Category: picks and betting tips

UFC on ESPN 48: Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 48 odds and lines between Damir Ismagulov vs. Grant Dawson with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a lightweight bout on the main card, Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 48 — also known as UFC Vegas 76 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs. Dawson odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Ismagulov (24-2-0) | Dawson (19-1-1)

Ismagulov is looking to bounce back after suffering a unanimous-decision setback against Arman Tsarukyan last time out in mid-December. Since arriving at the UFC level in Dec. 2018, he has gone the distance in all 6 of his fights. His most recent victory against Guram Kutateladze last June was his only career split decision, and it was a win.

Dawson has managed an impressive 7-0-1 record since making his UFC debut against Julian Erosa in a unanimous-decision win back in March 2019. The only blemish is a draw against Ricky Glenn in October 2021. His past 2 wins have been via submission, including a 3rd-round tap against a previously-undefeated Mark O. Madsen in November.

Dawson, nicknamed “KGD”, has just 3.12 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.78 for Ismagulov. However, Dawson is much more accurate striker, landing 63.71% to just 51.45% for the Kazakh fighter.

Dawson is better in the takedown game, too, holding a 3.80-to-1.17 takedown average advantage, while recording a 34.62% takedown accuracy percentage. He also has a 1.55 submission average to his credit.

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UFC on ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs. Dawson odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ismagulov -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Dawson -106 (bet $106 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -240 | Under +184)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -182 | No +142)

UFC on ESPN 48: Ismagulov vs. Dawson picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The books feel this fight will be a toss-up, but I think the clear advantage goes to DAWSON (-106). The switch-stance fighter can do it in a number of ways and his versatility will serve him well in this fight.

Dawson can go toe to toe with Ismagulov, but he also is very accurate with his punches and is better in the ground game. If the American takes it to the canvas, Ismagulov could be in trouble.

As far as Method of Victory is concerned since Ismagulov has gone the distance in all 6 of his fights at the UFC level, you can’t stray from that now. Take DAWSON BY POINTS (+260) for a solid value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-240) is just a little too expensive for my liking. I am not a giant fan of the price for FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? YES (-182), either. However, the price is a little more tolerable if you toss it into a parlay.

Playing ‘Yes’ is also more palatable if you don’t want to declare a winner but still would like some action on the bout.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 48: Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 48 odds and lines between Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout in the main event, Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 48 — also known as UFC Vegas 76 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 48: Strickland vs. Magomedov odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Records: Strickland (26-5-0) | Magomedov (25-4-1)

Strickland looks to build upon his victory over Nassourdine Imavov last time out in the main event in mid-January. The Xtreme Couture representative stopped a 2-bout losing streak with the unanimous-decision win. He had previously dropped bouts against Jared Cannonier via split decision (Dec. 2022), and he was knocked out in the 1st round by Alex Pereira at UFC 276 (July 2022). Strickland is still 7-2 across his past 9 bouts dating back to Oct. 2018.

Magomedov made his company debut in September, besting Dustin Stoltzfus in just 19 seconds at Accor Arena in Paris at UFC Fight Night 209. The 32-year-old has plenty of experience, posting a 25-4-1 career professional record with 14 KO/TKO wins and 6 victories via submission.

Magomedov holds a 2-inch reach advantage over the more experienced favorite. The sample size for Magomedov is too small, based on just 19 seconds.

As far as Strickland is concerned, he has 5.76 significant strikes landed per minute with a 43.20% accuracy. He also has a 1.04 takedown average with a 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage and a 0.23 submission average.

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UFC on ESPN 48: Strickland vs. Magomedov odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:25 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Strickland -162 (bet $162 to win $100) | Magomedov +136 (bet $100 to win $136)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -148 | Under +116)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +116 | No -146)

UFC on ESPN 48: Strickland vs. Magomedov picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

MAGOMEDOV (+136) was certainly impressive in his brief UFC debut to earn a big step up in competition against the veteran Strickland.

Abus showed tremendous punching power, overwhelming Stoltzfus in short order. However, he won’t be able to catch Strickland napping, as the savvy veteran won’t be caught with an unexpected big blow and will be much more prepared.

