In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Austen Lane and Justin Tafa meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11:30 a.m. ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.
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Lane makes his UFC debut. The 35-year-old has won his past 6 professional bouts, including a 1st-round knockout of Richard Jacobi in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 6, Week 9 in mid-September 2022.
In 15 career fights for the Bulldog Boxing team representative, 14 have ended via KO/TKO with an 11-3 record in those bouts. His other fight ended with a submission victory by rear-naked choke over Brad Taylor at Combat Night Pro 20 in mid-March 2021.
Tafa, nicknamed “Bad Man,” is a 29-year-old Australian southpaw who has had a roller coaster ride since making his UFC debut in October 2019. He is 3-3, although he has won his past 2 bouts after a dismal start. Both of the wins are 1st-round victories via KO/TKO against Parker Porter and Harry Hunsucker since December 2021.
Tafa has 9 career pro bouts, with 6 wins and 1 loss by way of KO/TKO, with a pair of decision losses at the UFC level against Carlos Felipe and Jared Vanderaa.
Tafa has the edge in significant-strikes landed per minute at 5.09 to just 4.17 for Lane, and the Aussie is much more accurate, too. He has a 58.84% significant strikes landed per minute percentage, to just 48.33% for Lane. Neither fight appears terribly interested in going to the mat or submitting foes, so you can mostly avoid those props in this one.
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UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:18 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Lane +152 (bet $100 to win $152) | Tafa -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +172 | Under -220)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +440 | No -700)
UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa picks and predictions
Records: Lane (12-3-0) | Tafa (6-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
TAFA (-180) is right at my personal limit for a moneyline wager. However, it isn’t out of line to play Tafa up to -195 if you are tossing him into a multi-way parlay ticket.
The newcomer to UFC, Lane, will be in for a rude welcoming from the more experienced Tafa. He is a power puncher who has racked up the knockouts throughout his brief, but impressive career. The one concern about Tafa, and his potential for a knockout in this fight, is that he gives up 6 inches of reach to Lane.
However, a 20-plus-pound weight difference, 6 years of youth and more frequent and accurate-significant striking should make that reach difference a wash.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-700): Will the fight go the distance? is a foolish play, and cannot be included anywhere, even in a multi-part parlay.
I would roll the dice on OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+172) for the plus-money opportunity. While the past 2 fights for both fighters at their respective levels have not made it out of the 1st round, I think we’ll see a more calculated Lane in his UFC debut.
He won’t be looking for, nor will he get, the opportunity for an early knockout, and I don’t think Tafa will be able to get the quick kill against an impressive prospect like Lane.
I’ll take the chance this one makes it a little deeper into the bout. At the same time, I like TAFA BY KO/TKO (-115) in the Method of Victory section.
TAFA TO WIN BY KO/TKO IN ROUNDS 2 OR 3 (+500) is also worth playing lightly for a chance to multiply your initial wager times 5.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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