Fantasy football draft strategy tips and advice – Page 7

Fantasy football draft prep: 12 common mistakes to avoid

A dozen rules fantasy footballers must follow for consistent success.

Our annual “draft prep” series mostly caters to novice players, but every once in a while a veteran player requires a refresher on basics we may take for granted.

These rules are in no particular order, and they apply to all levels of experience among fantasy owners. Just as important as the “what you should do” to create a winner in fantasy drafting, avoiding simple pitfalls is a must.

1) Living in the past: Assuming successes and failures from last year automatically will carry over to this year’s results is a quick trip to Loserville. Each year is brand new and requires a reset of the old memory bank.

2) Stay sober: While it may seem silly, don’t let one draft party of hard boozing affect an entire season of fantasy football. Party it up after the draft and celebrate your soon-to-be championship roster.

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3) No one likes a homer: Well, except for that Homer. Heavily drafting players from your favorite team tends to lead to an entire season of hangover-filled Monday mornings. This also includes taking a specific player over a better option just because that player is on your favorite team. Be objective.

4) Draft by the rules: Not knowing your league’s scoring structure, lineup composition, and/or bylaws generally results in utter failure. At a minimum, it translates into lost points.

5) Stretch it out: Flexibility in fantasy drafts is essential. Gamers with a rigid strategy miss out on key value due to their inability to zig when others are zagging.

6) No F.O.M.O.: All too often owners will see or sense a miniature run at a position and overreact out of the fear of missing out. Always having a sound backup plan alleviates concern in this area.

7) Mocking mock drafters: “I don’t need preparation!” declares the eventual last-place owner on draft day. Everyone needs practice. Look back at all of the things in life that required some repetitions before you improved. Don’t take my word for it … ask your significant other.

8) Bye week blues: This cuts both ways — getting caught up in not paying attention to bye weeks as well as outright passing on talent because it would create multiple players at the position on bye. Later in the year, bye weeks are easier — not harder — to overcome due to months of roster manipulation.

9) Leaving money on the table: Specifically for those who participate in auctions, leaving any amount of money on the table is inexcusable. Spend it all, even if you have to pay up at the end of the auction on an inconsequential player.

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10) Peer pressure: Let’s face it, even seasoned veterans of fantasy don’t enjoy being ridiculed by 11 mates after making a questionable pick. There’s a major difference between being laughed at for taking a kicker in Round 1 and reaching a round or two for a sleeper at a skilled position.

11) ADP obsession: Time after time, owners get hung up on what the average draft placement suggests. It is merely a guideline, and whenever a service offering ADP compiles the data, it is impossible to completely weed out all variations and nuance. Look for ADP charts that offer date ranges and flexible sorting. Use it for nothing more than a ballpark idea of when positional trends typically begin.

12) Drafting to trade: For some unknown reason, every year I have gamers asking me about which players to target solely for trading purposes. Drafting players for a potential trade bargaining piece down the line is unwise. Way too much can (and usually does) go wrong in this scenario. This is where strictly choosing the “best player available” can lead to unwanted consequences.

Fantasy football mock draft series: May takeaways

Is it too early to pick up on trends in fantasy football mock drafts?

It is mid-May, and fantasy football drafts are gaining steam. While I usually have completed several before the NFL draft, this year I opted for a more relaxed approach, and a recently hosted industry mock was my first of the season.

Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here. The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft.

Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t select kickers of defensive teams), here are a few generalized observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.

Every Round 1 pick was a running back, minus a WR (Tyreek Hill) chosen at No. 11 overall. Five RBs came off the board in Round 2, which mostly consisted of receivers.
The first QB came off of the board in late Round 4 (Patrick Mahomes). It’s odd to see Michael Thomas fall to the middle of Round 3, which is his current ADP, so get used to it — at least until more is know about the starting quarterback battle.
In the first 100 picks, 9 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 10 TEs were drafted.
Drafting in the top six is a great situation this year. You’re bound to come away with a legit No. 1 running back. There’s enough depth at the position to either go with a pair in the opening two rounds or alternate between RB and WR in the first four rounds while still coming away with a strong nucleus.
Quarterback remains quite deep, with a viable starter being available into the 12th round or so. Tight end remains a little top-heavy, but it has filled out more so than the past couple of years.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 11 RBs, 1 WRs
2nd: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
3rd: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
4th: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 8 WRs, 1 TE
5th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 6 WRs
6th: 1 QB, 3 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
7th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs
8th: 5 QBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs
9th: 4 RBs, 5 WRs, 3 TEs
10th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE

My team

1:05) RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

I strongly considered Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott, but it was Taylor’s health and offensive line that made the difference. Pick 5 overall is a nice problem to have in 2021.

2:08) RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team

I intended to come away with two RBs off the bat. Gibson’s youth, TD prowess, offensive line, upgraded quarterback situation, and limited competition drew me to him over Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Najee Harris and D’Andre Swift.

3:05) WR Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

I agonized over Allen in a new offense or Michael Thomas with a new, unsettled QB situation … Allen’s chemistry with Justin Herbert has me feeling more comfortable with a coin flip of a decision.