Strickland is likely to try and get the fight to the mat and avoid a toe-to-toe confrontation. That might be his best bet, although for all of the props he gets for being a great grappler, he hasn’t won via submission since his company debut at UFC 171 against Bubba McDaniel in March 2014. It could be a mistake too, as Magomedov’s 2 previous wins before landing in the UFC came via submission: once by guillotine and once by kimura.

Over/Under (O/U)

Based on what we saw from Magomedov last time out it seems unlikely he’ll get anywhere near Round 4. Playing UNDER 3.5 (+116) gives bettors an eternity. If you want even more wiggle room, NO (-146): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t priced out of line, and you needn’t even declare a winning combatant.

I am liking MAGOMEDOV BY KO/TKO (+350) for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 3 1/2 times. He has shown he can win in a number of ways at the lower levels, but the raw punching power is too hard to overlook. There will be a lot of fans out there excited to see Magomedov shut Strickland’s yapper, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ABC 5: Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 5 odds and lines between Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa with MMA picks and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Austen Lane and Justin Tafa meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11:30 a.m. ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Lane makes his UFC debut. The 35-year-old has won his past 6 professional bouts, including a 1st-round knockout of Richard Jacobi in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 6, Week 9 in mid-September 2022.

In 15 career fights for the Bulldog Boxing team representative, 14 have ended via KO/TKO with an 11-3 record in those bouts. His other fight ended with a submission victory by rear-naked choke over Brad Taylor at Combat Night Pro 20 in mid-March 2021.

Tafa, nicknamed “Bad Man,” is a 29-year-old Australian southpaw who has had a roller coaster ride since making his UFC debut in October 2019. He is 3-3, although he has won his past 2 bouts after a dismal start. Both of the wins are 1st-round victories via KO/TKO against Parker Porter and Harry Hunsucker since December 2021.

Tafa has 9 career pro bouts, with 6 wins and 1 loss by way of KO/TKO, with a pair of decision losses at the UFC level against Carlos Felipe and Jared Vanderaa.

Tafa has the edge in significant-strikes landed per minute at 5.09 to just 4.17 for Lane, and the Aussie is much more accurate, too. He has a 58.84% significant strikes landed per minute percentage, to just 48.33% for Lane. Neither fight appears terribly interested in going to the mat or submitting foes, so you can mostly avoid those props in this one.

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UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:18 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lane +152 (bet $100 to win $152) | Tafa -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +172 | Under -220)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +440 | No -700)

UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa picks and predictions

Records: Lane (12-3-0) | Tafa (6-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

TAFA (-180) is right at my personal limit for a moneyline wager. However, it isn’t out of line to play Tafa up to -195 if you are tossing him into a multi-way parlay ticket.

The newcomer to UFC, Lane, will be in for a rude welcoming from the more experienced Tafa. He is a power puncher who has racked up the knockouts throughout his brief, but impressive career. The one concern about Tafa, and his potential for a knockout in this fight, is that he gives up 6 inches of reach to Lane.

However, a 20-plus-pound weight difference, 6 years of youth and more frequent and accurate-significant striking should make that reach difference a wash.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-700): Will the fight go the distance? is a foolish play, and cannot be included anywhere, even in a multi-part parlay.

I would roll the dice on OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+172) for the plus-money opportunity. While the past 2 fights for both fighters at their respective levels have not made it out of the 1st round, I think we’ll see a more calculated Lane in his UFC debut.

He won’t be looking for, nor will he get, the opportunity for an early knockout, and I don’t think Tafa will be able to get the quick kill against an impressive prospect like Lane.

I’ll take the chance this one makes it a little deeper into the bout. At the same time, I like TAFA BY KO/TKO (-115) in the Method of Victory section.

TAFA TO WIN BY KO/TKO IN ROUNDS 2 OR 3 (+500) is also worth playing lightly for a chance to multiply your initial wager times 5.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ABC 5: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 5 odds and lines between Josh Emmett vs. Josh Topuria with MMA picks and predictions.

