First look at full-strength Saints offense should be right around the corner

First look at full-strength Saints offense should be right around the corner

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The New Orleans Saints offense is in stasis. They’re not necessarily playing scared, but they’re very much keeping a foot off the gas pedal while working with so many absences. It’s no surprise that almost half their plays (78 rushing attempts and 14 targets, accounting for 92 of their 220 plays) have gone to Alvin Kamara, force-feeding their best player opportunities to keep the offense on schedule. So when will this offense start to look like itself?

Hopefully that resolution is right around the corner. New Orleans’ top two receivers aren’t available. While Tre’Quan Smith says he’ll return from injured reserve after the Saints’ bye week, there’s less certainty with Michael Thomas, who is on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list until that Week 6 bye. The hope is that he’ll be ready to practice ahead of Week 7’s game with the Seattle Seahawks, but it’s the kind of thing we have to see to believe given the way his last year has gone.

And the offensive line has been banged up too. The strength of the team, that unit has been without all-star left tackle Terron Armstead and starting center Erik McCoy, putting less-capable backups into prominent spots. Neither of them have gone on injured reserve, but they were both non-participants in Wednesday’s practice session. Barring a change on Thursday, we probably won’t see them until after the bye week either.

So that suggests the Saints are one more game (and then a week of rest) away from fielding an offense that looks like one we’re used to, with Thomas drawing a ton of targets and Smith stretching the field with McCoy and Armstead keeping pass protection sharp. And with a stunningly efficient Jameis Winston under center, maybe those upgrades are enough to get New Orleans back among league leaders on offense. We’ve just got to wait a little longer and hope they can beat the Washington Football Team without their best players this weekend.

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Studs and Duds from Saints’ loss to Giants

Studs and Duds from New Orleans Saints’ loss to New York Giants

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The New Orleans Saints may have fallen short to the New York Giants last week, but there’s surprisingly a lot to like in their performance. Individuals rose to the occasion to give them an 11-point lead late in the game; if Sean Payton had done a better coaching job and made more aggressive decisions, they probably hold onto it for a win.

But that wasn’t the case. The Saints’ loss was helped by poor outings from some players put into high-leverage situations, which they’d gotten away with up until this point. Some changes may be necessary. Let’s get into this week’s studs and duds:

Saints only have themselves to blame for kicking miscues

The Saints haven’t even worked out a free agent kicker in a month and a half. They only have themselves to blame for field goal miscues:

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The New Orleans Saints a problem kicking field goals. Sean Payton knows it. Fans know it. Aldrick Rosas himself has to be hyper-aware of it. The veteran signed to hold the post until Wil Lutz can return from core muscle surgery hit a rough patch last week with two missed field goals, followed by another miss on Sunday against the Giants.

That’s three unsuccessful field goal tries in two weeks, from ranges of 36, 52, and 58 yards. Kicking from 50-plus is hardly a sure thing but he’s got to go out there and do his job like everyone else. Instead he’s gotten worse as his time in New Orleans has drawn on. The Saints passed on a

Payton admitted as much after the Giants loss, but he shouldn’t be pointing fingers anywhere but at himself. We’ve known for a week that Rosas was a liability. Warning signs have persisted for longer than that — it’s no accident that Payton only chose to attempt a single field goal through the first two games, not trusting Rosas to execute what’s asked of him. He also missed an easy extra-point attempt in his lone preseason game with the Saints and looked shaky on a 52-yarder.

The Saints have had opportunities to upgrade, but instead they’ve been complacent. They haven’t so much as brought a free agent in for a workout since the Aug. 19 tryouts that introduced them to Rosas (along with rookies Alex Kessman and Dominik Eberle). There was a lot of speculation among fans that the Saints could acquire rookie Jake Verity (like Lutz, another Justin Tucker understudy with the Baltimore Ravens) and they had a chance when he was waived during final roster cuts, but they still sat on their hands.

Maybe Verity or someone else makes the field goal Rosas missed, or at least gives Payton enough confidence to try other kicks instead of settling for punts or gambling on fourth down conversions. Maybe not. But with two losses in their first four games, the Saints can’t be happy with the hole they’ve dug for themselves.

So what can they do about it? Lutz is eligible to return whenever the team doctors give him the green light, having rested on injured reserve for the NFL-required three week minimum. Hopefully he’s all healed up and ready to kick against the Washington Football Team next Sunday, though it shouldn’t shock us if the Saints remain conservative in his recovery and keep him on ice through the bye week. It’s just another storyline to monitor in what’s shaping up to be a very busy week.

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What will it take for Sean Payton to trust Jameis Winston?

What will it take for Sean Payton to trust Jameis Winston?

