2023 NFL Draft: The best NFL player/scheme fits in the first round

Anthony Richardson, Will McDonald IV, Zay Flowers, Deonte Banks, and Mazi Smith are walking into ideal NFL environments for their talents.

Per Pro Football Reference’s Weighted Career Approximate Value metric, the three most valuable picks in the 2022 NFL draft were cornerbacks.

Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, selected by the Jets with the fourth overall pick, dominated in his rookie season in a Robert Saleh defense that demanded an alpha cornerback who was fine on an island. Marcus Jones, selected by the Patriots with the 85th overall pick, knew enough about how to play man coverage to make a different right away in a Bill Belichick defense in which man coverage is a non-negotiable. And Tariq Woolen, selected with the 153rd pick by the Seahawks, was a massive defender with that same kind of alpha mentality who fit perfectly in a Pete Carroll defense where “having that dog in him” is as important as any particular measurable, though Woolen’s alien-like measurables certainly helped — and showed up on the field.

And here’s the thing — if you took those three players and made flip teams in 2022, there’s no guarantee that any of them would have done well as they did. Putting a rookie in the most hospitable environment possible is an obvious path to success. At least, you think it’s obvious, until you watch some NFL teams completely fail to do it.

Here, we have five specific new marriages between NFL teams and draft picks in which the fit is the thing, and it looks really good — for all kinds of reasons.

Panthers were reportedly ‘high’ on Jets DE Will McDonald IV

Panthers GM Scott Fitterer hinted at trading up into the back of the first round for a particular group of players. One of those targets may have been Will McDonald IV.

The day before the Carolina Panthers got cracking on the 2023 NFL draft, general manager Scott Fitterer dropped a little hint about the backend of the first round.

In an interview with team reporter Kristen Balboni, Fitterer said there were players he would’ve been willing to trade up for on Thursday night. Here’s the exact quote:

“We’re trying to figure that out right now. We’re making calls. We know where the group of players are where we wanna be. There’s a group where we’d wanna go up. There’s a scenario where we’d wanna go up and look at a player—if we can get there.”

Well, we may know who one of those players was.

According to Mike Kaye of The Charlotte Observer, the Panthers had their eye on Iowa State University defensive end Will McDonald IV.

That interest makes complete sense given Carolina’s need for pass rushers. Plus, everyone and their grandmother who did a two-round mock draft seemingly had the 6-foot-4, 239-pound defender going to the Panthers.

But, they got beat to the punch. The New York Jets ended up plucking McDonald off the board with the 15th overall pick while the Panthers got their edge help in the third round with University of Oregon’s DJ Johnson—who they, perhaps ironically, did trade up for.

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New York Jets select Will McDonald IV with the 15th pick. Grade: B+

The Jets took Iowa State EDGE Will McDonald, whose college tape does not at all show his true potential.

(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

I might have preferred an offensive tackle or receiver here, but McDonald is a highly underrated speed end whose true potential won’t show up on his college tape. A 6-foot-4, 240-pound speed end shouldn’t be inside the tackles in three-man fronts, but that’s where McDonald was far too often for Iowa State last season. You put him in four- and five-man fronts, and you just have to love what he can do with his bend, spin moves, and surprising power.

Height: 6′ 3⅝” (46th percentile) Weight: 239 (3rd)
40-Yard Dash: N/A
10-Yard Split: N/A
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: 36″ (79th)
Broad Jump: 132″ (98th)
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A

Wingspan: 82¼” (80th)
Arm Length: 34⅞” (90th)
Hand Size: 9½” (26th)

Bio: McDonald was also a baseball, basketball and track star at Waukesha North High in Waukesha, Wisconsin, and the three-star recruit chose Iowa State over Minnesota and Baylor. Over five seasons with the Cyclones, McDonald put up 35 sacks, 20 quarterback hits, 72 quarterback hurries, eight batted passes, 11 forced fumbles, 56 tackles, and 73 stops. McDonald had 981 snaps outside the tackles, 396 over the tackles, and 101 in the B-gaps. He also spent 21 of his snaps in the box, and four in the slot.

Stat to Know: In 2022, McDonald spent just 80% of his time designated as an edge defender, and not always to his best benefit. We’ll get into this right away.

Strengths: So, here’s the problem. Iowa State plays a ton of three-man fronts in which McDonald was either inside or outside the tackles. This forced him to work outside, or outside to inside, without the help you’d get in more populated fronts, and he also had to deal with the inside shoulder of the tackle and the outside shoulder of the guard far more than anybody his size should have to.

When he was outside the tackle, McDonald did get to show off his inside counters, which are pretty nice. He’ll put some NFL tackles off-center pretty quickly with moves like these from shoulder to shoulder.

McDonald did develop some cool hacks when he had to work inside. On this run stop against Kansas, he had to deal with the slide from the offensive line, and he beat the left tackle by out-running him to the gap. Not that you’d want your 6-foot-4, 240-pound edge rusher in this position, but hey — points to McDonald for making it work.