In a featherweight bout in the main event, Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11:30 a.m. ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Emmett is looking to bounce back after losing in a February title fight to Yair Rodriguez at UFC 284. Prior to that setback, Emmett had won 5 straight fights to earn his title shot against Rodriguez. Emmett had gone the distance in each of the previous 3 fights before his February defeat.

Topuria burst onto the UFC scene in October 2020 with a unanimous-decision win over Youssef Zalal. That started a 5-0 run with 3 KO/TKO wins and his most recent submission victory over Bryce Mitchell at UFC 282 in December.

Emmett is the grizzled veteran at 38 years old, trying to hold on to what is his. Topuria is the next hotshot prospect at just 26 years old. Emmett holds the 1-inch reach advantage, and he has a 4.17-to-3.32 significant strikes landed per minute. However, the Georgian fighter is much more accurate at 53.27% on those strikes, to just 39.39% for Emmett.

In the ground game, Topuria also has a 2.45-to-1.07 takedown-average advantage, and he has a 46.15% takedown accuracy to just 37.93% for Emmett. Plus, the huge favorite has a 2.45 submission average, while Emmett has a mere 0.10.

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UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:53 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Emmett +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Topuria -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +176 | Under -230)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +460 | No -750)

UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria picks and predictions

Records: Emmett (18-3-0) | Topuria (13-0-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s wily veteran against hot prospect, and one of the more interesting fights in non-PPV cards in recent memory.

Topuria (-350) is likely to continue his meteoric rise against Emmett (+280), who is getting a little long in the tooth. However, it’s not wise to risk 3½ times your potential return on the heavy favorite.

PASS, and get a little more creative instead.

Over/Under (O/U)

Topuria hasn’t ended up going the distance since his UFC debut against Zalal in October 2020, while Emmett had ended up inside the distance just once in his past 4 outings.

The books strongly feel this one is going to end with some sort of a stoppage, but it’s extremely profitable to bet on YES (+460): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? for an opportunity to multiply your initial wager by 4.6 times.

If you’re not sold on that, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+176) is also a pretty solid opportunity at plus-money, especially since your wager won’t depend on who wins.

However, combining TOPURIA BY POINTS (+850) is also worth a roll of the dice. It’s a lot more profitable than Topuria by KO/TKO (+175). No one could blame bettors for taking a look at the latter, either.

I like big-time values, however, and this card has a ton of potential huge paydays if the heavy favorite can go the distance and win.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ABC 5: Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 5 odds between Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber, with expert MMA picks and predictions.

In a women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Amanda Ribas and Maycee Barber meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 5: Ribas vs. Barber odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11:30 a.m. ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Ribas has alternated wins and losses in each of her previous 5 bouts. She bounced back from a split-decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian in mid-May 2022 to pick up a unanimous-decision win over Viviane Araujo at UFC 285 in March.

The 29-year-old Brazilian has ended up going the distance in 5 of her past 7 fights since a submission win in her UFC debut over Emily Whitmire in late June 2019.

Barber takes the walk to the octagon with a 4-bout win streak in tow. That includes a split-decision win over Andrea Lee last time out on March 25.

Each of Barber’s past 6 fights have ended up going the distance, including a February 2021 loss to Alexa Grasso, the new No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound women’s fighter after the retirement of Amanda Nunes. The last time Barber had a fight finish inside the distance was a 1st-round KO/TKO win over Gillian Robertson in late 2019.

Ribas has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while Barber stands 2 inches taller. The significant strikes margin goes to Ribas at 4.80-to-4.27, while the difference is rather negligible in terms of significant strike-accuracy percentage. Ribas is a little better in the takedown department, leading 2.16-to-1.23, while also posting a 52.0% takedown-accuracy percentage to just 37.04% for Barber.

UFC on ABC 5: Ribas vs. Barber odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:23 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ribas -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Barber +168 (bet $100 to win $168)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +154)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -186 | No +146)

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UFC on ABC 5: Ribas vs. Barber picks and predictions

Records: Ribas (11-3-0) | Barber (12-2-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Barber (+168) burst onto the UFC scene, and she was the “Future.” However, losses to the far more experienced Grasso and Roxanne Modafferi (January 2020) showed she has some holes in the game.

