Tag: UFC on ABC 5 odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC on ABC 5: Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 5 odds and lines between Austen Lane vs. Justin Tafa with MMA picks and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Austen Lane and Justin Tafa meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11:30 a.m. ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Lane makes his UFC debut. The 35-year-old has won his past 6 professional bouts, including a 1st-round knockout of Richard Jacobi in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 6, Week 9 in mid-September 2022.

In 15 career fights for the Bulldog Boxing team representative, 14 have ended via KO/TKO with an 11-3 record in those bouts. His other fight ended with a submission victory by rear-naked choke over Brad Taylor at Combat Night Pro 20 in mid-March 2021.

Tafa, nicknamed “Bad Man,” is a 29-year-old Australian southpaw who has had a roller coaster ride since making his UFC debut in October 2019. He is 3-3, although he has won his past 2 bouts after a dismal start. Both of the wins are 1st-round victories via KO/TKO against Parker Porter and Harry Hunsucker since December 2021.

Tafa has 9 career pro bouts, with 6 wins and 1 loss by way of KO/TKO, with a pair of decision losses at the UFC level against Carlos Felipe and Jared Vanderaa.

Tafa has the edge in significant-strikes landed per minute at 5.09 to just 4.17 for Lane, and the Aussie is much more accurate, too. He has a 58.84% significant strikes landed per minute percentage, to just 48.33% for Lane. Neither fight appears terribly interested in going to the mat or submitting foes, so you can mostly avoid those props in this one.

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UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:18 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Lane +152 (bet $100 to win $152) | Tafa -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +172 | Under -220)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +440 | No -700)

UFC on ABC 5: Lane vs. Tafa picks and predictions

Records: Lane (12-3-0) | Tafa (6-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

TAFA (-180) is right at my personal limit for a moneyline wager. However, it isn’t out of line to play Tafa up to -195 if you are tossing him into a multi-way parlay ticket.

The newcomer to UFC, Lane, will be in for a rude welcoming from the more experienced Tafa. He is a power puncher who has racked up the knockouts throughout his brief, but impressive career. The one concern about Tafa, and his potential for a knockout in this fight, is that he gives up 6 inches of reach to Lane.

However, a 20-plus-pound weight difference, 6 years of youth and more frequent and accurate-significant striking should make that reach difference a wash.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-700): Will the fight go the distance? is a foolish play, and cannot be included anywhere, even in a multi-part parlay.

I would roll the dice on OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+172) for the plus-money opportunity. While the past 2 fights for both fighters at their respective levels have not made it out of the 1st round, I think we’ll see a more calculated Lane in his UFC debut.

He won’t be looking for, nor will he get, the opportunity for an early knockout, and I don’t think Tafa will be able to get the quick kill against an impressive prospect like Lane.

I’ll take the chance this one makes it a little deeper into the bout. At the same time, I like TAFA BY KO/TKO (-115) in the Method of Victory section.

TAFA TO WIN BY KO/TKO IN ROUNDS 2 OR 3 (+500) is also worth playing lightly for a chance to multiply your initial wager times 5.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ABC 5: Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 5 odds and lines between Josh Emmett vs. Josh Topuria with MMA picks and predictions.

In a featherweight bout in the main event, Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11:30 a.m. ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Emmett is looking to bounce back after losing in a February title fight to Yair Rodriguez at UFC 284. Prior to that setback, Emmett had won 5 straight fights to earn his title shot against Rodriguez. Emmett had gone the distance in each of the previous 3 fights before his February defeat.

Topuria burst onto the UFC scene in October 2020 with a unanimous-decision win over Youssef Zalal. That started a 5-0 run with 3 KO/TKO wins and his most recent submission victory over Bryce Mitchell at UFC 282 in December.

Emmett is the grizzled veteran at 38 years old, trying to hold on to what is his. Topuria is the next hotshot prospect at just 26 years old. Emmett holds the 1-inch reach advantage, and he has a 4.17-to-3.32 significant strikes landed per minute. However, the Georgian fighter is much more accurate at 53.27% on those strikes, to just 39.39% for Emmett.

In the ground game, Topuria also has a 2.45-to-1.07 takedown-average advantage, and he has a 46.15% takedown accuracy to just 37.93% for Emmett. Plus, the huge favorite has a 2.45 submission average, while Emmett has a mere 0.10.