The more I watched McDonald, the more I was impressed with his technical palette. Here against Texas Tech, he was actually the EDGE in a four-man front (progress!), and he did a nice job of disengaging from his first spin move with a second to unravel and present pressure.

McDonald also has some speed-to-power skills.

Weaknesses: Setting the schematic schisms aside, McDonald isn’t going to bust up a lot of double teams or be a power run defender, but you don’t really want him on that wall, anyway.

Conclusion: The NFL team that takes Will McDonald IV might wind up with one of the best surprises and biggest bargains in this draft class. His speed, bend, play strength (at times) and advanced technical bag should have him becoming a problem as a rusher outside the tackles with more help than he had in college. There are times as a draft evaluator when you have to remind yourself that college coaches don’t always put their players in ideal positions to succeed, and you then have to take the traits to the pros with that in mind. McDonald has enough good tape in enough ways to make that a pleasant experience.

NFL Comparison: Robert Quinn. I’m not going to compare McDonald to Dwight Freeney, though there are similarities in the spin techniques and the ability to create turnovers. So, I’ll go with Quinn, selected with the 14th pick of the 2011 draft by the Rams. Quinn has parlayed a smooth, quick, athletic took box to 106 sacks, 505 total pressures, and 26 forced fumbles in his NFL career so far. It’s hard to give an accurate comp for McDonald right now because he’ll be used so differently in the NFL, and to his great advantage. I can’t wait to see what he does at the next level.

Saints make an unconventional pick in last-minute USA Today mock draft

The Saints made an unconventional pick in this last-minute USA Today mock draft, drafting lightweight pass rusher Will McDonald IV:

It kind of feels like a lost cause to check in on all of these final mock drafts given the likelihood of the New Orleans Saints trading up and out of the No. 29 overall pick, but it’s still a good idea to check in on what the experts are predicting for the black and gold.

And this last-minute projection from USA Today’s Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz has the Saints making an unconventional pick at the end of Round 1: former Iowa State Cyclones pass rusher Will McDonald IV. Here’s what Middlehurst-Schwartz wrote of that match:

Perpetually in a playoff push, New Orleans might be inclined to jump-start its front four after losing Marcus Davenport in free agency. The 6-4, 235-pound McDonald throws blockers off balance with his rapid burst and elasticity as a pass rusher, but he’ll have to bulk up to stay on the field.

McDonald would add a lot of juice to the Saints depth chart at defensive end, but he isn’t the kind of prospect they typically value. He’s about 20 pounds underweight for their minimum size at the position, and even their lightest defensive ends have had to bulk up to nearly 270 pounds before they were allowed to get on the field. So McDonald would probably need to pack on 35 pounds before he’d be getting snaps ahead of Tanoh Kpassagnon and Payton Turner, much less starting in front of Carl Granderson across from Cameron Jordan.

It’s frustrating that the Saints would pass up on good players because of this philosophy, but it’s been the case before and it’s bound to happen again. Dennis Allen believes in his prototype for the position even if it’s led him into strikeouts with Davenport and Turner. There’s little to suggest things are changing on this front, but we’ll see. Maybe the Saints surprise us. McDonald was very productive in college and tested like a high-end athlete. It just comes down to him not fitting the thresholds the Saints use.

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Eagles biggest question at each defensive position ahead of 2023 NFL draft

We’re looking at the Philadelphia Eagles’ biggest question at each defensive position ahead of the 2023 NFL draft

As the 2023 NFL Draft nears, we’re looking at every position on both sides to find the most central questions ahead of round one.

Philadelphia lost seven defensive contributors in free agency but added Kentavus Street (DT), Justin Evans (Safety), Terrell Edmunds (safety), and Nicholas Morrow (LB) to a unit that returns Brandon Graham, Darius Slay, James Bradberry, Fletcher Cox, Avonte Maddox, Josh Sweat, Reed Blankenship and more.

The Eagles will be carried by their offense in 2023, and while Jalen Hurts leads a unit full of stars, we’re looking at Philadelphia’s biggest question at each defensive position ahead of Thursday night’s draft.

4-Down Territory: The biggest questions for the 2023 NFL draft

In this week’s “4-Down Territory,” Kyle Madson and Doug Farrar get into the four most important questions as we near the 2023 NFL draft. 

In this week’s “4-Down Territory,” Kyle Madson of Niners Wire and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire get into the four most important questions as we near the 2023 NFL draft.

  1. Do the Houston Texans HAVE to take a quarterback with the second overall pick?
  2. Is Texas running back Bijan Robinson worthy of a top-five pick, regardless of positional value?
  3. Beyond Aaron Rodgers, how many current NFL quarterbacks will be taken before (or during) the draft?
  4. Who are our underrated prospects who will make big impacts on their NFL teams, regardless of their Day 2 or Day 3 status?