Barber has won the past 4 fights, all going the distance, including wins over the likes of veteran Montana De La Rosa (April 2022) and Jessica Eye (July 2022), as well as a solid win against Miranda Maverick (July 2021). The 25-year-old Barber is positioned for a run up the rankings, and a potential title shot, if she can keep it on the rails.

However, Ribas (-200) might be the toughest fighter Barber has seen to date. The Brazilian has fought the best of the division in her 4-year UFC career, and Barber will have to wait a little longer to make a further jump.

You can’t risk 2 times your potential return on Ribas, however. AVOID and let’s get a little more creative for some wagers with better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-186): Will the fight go the distance? is also a little too expensive for my liking.

Instead, RIBAS BY POINTS (+110) is easily the best value on the board if you are backing the favorite. Neither of these combatants have posted very many finishes lately, and I don’t expect one here, either.

“The Future” will make Ribas work hard, but in the present, it’s going to be the Brazilian fighter by a whisker, even potentially by split decision.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 47: Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 47 odds and lines between Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout in the main event, Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 47 — also known as UFC Vegas 75 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 47: Vettori vs. Cannonier odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Vettori fought Israel Adesanya for the middleweight title at UFC 263 in June 2021 but suffered a unanimous-decision (UD) loss.

“The Italian Dream” bounced back with a UD win over Paulo Costa in a fight night main event in October of that same year, but then suffered a UD loss to Robert Whittaker in Sept. 2022. He is coming off another UD win against Roman Dolidze at UFC 286 in March to get back on track, setting up this fight between 2 guys hungry to make it back to title contention.

Cannonier also lost a title fight against Adesanya at UFC 276 in July 2022, and he bounced back with a split-decision win over Sean Strickland in a fight night main event last time out in mid-December. He is rested and raring to go.

Cannonier holds a 3.5-inch reach advantage, but Vettori is 10 years younger and a bit faster at this point. There isn’t a huge difference in significant strikes landed per minute, with Vettori going for 4.38 and Cannonier good for 4.00. Both are basically the same in terms of accuracy, too.

However, Vettori is much stronger in the ground game, posting a 1.77 takedown average to 0.17 for Cannonier. He’s also way more accurate in the category too, going for 44.26% to just 25.00% for the ‘dog.

UFC on ESPN 47: Vettori vs. Cannonier odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:08 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Vettori -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cannonier +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +145)

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UFC on ESPN 47: Vettori vs. Cannonier picks and predictions

Records: Vettori (19-6-1) | Cannonier (16-6-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

VETTORI (-125) is a strong play, as he is more youthful, and the southpaw can win a fight a number of ways.

Cannonier has the reach advantage, which is good, but if Vettori gets the fight to the mat — even if he doesn’t finish — he’ll grab some valuable points in the eyes of the judges. Vettori has a 0.52 submission average so he can win by that method, by the knockout, or just on points alone.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-200): Will the fight go the distance? is a little on the expensive side, costing you 2 times your potential return.

Instead, look to Method of Victory instead. “The Italian Dream” has gone the distance in 6 consecutive fights, and therefore VETTORI BY POINTS (+100) at even money is a solid play and a much better value than just playing the distance prop.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 47: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joaquim Silva odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 47 odds and lines between Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joaquim Silva with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a lightweight bout on the main card, Arman Tsarukyan and Joaquim Silva meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 47 — also known as UFC Vegas 75 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 47: Tsarukyan vs. Silva odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Tsarukyan suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot in a main event on June 25 last year in one of the more underrated fights of the entire year. It was an absolute war. He redeemed himself with a unanimous-decision win over Damir Ismagulov in mid-December to get back on track.

The Armenian fighter has won 6 of his past 7 bouts, with 2 KO/TKO wins and 4 victories via unanimous-decision with the lone setback coming vs. Gamrot. The 26-year-old has just 3.56 significant strikes landed per minute, but he makes them count, striking at a 55.96% accuracy, to just 43.73% for his counterpart.

The 34-year-old Silva also gives up 3.5 inches in reach to Tsarukyan, and he isn’t much on the mat, either. Meanwhile, the Armenian fighter has a 3.30 takedown average and 33.33% takedown accuracy percentage.