4:08) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

My queue ahead of choosing Kupp: George Kittle, Julio Jones, Mike Evans … all three went in that order. Kupp gets a QB upgrade and should remain extremely involved. Nice consolation.

5:05) WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

While Seattle should be more balanced this year, Lockett remains a strong WR2 and is my third receiver. The debate mostly came down to him and Courtland Sutton, but Adam Thielen was given thought, too.

6:08) TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Drafting TEs this early isn’t usually my thing, but there was a clear drop-off in expected production after Andrews. I’m encouraged the Baltimore WR upgrades helping him see fewer doubles.

7:05) RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers

My biggest gamble … Sermon is an ideal fit for this zone-blocking scheme and should ascend the depth chart in fairly short order. The primary worry is consistency, especially if QB Trey Lance starts.

8:08) QB Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Maybe Brady is another gamble, but the dude is immune to Father Time and has the best receiving corps in football. There should be at least one more QB1 season in his geriatric tank.

9:05) RB Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders

Meh … not terribly inspiring, but there’s room for a major workload if Josh Jacobs continues to be prone to minor injuries or suffers a serious one. Drake will have an occasional flex role.

10:08) WR Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders

Ruggs’ rookie year was nothing short of awful. He gets the benefit of the doubt after an unconventional 2020 offseason. Fingers crossed, he’ll showcase his freakish athleticism with regularity in the upcoming campaign.

11:05) WR Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots

I’m confident in my top three receivers, and Henry Ruggs was a gamble, but Agholor should be fairly safe to cover byes or injuries. He has room to quickly takeover the Pats’ WR pecking order.

12:08) QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

With Tom Brady’s age, a backup is a must. I wanted Matthew Stafford; Burrow should be fine after knee reconstruction, and his WR corps is as promising as the defense is porous.

13:05) RB Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints

Purely a late flier on the “what if” Alvin Kamara were to suffer a serious injury … I wanted relative stability in my fifth RB following a gamble on Trey Sermon.

14:08) WR Tyrell Williams, Detroit Lions

Someone has to catch passes in Motown, right? While D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson may combine for 180 receptions or more, Williams was a reliable WR3/flex during his career before missing last season with a shoulder injury.

Fantasy football take: Panthers acquire Sam Darnold for draft picks

Darnold travels to greener pastures and sees his stock looking up.

Some people were convinced New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold would survive a new regime’s temptation of drafting BYU quarterback Zach Wilson No. 2 overall later this month after incoming wideout Corey Davis seemed to spill the beans about being told the former No. 3 selection would be the starting quarterback in 2021.

Others suggested the Jets could still draft Wilson and let Darnold start until it was no longer practical. Now we all know the plans have effectively been etched into stone with Darnold being traded to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for a 2021 sixth-rounder, a 2022 second-round choice, and a ’22 pick in the sixth.

The Jets now will turn the keys over to a more exciting prospect who doesn’t have the stigma of admitting to seeing ghosts on the field. From New York’s perspective, Wilson is more physically gifted than the former USC Trojan, and while he is mostly inexperienced, it’s not unfair to question how he could be a step backward from Darnold.

As for the Panthers, the move presumably sends Teddy Bridgewater to the bench or puts him on the trading block. He acquitted himself admirably in 2020 given all of the changes around him. The well-traveled quarterback could function as a stopgap for a team looking to either groom as rookie or wait another year to draft its franchise passer.

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It’s also fair to wonder what the Panthers’ staff saw in Darnold that they couldn’t extract from Bridgewater. Perhaps there’s some good old-fashioned hubris at play here … coaches are confident in their ability to get the most out of a player, and we’ve seen Carolina offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s guidance work wonders over the past two years, dating back to his time at LSU. And it’s worth noting Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has a storied history of turning around teams in a hurry. Steering into the skid keeps the car on the track, so he deserves some deference in this situation.

Fantasy football outlook

Every now and again, a change of scenery and introduction to a new system revives a career. This is where fantasy footballers should feel mildly optimistic. Darnold, who turns 24 this summer, enters his fourth year as a starting quarterback and endured possibly the worst the NFL had to offer in his time with the Jets. The talent was putrid around him. The defense fell off the map after showing promise. His team had no running game to rely on to alleviate pressure. He learned under arguably the worst head coach in recent memory. A pandemic to threaten his maturation process. The list goes on, but no one wants excuses. Gamers want results.

An offseason that should more closely resemble a traditional program will benefit Darnold. He also has quite possibly the best running back in the game. The receivers in Carolina — one of whom is a familiar face in Robby Anderson — present a major upgrade at the position. The Panthers still have the No. 8 overall pick to improve Darnold’s weaponry, and free agency has a couple of worthwhile names still searching for a home.

It is not as dreary of a situation as he faced with the Jets at any point in his tenure. That said, fantasy footballers shouldn’t be keen on drafting him as anything more than a low-tier backup in 2021. He will have his detractors based on past results, and some drafters will give him a boost in their rankings. The safest response is Darnold belongs on the bench in deeper leagues and the wire in more casual, smaller formats. Look his direction if you’re into playing the matchups with a weekly QB rotation, so long as he is paired with a more reliable partner.

