2023 NFL Draft: The best draft steal for every NFL team

Every NFL draft has its selection of steals — those players who could surprise despite their low selections — and here’s one for every NFL team.

One of the many reasons the Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII was the job that general manager Brett Veach did outside of the first round of the 2022 draft. Three defensive backs (Bryan Cook in the second round, Joshua Williams in the fourth, and Jaylen Watson in the seventh) were difference-makers all season, and seventh-round running back Isiah Pacheco became the team’s bellcow back down the stretch. Also, second-round receiver Skyy Moore joined Pacheco with touchdowns in that Super Bowl victory over the Eagles.

First-round hits are nice, but it’s almost worse to miss in the first round than it is better to win there from an opportunity cost perspective. If you want to refresh your roster at a championship level, you had better get those picks right on the second and third day. Veach and his staff did that, and it was the difference that made all the difference in the end.

Moving to the 2023 NFL draft, we’ve selected one second- or third-day pick for every NFL team who could have a similar impact on their NFL roaters sooner than mater. Each of these players have reasons for their relatively low picks in line with their tape, stats, and talent, but these are the kinds of finds that can turn a team around over time.

2023 NFL Draft: Final grades for all 32 NFL teams

Draft grades! You love them, you hate them! And here’s Doug Farrar’s draft grades to add to the cacophony!

What is the point of grading a draft right after it happens? We have no idea what the prospects will do at the NFL level, so it seems that the primary reason for draft grades is clicks.

Which is not altogether inaccurate, to be brutally honest. I can only speak to my process, but when I’m grading a draft right after the fact, it’s all about taking the work I did pre-draft and projecting that analysis to the NFL with the understanding of NFL homes for every player. Grades are evaluations in the moment. Ideally, you’re weighing prospect strength with positional value and draft capital expended. It’s more than a letter and some snark for clicks.

That’s what I did here in grading the 2023 NFL draft for all 32 teams. I could be completely wrong regarding how these players do at the next level, but that’s not really the point. The point is more about how the teams did with the resources they had, the capital they spent, what they got in return, and what they might have left behind.

That’s the mindset I took into the grades you see here. And here’s some of the evaluation I have done to get to this point.

Position lists and scouting reports for the 2023 draft

Top 50 players

Secret Superstars of the 2023 draft

New York Jets select Will McDonald IV with the 15th pick. Grade: B+

The Jets took Iowa State EDGE Will McDonald, whose college tape does not at all show his true potential.

(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

I might have preferred an offensive tackle or receiver here, but McDonald is a highly underrated speed end whose true potential won’t show up on his college tape. A 6-foot-4, 240-pound speed end shouldn’t be inside the tackles in three-man fronts, but that’s where McDonald was far too often for Iowa State last season. You put him in four- and five-man fronts, and you just have to love what he can do with his bend, spin moves, and surprising power.

Height: 6′ 3⅝” (46th percentile) Weight: 239 (3rd)
40-Yard Dash: N/A
10-Yard Split: N/A
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: 36″ (79th)
Broad Jump: 132″ (98th)
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A

Wingspan: 82¼” (80th)
Arm Length: 34⅞” (90th)
Hand Size: 9½” (26th)

Bio: McDonald was also a baseball, basketball and track star at Waukesha North High in Waukesha, Wisconsin, and the three-star recruit chose Iowa State over Minnesota and Baylor. Over five seasons with the Cyclones, McDonald put up 35 sacks, 20 quarterback hits, 72 quarterback hurries, eight batted passes, 11 forced fumbles, 56 tackles, and 73 stops. McDonald had 981 snaps outside the tackles, 396 over the tackles, and 101 in the B-gaps. He also spent 21 of his snaps in the box, and four in the slot.

Stat to Know: In 2022, McDonald spent just 80% of his time designated as an edge defender, and not always to his best benefit. We’ll get into this right away.

Strengths: So, here’s the problem. Iowa State plays a ton of three-man fronts in which McDonald was either inside or outside the tackles. This forced him to work outside, or outside to inside, without the help you’d get in more populated fronts, and he also had to deal with the inside shoulder of the tackle and the outside shoulder of the guard far more than anybody his size should have to.

When he was outside the tackle, McDonald did get to show off his inside counters, which are pretty nice. He’ll put some NFL tackles off-center pretty quickly with moves like these from shoulder to shoulder.

McDonald did develop some cool hacks when he had to work inside. On this run stop against Kansas, he had to deal with the slide from the offensive line, and he beat the left tackle by out-running him to the gap. Not that you’d want your 6-foot-4, 240-pound edge rusher in this position, but hey — points to McDonald for making it work.

