:30 PM PT/8:30 PM MT
WHERE: Snapdragon Stadium; San Diego, CA
WEATHER: Mostly clear, low of 47 degrees
TV: FS1
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes FS1, by following this link.
RADIO: The Fresno State broadcast can be found in and around the Central Valley on the affiliates of the Bulldog Sports network, including flagship 1340 AM (KCBL) in Fresno. The San Diego State broadcast can be found on San Diego Sports 760.
SERIES RECORD: San Diego State leads the all-time series, 30-27-4. In the last meeting on October 29, 2022, the Bulldogs defeated the Aztecs, 32-28, in Fresno.
LAST GAME: Fresno State lost to New Mexico at home, 25-17, while San Diego State lost on the road to San Jose State, 24-13.
WEBSITES: GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website | GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Fresno State | San Diego State
ODDS: Fresno State -5
SP+ PROJECTION: Fresno State by 13.9
FEI PROJECTION: Fresno State by 9.8
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Fresno State 77.78% win probability (29.92-19.79)
After suffering one of its most disappointing losses in recent memory, the Fresno State Bulldogs will look to bounce back in their last road trip of the regular season, a date in southern California against the San Diego State Aztecs.
Things have not gone according to plan for Brady Hoke’s squad in 2023, though they won’t want to come out flat in his last game on the sidelines before his announced retirement. With the Old Oil Can on the line and another ten-win season still in sight, the Bulldogs should be well-motivated themselves. Here’s how they can come out on top against the Aztecs.
Three Keys to a Fresno State State Victory
1. Get back to finishing offensive drives.
It may be that quarterback Mikey Keene and his ongoing battle with injuries have had a more significant impact on the Bulldogs than anyone realizes. By both points per drive and available yards percentage earned per drive, the losses to San Jose State and New Mexico were the two worst offensive performances of the season. If he’s on track to be fully recovered from what was reported to be a minor concussion, as was suggested this week by head coach Jeff Tedford, it could help them get back on track in a number of ways.
Chief among those ways: Getting back into the red zone more consistently. Fresno State has only had seven drives inside the opponent’s 20-yard line in three November games, the fewest in the Mountain West, and they’ve scored only four touchdowns in those opportunities. By contrast, the Aztecs defense has allowed eight touchdowns in 13 red zone situations this month, a figure that’s comparable to when they were struggling with the likes of UCLA, Oregon State, Boise State, and Air Force back in September.
2. Sort out the run defense.
After Kairee Robinson and Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran roughshod against the Bulldogs in back-to-back weeks, ending the regular season against San Diego State’s relatively weak ground game should give Kevin Coyle’s unit something of a reprieve. Though Jaylen Armstead ran for 134 yards against San Jose State last Saturday, that was the Aztecs’ first 100-yard performance of the season and 68.7% of that yardage came on just four of 21 carries; he was also stopped for two or fewer yards seven times.
If they can keep Armstead from making a big impact, they’ll also need to be wary of quarterback Jalen Mayden, who scored twice in last year’s game against the Bulldogs and is the team’s leading rusher with 432 yards (though this does not adjust for sack yardage). San Diego State is still a team dedicated to running the ball first, evidenced by their XX% rush rate over expected.
3. Protect the quarterback.
Pass protection is likely to be another element of the game where the Bulldogs can make life easier if they can get right. After allowing five sacks to San Jose State and two to New Mexico, it may help to build confidence that the Aztecs have been shut out on that front in four different games this fall, including their two most recent losses against Colorado State and the Spartans.
While sophomore linebacker Zyrus Fiaseu has emerged as a disrupter with a team-high 5.5 sacks and a conference-best four forced fumbles, the defensive front has utterly failed to replace the likes of Jonah Tavai and Keshawn Banks as defensive tackle Tupu Alualu is the only other San Diego State defender with more than 1.5 sacks.
Prediction
Have injuries caught up with the Bulldogs? It’s hard to say exactly how big a role ailments to the likes of Mikey Keene, Jacob Spomer, and others have played down the stretch, but they’ve been most vulnerable when the offense isn’t 100%: All three losses in 2023 have come when they’ve scored fewer than 20 points.
The good news is that, at this point, the Aztecs’ offensive inefficiencies seem to be as entrenched as ever. It probably won’t be the prettiest result ever, but expect Fresno State to end the regular season on a high note and bring the Old Oil Can back to the Central Valley.
Fresno State 27, San Diego State 16
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