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I’ve already written about how Sean Payton may have broken Jameis Winston in order to fix his worst tendencies, but Winston showed some of those positive qualities I’d been searching for in Sunday’s game with the New York Giants. Then Payton effectively took Winston out of the game, showing a baffling lack of trust in his quarterback.

The fourth quarter began with New Orleans possessing the football at New York’s 18-yard line. They had three more possessions in the final period, their control of the pace of play spanning 7 minutes and 35 seconds of game clock, and Winston totaled just four pass attempts. Payton took the game out of his hands to try and run out the clock behind Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara, a strategy that worked last week. He played not to lose instead of choosing to play to win.

What’s different is he had a strong enough lead against a poor enough offense to trust that strategy in New England, against an overwhelmed rookie with a toothless receiving corps. This time around Payton went into the fourth quarter having already seen Daniel Jones carve up his secondary with big plays to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and John Ross. He watched Saquon Barkley score from 54 yards out in-between his final possessions to cut New Orleans’ lead to just three points and stubbornly refused to change his approach. With the stakes rising higher, Payton showed the world how little faith he has in Winston.

And it’s not Winston’s fault. He’s done what he’s been told. Sure, he could have executed some plays better but he’s thrown eight touchdowns against just two interceptions (without Michael Thomas, Tre’Quan Smith, Erik McCoy, and Terron Armstead playing a single game together). Through those four games he’s completed 55 of his 86 pass attempts (63.9%) for 613 passing yards, taking 7 sacks but not fumbling once.

That projects over a 17-game season as a 233-of-366 line for 2,605 yards and 34 touchdowns against 9 interceptions and 30 sacks. That’s not good enough for Payton for to give him the green light to win a game when it really counts? The guy who called “Ambush” in Super Bowl XLIV would rather play it safe to a fault?

Winston hasn’t chaffed against getting subbed out for Hill — who, we’ve got to recognize, threw the Saints’ only interception today on an ill-advised shot play to the 5-foot-6 Deonte Harris covered by the 6-foot-1 James Bradberry. And, yeah, it matters that Winston is working with a weaker supporting cast on offense than he ever dealt with in Tampa Bay.

Maybe Payton is holding last week’s frightful throwaway-turned-touchdown against Winston even now. Maybe he isn’t sold on the progress Winston has made since his turnover-prone Buccaneers days. Maybe Winston needs to start bringing donuts to morning film meetings to try and win back his coach’s favor. Crossing that divide, whatever its cause, is up to Payton. He’s the one cooling on his handpicked passer. If all he wants his quarterback to do is hit some 8-yard curls and slants and lose snaps to Hill, why not just start Hill anyway?

I just hope they figure it out soon. Right now it doesn’t feel like Payton would trust Winston to walk his dog, much less lead his offense to a last-minute scoring drive. That’s obviously not a sustainable strategy. The good news is that it’s a long season, the Saints are still 2-2, and they’re getting enough impact players back in the weeks ahead to get them back on track. If they don’t steady the ship, look for Payton to do whatever’s necessary in the spring to go find a quarterback he trusts as implicitly as he did Drew Brees (like, I don’t know, disgruntled franchise passers already considering trade demands like Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers).

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There aren’t many worse omens in football than losing to the Giants

There aren’t many worse omens in football than losing to the Giants

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Week 4’s loss to the New York Giants has to be tough for the New Orleans Saints to accept. Their defense fell apart at the seams against a Daniel Jones, who went into the game having never thrown for 300-plus yards since Jason Garrett was hired as his play caller; Jones finished the day with 402 passing yards, including a pair of touchdown passes.

Things haven’t gone well for teams who have lost to the Giants lately. New York only won six games last season (twice beating Washington), and of those opponents just one finished the year with a winning record — the 12-4 Seattle Seahawks, who got bounced out of the playoffs in the wild-card round. The other four teams to lose to Big Blue in 2020 finished a combined 21-41-2.

This trend stretches on into 2019, when New York won just four games (again twice against Washington). None of their opponents ended with a winning record and they finished with a cumulative 15-33 record. The Giants have played a lot of bad football in recent years. They went into this game without a win for good reasons. Losing to them yourself says a lot of ugly things about your team and where it’s headed.

Of course there’s time for the Saints to defy this and turn things around. Their plan remains the same: heal up and get a handful of starters back from various reserve lists (wide receivers Tre’Quan Smith and Michael Thomas, defensive linemen David Onyemata and Marcus Davenport, linebacker Kwon Alexander, kicker Wil Lutz) around the bye week, then go on a tear. Maybe it’s a good sign that the Saints have a game with that same sorry Washington team scheduled up next.

It’s a pretty vision. Let’s hope it doesn’t become too clouded with another loss on the books.