The more I watched McDonald, the more I was impressed with his technical palette. Here against Texas Tech, he was actually the EDGE in a four-man front (progress!), and he did a nice job of disengaging from his first spin move with a second to unravel and present pressure.

McDonald also has some speed-to-power skills.

Weaknesses: Setting the schematic schisms aside, McDonald isn’t going to bust up a lot of double teams or be a power run defender, but you don’t really want him on that wall, anyway.

Conclusion: The NFL team that takes Will McDonald IV might wind up with one of the best surprises and biggest bargains in this draft class. His speed, bend, play strength (at times) and advanced technical bag should have him becoming a problem as a rusher outside the tackles with more help than he had in college. There are times as a draft evaluator when you have to remind yourself that college coaches don’t always put their players in ideal positions to succeed, and you then have to take the traits to the pros with that in mind. McDonald has enough good tape in enough ways to make that a pleasant experience.

NFL Comparison: Robert Quinn. I’m not going to compare McDonald to Dwight Freeney, though there are similarities in the spin techniques and the ability to create turnovers. So, I’ll go with Quinn, selected with the 14th pick of the 2011 draft by the Rams. Quinn has parlayed a smooth, quick, athletic took box to 106 sacks, 505 total pressures, and 26 forced fumbles in his NFL career so far. It’s hard to give an accurate comp for McDonald right now because he’ll be used so differently in the NFL, and to his great advantage. I can’t wait to see what he does at the next level.

4 takeaways from the Jets’ pre-draft press conference

New York Jets GM Joe Douglas fielded questions ahead of the 2023 NFL draft. Here are four takeaways from the press conference.

One of the ways to make a splash in the NFL draft is to do so the Monday of draft week.

That is precisely what the New York Jets did as they agreed to terms with the Green Bay Packers to send Aaron Rodgers to the Big Apple.

Jets general manager Joe Douglas anchored the team’s pre-draft press conference Tuesday, and spoke of a “positive energy” at One Jets Drive following the trade.

“I can speak to upstairs where we were with football operations and all the scouts, all the coaches, there were some high fives and hugs and a lot of excitement,” Douglas said.

Here are some takeaways from Douglas’ presser.

2023 NFL Mock Draft: First-round projections after the Aaron Rodgers trade

How might the first round of the 2023 NFL draft play out after the Aaron Rodgers trade? Let’s mock it through!

Well, now we know. After nearly two decades with the same team, the Green Bay Packers offloaded their quarterback to the New York Jets, and moved on to their recent first-round draft pick before his rookie contract expired.

But enough about Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Let’s talk about Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love! On Monday, the Packers traded Rodgers to the Jets for a swap of the 13th and 15th picks in the 2023 draft in Green Bay’s favor, as well as the Jets’ 43rd pick and 207th pick in this draft, as well as a conditional second-round pick in 20234 that turns into a first-round pick if Rodgers plays at least 65% of the Jets’ snaps in 2023. The Jets also get Green Bay’s 170th pick in this draft.

It’s a big haul for the Packers, and now, for the first time since 1991, they get to deal with the same level of quarterback uncertainty that most other NFL teams have had to deal with most of the time.

We don’t really know which version of Rodgers the Jets are getting — he turns 40 on December 2, and his 2022 season was far from his best. But the trade has happened, and here’s how the first round of the 2023 draft might play out as a result.

Aaron Rodgers’ 2022 season presents an unclear picture of his future potential

What version of Aaron Rodgers are the Jets getting? The 2022 tape paints a surprisingly muddy picture.

Now that the New York Jets have finalized the trade with the Green Bay Packers that gives them Aaron Rodgers, Gang Green has — in theory, at least — the greatest quarterback in franchise history. Although, with apologies to everyone from Joe Namath to Richard Todd to Mark Sanchez… well, it’s a pretty low bar. The Jets are not a team noted for great quarterback play, and the thought here is that the current team is set up everywhere else for a deep playoff run, and Rodgers just puts them over the top.

Hypothetically, that is absolutely the case. Rodgers at his peak was the best pure thrower of the football I’ve ever seen, and his peak lasted quite a while. He was doing stuff in the early parts of the 2010s that bordered on optical illusion, and given what the Jets are spending on this deal, they clearly believe he’s still got more than enough in the tank at age 39 (he’ll turn 40 on December 2), to do what Tom Brady did in the 2020 season and Matthew Stafford did the next year — become the final addition on a team ready for the Lombardi Trophy.