The long-range outlook will depend upon how much Carolina can get out of him in Year 1. He really could be a bridge to another starter in 2022 if Darnold still has Casper whispering in his ear when he surveys a field.

Six points with David Dorey

David Dorey’s take on six items heading into the weekend

Week 8 is here, and playing the Falcons is no longer as much fun. The Steelers are the last man standing with an unbeaten record but they are heading into Baltimore for their toughest matchup of the year. We’re still losing a couple of fantasy starters every week and some guys like Raheem Mostert and Michael Thomas are into their second injury of the season.

It’s been an odd year with plenty of injuries. But it is certainly memorable.

Six items thinking about for the weekend:

WR Michael Pittman – The Colts 2.02 pick was on injured reserve with a calf injury, but he’s been designated to come off. That gives the Colts a 21-day window starting last Wednesday to get him back onto the active roster. The 6-4 wideout from USC runs a 4.5/40 and caught 101 passes as a senior. The Colts passing offense has been a disappointment this year other than Week 6 against the Bengals.T.Y. Hilton hasn’t clicked with anyone since Andrew Luck left and at 30 years old, he could be on the permanent downturn.Parris Campbell was brought on as a deep threat but Pittman was hoped to become an every-down starter and big presence in the middle of the field. Marcus Johnson is just a fourth-year, undrafted wideout with never more than 277 yards in a season and he just posted 108 yards on five catches last week. Johnson’s is not the long-term solution that Pittman was drafted to become. He could still figure in later in the season.
RB DeeJay Dallas – The utility back never gained more than 850 yards in Miami but he was the Seahawks fourth-round pick. Dallas moved up to No. 3 on the depth chart behind Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. Travis Homer is also used but Carson, Hyde and Homer have not practiced this week. There is some hope that Hyde or Homer might get well enough to play against the visiting 49ers this week.The Seahawks move the offense based largely on what the backfield and two starting wide receivers. It’s always good to watch a back get a starting opportunity and Dallas may end up on the field this weekend. Practice on Friday will give more clarity but he’s the only 100% healthy back they currently have.
WR Rashard Higgins – The Browns lost Odell Beckham to a torn ACL so the rest of 2020 will have a new split end. Rashard Higgins was working from the slot and Donovan Peoples-Jones was the backup for Beckham. While Peoples-Jones ended with 56 yards and a touchdown on thre catches last week, Higgins will move into the starting role and already posted six catches for 110 yards last week.The Browns face the Raiders this week and then go into their bye. Returning in Week 10, they face the Texans, Eagles, Jaguars, and Titans next. Jarvis Landry has been banged up all year and has scored. He may see an uptick with Beckham out, but Higgins stands to benefit the most with Beckham out. The Browns prefer to run the ball, but Higgins already showed what can happen when they put him in a starting role.
QB Ben DiNucci – The seventh-round pick from James Madison is in line to start for the Cowboys this week, and depending on how well he does and what happens with Andy Dalton, he may end up with more starts than just this week at the Eagles. This may not be pretty, given that DiNucci only threw three passes and yet was sacked three times and lost two fumbles to Washington last week in limited play.While there is a difference between playing the Eagles vs. Weber State or William and Mary, DiNucci threw for 3,441 yards and 29 touchdowns last year and he ran for 569 yards and seven scores. Considering the state of the Cowboy’s offensive line, DiNucci will still be running in the NFL. Whatever happens on Sunday will paint a picture for the rest of the season. Chances are it won’t be pretty, but it will be worth watching. And sure, start the Eagles defense this week.
Trade rumors – The deadline is Tuesday at 4 PM EST. Some names that have been recently rumored to be CB Stephon Gilmore, WR Adam Thielen, WR Jamison Crowder, WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Golden Tate, WR Keelan Cole, WR John Ross, RB David Johnson, WR Will Fuller, TE David Njoku, A.J. Green, and WR Michael Gallup.What is usually telling is when player’s typical workload changes dramatically this week – either getting much more use than normal to show them off or holding players back to prevent them from getting hurt.
Tight Ends 2020 – There’s been plenty of grumbling about how tight ends are not performing well this season. Let’s take a look at the Top-10 tight ends as of Week 7 in this year versus last:
Oddly, there have been more touchdowns scored this year by the position but the catches and yards are down significantly. Notice too that the top tight ends were all doing well in 2019 but not only is it very jumbled after the first three, but that the fantasy points do not match up from the same rank. Kittle is a paragon of consistency with the same fantasy points at this point in each of the last two years. But the fantasy points have otherwise fallen.

That’s going to make Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle even more expensive in 2021. And the rest are going to wait even later in drafts.

Six points with David Dorey

David Dorey’s take on six items heading into the weekend

Week 7 is almost the midpoint to the season, and the COVID-19 minefield has only resulted in moving a few games around. With any luck, the NFL might make it to Week 17 with the schedule intact, but they’re making plans in case that changes.