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Saints vs. Giants recap: Everything we know about 27-21 loss

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants recap: Everything we know about 27-21 loss

That’s painful. The New Orleans Saints lost their first game back in the packed Caesars Superdome in more than 600 days by playing not to lose instead of going for a win in the fourth quarter, allowing the winless New York Giants to walk into their building and outcoach and outplay Sean Payton’s team. Here’s everything we know about Week 4’s disappointing game:

Saints vs. Giants: How to watch, listen, stream and wager on the Week 4 game

Saints vs. Giants: How to watch, listen, stream and wager on the Week 4 game

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Finally. We’re finally back — tens of thousands of New Orleans Saints fans are headed for the Caesars Superdome to pack the house for the first time in what feels like ten years, with a winless New York Giants team reluctantly stepping up to challenge them. Here’s everything you need to know so you can catch the game.

New York Giants (0-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)

When: Sunday, Oct. 3 at 1:00 p.m. ET/Noon CT

Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, La.

Referee: Brad Rogers

The game will be broadcast regionally on FOX affiliates, with Jonathan Vilma and Kenny Albert in the booth and Sara Walsh reporting from the sideline. If you live in one of these blue areas, you’ll get the game:

Other options for keeping up with the game:

Betting lines are from Tipico Sports via Sportsbook Wire

  • Money line: Giants +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Saints -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Giants +7.5 (-115) | Saints -7.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Can the Giants snap the Saints’ 15-game October win streak?

Saints vs. Giants: Will Sean Payton’s 15-game October win streak end?

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No, probably not. October has been better for the New Orleans Saints than any other month since Sean Payton took over in 2006; his teams have gone 41-13 in the second month of the NFL regular season, winning 15 consecutive games. They haven’t lost in October since 2016’s road game with the Kansas City Chiefs, and they haven’t lost at home in October since the Cleveland Browns upset them way back in 2010.

So why are Payton’s teams so successful here? Maybe he’s just a big fan of the month and all it brings: pumpkin spice lattes, bonfires, wool socks and sweaters, apple picking, and of course Halloween. Could all those seasonal festivities energize him?

Again, probably not. The more realistic explanation comes from what this month represents on the NFL calendar. Teams typically stumble out of the gate in September, taking a few weeks to find their bearings and sort out the playbook, and for coaches to find what their players really do well. You can only learn so much from training camp competition between your own players and a handful of snaps in preseason games when neither side is truly trying to win.

And this is when Payton shines. After getting three or four games of tape behind him, he’s got a good idea of what works and what doesn’t, and that’s reflected in his team’s winning percentage. They’ve improved from a 27-27 tally in September (precisely .500) to a 41-13 record in October (clocking in at .759).

Sure, things tend to settle down later in the season. Opponents catch up to what Payton has changed and how his team is working. The level of competition increases as the schedule moves into November and December. The stakes climb higher with playoff seeding on the line. Sometimes Payton’s teams rise to the occasion. Sometimes they’ve faltered.

We’ll see where they go in 2021, but it’s a good bet that this 0-3 Giants team won’t find their first win of the season in New Orleans.

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10 burning questions for Saints vs. Giants in Week 4

We teamed up with Giants Wire to explore 10 burning questions for this week’s Saints game:

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The New Orleans Saints and New York Giants are preparing for what looks like a lopsided matchup, but the G-Men could make it exciting if they take advantage of some Saints vulnerabilities. To get the best analysis, I went behind enemy lines to swap questions and answers with Giants Wire’s Dan Benton. Here’s what we learned:

Saints choose their most-common uniform combo for Week 4 vs. Giants

Saints choose their most-common uniform combo for Week 4 vs. Giants:

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Here’s your Sunday dress code: the New Orleans Saints announced Friday that they will be pairing their black home jerseys with matching black pants in their upcoming matchup with the New York Giants. It’s the first time we’ve gotten a look at this specific uniform combination this season, but it’s the most popular combo the Saints have used in the Sean Payton era (76 games, including the playoffs).

However, it’s also been worn for their most losses (30) dating back to 2006. The good news is that the Saints have lost just five games in black-on-black since 2019, so they’ve got some good luck attached.

For the curious, here is how each uniform combo ranks by winning percentage since Payton was hired in ’06:

  1. White jerseys, white pants: 7-2 (.778)
  2. “Color Rush” alternates: 8-3 (.727)
  3. “Black and Gold” throwbacks: 2-1 (.667)
  4. Black jerseys, gold pants: 23-14 (.622)
  5. White jerseys, black pants: 41-25 (.621)
  6. Black jerseys, black pants: 46-30 (.605)
  7. White jerseys, gold pants: 33-24 (.578)