In a middleweight bout in the main event, Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 48 — also known as UFC Vegas 76 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 48: Strickland vs. Magomedov odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
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Records: Strickland (26-5-0) | Magomedov (25-4-1)
Strickland looks to build upon his victory over Nassourdine Imavov last time out in the main event in mid-January. The Xtreme Couture representative stopped a 2-bout losing streak with the unanimous-decision win. He had previously dropped bouts against Jared Cannonier via split decision (Dec. 2022), and he was knocked out in the 1st round by Alex Pereira at UFC 276 (July 2022). Strickland is still 7-2 across his past 9 bouts dating back to Oct. 2018.
Magomedov made his company debut in September, besting Dustin Stoltzfus in just 19 seconds at Accor Arena in Paris at UFC Fight Night 209. The 32-year-old has plenty of experience, posting a 25-4-1 career professional record with 14 KO/TKO wins and 6 victories via submission.
Magomedov holds a 2-inch reach advantage over the more experienced favorite. The sample size for Magomedov is too small, based on just 19 seconds.
As far as Strickland is concerned, he has 5.76 significant strikes landed per minute with a 43.20% accuracy. He also has a 1.04 takedown average with a 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage and a 0.23 submission average.
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UFC on ESPN 48: Strickland vs. Magomedov odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:25 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Strickland -162 (bet $162 to win $100) | Magomedov +136 (bet $100 to win $136)
- Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -148 | Under +116)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +116 | No -146)
UFC on ESPN 48: Strickland vs. Magomedov picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
MAGOMEDOV (+136) was certainly impressive in his brief UFC debut to earn a big step up in competition against the veteran Strickland.
Abus showed tremendous punching power, overwhelming Stoltzfus in short order. However, he won’t be able to catch Strickland napping, as the savvy veteran won’t be caught with an unexpected big blow and will be much more prepared.
Strickland is likely to try and get the fight to the mat and avoid a toe-to-toe confrontation. That might be his best bet, although for all of the props he gets for being a great grappler, he hasn’t won via submission since his company debut at UFC 171 against Bubba McDaniel in March 2014. It could be a mistake too, as Magomedov’s 2 previous wins before landing in the UFC came via submission: once by guillotine and once by kimura.
Over/Under (O/U)
Based on what we saw from Magomedov last time out it seems unlikely he’ll get anywhere near Round 4. Playing UNDER 3.5 (+116) gives bettors an eternity. If you want even more wiggle room, NO (-146): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? isn’t priced out of line, and you needn’t even declare a winning combatant.
I am liking MAGOMEDOV BY KO/TKO (+350) for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 3 1/2 times. He has shown he can win in a number of ways at the lower levels, but the raw punching power is too hard to overlook. There will be a lot of fans out there excited to see Magomedov shut Strickland’s yapper, too.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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