WR Jalen Reagor – He is eligible to come off injured reserve where he’s been healing from thumb surgery. Hard to remember, but he was the 1.21 pick in the draft as the fourth wideout selected. He only played in two games before suffering a UCL tear. He was drafted to become the new No. 1 wideout for the Eagles, not the 6.11 pick by the Lions in 2019 of Travis Fulgham who ended up on the Philly roster. Reagor was a three-year starter at TCU taken right before Justin Jefferson (1.22).This was made more interesting with DeSean Jackson injuring his knee in the Thursday night game. Reagor was dropped in many leagues with smaller rosters six weeks ago. The next four opponents for the Eagles are the Cowboys, Giants, Browns, and Seahawks. There’s plenty of potential fantasy points there whenever Reagor is active.
WR Antonio Brown – He is eligible to come off his eight-game suspension after Week 8, and chances are that the one-time star wide receiver will get another chance. He’s been linked to Seattle since last summer and Russell Wilson is making a pitch for the Seahawks to sign him. Wilson spoke with him and said that Brown was remorseful and humbled from his past behavior and merits signing.Brown hasn’t played since 2018 with the Steelers but he scored 15 touchdowns that year and was on a six-year streak of 100-catch games. Brown is 32 years old and it is fair to wonder what he has left and if he can stay out of his own way. But chances are that we’ll see him again before the season is over. And maybe as early as a few weeks.
WR Denzel Mims – The Jets used their second-round pick on the 6-3 Baylor senior that ran a 4.38/40-time, but he’s missed the entire season to date with hamstring injuries in both legs. There is a chance that he has his NFL debut this week in the meeting with the Bills. At Baylor, Mims caught 186 passes for 2,925 yards and 28 touchdowns while averaging 15.7 yards per reception over his three years as a starter.The Jets offense in one of the worst – and probably the worst – in the NFL and can use all the help they can get. Mims was a part of the effort to upgrade the receivers that so far has been limited to Jamison Crowder and almost nothing else. Mims missed out on practice time this summer so he’s unlikely to just jump in as an instant starter, but the bar is pretty low here and there’s every reason to finally want to see what they drafted last April.
QB Tua Tagovailoa – The Dolphins1.05 pick was announced as the new starter as a surprise to fantasy owners, Jets fans and mostly Ryan Fitzpatrick who has the team at 3-3 and threw three touchdowns in each of the last two games. It begs the question – why announce it now and give the Rams two weeks to think about facing a rookie quarterback when they play after the Week 7 bye? And why blind-side Fitzpatrick?Maybe it’s just a lack of communication or the precursor to a trade involving Fitzpatrick, but the move is surprising when the Fins and Fitzpatrick have exceeded all expectations so far. Where might Fitzpatrick end up if he was traded? Tagovailoa will be an exciting one to watch and he’ll be the first left-handed quarterback of any note since Tim Tebow and Michael Vick. But why now? Why this way? Worth watching.
NFL Trade Deadline – Teams may trade players through Tuesday, November 3 (election day). The most notable players rumored to be on the trading block are tight end David Njoku, Running back Mark Ingram, Jets Sam Darnold, wide receiver Brandin Cooks, wideout Breshad Perriman, and wide receiver A.J. Green. This should be an active week for a few trades since many teams are already thinking about the 2021 season.The league has been more active swapping players in recent years and there is always one or two big surprises. We’ll know who is changing teams by the end of the day on next Tuesday. It can bring all new life to players that are currently on your waiver wire.
RB Leonard Fournette – He’s been inactive for the last three games with an ankle injury but was expected to return in Week 6. He had limited practices but wasn’t made available for the win over the Packers. Will be interesting to see where he fits in because in his absence, Ronald Jones rushed for over 100 yards in all three recent matchups and even scored twice on the Packers. Fournette rushed for 103 yards and two scores on 12 carries in Week 2 against the Panthers but was injured the next week.Jones remains the starter, but it will be noteworthy to see how many touches Fournette is given, and if LeSean McCoy and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are still involved at all. Jones has caught up to six passes in a game while Fournette was out, but that is all but certain to be whittled down.

Six points with David Dorey

David Dorey’s take on six items heading into the weekend

Week 5 and the NFL getting weirder. There was a Tuesday night game and because of that, there is no Thursday game for Week 6 since the Bills would have only had two days between games. The schedule underwent several changes as a ripple effect from Tennessee not playing in Week 4 because of the COVID-19 problem. We lost the current No. 1 fantasy quarterback when Dak Prescott made the NFL-watching world wince when his ankle fracture was shown the obligatory 85 times.

Let’s hope that the injuries can subside and the COVID-19 virus stays away from the 1,696 currently rostered players despite the fact that they are young, rich and always did whatever they wanted in their off-time.