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UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:53 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Emmett +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Topuria -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +176 | Under -230)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +460 | No -750)

UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs. Topuria picks and predictions

Records: Emmett (18-3-0) | Topuria (13-0-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s wily veteran against hot prospect, and one of the more interesting fights in non-PPV cards in recent memory.

Topuria (-350) is likely to continue his meteoric rise against Emmett (+280), who is getting a little long in the tooth. However, it’s not wise to risk 3½ times your potential return on the heavy favorite.

PASS, and get a little more creative instead.

Over/Under (O/U)

Topuria hasn’t ended up going the distance since his UFC debut against Zalal in October 2020, while Emmett had ended up inside the distance just once in his past 4 outings.

The books strongly feel this one is going to end with some sort of a stoppage, but it’s extremely profitable to bet on YES (+460): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? for an opportunity to multiply your initial wager by 4.6 times.

If you’re not sold on that, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+176) is also a pretty solid opportunity at plus-money, especially since your wager won’t depend on who wins.

However, combining TOPURIA BY POINTS (+850) is also worth a roll of the dice. It’s a lot more profitable than Topuria by KO/TKO (+175). No one could blame bettors for taking a look at the latter, either.

I like big-time values, however, and this card has a ton of potential huge paydays if the heavy favorite can go the distance and win.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC on ABC 5: Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 5 odds between Amanda Ribas vs. Maycee Barber, with expert MMA picks and predictions.

In a women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Amanda Ribas and Maycee Barber meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 5 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 5: Ribas vs. Barber odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 11:30 a.m. ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

Ribas has alternated wins and losses in each of her previous 5 bouts. She bounced back from a split-decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian in mid-May 2022 to pick up a unanimous-decision win over Viviane Araujo at UFC 285 in March.

The 29-year-old Brazilian has ended up going the distance in 5 of her past 7 fights since a submission win in her UFC debut over Emily Whitmire in late June 2019.

Barber takes the walk to the octagon with a 4-bout win streak in tow. That includes a split-decision win over Andrea Lee last time out on March 25.

Each of Barber’s past 6 fights have ended up going the distance, including a February 2021 loss to Alexa Grasso, the new No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound women’s fighter after the retirement of Amanda Nunes. The last time Barber had a fight finish inside the distance was a 1st-round KO/TKO win over Gillian Robertson in late 2019.

Ribas has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while Barber stands 2 inches taller. The significant strikes margin goes to Ribas at 4.80-to-4.27, while the difference is rather negligible in terms of significant strike-accuracy percentage. Ribas is a little better in the takedown department, leading 2.16-to-1.23, while also posting a 52.0% takedown-accuracy percentage to just 37.04% for Barber.

UFC on ABC 5: Ribas vs. Barber odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:23 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ribas -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Barber +168 (bet $100 to win $168)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +154)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -186 | No +146)

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UFC on ABC 5: Ribas vs. Barber picks and predictions

Records: Ribas (11-3-0) | Barber (12-2-0)

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Barber (+168) burst onto the UFC scene, and she was the “Future.” However, losses to the far more experienced Grasso and Roxanne Modafferi (January 2020) showed she has some holes in the game.

Barber has won the past 4 fights, all going the distance, including wins over the likes of veteran Montana De La Rosa (April 2022) and Jessica Eye (July 2022), as well as a solid win against Miranda Maverick (July 2021). The 25-year-old Barber is positioned for a run up the rankings, and a potential title shot, if she can keep it on the rails.

However, Ribas (-200) might be the toughest fighter Barber has seen to date. The Brazilian has fought the best of the division in her 4-year UFC career, and Barber will have to wait a little longer to make a further jump.

You can’t risk 2 times your potential return on Ribas, however. AVOID and let’s get a little more creative for some wagers with better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-186): Will the fight go the distance? is also a little too expensive for my liking.

Instead, RIBAS BY POINTS (+110) is easily the best value on the board if you are backing the favorite. Neither of these combatants have posted very many finishes lately, and I don’t expect one here, either.

“The Future” will make Ribas work hard, but in the present, it’s going to be the Brazilian fighter by a whisker, even potentially by split decision.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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