Silva is a big hitter though, and the southpaw dropped Jesse Ronson last time out with a 2nd round victory in October. That win stopped a 2-bout losing streak where he lost via KO/TKO on 2 occasions, including a sloppy effort in a 37-second loss to Ricky Glenn in mid-June 2021. He is just 2-3 in his past 5 fights, with his past 4 fights ending via KO/TKO (2-2).

UFC on ESPN 47: Tsarukyan vs. Silva odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Tsarukyan -1100 (bet $1100 to win $100) | Silva +675 (bet $100 to win $675)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +250 | No -350)

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UFC on ESPN 47: Tsarukyan vs. Silva picks and predictions

Records: Tsarukyan (19-3-0) | Silva (12-4-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

There is no way to justify betting Tsarukyan (-1100), as he would cost you 11 times your potential return. In other words, a $100 wager would net you a profit of $9.09. That’s way too much risk for not enough reward.

Instead, let’s look to the Method of Victory instead. Tsarukyan has gone to the judges in 6 of his 8 UFC fights, so playing TSARUKYAN ON POINTS (+325) for a chance to triple up is a far better value — and a more likely scenario.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+250): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth playing, and it isn’t a bad parlay opportunity with Tsarukyan on points, as well as coupling with one of the other fighters on the card.

Tsarukyan isn’t a big puncher, but he’ll use his 3.5-inch reach advantage to pull Silva in and out, picking and choosing his spots to go for the big shots or takedowns, all the while wowing the judges and earning valuable points.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ESPN 47: Armen Petrosyan vs. Christian Duncan odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 47 odds and lines between Armen Petrosyan vs. Christian Duncan with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout on the main card, Armen Petrosyan and Christian Duncan meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 47 — also known as UFC Vegas 75 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 47: Petrosyan vs. Duncan odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

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Petrosyan is 2-1 since making his UFC debut with a split-decision win over Gregory Rodrigues on Feb. 26, 2022. He has gone the distance in all 3 of his fights since landing with the company, including a unanimous-decision win over AJ Dobson last time out at UFC 280 in October and a unanimous-decision loss to Caio Borralho in July 2022. Petrosyan lands 5.99 significant strikes per minute but with just a 53.06% accuracy.

Duncan made a giant splash in his company debut when he knocked out Dusko Todorovic in the 1st round at UFC 286 in March. The Briton has won all 8 of his fights since turning pro, with 6 victories via KO/TKO and 1 submission by way of rear-naked choke. He went the distance just once, against Will Currie at CW 123. “CLD” lands fewer strikes per minute than Petrosyan at 4.82 but has a 73.68% accuracy.

UFC on ESPN 47: Petrosyan vs. Duncan odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Petrosyan +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Duncan -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)

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UFC on ESPN 47: Petrosyan vs. Duncan picks and predictions

Records: Petrosyan (8-2-0) | Duncan (8-0-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

DUNCAN (-155) appears to be on the fast track in the middleweight division, and the prospect was super impressive topping Todorovic last time out.

He has an overwhelming 8-inch reach advantage in this fight, so he’ll be able to keep the challenger at bay while picking and choosing his spots to get close and go for the kill.

Petrosyan won’t be a pushover by any means, but he is certainly beatable on this Armenian-heavy main card. He has gone the distance in all 3 of his UFC fights and won’t be able to slog his way through this one. Duncan is a heavy hitter who will be looking to deliver the big blow early.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a good play, even if Petrosyan has gone to the judges in all 3 of his UFC fights.

Duncan doesn’t play around, and he could potentially get the KO/TKO win in Round 1. In fact, on the Method of Victory 7-way line, a play of DUNCAN BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+175) is a sharp play, too, thanks mostly due to the ginormous reach advantage.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Bellator 297: Sergio Pettis vs. Patricio Freire odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Bellator 297 odds and lines between Sergio Pettis vs. Patricio Freire with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a bantamweight championship bout in the co-main event, Sergio Pettis and Patricio Freire meet Friday at Bellator 297 at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bellator 297: Pettis vs. Freire odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on live streaming on Bellator’s YouTube channel at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on Showtime at 9 p.m. ET.