Six things I am thinking about heading into the weekend:

Wide receivers are safe picks – Used to be that grabbing one of those Top-10 wide receivers was a way to get a safe, consistent fantasy starter in a position that is hard to get right outside of the elite players. Ends up, none of them is a safe pick.
Only two of the first seven wideouts have delivered anything close to what was expected. In just five weeks, we’ve seen knee sprains and hamstrings hit all positions, but none so badly as wide receivers.
Running Backs get hurt the most – It has only been five weeks and much is yet to happen. But most of the running backs picks have been pretty rewarding so long as they haven’t landed on injured reserve. This may be the first year that both earliest picks in the draft (Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley) hit the injured reserve after just two weeks into the season.
It is also unprecedented that two of the Top-20 running backs are on different teams from when they were drafted this summer. And maybe best of all, two of the current Top-10 running backs were not even being drafted until the final week of the preseason – Mike Davis (No.8) and James Robinson (No. 9). There’s a reason to delay your fantasy draft.
RB Le’Veon Bell – Was signed by the Kansas City Chiefs and his head will explode if he tries to comprehend the difference between the Jets and the Chiefs. It’s a reasonable question to ask – does the 28-year-old Bell still have the skills that made him a star for the Steelers? And what will the backfield look like since the Chiefs already have Clyde Edwards-Helaire?The rookie only averaged 3.7 yards per carry over the last four games but faced the defenses of the Chargers, Ravens, Patriots, and Raiders. Bell cannot play this week as he has to pass COVID-19 tests for five straight days, but he’ll be available in Week 7 when the Chiefs face the Broncos. The expectation is that Week 7 will be a feeling out of how well Bell can integrate and which back looks better. Then in Week 8, bench Edwards-Helaire because the Chiefs play THE JETS. I’d guess Bell would play for free that week.
Overall, this is a bad thing for Edwards-Helaire. It may be only a minor issue with Bell taking over those four combined carries per game away from Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, and Darwin Thompson. There is a chance that this ends up more of a split backfield with Bell assuming more of a third-down role. Or – he could look better than Edwards-Helaire and kill the rookie’s fantasy value. Week 7 results are the ones to watch.
Jet’s backfield – In the wake of Le’Veon Bell’s “squeaky wheel gets fired first,” what does it mean for the rest of the season? Well, Bell only played in the first and fifth games, so there’s not much change to consider until HC Adam Gase gone which could be anytime between next year and 15 minutes before you read this. 35-year-old Frank Gore is the primary back despite never scoring and averaging 3.2-yards per carry.Kalen Ballage has been the receiving back with only nine catches for 67 yards and no touchdowns. And fourth-rounder La’Mical Perine with only 15 carries on the year. At this rate, worth watching but keep expectations low with a bad offensive line and spending the next month spinning through all three AFC East opponents and the Chiefs. Perine is the most untested of the backs and more interesting since we’ve seen much less of him. But the Jets overall have already lost an engine and every light is blinking in the cockpit.
QB Andy Dalton – Terrible break for Dak Prescott, who was having his best season while making that pending contract get bigger and bigger. Now the Cowboys fall back to Andy Dalton who left the Bengals after nine years. The last four were losing seasons and Dalton missed eight games over the last two years due to injury.But – he’s never played with anything remotely as talented as the current wideouts on the Cowboys. And a rushing offense to support him. He lacks the mobility of Prescott but did run in four scores just last year.
The Cowboys schedule is softer than most and the only elite defense showing up soon are the Steelers in Week 9. It is easy to write-off Dalton as a major step down, but that terrible Cowboy’s defense isn’t going to stop any game from being a potential shootout. He’s one to watch for the week, not only for what he can do for his value, but for a sense of what his impact is on all those Dallas fantasy stars.
RB Duke Johnson – Have to see what Duke can do on the Texans offense with David Johnson the current primary back. Current interim head coach Romeo Crennel talked Duke up a few days ago, saying that Duke has every-down talent. He noted that Duke could figure into games more in the future, if only in response to the particular defense they were facing.The Texans traded a third-round pick for Johnson last year. And while David Johnson ran well last week in the Texan’s first win of the season, he symbolizes the Bill O’Brien regime. David Johnson should remain the starter, but Duke Johnson should see at least occasionally a higher workload. If David Johnson gets another 19 touches to only four for Duke Johnson, then likely no significant changes will happen. But if Duke Johnson gets more work in Tennessee for Week 6, David Johnson’s stock falls.

Fantasy football primer for the last draft weekend of 2020

Drafting this weekend? We have you covered for everything needed to dominate.

Drafting a fantasy football team this weekend? The Huddle has you covered for everything needed to dominate in the final weekend before the 2020 NFL season begins.

Week 1 is merely days away, but there’s still time to draft a winner, and The Huddle’s 24th season online is a testament to our dedication to making you a champion!

Let’s not waste any more time and get right into what you must know ahead of the big draft weekend.

NFL roster cut day

Saturday, Sept. 5, at 4 p.m. EDT: the deadline in which teams go from 80-player rosters to 53 men, which is the standard number a team carries into the regular season. That means if you’re drafting early Saturday, it’s entirely possible one of your players could get the ax.

You cannot change your draft day, in all likelihood, but gamers can stay on top of the latest transactions and more by following our Huddle news feed. Make sure you’re up to date on the cuts and then waiver claims, which are due by 4 p.m. EDT Sunday. Gamers also can remain updated the latest injury news through our feed.

Fantasy football draft-day rules to live by

Our annual “draft prep” series mostly caters to novice players, but every once in a while a veteran player requires a refresher on basics we may take for granted.