That’s great in theory. What we are dealing with in Rodgers’ 2022 season are numbers that are well below what he have come to expect. Rodgers completed 350 of 542 passes for 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 91.1. That’s his fifth-lowest completion rate (64.6%) over his career as a starter since 2008. It’s his third-lowest touchdown rate (4.8%), his fourth-highest interception rate (2.2%), his lowest Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (5.95), and his lowest passer rating.

Of course, we’re talking about a “bad” season from one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, so the Jets would take that every day, and several times every Sunday. But when we look at Rodgers’ future, even with a good team, it’s worth diving into the tape to see exactly where he is at this point in his career, and what he still has to offer.

Jets, Packers finally work out trade for Aaron Rodgers

The Packers and Jets have finally figured out a trade for Aaron Rodgers

The Aaron Rodgers trade soap opera has come to a conclusion, per Adam Schefter of ESPN.

The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets came to terms on a deal on Monday.

Per Schefter:

And more news: Rodgers will not wear No. 12, which was retired to honor Joe Namath. Look for the multiple-time MVP winner to don No. 8,

 

Jets to give WR Allen Lazard a four-year, $44 million contract. Grade: B

The New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers’ favorite 2022 target to their roster. We still have no idea what that means for Aaron Rodgers.

We have no earthly idea if the Jets agreeing to sign former Green Bay Packers receiver Allen Lazard to a four-year, $44 million contract with $22 million guaranteed brings Aaron Rodgers that much closer to agreeing to the trade he swore he wouldn’t drag out, but here we are for the moment. The deal does amplify the Jets’ receiver room, already full of interesting talents like Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Denzel Mims, who had no actual quarterback to throw them the football in 2022.

What does Lazard bring to Gen Green? Size, deep speed, blocking ability, and toughness at the catch point. Would the Jets have gone after him, all things being equal? Who the heck knows?

With Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling out the door in Green Bay, Lazard became Rodgers’ primary deep receiver in 2022, with nine catches of 20 or more air yards on 28 targets for 263 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a pretty low hit rate, but when you consider the relative lack of other receivers who could take the heat off Lazard at the intermediate and deep levels of the field (at least until rookie Christian Watson started blowing up), plus Lazard’s status as a contested-catch receiver, those numbers need to be seen in context.

At 6-foot-5 and 227 pounds, Lazard has good downfield speed and route acumen, but you really want him on that wall when it’s time to make a throw into super-tight coverage, and it’s up to him to beat the defender with his physicality. This 35-yard boundary catch against Jets cornerback D.J. Reed (one of the NFL’s more underrated players at his position) in Week 6 proves the theory.

Some might balk at the contract numbers here, but $22 million guaranteed over four years isn’t bad at all for a professional receiver who does a lot of things well, and that’s what Lazard is. Now, we’ll see (someday) if this is the move Rodgers needs to contact his deity of choice and see about accepting the trade.

2023 NFL Mock Draft: Projections after Bears/Panthers trade… and an Aaron Rodgers move

Here’s how the first round of the 2023 NFL draft might look after the Panthers/Bears trade… and a possible trade involving Aaron Rogers.

Now that the Carolina Panthers have jumped everyone else in the 2023 NFL draft following a massive trade with the Chicago Bears, it’s time to reset all our mock drafts and take a new look at the entire first round.

Based on my research, I think the Panthers moved up to take Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud, leaving Alabama’s Bryce Young to the Houston Texans with the second overall pick.

Since we’re re-setting the mock anyway, let’s throw in the Green Bay Packers/New York Jets trade that sends Aaron Rodgers to Gang Green, since that seems to be all but a formality at this point.

As part of that (for now) hypothetical trade, let’s give the Packers the Jets’ 13th overall pick as they head for their own big re-set with Jordan Love as their quarterback.

So… now that we have the ultimate NFL Friday News Dump, here’s how the first round might look under these particular circumstances.

(Note: The Miami Dolphins, who would have had the 21st overall pick in the first round, forfeited that pick as punishment from the NFL for tampering). 

Sauce Gardner burns Cheesehead in hopes Aaron Rodgers lands with Jets

Sauce Gardner would love for Aaron Rodgers to become the big cheese with the Jets

Sauce Gardner, star rookie DB of the New York Jets, caused a stir when he donned a Cheesehead after a game against the Packers in 2022.

The moment turned into an incident when the Cheesehead was unceremoniously removed.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/G9cbmbK6z5M

Now, said Cheesehead is no more after Gardner turned it into a grilled Cheesehead in hopes Aaron Rodgers winds up a teammate of the Defensive Rookie of the Year with Gang Green.