Freire, the current Bellator featherweight champ, had made one successful defense of that strap when he topped Adam Borics at Bellator 286 in October. His last fight was a unanimous-decision win over Kleber Koike Erbst in a non-title bout on New Year’s Eve. “Pitbull” has won 10 of his past 11 bouts overall dating back to April 21, 2017.

Pettis took the bantamweight title belt off of Juan Archuleta at Bellator 258 in early May 2021, winning by unanimous decision. He defended the strap with a 4th-round KO/TKO over Kyoji Horiguchi at Bellator 272 in Dec. 2021 in his most recent bout. The champ missed all of 2022 due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament.

Bellator 297: Pettis vs. Freire odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Pettis +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Freire -185 (bet $185 to win $100)

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Bellator 297: Pettis vs. Freire picks and predictions

Records: Pettis (22-5-0) | Freire (35-5-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

PETTIS (+150) enters this fight after the long road back from ACL surgery and rehab. The last time we saw him at 135 pounds, he was dropping Horiguchi to retain his strap.

Freire is looking to make history by winning a title in a third division at Bellator, but one of the greatest of all time in the company will have to wait. Pettis is hungry to get back into action, and he is a tremendous value as an underdog.

Pettis should be able to go this one done, but don’t be surprised to see him have to wow the judges and get it done on points.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Bellator 297: Vadim Nemkov vs. Yoel Romero odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Bellator 297 odds and lines between Vadim Nemkov vs. Yoel Romero with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight championship bout in the main event, Vadim Nemkov and Yoel Romero meet Friday at Bellator 297 at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bellator 297: Nemkov vs. Romero odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on live streaming on Bellator’s YouTube channel at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on Showtime at 9 p.m. ET.

Nemkov looks to defend his strap against the former UFC fighter. He is coming off a majority-decision victory against Corey Anderson at Bellator 288 in November after a no contest against Anderson at Bellator 287 in their first meeting in April 2022.

Since topping Ryan Bader at Bellator 244 on Aug. 21, 2020, Nemkov has successfully defended his title 3 times with the no contest. The 2 other defenses were a 4th-round submission win over Julius Anglickas at Bellator 268 (Oct. 2021) and a unanimous-decision victory over Phil Davis at Bellator 257 (April 2016).

Romero makes his 4th Bellator appearance since losing in a UFC title bout against Israel Adesanya at UFC 248 in March 2020. The Cuban fighter’s Bellator debut was not great, as he lost by split-decision against Phil Davis. He has bounced back with a pair of 3rd-round KO/TKO wins over Alex Polizzi (May 2022) and Melvin Manhoef (Sept. 2022) to position himself for a title shot.

Bellator 297: Nemkov vs. Romero odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:56 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Nemkov -500 (bet $500 to win $100) | Romero +365 (bet $100 to win $365)

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Bellator 297: Nemkov vs. Romero picks and predictions

Records: Nemkov (16-2-0) | Romero (15-6-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

ROMERO (+365) is a giant underdog and a tremendous value. You can multiply your initial wager by more than 3 1/2 times playing the former UFC champ.

The 2-time Olympic wrestling champion from Cuba has a knockout of Luke Rockhold under his belt to win the light heavyweight strap at UFC 221. He narrowly lost by unanimous decision to Adesanya, one of the best to ever do it, in his UFC swan song.

While Romero didn’t start out great in Bellator, falling to Phil Davis by split-decision, he has bounced back with a pair of KO/TKO wins, showing off his signature punching power.

Romero can not only brawl toe-to-toe, but he is strong on the mat if he needs to go there. However, he’ll likely look to keep this one upright as much as possible as Nemkov also showed off his ground game abilities when he submitted Anglickas in one of his defense fights. The current champ is 3-0 via submission in 18 career pro bouts. Romero won’t want to go to the canvas, but instead will likely opt for a brawl instead.

Nemkov won’t go quietly into the night, but the time is now for Romero to ascend to the top of the division, and he is a solid value to do so.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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