2) Stay sober: While it may seem silly, don’t let one draft of hard boozing affect an entire season of fantasy football. Party it up after the draft and celebrate your soon-to-be championship roster.

3) No one likes a homer: Well, except for that Homer. Heavily drafting players from your favorite team tends to lead to an entire season of hangover-filled mornings. This also includes taking a specific player over a better option just because that player is on your favorite team. Be objective.

4) Draft by the rules: Not knowing your league’s scoring structure, lineup composition, and/or bylaws generally results in utter failure. At a minimum, it translates into lost points.

5) Stretch it out: Flexibility in fantasy drafts is essential. Gamers with a rigid strategy miss out on key value due to their inability to zig when others are zagging.

6) Avoid F.O.M.O.: All too often owners will see or sense a miniature run at a position and overreact out of the fear of missing out. Always having a sound backup plan alleviates concern in this area.

8) Bye week blues: This cuts both ways — getting caught up in not paying attention to bye weeks and outright passing on talent because it would create multiple players at the position on bye. Later in the year, bye weeks are easier — not harder — to overcome due to months of roster manipulation.

11) ADP obsession: Time after time, owners get hung up on what the average draft placement suggests. It is merely a guideline, and anytime a service offering ADP compiles the data, it is impossible to weed out all variations and nuance. Use it for nothing more than a ballpark idea of when positional trends typically begin.

Fantasy football PPR rankings*

*Requires a subscription to The Huddle’s draft guide

Quarterbacks rankings

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Running backs rankings

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Wide receivers rankings

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

Tight ends rankings

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Fantasy football sleepers*

*Requires a subscription to The Huddle’s draft guide

Fantasy football freebies

Best values in fantasy football drafts

QB Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts: A fresh start, promising weapons, and brilliant pass protection will get 2019’s QB24 back on track.

RB Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins: Mid-round investment for an explosive back who could finish as a weekly play is tough to ignore.

WR Jamison Crowder, New York Jets: The 2019 PPR WR26 in Round 9 is little risk, all upside. Suspect competition only adds to his appeal.

TE Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts: Knows system, TE-dependent QB, risky WRs, stud line limits blocking need, weak TE competition.

PK Ka’imi Fairbairn, Houston Texans: A less prolific offense should mean more field goals after a down year for the 2018 PK1.

DT Kansas City Chiefs: Lost only one defensive starter after 2019’s 9th-place fantasy finish; growing pains ahead for AFC West opponents.

Biggest risk in fantasy football drafts

QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: No real OL improvements and a questionable backfield the only things standing in his way of top-three QB play.

RB Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals: A microscopic, albeit wholly impressive, stretch of elite production has to be questioned.

WR Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers: Drastically different system, first-time coordinator … mediocre journeyman or a rookie QB has to give pause for his PPR prowess.

TE Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The year off cuts both ways. What happens if his 43-year-old QB falls apart? System hasn’t been TE-friendly.

PK Josh Lambo, Jacksonville Jaguars: Increased offensive scoring prowess generally results in fewer three-pointer opportunities.

DT New England Patriots: A ton of key personnel turnover. Last year’s schedule was laughably easy, and the Pats struggled vs. strong competition.

Fantasy football breakouts

QB Drew Lock, Denver Broncos: World-class arm talent, notable upgraded weapons with a blossoming WR1, dangerous RBs and a proven offensive system.

RB Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers: The likely 1a of the one-two punch with Tevin Coleman has way more upside and showed a nose for the paydirt down the stretch in 2019.

WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: Stands to make the biggest Year 2 jump of any WR. Big Ben’s return and healthy talent around him only help.

TE T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions: Viable system, strong QB play. Monitor health status before investing, but has hallmarks of becoming a fantasy starter.

PK Austin Seibert, Cleveland Browns: Slower-paced offensive design could mean more 3-pointers after promising rookie campaign.

DT Indianapolis Colts: Shored up DL and improved on the back end, too. Exploitable divisional opponents, plus reasonable schedule.

Fantasy football busts

QB Daniel Jones, New York Giants: A new system for a streaky QB is a major concern during a pandemic; inconsistency is a killer in weekly leagues.

RB David Johnson, Houston Texans: Living off of one monster season in 2016, Johnson is officially a one-year wonder with injury concerns.

WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills: Not a true No. 1, the pouty WR faces a terribly inaccurate QB in a run-first offense — all in Western New York.

TE Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns: The richest tight end in the NFL will struggle to see enough passes to matter in fantasy will be difficult in a run-heavy system loaded with receiving talent.

PK Younghoe Koo, Atlanta Falcons: No long-range track record is compounded by a questionable offense in a tougher division.

DT Minnesota Vikings: No Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, and top three CBs from 2019 … plus a rookie starting CB. Even with Yannick Ngakoue, there’s too much turnover to warrant confidence.

Fantasy Football strength of schedule series

Passing | Rushing | Receiving

COVID-19 and fantasy football tips

The NFL has been remarkable successful to date in its efforts to keep COVID-19 at bay. That’s not to say players may not face an influx in infections once the season is under way and players begin traveling.