You can watch this week’s episode of “4-Down Territory” right here:

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Colts’ 2023 NFL draft big board: Edge Rushers

Don’t be surprised if the Colts add another edge rusher in the draft.

The Indianapolis Colts, like all teams, will continue to look for depth additions and hidden gems at the edge rusher positions when the 2023 NFL draft arrives Thursday night.

Though the tandem of Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo is enticing, the Colts also added Samson Ebukam in free agency and brought back Tyquan Lewis on a one-year deal this offseason. It’s a solid room, but we know Chris Ballard will always look for pass-rush help.

It’s a strong edge rusher class with several prospects boasting upside while fitting what the Colts want to add to Gus Bradley’s defense.

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As we break down the prospects by round, think of the “rounds” as tiers and when I believe the team should begin to consider drafting them.

We also created big boards at the following positions:

Quarterbacks Running Backs Wide Receivers Tight Ends Interior OL Offensive Tackles
Defensive Tackles Edge Rushers Linebackers Cornerbacks Safeties

Here’s a look at my big board for the edge rushers as it relates to the Colts in the 2023 NFL draft:

2023 NFL mock draft round-up: Experts share final predictions for Eagles with 30th pick

We’re doing a 2023 NFL mock draft roundup, and the consensus from the experts seems to be leaning toward an edge rusher or running back at No. 30 overall for the Philadelphia Eagles.

The 2023 NFL draft is now just two days away, and as the teams manage their final draft boards, the experts are releasing their last mocks.

Philadelphia has been linked to an All-American running back, the top edge rusher, defensive tackle, and offensive tackle on the board.

However, only Howie Roseman knows what he’ll do when placed on the clock.  With the final mock drafts pouring in, the consensus at No. 30 Jahmyr Gibbs or Will McDonald IV.

Panthers fill wide range of needs in NFL.com’s 7-round mock draft

NFL Media analyst Chad Reuter must’ve been listening to Panthers GM Scott Fitterer during his pre-draft press conference on Tuesday.

When Carolina Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer rattled off his team’s remaining needs during his pre-draft press conference earlier this week, NFL.com analyst Chad Reuter must’ve been listening.

In his fresh seven-round mock, Reuter hooks the Panthers up with almost everything their general manager is looking for. And here, according to Fitterer, is exactly what Fitterer is looking for:

“Yeah, I think you always need a pass rusher,” he told reporters on Tuesday. “We could beef up the offensive line. We’ve done a lot of things at receiver, but you can always add a receiver. Linebacker. No team’s ever complete and you can always add whoever.”

First things first, perhaps quite literally in this case, Reuter begins with the obvious atop the board—University of Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. He writes:

The Panthers choose an intelligent, humble leader in Young, who will make plays from the pocket despite his lack of size while also evading pressure and finding targets downfield on the run.

He then puts the rest of the pieces together for a pretty nice puzzle . . .

  • 39th overall: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
  • 93rd overall: Parker Washington, WR, Penn State
  • 114th overall: Wanya Morris, OT, Oklahoma
  • 132nd overall: Brodric Martin, DT, Western Kentucky
  • 145th overall: Christopher Smith II, S, Georgia

Pass rusher? Check.

Wide receiver? Check.

Beef? Check

So while this draft is primarily about the franchise quarterback they’re about to take with the first overall selection, the Panthers would probably be quite content if the rest of the weekend rolls out like Reuter’s got it.

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2023 NFL draft: Will McDonald IV had top-30 visit with Seahawks

While a lot of the attention has gone to the interior DL, they have actually met with more edge prospects than any other position.

Yesterday was the last day that teams could bring in prospects for official meetings ahead of the 2023 NFL draft. One theme has been clear throughout the pre-draft process: Seattle is intensely focused on improving their defensive line. While a lot of the attention has gone to the interior DL, they have actually met with more edge prospects than any other position, including consensus top-ranked Will Anderson Jr. from Alabama.

We learned of another yesterday when PFN’s Tony Pauline reported that Will McDonald IV had an official top-30 visit with the Seahawks.

At the Scouting Combine, McDonald was measured as 6-foot-4, 239 pounds with arms just under 35″ and 9.5″ hands. He posted a 36″ vertical and an 11’0″ broad jump.

While that above average athleticism for his position is alluring, his college production was outright fantastic. In 48 games at Iowa State, he totaled 34 sacks, 40.5 tackles for a loss, seven passes defensed and 10 forced fumbles. Here are the highlights.

McDonald is ranked No. 6 at his position according to the consensus big board. He is projected to be picked late in the first or early in the second round.

In addition to Anderson and McDonald, the Seahawks have also met with LSU’s BJ Ojulari, Louisville’s YaYa Diaby, Tennessee’s Byron Young, Georgia’s Nolan Smith, Michigan’s Mike Morris and Wisconsin’s Nick Herbig.

2023 NFL draft: Tracking prospect meetings for the Seahawks

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