Be nimble and prepare for an exhausting season of working the waiver wire.
Expect stars to get put on the COVID-19 list and miss a few games. That’s inevitable.
Draft for continuity. Players on teams that have experienced as little turnover personnel-wise and within the coaching staff are in a better position to succeed, especially early in the year.
Rookies will likely struggle early and often without a full offseason program. Running back is the easiest position to learn, though.
Brace for some ugly football in the opening month. Low-scoring fantasy games may be the norm for several weeks, so taking a chance on fringe players in starting lineups could come back to bite you more so than in years past.
Trading may be more difficult than ever in terms of assessing fair compensation. Work with what you know at the time and hope for the best, because that’s about all we can do during such uncertain times.

Fantasy football best-ball gambles: Wagers of the week

There’s less than two weeks left to bet on your fantasy football knowledge in best-ball drafts.

Fantasy football best-ball drafts are a blast. My preferred league platforms for these drafts are RTSports.com and SportsHub’s “Best-Ball 10s” services. Neither company sponsored this article … I just like what they do in the space. Check ’em out, or look around the web to find competitors.

Let’s dive right into my four favorite gambles for this upcoming week’s drafting action:

Fantasy football best-ball gambles of the week

QB Drew Lock, Denver Broncos: Going in 14th round, on average, Lock is a fine QB2 target for gamers who spent an early pick on the position or preferred to wait for a tandem of late-rounders with upside. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton has been nothing short of awesome in training camp, and the short-term loss of rookie slot receiver K.J. Hamler opens the door for veteran DaeSean Hamilton to reclaim his role on the inside. Rookie Jerry Jeudy has shown the game isn’t too big for him without a formal offseason program, and tight end Noah Fant can house it from anywhere on the field. Invest with confidence in the big-armed Lock.

RB Darrynton Evans, Tennessee Titans: Evans, a third-round pick from Appalachian State, is the primary backup to Derrick Henry. The 2019 rushing champ is the obvious engine to this offensive vehicle, although it won’t stop rushing should he go down with an injury. Evans is a capable receiver and could even be featured in such a way — an element this system didn’t employ in 2019. The rookie has missed several practices of late with an undisclosed injury, so this one is a gamble inside of a gamble. Feeling lucky?

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WR John Hightower, Philadelphia Eagles: While Alshon Jeffery is nearing a return from Lisfranc midfoot surgery, he’s still going to be rusty and is fragile. The latter also can be said for DeSean Jackson. Rookie first-rounder Jalen Reagor was turning heads before suffering a torn shoulder labrum, an injury expected to sideline him up to a month. In training camp, another rookie, Hightower, has been a stud and appears poised to man the starting job as long as Reagor is out.

TE Greg Olsen, Seattle Seahawks: Reports of considerable chemistry between Olsen and Russell Wilson shouldn’t be ignored. The Seahawks have weapons on the outside in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but it’s rather slim pickings behind them. Olsen will pair with Will Dissly, who is coming off of a consecutive major injury. The veteran, 35, still has the skills to exploit linebackers and some safeties enough to be relevant. Even if the volume isn’t great, gamers could hit the occasional jackpot via multi-touchdown efforts.

Last-minute tips for your fantasy football draft

Get ready for your fantasy football draft

“Wait, the draft is tomorrow?”

No matter if you studied the NFL daily or just realized that your fantasy football draft is just about to happen, keeping up to date is more challenging than ever. Without the benefit of preseason games, it doesn’t feel like draft time. Water-cooler football banter has suffered from a lack of seeing helmets, scoreboards, rookie fumbles, or anyone “catching everything in sight.”

Not to worry. Armed with a high-quality cheatsheet from TheHuddle.com and the following tips, we’ll get you through that draft, this season, and eventually, your playoffs.

The First Half of the Draft

The reality of 2020 is that running backs are king, wide receivers are a strong second, and the rest can probably wait. Unless your league allows for two starting quarterbacks, that position can wait. Both Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes usually end up as second or third-round picks, but the overall difference is not that great between quarterbacks. Wait until the first ten or so are gone and then snap up Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Jared Goff, or Baker Mayfield. That fills your starting quarterback in the seventh or eighth round and allows you to pursue the other positions that will drain much quicker.

If there is a default pick in any round, it is running back. Expect all starting running backs to be gone after the fourth round. Grab at least two in your first four picks, or you’ll likely have a liability at a high-scoring position. If you get flustered because “your guy” was taken right before your turn – just pick a running back.

Opting where to take your tight end should depend on your scoring rules. If there are points for receptions, then decide if you want a difference-maker in the position or just accept it’s not going to contribute much to your weekly score. Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, and Mark Andrews will be the first four to go and usually by the fourth round. Kelce and Kittle could be second-round picks. They provide an advantage at the position that is almost impossible to obtain by landing a sleeper tight end.

If your league doesn’t use reception points, or if you miss out on those four players, then just wait. The difference between the fifth and twelfth-best tight ends is just a couple of points per game if you could even successfully guess the order after the first four are gone.

Wide receivers are the deepest position. There are quality players to be had through the sixth round or even longer in most drafts. You can delay them more than any other position, and not suffer a liability. But, you also won’t get any advantage and the important reality is that your league likely starts more wide receivers than any other position.

The tradeoff on waiting for starting wideouts is that not only do you lose their potential fantasy points, but more importantly, their consistency. Owning at least one of the Top-20 wide receivers will help your weekly score remain high and not suffer as many flop weeks.

Putting this all together, make a plan on how you intend to seed in your starting quarterback and tight end. I’m typically a fan of filling out the starting running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks before I worry about backing up any position… except maybe running back that would usually be my preferred flex position.

Most common drafting plans for 2020:

RB-RB-WR-TE-WR-RB-WR-QB
RB-WR-RB-RB-WR-WR-QB-TE
WR-RB-RB-WR-WR-RB-QB-TE

Having three running backs after your fourth pick is hard to fault, and taking an elite wideout makes more sense the deeper in the first round you are slotted. The first half of the draft is all about your starters. Make the decision going in if an elite quarterback or tight end makes sense, otherwise, pick the best available running back or wide receiver.

The Second Half of the Draft

The latter part of your fantasy draft will provide a starting kicker and defense, and fill out the depth for the other positions. Granted, short of landing a sleeper, these are not going to be the players that deliver your team to the championship. But they can be the ones that keep you out.

Every year, the top defenses from the previous season are taken far earlier than the rest which is in the final two or three rounds. Of the Top-5 from 2018, none ended up better than No. 9 last year and three were No. 24 or worse. Defenses are reactive and their production relies heavily on their weekly schedule and what situation their own offense places on their opponent. There is nothing wrong with streaming defenses by taking the best matchup from the free-agent pile each week.

Kickers always end up at the bottom of the draft for good reason. There is usually a minimal difference between kickers, and they are notoriously difficult to predict. But, Harrison Butker, Wil Lutz, Justin Tucker, Robbie Gould and whatever kicker the Patriot use always remain Top-10 for the last three years. Beyond them, there is nearly no way to discern who else rounds out the better kickers each year. Three rounds from the end of your draft, consider one of those and gain a small but reasonably safe advantage.

Fantasy Depth

The reality is that we cannot know the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and how it could impact NFL rosters and games. But it is prudent to prepare for the possibility by focusing more on backing up your best players. Definitely your best running backs, but even your wide receivers if it makes sense. And just because you selected a top quarterback doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to ride him all 16 weeks.

That goes back to investing in running backs. You can be certain a backup can step up should the need arise. Rounding out your depth with running backs from other teams is riskier this year – what if they too are out? This is also a year where owning wide receivers from the same team suddenly makes more sense. This will be a memorable year and the most important tip of all – just have fun within the chaos that has become 2020.

Fantasy football best-ball gambles: Wagers of the week

These are the top best-ball fantasy football dice rolls for the week of Aug. 24.

Let’s dive right into my four favorite gambles for this upcoming week’s drafting action:

Fantasy football best-ball gambles of the week

QB Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints: While some gamers may not be inclined to potentially waste any pick, especially if Drew Brees isn’t on their team, this is one of the smartest wagers late in fantasy drafts. Brees is 41 years old, and he missed several games last year with a thumb injury, albeit kind of a fluky one. Winston has as dangerous a weapons cache as one will find in the NFL for a backup with considerable starting experience. The mistakes are part of owning Winston in fantasy, but he’s a lock for QB1 production should Brees miss action in 2020. Speculative mining is absolutely in play here, too, for gamers who don’t draft Brees.

RB Reggie Bonnafon, Carolina Panthers: Similar to the Winston recommendation, here’s an opportunity to spend a 19th- or 20th-round pick on a guy one injury away from replacing the best back in fantasy football. There will be zero utility here if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t miss time, but after registering the most touches in football over the past two seasons, what’s the harm in investing next to nothing in covering your bases, particularly if Run CMC is on your roster. This one should be an no-brainer for McCaffrey owners, although there’s only pure upside for those looking to steal a handcuff.

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WR Kenny Stills, Houston Texans: Is there a late-round receiver better suited for best-ball flier picks? Stills has the ability to uncork a defense, and he’s returning to an even friendlier situation than last year. No DeAndre Hopkins opens a significant amount of targets to be distributed, and the two primary receivers ahead of Stills in the pecking order come with serious injury concerns. Will Fuller is about as fragile as a receiver can be made, and Brandin Cooks is a concussion away from possibly before forced to sit out the year. Stills posted double-digit fantasy points in four of his final six games last season, showing chemistry with Deshaun Watson in their first year together. Enjoy the late-round return on investment!

TE Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings: In the past three years, Rudolph has 17 individual games (35 percent of appearances) with at least one touchdown, and three of those contests were two-score outings. … Not too shabby for a guy going in the 18th round of many best-ball drafts. Low investment, big pay-off potential for the cagey veteran. Sure, he’ll lose some touches to Irv Smith Jr., but Rudolph isn’t going anywhere, and the offense is more than capable of feeding both tight ends. The loss of Stefon Diggs and the familiarity with Kirk Cousins makes Rudolph a total steal in this format.